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Must-Have High-Resolution Charts: ‘Carbon Pollution Set To End Era Of Stable Climate’

Many folks asked for high-resolution and Celsius versions of the chart I posted 10 days ago:

Temperature change over past 11,300 years (in blue, via Science, 2013) plus projected warming this century on humanity’s current emissions path (in red, via recent literature).

The high-resolution F version is here and the high-resolution C version is here.

As an aside, readers know I have scaled back my coverage of the denier blogs for two reasons. First, their traffic has flat-lined or declined since Climategate, and despite their best efforts, they can’t get any real traction on social media. Second, and no doubt related to the first, they are so darn monotonous. Pretty much every story is, “The latest piece of peer-reviewed science about climate science and/or the danger of unrestricted carbon pollution is false because….”

Science put 12 men on the moon and got them back, science eliminated smallpox, science put massive computing power in the palm of your hand, and science saved the ozone layer with its just-in-time warnings of the dangers of CFCs (that people heeded). Science builds a beautiful edifice on a solid foundation.

Anti-science delayed action on smoking regulations, delayed or rolled back environmental standards, and, now, is working over-time to stop or slow action on carbon reductions needed to prevent needless suffering for billions of people and countless future generations. Anti-science destroys life, by suffocating it in a “foundation” of quick-sand.

For those who read the deniers blogs, you probably know that they have come up with a truly inane way to try to undermine the 2013 Science paper, “A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years” by Shaun Marcott et al that is the source of most of the data for the chart above.

They are arguing that the warming of the past century the authors found in their proxy records is in error. What makes this so head-exploding is that the uptick just happens to match the uptick in the heavily documented and independently verified instrumental record. So the disinformers are spending most of their time attacking the one part of the paper we know is unequivocally is true. That is the quintessence of anti-science.

The fact is Marcott et al doesn’t have findings that are a big surprise to anyone who follows temperature reconstructions. Indeed, as the NY Times pointed out in its post on the paper, “a graph produced by Robert Rohde for his Global Warming Art Web site years ago nicely captures the general picture.” Here it is:

Look familiar? What Marcott et al added to the already imposing edifice of climate science was the most comprehensive reconstruction to date.

And, yes, that chart is by the same Robert Rohde who led the statistical analysis of the Koch-funded BEST (Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature) study that confirmed for the umpteenth time the accuracy of the instrumental record — indeed confirmed that “Global Warming Is Real” and “On The High End” and “Essentially All” Due To Carbon Pollution.

You might recall the disinformers said they would abide by whatever that skeptic-led study found. Until it confirmed climate science. Then they would have none of it. Such is the monotonous, flat-lining nature of anti-science.

Health

New York Mayor Seeks To Crack Down On Public Cigarette Displays

On the heels of his failed effort to combat rising rates of obesity by banning the sale of large sugary drinks, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is tackling a new public health initiative: dissuading Americans, and especially youth, from purchasing tobacco products.

Bloomberg is pushing a proposal that would ban stores from displaying cigarettes, which would make New York the first city in the nation to attempt to curb smoking by keeping tobacco products out of sight. The initiative wouldn’t prevent stores from advertising cigarettes or displaying the prices of their products — but it could significantly change the atmosphere in the city’s small corner stores. As the New York Times puts it, “In many of these stores, cigarettes are like wallpaper, the backdrop that every customer sees when going to the register to pay.”

But, considering the fact that tobacco kills an estimated 7,000 New Yorkers each year, Bloomberg doesn’t want customers to be exposed to that backdrop any longer. “Young people are targets of marketing, and the availability of cigarettes and this legislation will help prevent another generation from the ill health and shorter life expectancy that comes with smoking,” the mayor explained at a press briefing to unveil his new proposal.

Bloomberg has been a big proponent of anti-smoking initiatives, including public awareness campaigns and increased cigarette taxes, during his time in office. Those efforts have paid off. Smoking rates in the city have plummeted from 21.5 percent in 2002 to 14.8 percent in 2011. Despite the model that New York City provides for the rest of the nation, however, other states haven’t followed suit — austerity policies have led states across the country to slash funding for their smoking cessation programs over the past decade, even when those programs have proved to be effective.

Justice

Massachusetts Sheriff ‘Jokes’ That President Obama Should Be Shot

Plymouth County, MA Sheriff Joe McDonald (R)

Plymouth County, MA Sheriff Joe McDonald (R)

At a Massachusetts Republican Party St. Patrick’s Day breakfast Sunday, Plymouth County Sheriff Joseph D. McDonald, Jr. (R) “joked” that the nation would be better off if President Obama were assassinated.

Blue Mass Group reports that the Boston Globe noted the stunning comment Sunday:

McDonald offered a joke about Barack Obama being visited in a dream by three past presidents, who offered advice on how to improve the country. Lincoln’s advice: “Go to the theater.”

