Deutsche Bank just released new analyses concluding that global solar market will become sustainable on its own terms by the end of 2014, no longer needing subsidies to continue performing.

The German-based bank said that rooftop solar is looking especially robust, and sees strong demand in solar markets in India, China, Britain, Germany, India, and the United States. As a result, Deutsche Bank actually increased its forecast for solar demand in 2013 to 30 gigawatts — a 20 percent increase over 2012.

Here’s Renew Economy with a summary of Deutsche Banks’s logic:

The key for Deutsche is the emergence of unsubsidised markets in many key countries. It points, for instance, to India, where despite delays in the national solar program, huge demand for state based schemes has produced very competitive tenders, in the [12 cents per kilowatt hour] range. Given the country’s high solar radiation profile and high electricity prices paid by industrial customers, it says several conglomerates are considering large scale implementation of solar for self consumption.

“Grid parity has been reached in India even despite the high cost of capital of around 10-12 percent,” Deutsche Bank notes, and also despite a slight rise  in module prices of [3 to 5 cents per kilowatt] in recent months (good for manufacturers).

Italy is another country that appears to be at grid parity, where several developers are under advanced discussions to develop unsubsidized projects in Southern Italy. Deutsche Bank says that for small commercial enterprises that can achieve 50 percent or more self consumption, solar is competitive with grid electricity in most parts of Italy, and commercial businesses in Germany that have the load profile to achieve up to 90 percent self consumption are also finding solar as an attractive source of power generation.

Deutsche bank says demand expected in subsidised markets such as Japan and the UK, including Northern Ireland, is expected to be strong, the US is likely to introduce favourable legislation, including giving solar installations the same status as real estate investment trusts, strong pipelines in Africa and the Middle east, and unexpectedly strong demand in countries such as Mexico and Caribbean nations means that its forecasts for the year are likely to rise.

As Renew Economy also points out, this is the third report in the past month anticipating a bright future for the global solar market: UBS released a report that concluded an “unsubsidized solar revolution” was in the works, “Thanks to significant cost reductions and rising retail tariffs, households and commercial users are set to install solar systems to reduce electricity bills – without any subsidies.” And Macquarie Group argued that costs for rooftop solar in Germany have fallen so far that even with subsidy cuts “solar installations could continue at a torrid pace.”

Here in America, solar power installations boomed over the course of 2011 and 2012, even as the price of solar power systems continued to plunge. To a large extent, the American solar boom has been driven by third party leasing agreements — which are heavily involved in rooftop installation.

Meanwhile, on the international scene, the cost of manufacturing solar panels in China is expected to drop to an all-new low of 42 cents per watt in 2015, and power generated from solar is predicted to undercut that produced by both coal and most forms of natural gas within a decade.

By Tiffany Germain and Jackie Weidman

Friday, the State Department released a revised draft environmental impact assessment of the Keystone XL pipeline project that irresponsibly ignored the dire environmental impacts of building the pipeline.

In response to the announcement, environmental advocates — including Bill McKibben of 350.org and Sierra Club’s Michael Brune — held a press call to highlight one of the most unbelievable aspects of the analysis: that Keystone “is unlikely to have substantial impact on the rate of development of the oil sands.” It also didn’t account for the impact on climate change and national security. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers’ own report stated that Keystone is necessary to increase the expansion of tar sands. In 2012, it noted that:

Production from oil sands currently comprises 59 per cent of western Canada’s total crude oil production. In this forecast, oil sands production rises from 1.6 million b/d in 2011 to almost double at 3.1 million b/d by 2020 and 4.2 million b/d by 2025 and 5.0 million b/d by the end of the forecast period in 2030. If the only projects to proceed were the ones in operation or currently under construction, oil sands production would still increase by 54 per cent to 2.5 million b/d by 2020 and then remain relatively flat for the rest of the forecast.

Jane Kleeb of Bold Nebraska also explained:

Tarsands does not expand unless Keystone XL is built. The State Department’s assumption that tarsands development does not change with or without this pipeline is wrong and laughable. Why would TransCanada spend billions on building the pipeline and millions on lobbying unless this piece of infrastructure is the — not a — but the lynchpin for the expansion of the tarsands. Without this pipeline Canada stays at 2 millions barrels a day, with it they get 3 million barrels a day.

