Tumblr Icon RSS Icon

UK Ministry of Defence: Global warming goes on, deniers are deluded

Posted on

"UK Ministry of Defence: Global warming goes on, deniers are deluded"

Share:

google plus icon

The UK’s Met Office issued a blunt statement yesterday, “Global warming goes on,” that begins:

Anyone who thinks global warming has stopped has their head in the sand. The evidence is clear — the long-term trend in global temperatures is rising, and humans are largely responsible for this rise. Global warming does not mean that each year will be warmer than the last, natural phenomena will mean that some years will be much warmer and others cooler. You only need to look at 1998 to see a record-breaking warm year caused by a very strong El Ni±o. In the last couple of years, the underlying warming is partially masked caused by a strong La Ni±a. Despite this, 11 of the last 13 years are the warmest ever recorded.

Strong stuff from the UK’s official provider of climate and weather-related analysis, which is actually within the UK’s Ministry of Defence. The UK’s Guardian reported the story as “Met Office says climate change deniers deluded.”

The Met Office has put together an interesting figure to show that global warming has continued at a pace of 0.17°C per decade since 1975 (red line), although the decadal trends (blue lines) have fluctuated wildly.

Global average temperature anomaly 1975-2007

As the Met Office explains:

Average global temperatures are now some 0.75 °C warmer than they were 100 years ago. Since the mid-1970s, the increase in temperature has averaged more than 0.15 °C per decade. This rate of change is very unusual in the context of past changes and much more rapid than the warming at the end of the last ice age. Sea-surface temperatures have warmed slightly less than the global average whilst temperatures over land have warmed at a faster rate of almost 0.3 °C per decade.

Over the last ten years, global temperatures have warmed more slowly than the long-term trend. But this does not mean that global warming has slowed down or even stopped. It is entirely consistent with our understanding of natural fluctuations of the climate within a trend of continued long-term warming.

These natural fluctuations include the El Ni±o Southern Oscillations (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean. In El Ni±o years – those when cold surface water is not apparent in the tropical eastern Pacific – global temperature is considerably warmer than normal. A particularly strong El Ni±o occurred in 1998 resulting in the warmest year on record across the globe. In La Ni±a years – when cold water rises to the surface of the Pacific Ocean – temperatures can be considerably colder than normal. Volcanic eruptions can also cause temporary drops in global temperatures because of huge amounts of dust thrown high into the atmosphere that reduce the amount of sunlight that reaches the surface. A La Nina was present throughout 2007 and much of 2008; — despite this temporary cooling, 2008 is still likely to be the seventh warmest on the global record.

current warming is being caused mainly by human emissions of greenhouse gases which have accumulated in the atmosphere and intensified the greenhouse effect by absorbing more of the thermal radiation emitted by the land and ocean. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in its most recent assessment in 2007 that increases in man-made greenhouse gas concentrations have ‘very likely’ caused most of the overall increase in global average temperatures since the mid 20th century.

The PDF brochure version is available here.

Double kudos to the Met Office for explaining this so clearly and for calling out the deniers.

Related Posts:

Tags:

« »

9 Responses to UK Ministry of Defence: Global warming goes on, deniers are deluded

  1. max says:

    You might also want to look at a pair of articles in the most recent Proceedings of the National Acadamy (subscription required):

    Global warming: Stop worrying, start panicking?
    1. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber*,†,‡
    PNAS September 23, 2008 vol. 105 no. 38 14239-14240

    On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead
    1. V. Ramanathan* and
    2. Y. Feng
    NAS September 23, 2008 vol. 105 no. 38 14245-14250

  2. Mick says:

    The satellite data tells a very different story. If this was any other empirical investigations the lesser adjusted and more mechanically reliable data would be used…

  3. rjm says:

    Graphs and science, measurements, estimates and calculations, year to year sea ice changes etc. etc. tend to lose us ordinary folks. Is it fair to simply measure or define global warming rates by sea level rise and be done with it?

    That would be easier to understand and explain. If sea level rises, it means it’s expanding with heat and/or some glaciers are melting. If everything is cooling we should get a trend towards slowing sea level rise and eventually lowering sea levels – correct?

    Maybe that the only way you can really take the temperature.

  4. Dano says:

    The satellite data tells a very different story. If this was any other empirical investigations the lesser adjusted and more mechanically reliable data would be used…

    Exceptin’ for the fact that people don’t live in dirigibles 4-7 km above the surface of the earth.

    People live on the surface of the earth, and don’t feel the satellite temps, the non-adjusted data from which was not released for years, and when it was it was found to be wrong and had to be adjusted.

    Best,

    D

  5. AGWisnotScience says:

    The “long term trend” that begins after a long period of cooling, and cooling to such an extent that the environmental-catastrophe-caused-by-humans-du-jour at the time was that we were headed for an ICE AGE, shows nothing more than the fact that you can pick your trend by careful selection of your time period. If we begin the trend at the height of the Medieval Warm Period, you’ll find the trend is down, and we can then waive off the recent warming as just an upward blip in the overall downward trend. As the saying goes, figures don’t lie, but liars figure, and there’s no bigger liars than those trumpeting this AGW agricultural commodity.

    The real “deniers,” P.S., are those who deny that natural forces, not human activities, dictate Earth’s climate, as they have always done, and that Earth’s climate has been considerably warmer in past periods than it is at present, WITHOUT any help from human CO2 emissions. “Climate Science” is in its infancy, and those defending this AGW BS are bound and determined to keep it there. Wake up and smell the agenda.

  6. Dano says:

    Eh-gee-dubya:

    The “long term trend” that begins after a long period of cooling, and cooling to such an extent that the environmental-catastrophe-caused-by-humans-du-jour at the time was that we were headed for an ICE AGE, shows nothing more than the fact that you can pick your trend by careful selection of your time period. If we begin the trend at the height of the Medieval Warm Period, you’ll find the trend is down… [insomnia-inducing denialist drivel snipped]

    Eh-gee-dubya, you may want to cut-paste your found random denialist drivel into your own language first, then translate it with something other than Google Translator. The way you did it above makes you look like you live in a 12′ x 12′ shack, wrote your manifesto on the toilet paper, and then went to the local Internet café at 3.00 in the morning to peck out your missive (and afterwards used their sink as a shower). IOW: Commander Coocoo Bananas makes more sense.

    Jus’ sayin’.

    Best,

    D

  7. Bob Wallace says:

    Aren’t you glad that the number of US deniers are now less than those who think George Bush is doing a good job in the White House?

    Lose a few more from their ranks and we’ll have to get them on the Endangered Species List.

  8. Jim Eager says:

    AGWisnotScience Says: a bunch of nonsense, with liberal amounts of irrelevant talking points, deliberate disinformation, and outright lies thrown in for good measure.

    But hey, thanks for stopping by, it was good for a laugh.

  9. Dano says:

    Bob Wallace, good point. You have refilled a little bit into my rapidly draining tank of optimism.

    Best,

    D