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Justice

Obama: ‘I’ll Use Whatever Power This Office Holds’ In An Effort To Prevent Another Newtown Massacre

For nearly an entire term in the White House, Obama’s record on guns was a picture of caution. Perhaps moved by false fears that the gun lobby could scuttle his presidency, or perhaps simply boxed into inaction by the fact that there were simply too many other battles to fight these past four years, President Obama did nothing to hold back the rising tide of gun violence in the nation he leads. After nearly four years as president, Obama’s most significant guns legislation is a law he signed allowing loaded guns in national parks.

Perhaps for this reason, the president appeared genuinely remorseful in his remarks to the community that lost so many of its children on Friday. “Can we honestly say that we’re doing enough to keep our children, all of them, safe from harm? Can we claim, as a nation, that we’re all together there, letting them know they are loved and teaching them to love in return? Can we say that we’re truly doing enough to give all the children of this country the chance they deserve to live out their lives in happiness and with purpose? I’ve been reflecting on this the last few days, and if we’re honest with ourselves, the answer’s no.”

In his immediate reaction to the tragedy two days ago, Obama told the nation that “each time I learn the news, I react not as a president, but as anybody else would as a parent.” Tonight, the most powerful man in the world appeared like he was finally ready to react as a president:

We can’t tolerate this anymore. These tragedies must end. And to end them, we must change. We will be told that the causes of such violence are complex, and that is true. No single law, no set of laws can eliminate evil from the world or prevent every senseless act of violence in our society, but that can’t be an excuse for inaction. Surely we can do better than this.

If there’s even one step we can take to save another child or another parent or another town from the grief that’s visited Tucson and Aurora and Oak Creek and Newtown and communities from Columbine to Blacksburg before that, then surely we have an obligation to try.

In the coming weeks, I’ll use whatever power this office holds to engage my fellow citizens, from law enforcement, to mental health professionals, to parents and educators, in an effort aimed at preventing more tragedies like this, because what choice do we have? We can’t accept events like this as routine.

Are we really prepared to say that we’re powerless in the face of such carnage, that the politics are too hard? Are we prepared to say that such violence visited on our children year after year after year is somehow the price of our freedom?

It remains to be seen exactly what steps the president will take to stop future tragedies from occurring, as it remains to be seen just how hard conservatives in Congress will fight to preserve the conditions that led to Friday’s awful events. But a president typically does not start speaking about invoking his powers of office, or hint that political struggle is coming, or suggest that his own history of inaction was tragically mistaken, if he intends to do nothing in the face of an epidemic of murder. This is the kind of speech that suggests a major change in administration policy is on the horizon.

Climate Progress

Leaked IPCC Draft Report: Recent Warming Is Manmade, Cloud Feedback Is Positive, Inaction Is Suicidal

Ultra-conservative report still concludes sea level rise could reach 6 inches a decade by century’s end! Deniers duped by leaker’s blunder.

Figure SPM.6.a. Warming in two IPCC scenarios reveals humanity’s choice. With aggressive action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 with 443 ppm of CO2 in 2100), warming is modest and adaptation is plausible. With continued inaction (RCP 8.5 with 936 ppm in 2100), warming is a catastrophic and unmanageable 10°F over much of Earth’s habited and arable land — and more than 15°F over the Arctic. This projection ignores many key amplifying feedbacks, such as the release of permafrost carbon, which would likely lead to far greater warming.

The draft 2013 Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change leaked this week makes clear inaction on climate change would be devastating to modern civilization. The report finds that the human fingerprint on climate has grown more obvious, concluding “it is virtually certain” the energy imbalance that causes global warming “is caused by human activities, primarily by the increase in CO2 concentrations. There is very high confidence that natural forcing contributes only a small fraction to this imbalance.”

Yes, I know, the easily-duped deniers and their media stooges have reported the opposite is true, that solar forcing has been a significant driver of recent warming, but the deniers are as likely to be right as the flat earthers. The only question is why anyone still listens to them. I’ll repost a debunking of their nonsense below.

