The Sacramento Bee ran an article this week on how, “Plug-in hybrids promise more power, greater efficiency.”
This may not seem like a big deal, but remember this is a state led by hydrogen-Hummer-driving Arnold Schwarzenegger, who promised the first statewide “Hydrogen Highway. ” That dream has all but died, as expected, killed largely by the reality of plug-in hybrids (see here).
After many interviews with the newspaper over the years about hydrogen, this was my first one where I wasn’t the one to bring up plug ins. As I told the newspaper:
“Plug-in hybrids are going to be the vehicle story of the next few years,” said Joseph Romm, an energy policy expert with the Center for American Progress, a think tank in Washington, D.C.
The full Sac Bee article is below:
Move over, Prius, the plug-in hybrid is coming.
With a recent mandate that effectively requires major automakers to put at
least 58,000 gas-electric vehicles on California roads by 2014, the state
is prodding new technology forward.After years in the prototype stage, auto industry giants and startup
companies are investing, researching and building prototype vehicles that
can be fueled either with gas or electricity from a wall socket.General Motors and Toyota plan to launch versions by late 2010, while Honda
and some smaller manufacturers are expected to follow.“Plug-in hybrids are going to be the vehicle story of the next few years,”
said Joseph Romm, an energy policy expert with the Center for American
Progress, a think tank in Washington, D.C.Before they become as prevalent as a Prius, however, plug-ins must clear a
few hurdles, mainly involving battery technology.“The largest issues are battery cost, life and reliability,” said Menahem
Anderman, a Yuba County-based consultant who specializes in automotive
battery technologies.The 300-pound battery pack General Motors is building into its Chevrolet
Volt plug-in, for instance, can’t yet deliver its promised 40-mile range
and the long-term durability needed for a mass-market car, according to a
report by a hybrid technology research team at the University of
California, Davis.GM says the batteries are progressing, but many experts doubt they’ll be
road-ready in time for a scheduled 2010 launch.The problem: Batteries tend to perform best, and last longest, when
discharged gently. But ordinary driving — accelerating up a freeway onramp,
say — demands big bursts of power. While a huge battery pack — several
times what GM wants — can handle that load, smaller ones wear out quickly
under the strain and have problems with overheating. Big battery packs also
are more expensive.That has battery manufacturers and entrepreneurs hustling to find a fix.
One of those is AFS Trinity, an energy technology company staffed primarily
by former Lawrence Livermore Lab engineers who’ve developed the XH-150, a
plug-in prototype.Backed by $50 million in venture capital, AFS Trinity believes its patented
design resolves some battery problems. The company claims it has created
the only functioning plug-in hybrid with a 40-mile all-electric range.AFS Trinity founder and CEO Ed Furia, an organizer of the first Earth Day
in 1971 and former federal EPA administrator, is in Sacramento this week,
meeting with state officials and showing off his prototypes — a pair of
modified Saturn Vue Green Line hybrids.They’re designed to get around the battery problem by using ultracapacitors
– a scaled-up version of the devices that allow a small camera battery to
provide the burst of electricity needed to power a flash.The car’s instrument panel looks ordinary, save for two analog gauges on
the dashboard. One shows the battery level, the other the capacitor charge.While Furia’s Vue is driving at a steady speed, the batteries charge up the
capacitors. On a hard acceleration, the capacitor acts as a booster, giving
the electric motor the juice it wants, and taking much of the load off the
battery.During a recent test drive, Furia pulled over to the shoulder of Interstate
5 just north of downtown to show how the capacitors work. What came next is
clearly his favorite part of a test-drive.“Anybody have any health problems?” he said, jokingly.
Then Furia stomped on the accelerator, and the car rocketed to 65 mph.
