With the employment news today about 100,000 jobs better than expected — “the nation’s employers had all but stopped shedding jobs in November” — I thought I’d run this graph Nate Silver posted a couple weeks ago in a post titled, “It’s [Still] The Economy, Dumbass.”
Nate wrote “this is my favorite graph in quite some time,” and pointed out
… you’ll have pundits attributing Obama’s slide to all various and sundry sorts of things — Health Care! Henry Louis Gates! Torture Trials! — when really it’s just been very much about the number of people who have come to blame Obama about the economy has tended to accelerate faster than perceptions of the economy itself.
Same for climate and clean energy.
Yes, team Obama’s messaging could certainly be better, but the point is all the non-economic stuff is probably secondary if not tertiary to Obama’s ratings. If indeed we’ve hit bottom in the jobs market — and Floyd Norris, the NYT‘s chief financial correspondent thinks “The Job Drought May Be Over” and “this will not be a jobless recovery” — then that is yet another good piece of news for the prospects of a bipartisan climate and clean energy bill. Indeed, it is two pieces of good news, since it would not only mean a stabilization if not improvement of his overall approval ratings, but clear proof that his stimulus, with its big clean energy jobs push, had make a significant impact.
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The effects of breaking the economy includes a 20% increase in the past 90 days of the number of homeless. When there is job loss, the loss of housing takes a few months and then people face eviction from rent or foreclosure. The housing and homeless problem is greater that the secondary issues like cash for clunkers.
I suspect that part of the reason for the improved jobs numbers is Christmas hiring and that more people who have been out of work for a long time dropped off the unemployment roles. I suspect the bleak numbers will again start up in Jan-Feb.
I wonder how many people could be employed putting white coatings on roofs, installing double or triple-paned windows, insulating attics, replacing dated water heaters, replacing aged refrigerators, replacing worn HVAC systems with ground-loop heat pumps and installing solar panels?
Even if these programs were done on a free or billed through utility basis to be cost-neutral to building occupants the long-term reduction in power costs would build economic strength.
Energy retrofits are not that complicated and done by site teams they could save our country millions in imported oil and methane costs while giving people jobs.
What happened to Van Jones? Why are we pretending this is rocket science?
Popularity down, time for a war. How about one that will actually do some good; a war on global warming. Solar pannel savings bonds, car factories can turn out wind turbines and Senator Inhofe can be arrested as an enemy agent.
I think Obama got dealt a really bad hand in regards to the Economy, but I also think that’s been true for most of the past 40+ years (this one is the worst in that line so far however). Clinton managed to leave a surplus, but even that had a lot to do with accounting gimmicks as much as anything else. The Bush years were a travesty in regards to any fiscal responsibility. Lately we seem to have become mostly a bubble economy and really need to deal with real structural issues (one reason I think “green” or “clean” tech is important – and it would help if we stopped all the corporate welfare that keeps the fossil fuels cheaper than they otherwise would be in regards to that). All of them have left an incomprehensible amount in the “unfunded liabilities” column – and that column is going to be coming due soon. I actually feel sorrier for whoever comes after him though, that’s when the real fun starts.
Discover card just released a report on small business confidence, and small businesses sure don’t look like they think things are going well. Add to it the state’s current situation (a lot of the stimulus went to offset what they would have been cutting – as in laying off people – so this year isn’t going to be so pretty in regards to that part) and I’d be very hesitant to say we are even close to over the hump yet.
I’d certainly never look to the NYT for any meaningful economic guidance at any rate. That’s like taking CNBC as real business news instead of financial humor and entertainment. All I can say in regards to most of the rest of the “financial managers” out there is that if we had continued listening to them two and a half years ago instead of telling them they were blind and firing them we’d of been screwed. I still have a few friends who want to know how come I knew what was coming and was warning everyone about “what no one saw coming” (generally unsuccessfully – so I understand the frustration of warning in what seems to be futility). Took a year of sitting down with numerous planners until we found one who actually seemed to understand the full situation – and it was already pretty much crashing by then!!, so I’m not likely to be listening to most of them again anytime soon. Their models & systems seem to trump the ability to read a balance sheet (my dad was a project manager for FASB, so that’s not a problem I have…).
I guess I need to take a refresher course in spin-speak. Can somebody please explain to me the difference between “the nation’s employers all but stopped shedding jobs in November” and “the nation’s employers continued to shed jobs in November”?
Is “all but stopped” the same thing as “stopped”?
[JR: Nice try.]
The economy is designed as if materials (matter) derived from mining are instead energy resources. This is ecologic and scientific fraud. Of course, since the US economy is designed by humans it can promote anything we desire. Are we ready to change war mongering and corporate fascist practices to cooperation and provision of peaceful sustenance. Can we convert from a war (and fuel) economy to a clean energy economy before structural collapse?