The draft Summary for Policymakers (the only thing 99% of people will ever read) finds:

It is extremely likely [">95% probability"] that human activities have caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature since the 1950s. There is high confidence ["About 8 out of 10 chance"] that this has caused large-scale changes in the ocean, in the cryosphere, and in sea level in the second half of the 20th century. Some extreme events have changed as a result of anthropogenic influence.

That multiply-hedged morass is pretty much the mildest statement that could possibly be made. A December 2011 study found it’s “Extremely Likely That at Least 74% of Observed Warming Since 1950″ was manmade; it’s highly likely all of it was (see Figure 1 below).

For me, the leaked draft, which has not yet been peer reviewed — and thus still has time to be watered down yet more – underscores how pointless the IPCC has become. Like the 4th assessment before it, this ultra-conservative and instantly obsolete report ignores the latest science — see “Fifth Assessment Report Will Ignore Crucial Permafrost Carbon Feedback!” Note that including the permafrost feedback would probably make the RCP8.5 scenario in the top figure as much as 1.5°F warmer!

And like the AR4, the AR5 scenarios low-ball future impacts — “Arctic sea ice area is projected to decrease by 28% for September” for the 2016–2035 period vs. 1986–2005. Seriously IPCC, a 28% drop is the scenario your touting? In fact, as we have reported, many experts warn of “Near Ice-Free Arctic In Summer” in a decade if recent ice volume trends continue.

Even so, the uber-conservative AR5 draft makes clear to anyone who reads between the lines that inaction would be suicidal for humanity, with devastating warming and sea level rise that could hit a half a foot a decade by 2100. How precisely does one adapt to that?

Indeed, the report guts the one remaining myth of those who downplay future impacts, that clouds would act as a negative (or weakening) feedback. It finds:

The net radiative feedback due to all cloud types is likely positive.

But the report fails to clearly spell out what the recent science says about inaction — for that you might try “An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts” or the recentWorld Bank report, which warned “A 4°C [7°F] World Can, And Must, Be Avoided” To Avert “Devastating” Impacts.

So I can’t see why AR5 would motivate anyone to act more than AR4 and thus I see little real-world value in the entire effort — see my November 2007 post, “Absolute MUST Read IPCC Report: Debate over, further delay fatal, action not costly“! Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.

Once again, the authors twist themselves in pretzels to over-hedge every statement with their precise (but inaccurate!) terminology. And so we learn in the draft Summary for Policymakers (SPM):

It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin in the course of the 21st century as global temperature rises.

No, really, it is “very likely” — “> 90% probability” — which I guess means, what, that the IPCC  seriously thinks there is an up to 10% chance Arctic sea ice cover will stop shrinking and thinning???

Observations and analysis of drought make clear it is already intensifying in many key regions thanks to global warming — see “NOAA Bombshell: Human-Caused Climate Change Already a Major Factor in More Frequent Mediterranean Droughts” and “Study: Global warming is driving increased frequency of extreme wet or dry summer weather in southeast, so droughts and deluges are likely to get worse.” But all AR5 can muster up for the probability of future “increases in frequency and/or intensity of drought” is “Likely [> 66% probability] in some regions” — which I guess means the IPCC thinks there is 1 in 3 chance it won’t happen anywhere! How could that be with the kind of warming we will see in the RCP8.5 scenario, which, it must be added is really just  business as usual emissions and far from the worst-case?

This failure to warn the public and policymakers echoes the great failing of their 2011 extreme weather report (see “Blockbuster IPCC Chart Hints at Dust-Bowlification, But Report Is Mostly Silent on Warming’s Gravest Threat to Humanity“).

In it most extreme scenario, RCP8.5 — about 936 ppm of CO2 in 2100 (not a worst-case in the real world because of permafrost and other feedbacks) — sea level rise in 2100 is only about 2 feet. That assumes you can figure out what this means: “The contributions from ice sheet dynamical change and anthropogenic land water storage are treated as independent of scenario, since scenario dependence cannot be evaluated on the basis of existing literature, and as having uniform probability distributions, uncorrelated with the magnitude of global climate change.” Clarity ain’t the IPCC’s strong suit.