Conventional hybrids have a reputation for being gutless, yet Furia takes
pride in his vehicle’s power. “There’s the perception that if you get an
electric car, you give something up,” he said.Furia has filed a number of patents on the capacitor design and hopes to
sell the idea to a major automaker. If mass produced, he estimates, the
XH-150 would cost $8,700 more than the standard Saturn Vue Green Line.Based on prototypes like the XH-150 now being tested on California roads,
plug-ins promise to put the fuel economy of today’s hybrids to shame.Comparing dollars per mile, internal-combustion engines are not as
efficient as electric motors. It costs around $1 for enough energy to drive
the XH-150 40 miles on battery power. Since most drivers are on the road
less than 40 miles most days, the potential savings are huge, especially
with $4-a-gallon gas.What’s more, a vehicle running on electricity has no smog-forming tailpipe
emissions, and, even when pollution from electricity generation is taken
into account, emits less greenhouse gases than a similarly sized vehicle
burning fossil fuel.Dan Sperling, director of the Institute for Transportation Studies at UC
Davis, said the next few years will likely see companies large and small
producing different riffs on plug-in hybrids, seeking the combination of
sticker price, electric range and overall fuel efficiency consumers want.“The industry is going to be experimenting for many years trying to figure
out how best to design the tech in a way that consumers will value it,”
Sperling said. “They have to figure out what people are really willing to
pay a premium for.”
Previous in TP Climate Progress
Language Intelligence: Lessons on persuasion from Jesus, Shakespeare, Lincoln, and Lady Gaga
What is the current Alarmist hypothesis for why the other planets are warming? Just curious.
Check out the cool pic:
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap080523.html
I can’t speak to what the alarmists believe, but scientists know:
1. Not all planets are warming – some are cooling
2. The sun has shown no long term trend since 1950
3. There are explanations for why other planets are warming
Always start at Skeptical Science
http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-other-planets-solar-system.htm
or my own search engine:
http://climateprogress.org/2007/09/07/fred-thompson-global-warming-denyer-and-sun-worshiper/
Why do you keep repeating debunked denier talking points? Just curious.
Joe, perhaps the evil empire is on to something:
test
or if that don’t work:
http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/news_features_20080123_electrovaya.aspx
Joe:
I’m completely with you on the importance of hybrids today and plug-in hybrids (and EVs) tomorrow.
Please take a look at the Aptera. Of all of the EVs and plug-in hybrid cars in development now, the Aptera seems to be the most real, most practical, and most efficient of the bunch.
It uses a combination of a long-life lithium battery and an ultracapicator (add a small gasoline generator for the plug-in hybrid). Composite construction is used to shape the body to a drag coefficient of 0.11 (compare to 0.26 on the Prius) and drop the weight to 1500 lbs. It’s designed to exceed passenger vehicle safety standards and is one of the few vehicles to get the top rating in a new roof crush test.
From September 2007 to May 2008, Aptera has accepted 2500 reservations for 2009 delivery. The price is $27k for the electric, $30k for the plug-in hybrid. They ask for a $500 fully refundable deposit.
The media fawns over the Tesla Roadster and Chevy Volt, but I think the Aptera will upstage both. I really think the Aptera is your kind of car.
Cheers!
No plugs for Zapcar?
“The industry is going to be experimenting for many years trying to figure out how best to design the tech in a way that consumers will value it,” Sperling said. “They have to figure out what people are really willing to pay a premium for.”
no. they have to figure out how to cut the weight and the cost down so that cars are in reach of people on tight (receivership) budgets whose current wheels have no trade-in value. meanwhile other means are built and financed, so public subsidy of individual car ownership will be at a minimum.
and even if money did grow on trees, the trees themselves are dying.
earth to journalists… hello, journalists…
or maybe everybody should “just take out a loan.” that’s pretty realistic economic thinking, too.
it’s like every individual aspect of our lives in happening in an isolation tank. this is why we’re not coming up with a plan. nothing but bad habits.
Which ‘debunked denier talking point’ did I repeat Joe?
You’re sounding a bit testy again. Sleeping okay?
And of course you speak for the Alarmists, not the scientists. Let’s not be coy.
I just wanted to needle you a bit to see what you would say. It’s okay, Joe, to think about climate change on the other planets. Scientists do. Even when the planet is very different from Earth, information can be gained that can add to our understanding of our own climate. Climatology is a science still in its infancy, as you well know.
