Sierra Club: “A historic–if incomplete–agreement to begin tackling global warming.”
President Obama Friday announced that he had agreed to a “first step” global warming deal with China, India, Brazil and South Africa at the United Nations climate change conference in Copenhagen–an accord long on promise and short on accomplishment….
Mr. Obama called the agreement “meaningful and unprecedented,” because it included promises by China and other major developing nations to slow the growth of their greenhouse gas emissions. “What we’ve achieved in Copenhagen will not be the end, but the beginning, the beginning of a new era of international action,” he said.
That’s the first take of the conservative daily Washington Times in their useful daily Washington Insight/Energy (sub. req’d).
In his DotEarth post, “A ‘First Step’ Climate Deal,” Revkin writes, “Here is a link to the ‘Copenhagen Accord‘ as it stands in the middle of the night here.” The Washington Post has a long story just up, “World leaders reach deal on climate change in Copenhagen.”
Here’s the other side of the spectrum from WashTimes — Carl Pope, Sierra Club Executive Director:
“The world’s nations have come together and concluded a historic–if incomplete–agreement to begin tackling global warming. Tonight’s announcement is but a first step and much work remains to be done in the days and months ahead in order to seal a final international climate deal that is fair, binding, and ambitious. It is imperative that negotiations resume as soon as possible.
“President Obama and the rest of the world paid a steep price here in Copenhagen because of obstructionism in the United States Senate. That a deal was reached at all is testament to President Obama’s leadership–all the more remarkable because of the very weak hand he was dealt because of the Senate’s failure to pass domestic clean energy and climate legislation. Now that the rest of the world–including countries like China and India–has made clear that it is willing to take action, the Senate must pass domestic legislation as soon as possible. America and the world can no longer be held hostage to petty politics and obstructionism.
“What was clear over the past two weeks is that there is no argument over the science of global warming or the urgency with which we must act. A parade of developed and developing counties alike made crystal clear that they would implement their national plans to tackle global warming and building the clean energy economy not because they were required to do so, but because it was simply in their own national interest to do so.
“The agreement reached here has all the ingredients necessary to construct a final treaty–a mitigation target of 2 degrees Celsius, nationally appropriate action plans, a mechanism for international climate finance, and transparency with regard to national commitments. President Obama has made much progress in past 11 months and it now appears that the U.S.–and the world–is ready to do the hard work necessary to finish what was started here in Copenhagen.
“A chilly two weeks in Copenhagen has given humanity its best chance of preventing the ravages of a warming world. Today’s deal is neither perfect nor complete, but we must not this chance slip away.”
Here’s more from the WashTimes:
The accord was expected to be considered by the full 193-nation conference either late Friday or Saturday. Mr. Obama said he expected the conference to embrace the agreement.
The agreement came after talks late in the evening Friday in the snowy Danish capital with the leaders of China, India, South Africa, Brazil and Ethiopia, which with other developing countries had pressed industrial nations to do more to cut their own greenhouse gas emissions and send billions of dollars in climate aid to poor nations.
Mr. Obama personally dashed between meetings throughout the day, including two with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. He left Copenhagen for Washington before the deal could be presented to the 193-nation conference because of the snow storm forecast to hit the U.S. East Coast Friday night.
Mr. Obama and Mr. Wen, considered the key architects of any final agreement, began the day without making any new commitments in speeches to the conference.
“We are ready to get this done today but there has to be movement on all sides to recognize that is better for us to act rather than talk,” Obama later told reporters, insisting on a transparent way to monitor each nation’s pledges to cut emissions.
Wen told delegates that China’s voluntary targets of reducing its carbon intensity by 40 to 45 percent will require “tremendous efforts.” The target refers to China’s rate of emissions per unit of economic growth.
“We will honor our word with real action,” Wen said.
For a time, the summit appeared to be on the verge of failing to meet already-modest goals for a purely rhetorical agreement because of impasses between rich and poor countries over greenhouse gas emissions cuts and verification methods.
Draft agreements circulated among negotiators dropped a 2010 deadline for completion of a binding treaty and also omitted a global greenhouse gas emissions reduction target of 50 percent by 2050, as had been urged by climate scientists.
In the end, a non-binding agreement along with a promise to try to firm things up later was the best the negotiators could do.