The alleged joke received “scattered laughter.”

McDonald, who was first elected Sheriff in 2004, notes on his website that he is an “avid sportsman and target shooter” and writes: “Plymouth County deserves the best in public safety, and I intend to continue to deliver.” Given the assassination attempt on Rep. Gabby Giffords in 2011 and the spate of mass shootings across the country, it is stunning that a top public safety officer would find this sort of “joke” appropriate.

A spokesman for McDonald did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Alyssa

Announcing The ‘Veronica Mars’ Television Club

Veronica Mars was one of the shows that aired before I had regular access to a television, and that because it was no longer on the air, I put lower on the priority queue below shows that were still running. But now that the Kickstarter to fund the production of a Veronica Mars movie has soared far past its initial $2 million goal, it seems like a good time to get started. The good folks at the WB still have the first two seasons of of the show streaming online, so we’ll start there. How does discussing two episodes on Mondays and Fridays sound to everyone? If that seems like it could work, we’ll start Friday afternoon with Season One, episodes one and two.

Economy

The Most Radical Proposals In The House Conservative Budget

As Congress struggles to find a compromise between the House Republicans’ and the Senate Democrats’ budget proposals this week, the House conservatives have jumped into the fray with their own budget proposal. The Republican Study Committee (RSC), helmed by Chairman Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) released an even more radical plan than the official House Republican budget, which disproportionately guts programs for low-income Americans while giving even bigger tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans. The RSC budget purports to eliminate the deficit in just 4 years and limit total discretionary spending to $950 billion, the lowest level since 2008. In order to achieve this goal, the RSC cuts non-defense spending by $6 billion over four years, while the GOP budget slows spending growth over the same period.

Here are 5 of the most extreme proposals in the budget from the RSC, of which roughly two-thirds of Republicans in Congress are members:

1. Raise the retirement age to 70. The RSC budget would delay eligibility for Medicare and Social Security benefits to age 70, while calculating cost-of-living adjustments using chained CPI, which cuts benefits by $1300 a year for each recipient. Raising the eligibility age for Medicare would force seniors to pay $11.4 billion in extra costs.

2. Reinstate Bush tax cuts. Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans have greatly exacerbated income inequality while doing little for economic growth. As such, President Obama allowed the tax cuts for people making over $450,000 a year to expire at the end of 2012. The RSC would reintroduce those tax cuts, eliminating $823 billion in revenue and adding $950 billion back into the deficit over ten years.

3. Freeze all spending for four years. In order to meet the fantastical goal of eliminating the deficit in four years, the RSC budget would cap all discretionary spending to $950 billion, allegedly close to 2008 spending levels but actually around $100 billion less when adjusted for inflation. It would then freeze all discretionary spending at that level until 2017, when the budget would supposedly be balanced.

4. Eliminates the National Labor Relations Board, the National Endowment for the Arts, and Public Broadcasting. The RSC budget entirely does away with the NLRB, which oversees labor practices, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which the budget states is a “government-supported media outlet” against the principles of “a free society,” and the National Endowment for the Arts, which is “an inappropriate function of the federal government and is nowhere justified in the Constitution.”

5. Repeal Obamacare. The House has wasted more than 30 votes trying to repeal the Affordable Care Act, undeterred by public opinion or a Supreme Court decision. Still, the RSC budget would repeal Obamacare, kicking more than 30 million Americans off their insurance and once again allowing insurance companies to discriminate against people with pre-existing conditions.

LGBT

12-Year-Old Urges Chief Justice John Roberts To Support Adoptive Families Like His

Last week, National Organization for Marriage chairman John Eastman referred to adoption as the “second-best” solution for children, including the adopted children of Supreme Court Justices John Roberts and Clarence Thomas. Eastman has since claimed the AP story  misquoted him, but NOM has a long history of claiming biological relationships are superior to adoptive ones, regardless of the sex of the parents.

The comments caught the attention of Jay and Bryan Leffew, a same-sex couple from California that make YouTube videos about their family. They responded in a touching post outlining some of the various forms of stigma they have experienced as adoptive parents, even from other same-sex parents who used surrogacy instead. Their son Daniel, who is now 12-years-old and has lived with them for seven years, wanted to offer a response of his own, so he penned a letter to Chief Justice Roberts about his experience being adopted by his two dads, which he also read aloud for all of YouTube to see:

MARTINEZ-LEFFEW: When I was in foster care, I was told that I was considered unadoptable because of my Goldenhar Syndrome. That is a genetic disorder that affects the whole left side of my body. I lost my little brother Emilio because some people wanted to adopt him, but they weren’t willing to adopt me because of my medical conditions. Lucky for me, that’s when my two dads came along.