In any case, most climate scientists expect considerably higher sea level rise, especially if we don’t act. That’s what the recent literature says — see “Sea levels may rise 3 times faster than IPCC estimated, could hit 6 feet by 2100” and “JPL bombshell: Polar ice sheet mass loss is speeding up, on pace for 1 foot sea level rise by 2050.”

Finally, if you read the denier blogs or columnists — and if so, you have no one to blame but yourself — you’ve probably heard something about how the IPCC finds cosmic rays are a major climate driver. In fact, the SPM finds:

Cosmic rays enhance aerosol nucleation and cloud condensation nuclei production in the free troposphere, but there is high confidence that the effect is too weak to have any significant climatic influence during a solar cycle or over the last century.

For debunkings of the latest denier spin, see here and here and especially here, which has an interview with the lead author of the key draft chapter.

Below I’m reposting a Skeptical Science piece on the subject.

Read more

Justice

Indiana Man Arrested After Threatening To Shoot Up Elementary School

A man equipped with a 47 gun arsenal was arrested on Sunday after threatening to kill children at a local elementary school. The Cedar Lake, Indiana man had also threatened his wife:

Cedar Lake police were called to the home of 60-year-old Von I. Meyer early Friday after he allegedly threatened to set his wife on fire. A police statement says Meyer also said he would enter Jane Ball Elementary School and “kill as many people as he could.” Authorities found 47 guns and ammunition worth over $100,000.

This incident comes right on the heels of the arrest of an Oklahoma man planning a school shooting and the horrific murders in Newtown, Connecticut. Though America has suffered a spate of mass shootings and common sense gun regulations effectively reduce murder rates, several Republicans and gun advocates have responded to Friday’s tragedy by calling for relaxing restrictions on guns in schools.

Justice

Some Are Turning In Their Guns Following Connecticut Shooting

In the aftermath of the tragedy in Newtown, Connecticut, some Americans are turning in their guns as part of local government buy-backed programs.

Residents in New York City, New York, Camden, New Jersey, Baltimore, Maryland, and San Francisco, California, sold hundreds of weapons back to the government no-questions asked, with some attributing their decisions to the Connecticut tragedy.

“After the incident yesterday, it was time to get it out of the house,” Sonia White, a 65-year-old Baltimore County grandmother said. A man in San Francisco explained, “I’ve got kids, man.” “Kids are curious. Kids don’t know any better. I had it locked in a toolbox, so I don’t know. … I just know it had to go.”

Following this month’s killings by Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Jovan Belcher, who shot his girlfriend dead and then turned the gun on himself, at least seven NFL players have gotten rid of their personal firearms. One player reportedly turned in multiple weapons to his franchise’s security detail, “telling his team’s personnel that he didn’t trust himself with the guns.”

Climate Progress

Obama To Name Climate Hawk John Kerry Secretary Of State

In the first serious indication Obama will focus on climate change in his second term, the President will nominate Senator John Kerry (D-MA) to be Secretary of State, media outlets report.

Kerry is one of the Senate’s leading climate hawks who has said he believes that climate change is the “biggest long term threat” to national security.

Of course, team Obama is known for effectively muzzling the most ardent of climate hawks. Back in February 2009, for instance, Energy Secretary and Nobelist Steven Chu said “Wake up,” America, “we’re looking at a scenario where there’s no more agriculture in California.” But one hardly hears such language from him these days. Same goes for science advisor and one-time climate hawk John Holdren.

Kerry, however, seems far less likely to be muzzled. Indeed, in a speech this summer on the Senate floor, he slammed the U.S. political discussion as a “conspiracy of silence … a story of disgraceful denial, back-pedaling, and delay that has brought us perilously close to a climate change catastrophe.” He called it:

a silence that empowers misinformation and mythology to grow where science and truth should prevail. It is a conspiracy that has not just stalled, but demonized any constructive effort to put America in a position to lead the world on this issue….