I didn’t understand your second point, though: what do you mean that the sun has “shown no long term trend since 1950″? What the heck does that mean?
I’d be happy with a simple Zenn car if they were allowed to kick the top speed to 50 KM/HR.
An Aptera sounds and looks pretty cool ….
But if your co-pilot is a 86 pound German Shepherd who likes to drive?
But seriously, anything like a Zenn or an Aptera should be encouraged if not subsidized.
A belated PS:
Reader…do some reading….
I just read an interesting Web site (http://www.priups.com) that discusses the possibility of using the Prius to add power to the electrical grid. The site author, apparently a physicist and Prius fanatic, has done tests that indicated the Prius can generate 5-6 kW of electrical power to run external electrical devices.
Could this capability be used to provide clean backup power during times of peak power usage? Of course, this is not desirable as a primary power source, but it could add flexibility to the grid.
wonhyo: hunt around for info on “vehicle to grid” (V2G). some people are very hot for it as a stabilizing influence in a much-cleaner electrical setup; others among the pro-renewables crowd find it a little unpredictable, lossy, and costly (partly because it would age vehicle batteries prematurely). personally — it shows how many possibilities open up with a smart and distributed grid — but the penetration won’t be big enough for a few years to plan around it during a major transition effort. it’d be more like a third or fourth backup layer.
Reader:
Thanks for your fact free posts. Did you actually go to the posts Joe listed? No, you did not. Or you wouldn’t have to ask, “which debunked denier talking point” you repeated. It would be the ones the posts debunked.
Debunking, by the way, can only be done with facts … reality … you know, that pesky scientific stuff that keeps disproving your denier BS.
And if you want to resort to some luddite know-nothing stance and say we can’t trust science, go ahead. But please don’t drive a car, take medicines, fly etc. etc. or you’ll reveal your hypocrisy.
So, just go live in some Medieval pre-Baconian state of primitiveness, which would include not using your computer. That way we’re all spared your sophomoric rants.
wonhyo:
I agree with hapa on the downsides, with this additional problem: all gasoline/diesel engines are less efficient (approx. 10-15% in highway use; something better in constant speed use) than the local power generating station (at approx. 40%) use of the raw energy in the source fuel. Therefore, a Prius or other hybrid will not be a climate-warming efficient source of electrical power for the home and/or the national grid.
While it would mean an up-front investment, cogeneration of heat and power (CHP) is a viable (and more robust) alternative, which in winter heats the house by extracting the heat from the exhaust of a natural gas burning engine. While generally used to provide back-up power for businesses and hospitals, etc., there is now at least one manufacturer making a 1.8 KW generator which will provide the heat for a “std” home on all but the coldest days in New England, for example. This costs around $10-12,000 dollars over a normal heat system (hot air or hydronic). Should someone attach a Stirling engine to the engine’s exhaust, summer air conditioning could be provided for full recovery of the fuel energy year-round. Currently the maximum efficiency (use of the energy in the raw fuel) can reach 90% in the winter. This, if used by everyone using natural gas or propane, whould cut the GHGs generated by half for the amount used.
Wonhyo,
“vehicle to grid” is something that a few people are working on. Here’s one link.
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/12/17/212637/60
It might help with putting in intermittent power such as wind and solar. Have vehicles start up around a city to keep it powered if other sources are not enough. One thing among many to make sure of is that the exhaust gases are vented properly every single time the vehicle might be used.
One other thing is if large amounts of electrical power is used to charge up all these vehicles that use electrical batteries and carbon fuels to power the vehicles and there are electrical shortages, there might be a decision made by the power company to not allow charging of vehicles. The vehicles would then be allowed to be dependant on carbon fuels for propulsion which would an added help for the grid also. An example of electrical demand management.
Actually the first vehicles that are plug-in able and grid ready will be bought up by those who live off the grid who need a back up generator. I know some contractors who were wondering if with inverters they could hook up the Prius to make power for remote sites. I don’t know if anybody does that.
