Karma Alert: There’s a 9% chance Obama loses popular vote but still wins election!

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"Karma Alert: There’s a 9% chance Obama loses popular vote but still wins election!"

http://www.abovethelaw.com/images/entries/drudge%20siren.gif

The site for baseball-style statistical analysis applied to polling, FiveThirtyEight.com, finds:

Obama has developed a structural advantage in the Electoral College that is understated by the popular vote margin. If we break the election down into its four fundamental scenarios, it looks like this:

  • 62.5% Obama wins Popular Vote and Electoral College
  • 0.7% Obama wins Popular Vote, loses Electoral College
  • 27.8% Obama loses Popular Vote and Electoral College
  • 9.0% Obama loses Popular Vote, wins Electoral College

Obama is roughly a 63/37 favorite to win the popular vote — numbers that ought intuitively to look pretty reasonable for a candidate who holds a 2-point national lead fortysome days before the election. It’s that 9 percent of the time he wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote that make his 2-point lead much more robust. If the states maintain their positioning relative to one another — and they may well not — Obama probably has about a 1-point cushion in which he’ll remain the favorite to win the Electoral College even while losing the popular vote.

Potential irony can be so potentially ironic.

[And yes, I did “borrow” Drudge’s siren.]

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3 Responses to Karma Alert: There’s a 9% chance Obama loses popular vote but still wins election!

  1. Robert says:

    I pity the poor sod who gets the job. By the time the new pres is sworn in there may not be an economy to run.

  2. Dennis says:

    Robert, what will be left of the economy to run will require another FDR-like effort, which will require getting us off the oil economy. We can do it, but the oil industry will fight tooth and nail. Unfortunately, they’re the one big business in the USA that hasn’t collapsed (yet) from the excesses of capitalism.

  3. MVParnell says:

    Tom Friedman has written about the problem and the solutions in his book “Flat, Hot and Crowded.” Its a good read and quite hopeful I agree with you, Dennis, it will require another “New Deal” and a very capable leader to truly lead with a ‘can do’ spirit, not a spirit of fear. FDR said: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” The oil companies and the RR has been at the helm for too long and we are stagnating in a quagmire. Its time to get out of it. Climate is truly the number one issue of our times.