Contest: On what day will Obama sign a climate bill?

I have been blogging that we won’t see the U.S.’s big cap-and-trade bill until next year (see “Boxer makes clear U.S. won’t pass climate bill this year“). And I’ve argued that Obama can get a better climate bill in 2010. At least one climate wonk, however, disagrees (see “I just learned two shocking things“).

So now I want to hear from you — wonk or not. On what day will Obama sign his big climate bill?

I’m going to pick Earth Day next year — April 22, 2010, although I doubt the GOP would accommodate such symbolism and frankly a climate bill isn’t about saving the Earth, it’s about saving the next 50 generations from irreversible Hell and High Water. Hmm, I’m already starting to talk myself out of that date….

Here’s something to factor in to your guess expert projection. E&E Daily (subs. req’d) reported Wednesday:

In the aftermath of that floor debate, several top Senate Democrats said they wanted a larger piece of the next climate bill, including Energy and Natural Resources Chairman Jeff Bingman (D-N.M.) and Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.).

And it is looking like that is exactly what will happen as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said yesterday that he expected to see multiple panels engage this year on climate change legislation.

“All of those committees, especially my old committee, EPW, have an important role to play for the Senate to produce a sound cap-and-trade bill that meets the president’s emission reductions objectives,” Reid wrote in an e-mail to E&E Daily.

So this has to get through multiple Senate committees, pass the full Senate, be reconciled with whatever comes out of the House, and then pass both House and Senate again, and finally end up on Barack Obama’s desk.

As a tiebreaker, what fraction of the 2025 emissions allowances in the final bill can be covered by rip-offsets? Note that in Boxer-Lieberman-Warner it was a staggering 30% (see “Boxer bill update: Probably no U.S. CO2 emissions cut until after 2025“). The USCAP rip-offset figure is similar.

I’m gonna say 15%, but that is mostly wishful thinking. It should, of course, be 10% or lower by then.

The winner, as always, gets a blog post on Climate Progress.

9 Responses to Contest: On what day will Obama sign a climate bill?

  1. Stuart says:

    May 1, 2010 (May Day – watch the heads explode as the commie plot unfolds!)

  2. John McCormick says:

    Assuming the Democratic Party holds on to its majority in the House and Senate in the 112th and 113th Congress, the multiple Senate Committee jurisdiction process will report out at least two bills that may or may not mirror the House version but no Senate legislation will be able to garner the 60+ votes needed for passage. If the Republicans pick up a surprising number of Senate seats in the 2010 election (due, in part to voter anger at a worsening economy) the prospect of Senate passage sinks below the horizon.

    If however, the Obama Administation led by Secretary Clinton and her CC envoy Todd Sterling are tasked to negotiate a mutually acceptable CC agreement with China, (one that sets limits and timetables) the legislative process will be swept along by that tidal wave of public acceptance of a US bilateral climate treaty with China. The Senate will get in line and President Obama, in his second term, will sign the House and Senate Conference Report on September 20, 2013.

    John Mccormick

  3. Brewster says:

    I’ll pick March 31, 2010, for no particular reason…

    Off the topic, how many noticed on the Accuweather site that Mark Paquette, one of Inhofe’s 650 “denier scientists” has posted a long article stating that he DOES believe in AGW…

    What are the odds that Inhofe will take him off the list?

  4. albert says:

    I’ll pick August 29, 2010. The anniversary of Katrina’s landfall in New Orleans. I hope it’s much earlier. I wish I thought they would get something passed earlier, but the way things have been going….

    I’ll go all rosy on the tie-breaker though, and say 0%, just for fun.

  5. JKDC says:

    Here’s hoping your ad revenue allows you to keep the blog going by the time I collect the prize, Joe!

    Circle the date: Monday, October 1, 2012. A long ways away. Gonna need to get a major cap and trade law done before the end of his first term, but it’ll take a handful of new Senators coming in January 2011 to help Obama make it happen. Even then it’ll be bogged down until right before the next Presidential election. At that point the rip-offsets will be seen for what they are and will come down to a mere 12%. That’s the good news.

    The bad news there’s gonna be load of miffed folks in the world attending COPs 15, 16, 17 though…

  6. Erik S.G. says:

    July 4, 2010. Appropriate symbolism which moves off the narrower frame provided by April 22nd.

  7. Karl says:

    April 12th, 2010. About 11 months after signing an energy bill which will include decoupling and Markey’s RES and energy efficiency standards among other things.

  8. The ides of March 2009 [March 15]. This is wishful thinking as far as a GOOD bill is concerned. Nothing will be done about rip-offsets this year. The GOOD bill won’t be signed until the ides of March [March 16] 2013, in Obama’s second term when he can come out of the closet and show us his real self. The March 16, 2013 bill will have zero rip-offsets and will make coal fired power plants illegal by 2015, because this is what we need.

  9. J4zonian says:

    Huh? I thought the idea of environmentalism was to save all of Nature, including humans. How is that different from the idea of avoiding Global Climate Catastrophe?

    New slogan? “It’s the biosphere, stupid!”

    I’m with you, Joseph: not just betting on but pushing for Earth Day 2010. Actually pushing for something long before, but if that doesn’t work, then Earth Day, April 22 will have to do. John Muir’s birthday+1.

    Can’t stomach the last post. Edward! Finally we see all the people who have projected their own hopes and desires onto Obama being forced to confront the reality of his corporate-right centrism, so they will finally stop hero-worshipping and counting on a saviour… so they’ll actually do it the only way it will work in this corporate country–by their own pot-beating and mass civil disobedience. Now you want to give them more false hope and put off the days of action for another 4 years? Please! Help our survival, don’t hinder it.