Climate change is one of two or three of the most serious threats our country now faces, if not the most serious, and the silence that has enveloped a once robust debate is staggering for its irresponsibility….

I hope and pray colleagues commit to transformative change in our politics. I hope we confront the conspiracy of silence head-on and allow complacence to yield to common sense, and narrow interests to bend to the common good. Future generations are counting on us.

One would certainly expect Kerry to not merely use his position to speak out on the issue but also to push both domestic and international action. He was after all coauthor, with Senators  Joe Lieberman (D-CT) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), of broad climate legislation in 2009 and 2010 (that withered like our wheat crop in a Dust Bowl as Obama tended to other matters, like health care).

National Journal reports:

“No senator since Al Gore knows as much about the science and diplomacy of climate change as Kerry,” said David Goldwyn, an international energy consultant who served as Clinton’s special envoy and coordinator for international energy affairs. “He would not only put climate change in the top five issues he raises with every country, but he would probably rethink our entire diplomatic approach to the issue.”

Climate hawks should be enthusiastic supporters of this nomination, which is expected to sail through the U.S. Senate (in part because Republicans want Scott Brown to have another shot at a Massachusetts Senate seat).

I’m not sure Kerry could become Secretary of State fast enough to influence the Keystone XL pipeline decision, but it is hard to believe he would not have raised this issue with the President, since a go-ahead decision would immediately undercut the Administration’s credibility on the climate issue both at home and abroad.

Related Post:

Politics

All 31 Pro-Gun Senators Refused Invitations To Appear On ‘Meet The Press’


The Sunday morning news shows were dominated by discussion of what can be done after the tragic shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, CT, which claimed 28 lives on Friday. Several strong gun control advocates, including Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) appeared on the morning shows to push for tighter restrictions and a new assault weapons ban. Their counterparts on the pro-gun side of the aisle, however, categorically refused to appear on MSNBC’s ‘Meet the Press’ to discuss the shooting.

‘Meet the Press’ producer Betsey Fischer Martin tweeted:

The National Rifle Association canceled a country music event this weekend but has yet to release any statement after the school massacre.

Justice

Lawmakers Urge Obama To Lead On Gun Safety, Call For Renewal Of Assault Weapons Ban

Lawmakers across the country pleased for tougher gun safety legislation on Sunday morning, in the aftermath of the tragedy in Newtown, Connecticut. Many called for the extension of the Assault Weapons Ban, a piece of legislation that expired in 2004 under then President George W. Bush, as a way to limit certain types of weapons that and demanded that President Obama “stand up and lead and tell the country what we should do.”

On Friday, Adam Lanza, a 20-year old resident of Newtown, used a “semi-automatic assault rifle” to kill 27 people, including 20 children, at an elementary school in the town. Responding to the massacre, lawmakers urged Obama to lead on gun safety:

– GOV. DAN MALLOY (D-CT): “When we talk about the assault weapons ban that was in place in the United States, to have allowed that to go away or dissipate, it’s the state’s ability to enforce that because guns move across state lines.”

– GOV. JOHN HICKENLOOPER (D-CO): “You know, the discussions around assault weapons and high-capacity magazines and who — you know, what type of — should there be a wait? One of the things we’re doing in Colorado is expanding the time if someone has had a mental illness hold, expand the time they have to wait before they can get access to a firearm.

– SEN. DICK DURBIN (D-IL): “Are there high ammunition clips, high capacity ammunition clips that have no value, whatsoever when it comes to sporting and hunting and even self-defense, the person could buy body armor and use to it protect themselves as they kill innocent people? Can we have a thoughtful, calm, reflection on these things? And do it in the context of our 2nd amendment? I think we need to.

