Hottest decade on record may well be followed by hottest year
NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center released its monthly El Ni±o/Southern oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion:
Synopsis: El Ni±o is expected to continue and last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
El Ni±o strengthened from October to November 2009, as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Figs. 1 and 2). The Ni±o-3.4 index value remained steady during November with the most recent weekly value at +1.7°C (Fig. 2)…. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a moderate strength El Ni±o.
This is a revision from NOAA’s November Diagnosis:
El Ni±o is expected to continue strengthening and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.
On Monday, in its weekly ENSO update, NOAA said its own CFS (Climate Forecast System) ensemble mean forecast projected “El Ni±o lasting “at least into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.”
Back in January, NASA had predicted:
Given our expectation of the next El Ni±o beginning in 2009 or 2010, it still seems likely that a new global temperature record will be set within the next 1-2 years, despite the moderate negative effect of the reduced solar irradiance.
If a moderate El Ni±o lasts into the late spring or beyond, then NASA’s January prediction is looking better and better. And indeed, the AP reported back in late October, “NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt predicts 2010 may break a record.”
So yes, the hottest decade in recorded history by far may well be followed by the hottest year on record, even though we’re at “the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century,” according to NASA. It’s just hard to stop the march of anthropogenic global warming, well, other than by reducing GHG emissions, that is.