I have been blogging that we won’t see the U.S.’s big cap-and-trade bill until next year (see “Boxer makes clear U.S. won’t pass climate bill this year“). And I’ve argued that Obama can get a better climate bill in 2010. At least one climate wonk, however, disagrees (see “I just learned two shocking things“).
So now I want to hear from you — wonk or not. On what day will Obama sign his big climate bill?
I’m going to pick Earth Day next year — April 22, 2010, although I doubt the GOP would accommodate such symbolism and frankly a climate bill isn’t about saving the Earth, it’s about saving the next 50 generations from irreversible Hell and High Water. Hmm, I’m already starting to talk myself out of that date….
Here’s something to factor in to your
guess expert projection. E&E Daily (subs. req’d) reported Wednesday:
In the aftermath of that floor debate, several top Senate Democrats said they wanted a larger piece of the next climate bill, including Energy and Natural Resources Chairman Jeff Bingman (D-N.M.) and Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.).
And it is looking like that is exactly what will happen as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said yesterday that he expected to see multiple panels engage this year on climate change legislation.
“All of those committees, especially my old committee, EPW, have an important role to play for the Senate to produce a sound cap-and-trade bill that meets the president’s emission reductions objectives,” Reid wrote in an e-mail to E&E Daily.
So this has to get through multiple Senate committees, pass the full Senate, be reconciled with whatever comes out of the House, and then pass both House and Senate again, and finally end up on Barack Obama’s desk.
As a tiebreaker, what fraction of the 2025 emissions allowances in the final bill can be covered by rip-offsets? Note that in Boxer-Lieberman-Warner it was a staggering 30% (see “Boxer bill update: Probably no U.S. CO2 emissions cut until after 2025“). The USCAP rip-offset figure is similar.
I’m gonna say 15%, but that is mostly wishful thinking. It should, of course, be 10% or lower by then.
The winner, as always, gets a blog post on Climate Progress.