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My election predictions … and yours

By Joe Romm on November 2, 2008 at 1:35 pm

"My election predictions … and yours"

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Anybody can be an armchair pundit. But how many of you are willing to put your predictions online for all to see?

punditroundtable.jpg

Simplifying the format of the Washington Post Crystal Ball Contest ’08, it is time to call:

  • The popular vote margin of victory — in percentage points
  • The winner’s electoral vote count
  • The total number of Senate Dems (currently 49)

The tiebreaker is the number of House Dems (currently 235 Ds).

The winner gets a post on Climate Progres with his or her post-election analysis — woo-hoo!

But, of course, you’ll have to beat my predictions:

  • 7.5% (for Obama)
  • 367
  • 57 Ds

House: 260 Ds

The formula for weighting will be 40, 15, 25, 10 — the error of each of the four predicted numbers will be multiped by those weightings, then the total will be summed and averaged. Lowest score wins. [And I'm gonna call this Wednesday night, even if some races are headed for recount.]

May the best pundit win!

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33 Responses to My election predictions … and yours

  1. Magnus W says:

    10.1%
    370
    59 Ds
    265

  2. Dana says:

    Popular: 7% Obama

    Electoral: 364 Obama

    Senate: 57 Dems

    House: 258 Dems

  3. Joe Galliani says:

    * 8% (for Obama)
    * 376 electoral votes
    * 58 Ds
    * House: 264 Ds

  4. john says:

    6.5% Obama
    349 electoral votes
    59 Dems/Senate
    268 Dems/House

  5. Irving The Duck says:

    Popular: 8% Obama

    Electoral: 353 Obama

    Senate: 59 Dems

    House: 268 Dems

    I’m assuming everyone has underestipulated the enthusiasm in the Obama camp.

  6. Ken B says:

    * 5.5% Obama
    * 340 EVs
    * 55 Democrats (not counting 2 Independents)
    * House: 250 Ds

    I abdicate any analysis to fivethirtyeight.com, where I got almost all my numbers.

  7. Costas Skarlatos says:

    Popular: 16% Obama

    Electoral: 403 Obama

    Senate: 58 Dems

    House: 270 Dems

    I predict a big landslide for Obama, as enthusiasm is huge, the groundgame is the best ever, and many republicans will stay home when they see the huge lines at the polls. The big margin is due to huge turnouts in the blue states like California and New York.

  8. Brian M says:

    Popular: 5.1% Obama

    Electoral: 317 Obama

    Senate: 58 Dems (59 including Lieberman in the voting block)

    House: 257 Dems

  9. Hal C says:

    6.7%
    364 EVs
    59 Ds (including 2 indies)
    258 House Ds

    Democratic ground operation will deserve a lot of credit and I hope it gets it.

  10. t dude says:

    53% Obama

    350 E votes

    58 Sen Dems

    250 House Dems

  11. Niel Bowerman says:

    Popular: 5.3% Obama
    326 EVs
    55 Democrats
    253 House Dems

  12. John Hollenberg says:

    Popular – 7% Obama
    Electoral – 354 Obama
    Senate – 58 democrats
    House – 258 democrats

  13. alex says:

    Joe, what are you going to write about once Obama is in the White House?

  14. Justin says:

    Popular: 6.5% Obama

    Electoral: 356 Obama

    Senate: 58 Dems

    House: 260 Dems

  15. Lou Grinzo says:

    7.5% (Obama)
    345 Electoral votes
    57 Senators
    265 House Members

  16. Karen Nyhus says:

    Hi Joe:

    I know this isn’t playing by the rules, but I write with the spirit and intentions of an ally. I see few reasons to expect the GOP to play fair with the election results, when I believe the last two presidential elections were stolen. If I thought we had a real election, I’d jump right in there and wager — I like games. But I don’t, so I think it’s a rather futile exercise: I don’t think we get real national elections data any more in the US.

