"My election predictions … and yours"
Anybody can be an armchair pundit. But how many of you are willing to put your predictions online for all to see?
Simplifying the format of the Washington Post Crystal Ball Contest ’08, it is time to call:
- The popular vote margin of victory — in percentage points
- The winner’s electoral vote count
- The total number of Senate Dems (currently 49)
The tiebreaker is the number of House Dems (currently 235 Ds).
The winner gets a post on Climate Progres with his or her post-election analysis — woo-hoo!
But, of course, you’ll have to beat my predictions:
- 7.5% (for Obama)
- 57 Ds
House: 260 Ds
The formula for weighting will be 40, 15, 25, 10 — the error of each of the four predicted numbers will be multiped by those weightings, then the total will be summed and averaged. Lowest score wins. [And I’m gonna call this Wednesday night, even if some races are headed for recount.]
May the best pundit win!