– SEN. JOE LIEBERMAN (I-CT): “If you buy a gun from somebody who is not licensed, or at a gun show, you don’t have to be checked at all. That is a loophole we ought to close. Assault weapons, these were developed by the U.S. military, originally as weapons of war. And, I think we ought to restore that assault weapons ban, because, not to take anybody’s guns away from them, they have now. But, to stop the manufacture and sale of those weapons. Now. Because, look what Lanza did to these poor kids.

– SEN. CHUCK SCHUMER (D-NY): “Well the kinds of things like the Brady Law, Assault Weapons Ban, limitations to clips, making sure mentally unstable people don’t get guns, do not interfere with the fundamental right, but at the same time make us safer. Every amendment should have some balance and some limitation.”

– SEN. DIANNE FEINSTEIN: “I can tell you that [Obama] is going to have a bill to lead on because it’s a first-day bill I’m going to introduce in the Senate and the same bill is going to be introduced in the House. A bill to ban assault weapons. It will ban the sale, the importation, and the possession — not retroactively but perspectively.”

– MAYOR MIKE BLOOMBERG (I-NY): “It’s time for the President I think to stand up and lead and tell the country what we should do. Not go to Congress and ask what do you guys want to do. This should be his number one agenda….The President can introduce legislation even when it doesn’t get passed. … We got to really question weather military style weapons belongs on the streets in this day and age… And I think a President through his leadership can get a bill like that through Congress, but at least he’s got to try, that’s his job.

The Assault Weapons Ban, enacted in 1994 but not renewed in 2004, made an impact, according to the Brady Campaign To Prevent Gun Violence. They found that:

“In the five-year period (1990-1994) before enactment of the ban, assault weapons named in the Act constituted 4.82% of the crime gun traces ATF conducted nationwide. In the post-ban period after 1995, these assault weapons made up only 1.61% of the guns ATF has traced to crime – a drop of 66% from the pre-ban rate.

Moreover, ATF trace data showed a steady year-by-year decline in the percentage of assault weapons traced, suggesting that the longer the statute was in effect, the less available these guns became for criminal misuse. Indeed, the absolute number of banned assault weapons traced also declined. An initial report issued by the Department of Justice supported these findings. These findings were further supported in a later report by one of the same researchers.”

Obama supports an effort to pass an Assault Weapons Ban and has called for Congress to act in the aftermath of past gun tragedies, but has yet to lead on the issue. But now, it’s not just politicians who are calling for stricter gun legislation: a petition on the White House website, with more than 115,000 signatures, says the President should “produce legislation that limits access to guns.”

Economy

4 Reasons Why Boehner’s Latest Tax Offer Is A Bad Deal

Politico reported yesterday that Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-OH) has proposed a tax increase in income in excess of $1 million as part of the ongoing negotiations to avert the so-called “fiscal cliff.” In exchange, the Ohio Republican reportedly wants changes to entitlement programs, including cuts to Medicare benefits.

This is the first time that Boehner has proposed raising tax rates, as opposed to just revenue, during negotiations with President Obama. But here’s four reasons why Democrats should still dismiss Boehner’s supposed concession:

1) Taxes on millionaires are going up anyway. As of January 1st, taxes on millionaires — and everyone else — are going to be set back to Clinton-era levels. If Democrats want to raise taxes on millionaires, or on those making more than $250,000 annually, or to set the line at any other income level, there is no need to trade away entitlement cuts to do so. Tax increases are baked into current law already.

2) Moving the line to millionaires costs billions in revenue. According to Citizens for Tax Justice, “Moving the threshold to $1 million is costly. Extending the Bush tax cuts for the first $1 million of a family’s income saves 43 percent less revenue than the savings estimated with a $250,000 threshold.”

3) Entitlements (and other spending) have already been cut. The Affordable Care Act included some $700 billion in cuts to Medicare (without affecting beneficiaries) and the Budget Control Act (which set the “fiscal cliff” in motion) included another $1 trillion in spending cuts, by placing caps on “programs such as defense, education, national parks, the FBI, the EPA, low-income housing assistance, medical research, and many others.” So by agreeing to Boehner’s deal, Democrats would be trading something that is going to happen anyway for something else that they’ve already done.

