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2013 Academy Awards Liveblog

11:49: Daniel Day-Lewis is an exceedingly dull choice for Best Actor, but at least the man gives good, and gracious speech on a night in which the speeches have been totally unremarkable.

11:43: Jennifer Lawrence’s win for Best Actress in Silver Linings Playbook is one of the least interesting choices in the field, but at least it’s one in a field packed with interesting options. And I appreciated Lawrence’s performance as a woman who was intensely aware of and pained by the perception that she was promiscuous. Her defense of herself against slut-shaming, and discussions of the pendulum between feeling sexually shut down by depression and embracing sex as a way to feel alive in the midst of great grief is very strong and interesting. That said, I really thought Jessica Chastain’s performance as Maya in Zero Dark Thirty was remarkable, and even better for elevating one of the most original roles written for a woman in a very long time. I would have liked to see her win for that role if only as an incentive for people to create more of those kinds of parts for women, which men can take for granted, in which they can be about their work, and accomplishments, and drive, rather than about their partner.

11:35: It’s hard for me to see the Best Director category as even remotely legitimate or interesting this year given the absence of Quentin Tarantino and Kathryn Bigelow from the competition. I like Lee a whole bunch. But this seems like a very, very tame choice.

11:26: Django Unchained is too long and deeply self-indulgent. But of the movies that were up against it for Best Original Screenplay, Django was playing with a lot of tremendous difficult and resonant ideas. And on questions of race, it was a much more confrontational and interesting movie than Lincoln.

11:24: I said way back that I thought Argo was a lock to win best picture. With its win for Best Adapted Screenplay, I’m increasingly sure I’m right.

10:38: Now I kind of want to see Adele get to be a Bond Woman, instead of just see the theme. Maybe one who is essentially impervious to Bond’s charms.

10:24: Anne Hathaway wins for Best Supporting Actress for Les Miserables. Which is fine with me. I find the dislike of her entirely mysterious. But it’s a real shame that Amy Adams didn’t get recognized for her fascinating, angry turn as a cult leader’s wife in The Master. Even more than Jessica Chastain’s turn in Zero Dark Thirty, Adams played a character who was essentially without vanity, who came at female sexuality from an extreme and fascinating slant, and who was finding ways to exert power in a male-dominated environment.

9:44: Searching For Sugarman is good, but I’m incredibly disappointed that the Academy didn’t go for The Invisible War or How To Survive A Plague. The Invisible War, Kirby Dick’s documentary about the rape epidemic in the U.S. military, would have been my pick. It’s an incredibly damning movie that’s actually made a lot of change, coming up in Chuck Hagel’s nomination hearing to be Secretary of Defense, and it’s been adopted by the Defense Department as a training tool. But I wouldn’t be shocked if a lot of Academy voters were turned off or made uncomfortable by how blunt and upsetting it is.

9:22: I’m enjoying the James Bond montage, but sorry to see Skyfall get so little love. The movie was really as clever a genre riff—and commentary on the British Empire and blowback—as anything Joss Whedon does with science fiction and fantasy.

9:16: Aaaand Seth MacFarlane implies that Jennifer Anniston has a secret stripper past. Seriously, bro? Fire your writers. Which probably means you should fire yourself.

9:11: Nice to see a Hollywood spouse get thanked for the sacrifices she’s made.

9:01: Reese Witherspoon’s self-congratulation of the Academy for recognizing the originality of Beasts of the Southern Wild says a lot more about the Academy’s treatment of African-American characters as niche than about Beasts itself.

8:58: Paperman, which just won Best Animated Short, is a tremendous little movie, and a great critique of what’s wrong with most romantic comedies. And you can watch it here!

8:50: Christoph Waltz wins Best Supporting Actor for Django Unchained. It’s a great performance, not least because Dr. King Schultz is a character who was created as an opportunity to explore whiteness as a racial category, and racial solidarity, an issue that almost never appears on screen.

8:47: That the actors who are nominated for Best Supporting Actor have been nominated a combined 21 times before is…not actually an admirable statistic for Hollywood. It’s a great testament to the concentration of good roles among an extremely small crew of people working in the industry.

8:37: Seth MacFarlane bringing in the Gay Men’s Chorus of Los Angeles to sing a number about seeing nominated actresses topless was a move that came close to working. But you don’t get points for self-awareness for that sort of number unless you acknowledge that almost no actor in Hollywood is ever expected to prove he’s serious by showing us his man-bits.
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Economy

VIEWPOINT: The Debt Everyone Is Freaking Out About Does Not Exist

Between the new-and-improved Simpson-Bowles plan, Joe Scarborough’s feud with Paul Krugman, the relentless drumbeat of the entire Republican Party, and the media blitzkrieg launched by the billionaire-driven “Fix the Debt” campaign, one might think no serious and responsible American can ignore the unassailable truth: America faces a debt crisis, which we must act on immediately and decisively.