With the addition of the Keystone XL pipeline, production of tar sands would more than double by 2025, leading to a sizeable increase in greenhouse gases. Estimates by the Environmental Protection Agency found that Keystone would increase annual carbon emissions by “up to 27.6 million metric tons, or the equivalent of nearly 6 million cars on the road.” Without the pipeline, tar sands production is estimated to fall flat by 2020.

The State Department’s report also made it clear that at least some of the Keystone oil will be refined and exported, thereby adding nothing to U.S. energy security, a primary reason for building it:

There is existing demand for crude oil, particularly heavy crude oil at refiners in the Gulf Coast area, but the ultimate disposition of crude oil transported by the proposed Project, and any refined products produced from that crude oil, would be determined by future market forces.

This indicates that the refineries will determine the amount of exports of refined fuels made from Keystone petroleum. There is no assurance that all — or any — of the Keystone oil will be consumed in the U.S. This means that the Keystone oil will add little to our energy security.

One thing that State got right is the dismal job increases associated with Keystone. Pro-Keystone groups like the Chamber of Commerce argue that the project would create tends of thousands of jobs, and would provide a much-needed boost to the economy. Yet the State Department’s report found that it would directly create only “3,900″ temporary construction jobs. After construction is complete, the operation of the pipeline would only support 35 permanent and 15 temporary jobs, with “negligible socioeconomic impacts.”

During his State of the Union address, President Obama expanded on his Second Inaugural address, asserting “if Congress won’t act soon to protect future generations, I will.” New Secretary of State John Kerry — a long time climate hawk — reiterated the urgency of climate action in his first major speech:

The opportunity that we have now in this moment of urgency to lead on the climate concerns… We as a nation must have the foresight and the courage to make the investments necessary to safeguard the most sacred trust we keep for our children and our grandchildren, and that is an environment not ravaged by rising seas, deadly superstorms, devastating droughts, and the other hallmarks of a dramatically changing climate. President Obama is committed to moving forward on that, and so am I.

Both Kerry and Obama will play significant roles in deciding in whether this pipeline is ultimately approved. Secretary Kerry has echoed time and again the importance of acting on climate change:

I would respectfully say to you that climate change is not something to be feared in response to — the steps to respond to — it’s to be feared if we don’t… I will be a passionate advocate on this not based on ideology but based on facts and science.

Bill McKibben, founder of 350.org, is confident that this fight is far from over, and that the public continues to oppose the pipeline. “I don’t think anybody is going to walk away from this fight, because we really can’t walk away from it… my guess is this will produce more determination in a lot of people.” More than 1.4 million emails and letters have poured in from the public to the State Department over the Keystone assessments so far. And, over Presidents Day weekend, more than 35,000 people circled the White House during the largest climate rally in U.S. history.

After the 45-day comment period, a final impact statement will be issued by the State Department. Obama must then decide whether opening up the tar sands to increased development aligns with his inauguration promise to take action on climate, “knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations.”

Tiffany Germain is a Senior Climate/Energy Researcher in the Think Progress War Room. Jackie Weidman is a Special Assistant at the Center for American Progress.

[Taking the opportunity I'm in the hospital to clear out some old unpublished posts -- JR.]

Lawrence Livermore Lab News Release

A clear change in salinity has been detected in the world’s oceans, signaling shifts and acceleration in the global rainfall and evaporation cycle tied directly to climate change.

In a paper published … in the journal Science, Australian scientists from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory reported changing patterns of salinity in the global ocean during the past 50 years, marking a clear symptom of climate change.

Lead author Paul Durack said that by looking at observed ocean salinity changes and the relationship between salinity, rainfall and evaporation in climate models, they determined the water cycle has become 4 percent stronger from 1950-2000. This is twice the response projected by current generation global climate models.

“These changes suggest that arid regions have become drier and high rainfall regions have become wetter in response to observed global warming,” said Durack, a post-doctoral fellow at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Scientists monitor salinity changes in the world’s oceans to determine where rainfall has increased or decreased. “It provides us with a gauge — a method of monitoring how large-scale patterns of rainfall and evaporation (the climate variables we care most about) are changing,” Durack said.

With a projected temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, the researchers estimate a 24 percent acceleration of the water cycle is possible.

[JR: Actually the projected warming by century's end is closer to 5°C -- see review of literature here -- which would yield a stunning 40% acceleration of the water cycle.]

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