“You might compare it to a ‘standstill agreement’ in trade negotiations,” in which all sides agree to abide by the commitments made to date,” said Melinda Cooke, a vice president at the UN Foundation.
Elliot Diringer, a vice president at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, called the agreement “an important step forward,” but cautioned that a binding treaty in a year, as some had hoped would happen, now appears to be a huge challenge.
I’ll have Andrew Light’s take soon, but I’ve got to go to sleep. I have a busy day of non-traveling to DC Saturday!
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It’s snowing here Joe. Good luck making it back!
(how ironic would that headline be: “global warming blogger stranded by snowstorm on way back from Copenhagen”)
Joe,
I notice that comments highly critical of the “accord” reached in Copenhagen have been removed. You are not able to withstand the free and open exchange of ideas. Those comments were great. Put them back up!
[JR: I haven't "removed" any comments critical of the accord -- I've been asleep!]
Given how recently the two major players, the People’s Republic of China and the United States have gotten serious about taking on climate change I think we have accomplished about as much as could be expected. More important though is that a new international momentum is emerging that will move us in the right direction. And one can not easily discount the psychological impact of so many world leaders going through the experience of the conference itself. That sort of thing can matter a great deal in the long run.
Credit the UK Guardian:
“John Sauven, executive director of Greenpeace UK, said: “The city of Copenhagen is a crime scene tonight, with the guilty men and women fleeing to the airport.”Ed Miliband [UK climate change secretary] is among the very few that come out of this summit with any credit.”
Excuse, please… My entry above should refer to OBOMBA as one of the guilty!
Not so fast. It’s 4:52 am here in Copenhagen and there is definitely no deal yet. Once again the media jumped the gun and got the story wrong. The coverage of COP15 has been embarrassingly bad. Here’s what really happened on the last day (and night) of Copenhagen:
The friend’s of the COP president, consisting of 24 heads of state, met all day and well into the night in an attempt to hammer out a last minute agreement. The basis for the text was drafted by the president and her staff. Drafts of the text leaked out throughout the day, but the document was not final until 2 am. The group of 24 was largely behind the document, but Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales signaled earlier in the day that they could not support anything that came out of such an opaque process, regardless of the content.
The COP president distributed the final draft of the text at 3am and intended to allow parties one hour to review, but countries called for a point of order and several (Tuvalu, Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba…) rejected the text out of hand. The COP president as of 3:55 am paused the meeting to evaluate the situation. It does not look like there will be a Copenhagen Accord.
How come Andrew Light’s blogpost named “Obama Hits the Reset Button on the Foundations of International Climate Agreements: No longer developed vs. developing countries but major emitters vs. everyone else” appears in my rss-reader, but not here?
[JR: Sorry about that. A little later he wanted to revise it, and since I was asleep, they just took it down. I'm not sure when it'll go up again, since I think he's asleep, and I have to go to airport to find out about my non-flight to DC.]
Dropped comment, trying again:
“The only battle that is worth fighting is the one you lose and lose and lose and finally win.”
Copenhagen was a bit of a let down, no doubt, but we are still in the early rounds (hopefully). World leaders are talking, some big businesses are getting on the bus, venture capital is moving, and one only needs to look back a year and a month to appreciate how far we have come. Take a break, the bell will ring for the next round before you know it.
Happy holidays All,
Leif
It’s kind of funny that the US press went with the belief that an agreement was reached because Obama made a (vague) agreement with a few other countries. I am watching COP15 go down in flames right now as other countries slam the process as well as the content of the agreement itself.
Really what was reached in Copenhaguen still confuses me. Some are optimistic, while others say that almost nothing was obtained.
Is the Copenhaguen Summit already ended?
What I have heard is that there are a lot of good intentions and speeches (someones are proud of the Obama speech, others outraged. Then there is the aggressive speech of Hugo Chavez, and the refractary positions of China and India) but not a single specific and obligatory measure was accorded.
No emissions targets, and not even an accord of the process to give the REDD creadits(and this last seemed likely a few days ago).
Then any relevant decision will be take in the Mexico City Summit, planned for… November 2010.
JR et al. is there any hint of the strong action needed?
How long will the delays continue?
“Draft agreements circulated among negotiators dropped a 2010 deadline for completion of a binding treaty and also omitted a global greenhouse gas emissions reduction target of 50 percent by 2050, as had been urged by climate scientists.”