Well, not quite. The actual truth is that the debt everyone’s freaking out about does not exist.

Some of the debt certainly exists, like the roughly $11.6 trillion owed to foreign and private creditors. But that isn’t the debt anyone’s worried about. If we stopped adding to it tomorrow, the debt as it stands would pose essentially zero threat to the country’s fiscal health, as the ongoing growth of the economy would send our debt-to-GDP ratio dropping like a rock.

So the debt that’s got everyone worried is the part we haven’t yet incurred. And that debt, by definition, does not exist. It’s not a certainty, it’s merely a projection by the Congressional Budget Office. And trying to model how the federal budget, not to mention the entire American economy, will behave years or even decades in the future is a devilishly treacherous business.

For instance: one of Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) favorite talking points in 2011 was that the computer simulations CBO uses to model the economy crash when they attempt to account for the debt load in 2037. Imagine trying to model the 2011 economy in 1985. Things you’d never see coming include (among other things) the Internet, fracking, massive advances in computing power, the renewable energy boom, three wars, a massive recession, and Harry Potter. And predictions can be hard even over shorter time frames. In 1995, CBO predicted the deficit in 2000 would be well over $200 billion. We ran a surplus of $236 billion.

In fact, Ryan plastered dramatic graphs of debt going out 75 years onto everything in sight while stumping for his last budget. Forget predicting 2011 in 1985. That’s like predicting 2011 in 1940.
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Climate Progress

Apocalypse Not: The Oscars, The Media And The Myth of ‘Constant Repetition of Doomsday Messages’ on Climate

The two greatest myths about global warming communications are 1) constant repetition of doomsday messages has been a major, ongoing strategy and 2) that strategy doesn’t work and indeed is actually counterproductive!

These myths are so deeply ingrained in the environmental and progressive political community that when we finally had a serious shot at a climate bill, the powers that be — led by team Obama! — decided not to focus on the threat posed by climate change in any serious fashion in their $200 million communications effort (see “Can you solve global warming without talking about global warming?“).

These myths are so deeply ingrained in the mainstream media that such messaging, when it is tried, is routinely attacked and denounced — and the flimsiest studies are interpreted exactly backwards to drive the erroneous message home (see “Dire straits: Media blows the story of UC Berkeley study on climate messaging“)

In the Canadian high Arctic, a polar bear negotiates what was once solid ice.

The only time anything approximating this kind of messaging — not “doomsday” but what I’d call blunt, science-based messaging that also makes clear the problem is solvable — was in 2006 and 2007 with the release of An Inconvenient Truth (and the 4 assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and media coverage like the April 2006 cover of Time). The data suggest that strategy measurably moved the public to become more concerned about the threat posed by global warming (see major study here).

You’d think it would be pretty obvious that the public is not going to be concerned about an issue unless one explains why they should be concerned about an issue. And the social science literature, including the vast literature on advertising and marketing, could not be clearer that only repeated messages have any chance of sinking in and moving the needle, as I discuss in my book “Language Intelligence: Lessons on Persuasion from Jesus, Shakespeare, Lincoln, and Lady Gaga.” One of the most popular quotes in the book is from GOP wordmeister Frank Luntz:

There’s a simple rule: You say it again, and you say it again, and you say it again, and you say it again, and you say it again, and then again and again and again and again, and about the time that you’re absolutely sick of saying it is about the time that your target audience has heard it for the first time.

Because I doubt any serious movement of public opinion or mobilization of political action could possibly occur until these myths are shattered, I’ve been posting on the best work on climate messaging and public opinion analysis (see “Must-Read: A Guide For Engaging and Winning on Climate And Clean Energy” and Krosnick: Candidates “May Actually Enhance Turnout As Well As Attract Voters Over To Their Side By Discussing Climate Change“).

Since this is Oscar night, though, it seems appropriate to update my post on what messages the public are exposed to in popular culture and the media. It ain’t doomsday. Quite the reverse, climate change has been mostly an invisible issue for several years and the message of conspicuous consumption and business-as-usual reigns supreme.

The motivation for this post actually came up last year because I received an e-mail from a journalist commenting that the “constant repetition of doomsday messages” doesn’t work as a messaging strategy. I had to demur, for the reasons noted above.

