"And the winner of the Climate Progress political pundit award for calling the 2008 election is …"
… in the tradition of American Idol, let me hold off the winner’s name until I review the contest and the runners-up.
First off, my apology for the delay, but I was waiting for the Minnesota Senate race to be called. As it turned out, though, the winner and the runners-up all had the same exact call — 57 Senate Dems (plus 2 Inds).
The contest was to predict
- The popular vote margin of victory — in percentage points
- The winner’s electoral vote count
- The total number of Senate Dems (currently 49)
- The number of House Dems (currently 235 Ds).
The actual final numbers were:
I was the second runner up (by a nose) for these predictions:
- 7.5% (for Obama)
- 57 Ds
- 260 Ds
Let this serve as a permalink — but not actually much scientific evidence — for anyone who doubts the energy and climate predictions on Climate Progress.
The first runner up was…
Hal C, with this call:
- 364 EVs
- 59 Ds (including 2 indies)
- 258 House Ds
But the winner and official Climate Progress pundit of 2008 is Dana:
Congrats to Dana.
She wins a post on Climate Progress — estimated cash value for tax purposes is $0.02.
[Note: The formula for weighting was 40, 15, 25, 10 -- the error of each of the four predicted numbers were multiped by those weightings, then the total was summed and averaged. Lowest score won.]