4) No debt ceiling increase or other measures to help the economy. Boehner’s deal reportedly does not include an increase in the debt ceiling, which would set up another hostage-taking opportunity for Republicans in just a few months. Also, Boehner’s proposal does not include an extension of unemployment benefits — which expire at year’s end for millions of unemployed workers — or the various measures to boost the economy suggested by the administration.

Update

The Washington Post is now reporting that Boehner has also offered “to push any fight over the federal debt limit off for a year.”

Justice

Senator Vows To Introduce New Assault Weapons Ban On The First Day Of Congress

On MSNBC’s ‘Meet the Press’ Sunday morning, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) promised to introduce a new assault weapons ban on the first day of the new Congress, challenging President Obama to back the bill. Feinstein sponsored the federal assault weapons ban that expired in 2004, and has been working on a new ban since the Aurora movie theater shooting in July. Four shooting sprees later, Feinstein has vowed to introduce the legislation on the first day of the 113th Congress.

Feinstein’s assault weapons ban will force Obama to take a stance on gun control after many promises to address the issue. The senator told ‘Meet the Press’ host David Gregory that her ban would cover the sale and importation of assault weapons, certain kinds of bullets, big drums and extended magazines:

I can tell you that [Obama] is going to have a bill to lead on because it’s a first-day bill I’m going to introduce in the Senate and the same bill is going to be introduced in the House. A bill to ban assault weapons. It will ban the sale, the importation, and the possession — not retroactively but perspectively. And it will ban the same of big clips, drums, or strips of big bullets. So there will be a bill. We’ve been working on it now a year.

In the wake of the elementary school shooting in Newtown, CT on Friday that left 28 people dead, the majority of whom were children, Obama gave an emotional speech calling for lawmakers to put politics aside and “take meaningful action to prevent more tragedies like these.” Gun control measures have wide support among Americans, including members of the National Rifle Association, the most powerful gun lobby in the world. The Newtown elementary school gunman, 20-year-old Adam Lanza, primarily used a Bushmaster .223 semi-automatic rifle.

Update

Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) also announced Monday that he will prepare a ban on high-capacity clips, which he first introduced after the Aurora movie theater shooting.

Politics

GOP Rep Suggests Teachers Should Be Armed With Assault Rifles

A Republican Congressman suggested that had the teachers at Sandy Hook Elementary been armed with assault rifles, they could have prevented Friday’s massacre and saved lives.

Appearing on a special Fox News Sunday dedicated to the tragedy in Newtown, Connecticut, Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX) said that an armed teacher or principal could have taken the killer’s “head off before he can kill those precious kids”:

GOHMERT: Having been a judge and reviewed photographs of these horrific scenes and knowing that children have these defensive wounds, gun shots through their arms and hands as they try to protect themselves, and, hearing the heroic stories of the principal, lunging, trying to protect, Chris, I wish to God she had had an M-4 in her office, locked up so when she heard gunfire, she pulls it out and she didn’t have to lunge heroically with nothing in her hands and takes him out and takes his head off before he can kill those precious kids. [...]

Watch it:

Pressed by host Chris Wallace on why ordinary citizens need semi automatic weapons that shoot 5 bullets per second, Gohmert said that any restrictions on fire arms could lead to the slippery slope of full prohibition and said that American amass weapons to protect themselves from the government.

“For the reason George Washington said a free people should be an armed people,” Gohmert explained. “It ensures against the tyranny of the government, if they know the biggest army is the American people, then you don’t have the tyranny that came from King George. That is why it was put in there and that’s why once you start drawing the line, where do you stop?”

A Mother Jones analysis of 61 mass murders over the last 30 years found that “in not a single case was the killing stopped by a civilian using a gun.” As one leading expert explained, “given that civilian shooters are less likely to hit their targets than police in these circumstances,” arming civilians could often lead to more chaos and deaths. Law enforcement groups usually oppose state-efforts permitting concealed weapons on college campuses, citing safety concerns.

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