But it did get me thinking about what messages the public are exposed to, especially as I’ve been rushing to see the movies nominated for Best Picture this year. I am a huge movie buff, but as parents of small children know, it isn’t easy to stay up with the latest movies.

That said, good luck finding a popular movie in recent years that even touches on climate change, let alone one a popular one that would pass for doomsday messaging. Last year, Best Picture nominee The Tree of Life was been billed as an environmental movie — and even shown at environmental film festivals — but while it is certainly depressing, climate-related it ain’t. In fact, if that is truly someone’s idea of environmental movie, count me out.

This year Beasts of the Southern Wild is an environmentally-themed movie that has won its share of awards and is nominated for Best Picture. It is seemingly related to climate change. But it hardly counts as a popular movie, scoring a whopping $12 million in domestic gross to date, which means it was seen by somewhere north of one million Americans.

The closest to a genuine popular climate movie was the dreadfully unscientific The Day After Tomorrow, which is from 2004 (and arguably set back the messaging effort by putting the absurd “global cooling” notion in people’s heads!) Even Avatar, the most successful movie of all time — $2.7 billion global gross — and “the most epic piece of environmental advocacy ever captured on celluloid,” as one producer put it, omits the climate doomsday message. One of my favorite eco-movies, “Wall-E, is an eco-dystopian gem and an anti-consumption movie,” but it isn’t a climate movie.

I had some hopes for The Hunger Games movie. I’d read all 3 of the bestselling young adult novels — hey, that’s my job! — and while post-apocalyptic, they don’t qualify as climate change doomsday messaging. And the movie has nothing to do with global warming. So, no, the movies certainly don’t expose the public to constant doomsday messages on climate.

Here are the key points about what repeated messages the American public is exposed to:

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Economy

Tea Party Governor Calls For GOP To Compromise On Taxes To Avert Sequester Cuts

Automatic sequester cuts originally meant to motivate Congress to pass a budget deal look like they may become reality on March 1. Congressional Republicans are refusing to consider new tax revenue as part of a deal; some GOP lawmakers even insist that the across-the-board sequester cuts should be allowed to kick in.

Republican governors, however, are bracing for the devastating impact these cuts will have on their states. On CBS’ Face the Nation Sunday morning, Tea Party favorite Gov. Jan Brewer (R-AZ) said Republicans should compromise on tax increases rather than let the budget cuts stand:

MAJOR GARRETT (HOST): Is it a greater danger for you to deal with these cuts or would it be a greater danger to the economy for the Republicans to give in on raising taxes? Which would you like to see?

BREWER: You don’t give me very good choices…As a governor from a western state, it is difficult for me to be honest and say ok, I know all the answers, because I don’t have all the inside baseball games, and for me to sit here and say I know every detail of what they’re dealing with there… We don’t like taxes. We don’t like increase in taxes. But we know we have to be pragmatic. We know there has to be some kind of compromise, but dang it, they need to get the job done. they don’t need to leave the public out their hanging.

Watch it:

House Republicans’ refusal to consider tax increases echoes the 2011 debt ceiling fight that created the sequester deal in the first place. That fight led to a downgrade of US credit for the first time in history and billions of wasted taxpayer dollars. The sequester could have even farther reaching consequences; the $85 billion in cuts will slow economic growth and gut essential programs in areas including education, food safety, disaster relief, and law enforcement — while doing little to actually reduce the deficit. For truly balanced deficit reduction, a budget deal would need to be comprised mostly of tax revenue.

Climate Progress

Wind, Solar, Biomass Provide All New U.S. Electrical Generating Capacity In January 2013

Wind farmBy Kenneth Bossong

According to the latest “Energy Infrastructure Update” report from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Office of Energy Projects, 1,231 MW of new in-service electrical generating capacity came on line in the United States in January 2013 — all from wind, solar, and biomass sources.

This represents a nearly three-fold increase in new renewable energy generating capacity compared to the same month in 2012 when wind, solar, and biomass provided 431 MW of new capacity.

In January 2013, wind accounted for the largest share of the new capacity with six new “units” providing 958 MW followed by 16 units of solar (267 MW), and 6 units of biomass (6 MW). No new generating capacity was reported for any fossil fuel (i.e., natural gas, coal, oil) or nuclear power sources.

