Climate

Must-see NASA figures compare 2009 to the two hottest years on record: 2005 and 2007

NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies posted these fascinating figures last week (click for PDF).  Yes, the one place in the world where it warmed the least this year is, of course, the good old (continental) U.S. of A.

I noted last week that NASA reports hottest June to October on record*, but the figure and monthly data (here) reveal several other interesting things:

  1. This year is currently on track to be the 5th warmest year on record, but, in fact, if the monthly temperature anomaly (compared to the 1951 to 1980 average) stays near where it has been for the last two months, then 2009 will surpass 2007 as the second hottest year on record.
  2. If November’s anomaly is the same as the anomaly for the last two months, then November will tie for the hottest November in the temperature record.
  3. If the average temperature anomaly during 2010 is only as high as it’s been from June to October of this year, then 2010 will roughly tie for the hottest year on record.

We’ll know about the first two above within a few weeks.

What makes recent record temps especially impressive is that we’re at “the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century,” according to NASA.  It’s just hard to stop the march of anthropogenic global warming, well, other than by reducing GHG emissions, that is.

Back in January, NASA had predicted:  “Given our expectation of the next El Ni±o beginning in 2009 or 2010, it still seems likely that a new global temperature record will be set within the next 1-2 years, despite the moderate negative effect of the reduced solar irradiance.”

Then, back in early June NOAA put out “El Ni±o Watch,” which I noted meant that “record temperatures are coming and this will be the hottest decade on record.”

Then, a few weeks ago, the key Nino 3.4 region of the Pacific began to really heat up, as had been predicted (see “El Ni±o-driven sea surface temperatures still soaring. Hottest decade poised to get even hotter“).

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

Finally, NOAA’s latest weekly update on the El Ni±o/Southern oscillation, “ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions” shows that the Nino 3.4 region has stayed quite warm for 3 weeks running, leading NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center to again assert “Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Ni±o is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.”  And NOAA’s own CFS (Climate Forecast System) ensemble mean forecast issued on Sunday “predicts El Ni±o will last at least through Northern hemisphere spring 2010.”

So NASA’s January prediction is looking better and better.

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16 Responses to Must-see NASA figures compare 2009 to the two hottest years on record: 2005 and 2007

  1. WAG says:

    So that’s what the “decline” Phil Jones was hiding looks like. You can use the GISS map tool to compare the 10 years after he wrote that email to the 10 years before it, and still get a +0.23 degree C anomaly.

    http://akwag.blogspot.com/2009/11/hiding-decline-what-that-really-looks.html

    What’s also ironic is that while skeptics are using the hacked files to try and discredit the Hadley/CRU data, that dataset actually shows less warming than NASA’s. So if British scientists are trying to “hide a decline” in temps, they’re not doing a very good job.

  2. Dorothy says:

    Thank you for this, Joe. I’ll say a special one for you on TG day. Those climate deniers must be really getting desperate, and therefor dangerous. It seems they’ll stop at nothing.
    Your post is very useful, and I’ll certainly be passing it on.

  3. Wit's End says:

    For all of the faithful RommNLegions who have been wondering where and when the grassroots will emerge to demand that there be a public cry for realistic legislation on climate change, I highly recommend considering action Monday, November 30, after your (hopefully) pleasant feast with family and friends on the holiday.

    You can join activities already planned, or make your own, to register your opposition to Corporate Climate Criminals, as listed here: http://www.actforclimatejustice.org/n30-day-of-action/dirty-money-and-dirtier-fuels-6-corporate-climate-criminals/

    Personally, I’m going to take a few hours off to leaflet in front of one of them (haven’t decided which yet) and maybe if I’m lucky I’ll get arrested! There’s a Texaco station not far from my home….

  4. Wit's End says:

    sorry, forgot to include a link, http://www.witsendnj.blogspot.com

  5. Jordan says:

    It amazes me how clear the scientific evidence is that the earth is warming yet how little Americans are cognizant of this. While some of the burden should fall on the scientific community for their inability to explain their findings in ways that the average American can understand, our government, specifically Barack Obama are really at fault for this. The polar regions are warming at dangerously high levels yet few people realize that this is a problem because the United States experienced a cool summer. For anyone that is interested, I expanded on this point in a post to my blog: http://www.songofsibyl.com/2009/11/23/the-road-to-copenhagen-global-warming-or-climate-change.

  6. Bob O. says:

    Has anyone made the point that this CRU hack might have been a knee-jerk attempt to bury this story?

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency

    Both of these stories came out within a short period.

    In a sense, it might be the fossil fuel crowd’s/denier’s attempt to “hide the decline” in fossil fuel extraction.

    With many media outlets grabbing/dubbing this story as climategate, they have utterly ignored the claims of the IEA whistleblowers.

    This is something the deniers seem to utterly ignore—the fact that we’re just simply running out of oil. That fact should be emphasized more often.

  7. Raleigh Latham says:

    In leiu of news like this, I’ve reconciled to the fact that my generation has no bright future to look forward to. I’m 21, and I’m already looking up “Polar cities” and starting to plan my post-graduate life on the worst climate change predictions. Can’t live in California, maybe Alaska will do. That doesn’t mean I won’t do whatever the hell I can to help stop the worst of climate change on a personal level. I’ve stopped eating most forms of meat, given 1/5 of every check I get to reforestation, and you bet your ass I’ll be marching on the streets during any 350 rally.

  8. Leif says:

    Raleigh, #7: I am 67 and been an activist since the early 60’s. One of the many who attempted to levitate the Pentagon. We finally succeeded as the military is starting to go green. A few words to you if I may. Don’t wait for others to lead, be a leader. Yes things look bleak at the moment but that is not unusual for activists. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. It is always darkest before the dawn.
    Got to go, wife calling.

  9. WAG says:

    Raleigh – I’m 24 and I feel your frustration. Most of the people pushing climate denial won’t be around by the time its worst effects start kicking in, so they will never know how wrong they’ve been, and there’s no way to bring them to justice/ hold them accountable for their actions.

    Leif – thanks for the encouraging words. We could use more Leifs.

  10. Peter Sinclair says:

    what’s frustrating is that, if the worst effects of climate changitee
    do come to pass,
    climate deniers will just write it off as God’s punishment
    for Gay parades.

  11. shannon says:

    Thanks for the great info. I like the graphs to help illustrate the issue.

  12. Hello , it is Thanksgiving Day! I’m enjoying my extra day off, and I am planning to doing something fun that will probably involve a bike ride and seeing something new in Patterson I haven’t seen yet.
    You write something new at Thanksgiving?

  13. Leif says:

    Danny Bloom, # 12: You may in fact get habitable polar temperatures in do time without a concerted effort on civilizations part but you will still end up with 24 hour daylight and dark cycles. Not to mention acidic oceans and minimal farm land. I am rooting for 280 ppm myself.

  14. chugg says:

    Researchers recently got their first look at the ocean floor under the one region with melting ice- the Arctic.
    The astonishing discovery of 1100 miles of volcanic mountains that began erupting in 1999- the same year the precipitous melting began! The discovery reversed the long-held theory that the pressure at such depths precluded volcanic activity. The two AP stories published in the weeks following portrayed the Arctic as melting from man-made global warming and warning your kids that Santa lives there! No mention of
    any volcanoes…

  15. chugg says:

    In other words, acidic seas are a good thing

    http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/acid.htm

  16. Me says:

    Good points, I think I will definitely subscribe! I’ll go and read some more! What do you see the future of this being?