I recently found out that you yourself adopted two kids, a boy and a girl, kind of like me and my sister. Family means a lot of different things to different people, but some people believe you have to have the same blood to be a family. You and I both know family goes deeper than blood. I was lucky to be adopted by two guys I can both call dad. [...]

I know you have a tough decision to make with the gay marriage issue, but my family is just as valuable and worthwhile as any other. It’s especially tough for you because I know you don’t necessarily believe in gay marriage religiously; lucky for us, though, you also don’t believe in taking away a right, even from people like us.

Watch it:

Health

Former Louisiana Health Secretaries To Bobby Jindal: It’s Time To Expand Medicaid

Two former Louisiana state Department of Health and Hospitals (DHH) secretaries have a message for Gov. Bobby Jindal (R): accept federal funding for taking part in Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion, or see taxpayer money go to funding other states’ expansions while low-income Louisianans suffer.

Fred Cerise and David Hood, the latter of whom is a Republican who actually succeeded Jindal — a former DHH head himself — after Jindal left to become president of the University of Louisiana public schools system in 1998, urged the governor to join the growing ranks of Republican state officials who have embraced Medicaid expansion in a Baton Rouge Advocate newspaper ad. The advertisement states, “Medicaid expansion offers a path to regular access to health care for working adults.”

The ad goes on to note that forgoing the expansion won’t just deprive low-income Louisiana residents of crucial health coverage, but is fiscally irresponsible, too: “If Louisiana refuses to participate, our share of the money that pays for this program will be used to support the Medicaid expansion in other states and our low-income residents will continue to lack access to care.” Multiple studies, including a comprehensive Kaiser Family Foundation analysis, have shown that states expanding Medicaid will receive massive federal funding for very little state input.

Jindal has a decidedly poor record when it comes to safety net health care entitlements, instituting massive cuts to state programs that assist vulnerable groups such as poor first-time moms and low-income HIV patients. Jindal has also been a staunch Obamacare critic and has so far explicitly ruled out expanding Medicaid — however, there have been recent reports that he and other skeptical GOP state leaders might be open to a modified expansion along the lines of the unique deal struck between Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe (D) and the Obama Administration.

Advocates for the poor and hospital associations have been pressing Republican leaders to accept unusually generous federal funding to expand Medicaid, warning officials that providers might buckle under the weight of uncompensated care costs without a larger pool of insured low-income Americans who can actually afford to pay their medical bills. Expanding Medicaid faces an uphill battle even in states where GOP governors have embraced it, as they must still convince skeptical lawmakers in their own party to go along with the plan.

Justice

Public Defenders Hit Up To Six Times Harder Than Prosecutors By Sequester

Clarence Earl Gideon

Fifty years ago today, the Supreme Court decided Gideon v. Wainwright, which established the right of criminal defendants to be represented by an attorney in state or federal court. Yet, as Andrew Cohen explains in a must-read piece over at The Atlantic, Gideon‘s promise has become more and more illusory in the wake of budget cuts and conservative Supreme Court decisions making it easier for defendants to receive incompetent counsel.

Cohen also notes a particularly timely incursion on the right to be represented by an attorney if accused of a crime — the Sequester’s impact on federal public defenders:

Let’s start with Jon Sands, the longtime Federal Public Defender for the District of Arizona. Last month, Sands was forced to lay off 10 employees from the defenders’ office. There were more cuts to federal public defenders’ offices earlier this month (the Defender Program budget was slashed 5.17 percent in February and another 5.52 percent last week). “Even with the layoffs, I still must furlough,” Sands told me this weekend via email. He wrote:

We have clients who need mental health experts to examine them, but whom must wait until the next budget allotment comes. We have investigators who can no longer go to the scenes of crimes, but call instead. We watch pennies so we can order transcripts. The impact of sequestration in criminal justice further makes the playing field uneven, with DOJ able to shift resources, while we can’t. We are seeing offices shuttered, and staff sent home for 30, 40 even possibly 90 days.

The specific impact of these cuts will vary from district to district — some public defenders’ offices may lay off more employees, others may impose longer furloughs, and so forth. One thing that appears clear, however, is that public defenders will be hit much harder than federal prosecutors. While Sands warns of public defender staff facing furloughs as long as three months, the United States Attorney in New Jersey said earlier this month that employees in federal prosecutors’ offices only face furloughs “for up to 14 days between the middle of April and the end of September.” A source in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, the federal court district that includes Philadelphia, tells ThinkProgress that prosecutors face 10 days of furlough — while federal defenders face up to 42 days without work.