CA is actually not all Arnold, Joe.
Sacramento has an all solar electric utility – no wonder they want to add solar powered EVs
I retract my Prius-to-grid generation idea. While there might be limited use, it’s too ripe for abuse. Better to focus on implementating solar, wind, and geothermal first.
I’m curious about the relationship of the non-plug-in hybrids and plug-in hybrids and the supply of batteries for them. We are only up to in the U.S. about 2.2 percent of new vehicles being hybrids. If we start building the plug-in hybrids and also increase the number of non-plug-in hybrids, we are going to have huge battery shortages. The non-plug-in hybrids use fewer batteries. If the limiting factor in building more of all hybrids is the number of batteries, is it better to build more batteries for non-plug-in hybrids or for plug-in hybrids? Would it be better to have 50 percent non-plug-in hybrids to 0 percent plug-in bybrids or 0 percent non-plug-in hybrids to 25 percent plug-in hybrids? Which is better to build first?
Ronald – I think you make a good point, but it may be premature to worry about battery shortages. While lithium ion batteries are the current rage, we can always fall back on the tried-and-true NiMH batteries if lithium supply becomes constrained. If we max out our supply of nickel, we can always fall back on plain old lead-acid.
Having said that, we can make better use of the supply of batteries we do have by shifting production (and consumer desires) to smaller, lighter, more efficient EVs and hybrids. An EV/hybrid with half the drag coefficient and half the weight will need half the batteries of a standard weight, standard drag design.
The market is currently at (near) 100% non-plug-in hybrid using NiMH batteries. Adding plug-in hybrids (with more batteries) won’t hurt at this time. I suspect market forces will produce an appropriate mix of plug-in and non-plug-in hybrids (and EVs) using the various batterie technologies, to make efficient use of the supply that’s available. I just hope the market doesn’t fall in love with the high-performance hybrids to the detriment of high-efficiency hybrids.
Ronald, here are some notes on Lithium, which is the future of batteries:
First, only 20% of Lithium production currently goes to batteries (ceramics and glass: 20%; lubricating greases: 16%; pharmaceuticals and polymers: 9%; air conditioning: 8%; primary aluminum production,:6%; and other uses: 21%.)
The amount of lithium in a battery is small. The anode of a conventional Li-ion cell is made from carbon, the cathode is a metal oxide, and the electrolyte is a lithium salt in an organic solvent.
One of the common cells uses LiFePO4 cathode. Consult the periodic table. Li has mass 6.9, Fe 55.8, P 31, O 16, so the cathode molecule has mass 157.7, of which Li is 4.4%. This is just the cathode.
The lithium salt might be LiPF6. F has mass 19. Molecule mass is thus 151.9. Li is 4.5%, and that doesn’t count the organic solvent.
The carbon anode has no lithium.
When you add in the other components, I would guess the Li content of cell is under 3%.
According to the USGS, “The identified lithium resources total 760,000 tons in the United States and more than 13 million tons in other countries.”
A123′s LiFePO4 older batteries (don’t know the numbers for the “high energy density” automotive 32-series products) get approximately 108 Wh/kg. Let’s say you need 13500 Wh for 40-mile oepration. That is 125 kg. At 3% Lithium content, that is 3.75 kg per vehicle. 13 millions tons is therefore good for 3.1 billion vehicles.
I see no reason that lithium would not be recycled just at 97% of the lead in car batteries is recycled today. Thus we need only enough lithium to build a world fleet of vehicles, after that recycling can provide most of vehicle replacement needs.
Earl:
thanks much for the information … good stuff.
“The 300-pound battery pack General Motors is building into its Chevrolet
Volt plug-in, for instance, can’t yet deliver its promised 40-mile range”
GM, prior to the Sac Bee publishing date reported that the battery pack is operating better than expected. They have test versions mounted in Chevy Malibu “mules” and are getting better than 40 miles in a less aerodynamic and not fine tuned vehicle.
http://gm-volt.com/2008/05/25/do-we-believe-the-volts-batteries-cant-deliver-on-its-promise/