Ensemble mean forecast “predicts El Nino will last at least into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010″
We seem to have settled into a moderate to strong El Ni±o. NOAA’s latest weekly update on the El Ni±o/Southern oscillation, “ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions” shows that the key region of the Pacific Ocean has stayed quite warm for all of November (see here for figures and data).
The question is how long it will stay fairly strong. Last week I noted that NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center had asserted:
Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Ni±o is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.”
This week they tweaked that to say:
Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Ni±o is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Today’s report notes:
Nearly all ENSO models indicate El Ni±o will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10. The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Ni±o, but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Ni±o (greater than +1.0°C) through December-January-February 2009-10.
A majority of ENSO models indicate El Ni±o will continue through March-April-May 2010.
Last week, NOAA said its own CFS (Climate Forecast System) ensemble mean forecast “predicts El Ni±o will last at least through Northern hemisphere spring 2010.”
This week, the prediction is slightly different:
Summer 2010 is a long way off to make an ENSO prediction. Next week, NOAA will release its monthly analysis, which should give a clearer picture of what the expert NOAA forecasters think is likely to happen next year.
Back in January, NASA had predicted: “Given our expectation of the next El Ni±o beginning in 2009 or 2010, it still seems likely that a new global temperature record will be set within the next 1-2 years, despite the moderate negative effect of the reduced solar irradiance.”
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