There is a likely explanation for this disparity beyond the inference that America simply cares more about locking criminal defendants up than we do about making sure they actually committed a crime first. Federal prosecutors are employed by the Department of Justice, a nearly $27 billion agency under 2012 appropriations. Federal public defenders, by contrast, are employed by the United States Courts, which received only about $6.7 billion before the Sequester’s cuts took effect. As a result, the judiciary has far less flexibility in how it absorbs the effects of budget cuts. And this problem is exacerbated because the federal courts’ most highly compensated employees — federal judges — cannot constitutionally have their salaries reduced.

Whatever the reason for the reduced salaries for public defenders, however, the results will be the same. Heavier caseloads for already overworked attorneys who are potentially the only lifeline for innocent Americans accused of a crime they did not commit.

Immigration

Witness Embarrasses GOP Senator Who Wants To Divide Immigrant Families

The same day the Republican National Committee released its high-profile rebranding report, specifically calling for the party to embrace comprehensive immigration reform, Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) went off-message. At a Senate Juidiciary hearing Monday, Sessions called for cutting out families entirely from the immigration system, arguing that keeping families together is not in the best interest of the U.S.

Sessions asked President of Asian American Justice Center Mee Moua if a country can legitimately decide that it wants to admit one productive family member, but not another, less motivated individual. Moua schooled Sessions about what would happen under his plan to shift entirely to an employment-based system: it would rip apart families and disadvantage women:

MOUA: Senator Sessions, coming from the Asian American community when in the 1880s we were the first people to be excluded explicitly by the United States immigration policy I’m well aware that this country has never hesitated in the way that it chooses to exercise its authority to permit people to either enter or depart its borders. And we know that the Asian American community in particular didn’t get to enjoy the benefit of immigration to this country until the 1960s when those restrictive policies were lifted. So I know very well and very aware that…

SESSIONS: Well let me just say, it seems to me. It’s perfectly logical to think there are two individuals, let’s say in a good friendly country like Honduras. One is a valedictorian of his class, has two years of college, learned English and very much has a vision to come to the United States and the other one has dropped out of high school, has minimum skills. Both are 20 years of age and that latter person has a brother here. What would be in the interest of the United States? …

MOUA: Senator I think that under your scenario people can conclude about which is in the best interest of the United States. I think the more realistic scenario is that in the second situation that individual will be female, would not have been permitted to get an education and if we would create a system where there would be some kind of preference given to say education, or some other kind of metrics, I think that it would truly disadvantage specifically women and their opportunity to come into this country.

Sessions became flustered by Moua’s reply, saying, “Well, it certainly is a problem around the world.” Watch it:

Two-thirds of legal immigration is family-based, and a majority of immigrants are now women, thanks to the emphasis on family visas since the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965. Today, 70 percent of immigrant women gain permanent residence through family-based visas, compared to 61 percent of men. With 4 million people caught in the backlogs and country-specific quotas, it can take two decades for a sibling to immigrate.

Health

Restaurant Customers Choose Healthier Food If They’re Told How Far They Have To Walk To Burn It Off

Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I-NY) may have lost this round of sparring over his proposed limits on sugary drinks, but another of his public health initiatives, requiring chain restaurants to post nutritional information on menus, seems promising. According to a new study in the research journal Appetite, people are most affected by menus listing not only calorie content of a menu item but also how long they would have to walk in order to burn it off.

An online survey presented 802 people with one of four menus: some saw just the calorie count, some were given the calories and the amount of time it would take to burn off the meal, others saw the calories and the distance needed to walk it off, and some were given no nutritional information at all. People who received no nutritional information ordered the most caloric meals, while people who saw the distance they needed to walk to burn it off ordered meals that were 200 calories lighter:

People who viewed the menu without nutritional information ordered a meal totaling 1,020 calories, on average, significantly more than the average 826 calories ordered by those who viewed menus that included information about walking-distance. Study participants ordered meals adding up to averages of 927 calories and 916 calories from menus with only calorie information or calorie information plus minutes walking, respectively, although the differences between these two totals were not statistically significant.

Other studies on menu labeling have proven inconclusive, though some evidence indicates restaurants modify recipes and portion sizes in order to post a lower calorie count. This new study, however, suggests that the problem is not necessarily customers’ apathy to their health but lack of context in which to read calorie counts on menus. A menu that directly translates calories into physical activity may be the key to changing eating habits.

A more detailed menu labeling rule could have a huge impact on the national obesity crisis. The average American eats restaurant food 5.8 times per week, ingesting a third of their daily calories from eating out.

Since fall 2011, New Yorkers have already been exposed to posters warning they would need to walk 3 miles to burn off the calories in a 20-ounce soda as part of a public health campaign. Restaurants are already required to post the calories of each dish by 21 state and local laws. As part of the Affordable Care Act, the rest of the nation should soon start seeing calorie counts at restaurants with 20 or more chains. While the restaurant industry vehemently opposed New York’s original menu labeling law in 2006, they have since come around to support a national menu labeling standard. The FDA, however, has dragged its feet on releasing the rules.

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