Renewable sources now account for 15.66 percent of total installed U.S. operating generating capacity: hydro – 8.50 percent, wind – 5.17 percent, biomass – 1.29 percent, solar – 0.38 percent, and geothermal – 0.32 percent.*

By comparison, oil accounts for 3.54% of total operating generating capacity, nuclear for 9.23 percent, coal for 29.04 percent, and natural gas for 42.37 percent.

Once again, renewable energy sources have dominated the new electrical generation market. And once again, their rapid expansion demonstrates that the U.S. can meet its future energy needs without resorting to dirtier sources such as nuclear power or the Keystone XL pipeline.

*Note: Generating capacity is not the same as actual generation. Actual net electrical generation from renewable energy sources in the United States now totals about 13% according to data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

– SUN DAY Campaign News Release via RenewableEnergyWorld.com

Justice

The GOP Governor Trying To Save Republicans From Themselves Comes Out In Favor Of Universal Background Checks

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal (R), who has been trying to make a name for himself as a maverick in the GOP, on Sunday became the latest Republican to come out in favor of universal background checks on all gun sales.

Jindal is engaged in a dedicated effort to frame himself as a politician outside of the Republican establishment. Last month, he gave a speech begging Republicans not to be “the stupid party.” Presumably as part of the effort, Jindal on Sunday’s Meet the Press, agued that background checks are the most sensible, and agreeable, route to take on gun regulations:

I think there is an opportunity to do something here. If we’re serious about doing something and not just having a political football here, I think we can work with Democrats, we can work even with the administration to say. I think we all agree that we shouldn’t have guns get into the hands with those with serious mental illness. We propose legislation to provide more of that legislation, more of those records into the background check system than is happening today. Let’s fix the current background system.

In January, Jindal pushed to strengthen the system in Louisiana for inputting the mentally ill into the National Instant Criminal Background Check system, but the move was mostly symbolic. Overall, Jindal’s track record on guns has been to side with gun manufacturers over protecting citizens. In 2010, he signed a law that allowed guns in houses of worship. He has also voted to protect gun manufacturers from lawsuits, and vehemently opposes any regulation on high capacity magazine clips or automatic weapons.

Currently, background checks are not required on private gun sales, allowing an easy workaround for criminals or the mentally ill to buy firearms. But 92 percent of Americans think that they should be. And Jindal is actually not a maverick on the issue; Republicans have been tapping into this public opinion of late, with several prominent figures including Sens. John McCain (R-AZ), Tom Coburn (R-OK), and Mark Kirk (R-IL) assessing that it’s an achievable goal for Congress to take on.

Security

Top House Democrat To Introduce Bill Authorizing Arms To Syrian Rebels

Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY)

Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY), the Ranking Member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said on Sunday that he plans to introduce legislation to allow the Obama administration to transfer weapons to Syrian rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Reporting from the region, ABC’s Terry Moran said on the network’s Sunday program “This Week” that the U.S. faces a choice, either arm the rebels or work with Russia, and perhaps Assad himself, on a potential peace deal between the two warring factions. When asked about that choice, Engel said he thinks “it’s time” to allow President Obama to provide the rebels with direct military assistance:

TERRY MORAN: The United States has a choice: arm the rebels, engage even more deeply in what is becoming a chaotic and dangerous war to this region or broker a peace, probably with Russia, give the Syrian people an opportunity to determine their future and at least in the first stages, Bashar Assad is likely to be part of that process.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Congressman Engel is that the choice?

ENGEL: I think it’s the choice and I will be introducing legislation to allow the President to arm the rebels. I think it’s time to do that. I think the Free Syria Army needs help. We know who they are and I think it’s time we make that move.

Watch the clip:

The United States has been providing training and logistics and communications assistance to the rebels but thus far, the Obama administration has been reluctant to provide arms, instead preferring to allow other regional allies to send weapons to the rebels fighting Assad. But with recent revelations that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former CIA director Gen. David Petraeus, outgoing Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey supported a plan to arm the rebels, and now with the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee to introduce legislation backing that plan, momentum may be gaining to persuade the Obama administration to shift course.

Health

Top Republican: Obama Should Avoid Looming Budget Cuts By Delaying Health Care To Millions

A top Republican is suggesting that President Obama delay health care services to millions of middle and lower-income Americans to offset the automatic across-the-board budget cuts that will go into effect on March 1 if Congress does not reach a spending deal.

Appearing on Meet The Press on Sunday, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) advised Obama to put off implementing the Affordable Care Act’s health care exchanges that are due to go online in 2014 and the expansion of the Medicaid program to offset the looming sequester cuts:

JINDAL: Just delay the Medicaid expansion, delay the health care exchanges so they can work with states on waivers, on flexibility. You can save tens of thousands of dollars there and you’re not even cutting a program that’s started yet — just delaying.

