[This is off topic to the extent that the presidential election is off-topic.]
If you are are like me — and I hope for your sake you’re not — then the campaign’s final days find you scouring the Web for every scrap of information on the state of the presidential race. Here’s a fascinating analysis from Pollster.com looking at the difference between polls that sample people with cell phones and those that don’t:
We know from the recent Pew report that excluding cell phone only respondents from the sampling frame reduces Obama’s margin by 2-3%, even when the sample is weighted. But how does this affect the national trend estimate, which takes into account all polling?
They present graphs of two national trend estimates–one including only pollsters that include cell phone only respondents, and one including all other pollsters. Let’s start with the others:
National Trend Estimate for Pollsters not Reaching Cell phone Only Respondents
National Trend Estimate for Pollsters Reaching Cell Phone Only Respondents
The comparison between the two trends is remarkably consistent with what the Pew Report would lead us to expect. While the trend that includes pollsters not calling cell phones shows an Obama advantage in the 6-7% range, the trend for those reaching cell phone only respondents shows an Obama lead greater than 10%.
It appears that these are dynamic charts so you can bookmark this page and keep checking in, if you are that kind of person.