    Of course I dearly hope I’m wrong, either because Obama’s lead is too great to fake, or the GOP realizes it’s to their political benefit to let this election go, having so thoroughly devastated the country, and nicely lined their pockets on the way out. But the signs from early voting (long lines – already?!) and votes flipping – curiously not so much from McCain as from Obama – the supposed ‘calibration’ issue – lead me to put a lot of cred in Mark Crisipin Miller’s analysis of the setup: see http://www.democracynow.org/2008/10/22/votes (note: Miller claims Kerry told him vehemently that he, Kerry, believes the vote was stolen in 2004).

    The GOP has successfully propagated the offense-as-defense strategy of blaming ACORN for voter ‘fraud’ while they’re purging the rolls and confronting and confusing voters about who, where and when to vote. They even have the post-election cover story, the supposed “Bradley effect” (wherein racist voters say they’ll vote for Obama but then don’t actually do so) set up to explain the discrepancies between polls and results which statistics won’t otherwise be able to do. And of course, with electronic voting machines, in many places there will simply be no way to get a verifiable recount.

    Again, I hope I’m wrong this time, and would be happy to be publicly refuted/reassured, but this is why I think betting may not be meaningful. Instead, my focus is on election protection. I plan to:

    (1) vote early;
    (2) monitor with cell phone camera in hand;
    (3) record and twitter any discrepancies I witness;
    (4) provide election protection help as requested by CREDO Mobile;
    (5) show up at my federal building at 5 pm on Wed if the results seem wrong.

    For action options, see Code Pink: http://codepinkaction.org/article.php?id=4423

  17. Peter Wood says:

    7.5% Obama
    353 EVs
    59 Democrat Senate seats
    265 Democrat House seats

  18. Paul K says:

    3% (McCain)
    274 EV
    57 Democratic Senators
    252 Democratic House members

  19. PrajK says:

    5.6% (Obama)
    310 EV
    54 Democratic Senators
    253 Democratic House members

  20. 9.9% >McC in popular vote
    372 EVs
    59 D senators + 2 indy
    255 D House

  21. johninoregon says:

    Oops. I neglected to enter a House total, so here is my revised set of predictions:

    8.5 percent (for Obama)
    388
    59 Ds (Senate)
    265 Ds (House)

  22. jorleh says:

    3.3 for Obama
    305
    55 Dems
    250 Dems

  23. Juan Santos says:

    AND THE WINNER IS —– MR.”CLEAN”—
    PEAAAABODYYY COALLLL!!!!

    PERCENT 11 degrees centigrade

    THE VOTES THAT REALLY COUNT: 600ppm

    SENATE Ds : Peabody gets ALL of them!!!!

    HOUSE Ds (see above)

    to be really on target, you ALWAYS gotta think outside the box. I submit my prediction and assert flatly that it has a 0% margin of error.

  24. ken levenson says:

    +10%
    311 EVs
    58 Dem Senators
    258 Dem Reps

  25. ken levenson says:

    Paul K,
    What states will McCain win to hit 274?

  26. Joe Scordato says:

    Obama by 9%

    EC 396 – 148

    Senate 60 caucus with the Dems

    House 269-166

  27. Joe Scordato says:

    Obama by 9%

    EC 396-142

    Senate: Democratic caucus will be 60, unless they dump Lieberman, then 59

    House: 269-166

  28. Josh Nelson says:

    6.1% (for Obama)
    367
    59 Ds
    House: 265 Ds

  29. Paul K says:

    ken levenson,
    Looking at the board, I figure my best shot at winning the guest post contest is to “go the other way”. I’m glad that no matter the outcome, the discussion will not be on whether to strive for zero carbon, but how.

  30. Daniel says:

    5.9 % for obama
    353-185
    58 senate seats (including Lieberman and Sanders)
    262 house seats

  31. Brendan says:

    7% Obama
    368
    59 dems (including 2-Is)
    255 house dems

  32. Richard says:

    11.3%
    379 – 159
    58 Senate Seats… (including Independents)
    264 House

    All in favor of the Democrats