Delaying implementation of these key coverage expansion provisions would throw the law into chaos and deny health services to millions of Americans, many of whom are at or just above the federal poverty line and are struggling with medical bills. 771,600 adults and 124,200 children currently go without health care coverage in Jindal’s home state of Louisiana, for instance. The governor has declined to move forward with a state-run exchange for consumers to buy insurance, leaving its operation to the Department of Health and Human Services, and opted out of the Medicaid expansion under the law.

Defunding the Affordable Care Act has become a popular sequester offset on the right. Last week, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said the government should protect the Defense Department from automatic spending cuts by slashing $1.2 trillion from the law. “Well, all I can say is the Commander-in-Chief thought — came up with the idea of sequestration, destroying the military and putting a lot of good programs at risk. It is my belief — take Obamacare and put it on the table,” Graham said.

LGBT

Bobby Jindal: Republicans Can Continue Discriminating Against Gays And Still Win Elections

Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) — a possible Republican candidate for president in 2016 — rejected former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman’s argument that conservatives must embrace marriage equality for gays and lesbians if they want to survive as a party and reiterated his support for “traditional marriage.”

“Look, I believe in the traditional definition of marriage,” Jindal said during an appearance on Meet The Press on Sunday, and went on to claim that Republicans don’t have to make the case on social issues to attract young voters and win future elections and instead should continue focusing on economic issues. “We lost [the 2012 election] because we didn’t present a vision showing how we believe the entire economy can grow, how people can join the middle class. We’re in aspirational party and we need policies that are consistant with that aspirational private sector growth.”

In an essay for The American Conservative entitled “Marriage Equality Is a Conservative Cause,” Huntsman — a Mormon whose previous support for civil unions set him apart from Republican presidential candidates in 2012 — argued that if the Republican Party wants to survive, it must enhance its appeal to gay Americans and the growing majority that supports marriage equality.

“[I]t’s difficult to get people even to consider your reform ideas if they think, with good reason, you don’t like or respect them,” Huntsman wrote. “Building a winning coalition to tackle the looming fiscal and trust deficits will be impossible if we continue to alienate broad segments of the population….Consistent with the Republican Party’s origins, we must demand equality under the law for all Americans.”

Polls show that most Americans support marriage equality, with many telling pollsters that their minds have evolved on the issue.

Climate Progress

Welcome to the Revolution … I Think

by Auden Schendler

There’s a taboo and terrifying thing people do in the mountains called “trundling.” It means pushing an often frighteningly big rock off the side of a mountain, then watching it roll down, bounce, explode, crush trees, and smoke off into the valley below. It is not sanctioned; it is dangerous to the trundler and to others; people who do it don’t talk about it. But it happens.

If you have ever “trundled” a big rock (and I’m not saying I have, at least not intentionally) you know that the moment it tips from massive geologic inertia to kinetic energy is both terrifying and thrilling.

That is the uncomfortable point we may have reached in the climate movement. I saw this at a rally in Denver last week, which I attended with my wife and two young children:

The first characters we ran into wore black bandannas as facemasks and backpacks. And there were a lot of them. My response was a gut feeling of panic. What, exactly, did these guys think was going to happen here? They seemed ready for the Seattle world trade protests, or something gnarly out of Eastern Europe.

I had thought this protest was about stopping the Keystone XL pipeline as a way for Obama to draw a line in the sand on climate. But there were people railing against just about everything connected to the environment, including social justice, indigenous people’s rights, and fracking. “What the Frack!” was one chant. There was a guy carrying a book on Marx, there were some homeless guys with the agenda of not being bored. Later, at the rally, a child activist (who emceed the event) talked about suing Boulder for violating the public trust by polluting the air.

Suing Boulder, one of the greenest cities in the world, seems like an odd tactic: it’s like suing Jesus for not being loving enough. (Turns out, on further research, they were suing Colorado, not Boulder.) Whatever—there were many different viewpoints, from the hobo who blessed me, to the 12 year old radical, and many of them I did not agree with. It was both a rainbow coalition and a Babel of agendas.

Despite the facemasks, the event was civil: I never saw a cop, and I heard grumbling from some of the several hundred marchers that “when we have half a million, that’s when we’ll take over the street…” and “this is the only protest march that stayed on the sidewalk…” Point being, it might have even been too civil. See “At climate rally, some signs of fraying in a movement’s big tent.”

Only at one point did the event tip slightly to the radical.

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