Do you want the latest data — some not yet published — and the best post-IPCC scientific predictions for the stunning collapse of Arctic ice and unexpected shrinking of the Greenland (and Antarctic) ice sheets? Then you should definitely watch
(UPDATE: this C-SPAN video) of yesterday’s American Meteorological Society seminar (see note on link below).
The seminar is by three of the world’s top cryosphere experts: Dr. Mark Serreze (NOAA), Scott Luthcke (NASA), and Dr. Konrad Steffen (CIRES) — full bios and program summary available here. I will post their presentations when AMS puts them online (which will be here).
I have spent a great deal of time studying the ice and sea level rise issue (see links below) and still found the presentations informative and startling. It is very safe to say the Arctic Sea will be essentially ice free by 2030, and I’d personally bet on 2020 — any takers?
The most interesting presentation to me was the last one, by Konrad Steffen, who made a convincing case that the IPCC is “underestimating the rate of sea level rise” this century significantly. He expects one meter or more by 2100. The modelers are busy at work trying to account for ice dynamics in ice sheet collapse — but it may take 4 or 5 years for them to do that. When they are finished, sea level rise estimates for this century are likely to double or triple.
So watch the full video as soon as you can, since I don’t know how long the link provided above will be good.
[Note to C-SPAN: Please set up permalinks — rather than making people go to C-SPAN.org and click on the Featured Topics — Energy — and hope the desired video is still there!]
UPDATE: I have revised the link, which may be a permalink — I’ll check back in a month and see if it is.
- Arctic Ice shrinks by an Alaska plus a Texas
- A meter of sea level rise by 2100?
- Arctic ice loss is “stunning” — total loss possible by 2030, scientists warn
- Debunking Bj¸rn Lomborg — Part II, Misrepresenting Sea Level Rise
- The phrase “glacial change” needs to be retired
- Hansen 1: Sea Level Rise