The reality is, a 2050 deadline for action is practically no deadline at all. A meaningful deadline is one that falls within one presidential term, forcing real action. Furthermore, climate scientists are calling for 80% reduction by 2050, and even that will probably not be enough, in real terms.
It is a mistake to frame the solution to climate change as a political or economic process. By doing so, we subject climate action to all the compromises, delays, and shenanigans of such processes.
No, this is not a “modest victory” for Obama. To cite Guardian, UK:
“Low targets, goals dropped: Copenhagen ends in failure. Deal that is not legally binding thrashed out at talks damned as climate change denial in action”
And this is the type of comments that are ecohoed all over Europe and by the spokespersons from the climate action movement.
So there is no glory for Obama, nor should he take all the blame. But Copenhagen is a step backward and is bringing us all on a route to a warm, bad world. It is also apparent that our leaders, collectively are not up to handling this task. But it is also very clear that in some countries, like the US, climate policies have been taken hostage by angry old men. Furthermore, also the climate movement has to think deeply about new strategies.
At this time, I have no answers. Let’s just call Copenhagen what it is, a failure, and then get back to combining science with individuals, society and politics in order to change our collective direction before we literally hit an iceberg
It’s a baby step. I think the momentum is shifting as the need for action becomes more and more obvious.
Obama certainly doesn’t deserve that Nobel Prize at all right now without risking something for for a livable climate. If he botches the senate climate bill then he’s gonna get hell.
The Copenhagen accord will go down in history like the 1938 Münich Agreement…
http://3eintelligence.wordpress.com/2009/12/19/thou-art-weighed-in-the-balance-and-found-wanting/
This is what makes me despair. If we have such potential agreements here then why are oil companies bidding and winning contracts to mine Iraqs oil. Anyone want to comment on this fact. Thats another 110 billion barrels being plugged.
It’s better to face failure head on and admit it, than to pretend it’s a partial success.
Thinking this is ok for now and will see us through the next few years is disastrous. We need to say “Copenhagen was a fail, we urgently need a proper conference in Mexico”.
Let us hope that COP 15 is the peak of chaos and the world will quickly get back to business and produce a good CO2 emission reduction plan with teeth. I have read all the blogs I could and all the newspaper reports readily available to me. It was hard to find solace and hope. One thing is clear to me, the U.S. Senate is key. We must get them to pass a decent bill. I will continue to concentrate on that although I do not know any senator personally, I’ll write e-mails and sign petitions.
Still, I believe we need marches on Washington as I have c commented in the past.
Establish framework instead of making a deal? It seems we have little reported as of now.
Joe,
Love your blog, you’re definitely my go to credible and objective source on all this stuff. Please keep it real and objective, don’t just give us the positive spin on Copenhagen and Obama’s accomplishments there. Was any progress really made? Maybe the results are what realistically should have been expected, but from the perspective of where we need to get it still feels like a big disappointment and setback.
Thanks.
I believe that Willy the Baker is right:
This “deal” is like the 1938 Munich Agreement.
Or maybe even worse, at least, some decisions were taken in Munich, here NOTHING WAS DECIDED, apart from good words and intentions.
We really need, sad to say, a CLIMATE 9-11.
Or everything else that could trigger a political tipping point (maybe an ice-free Arctic + a CAT-4 or CAT-5 hurricane in New York and Beiging + a Maoist Revolution in India…)
I hope such a series of disasters could melt the current status-quo.
But remember Albert Einstein words:
“There are two infinite things: the Universe and Human Stupidity, and I am not sure of the first one”
Fossil fuel industries have made extraordinary efforts over the past two decades to block any governmental interference in their operations. It hasn’t been easy for them. Efficiency and renewables make more sense economically, and the CO2 waste from their products is by far the worst environmental pollutant ever released into the atmosphere. But up until yesterday, their vast influence has allowed them to grow in power and profits every year. Every year, CO2 emissions climb, and the tipping points rush toward us.
Certainly, the Copenhagen Accord isn’t what we all wish for, a clean fair mechanism to swiftly get back under 350. But what it is, I think, is proof that the carbon club has lost its grip on events, and the tide has turned at last.
Although it certainly is very, very important to keep a positive attitude in this battle, and I applaud Joe for doing so, how anyone can think Copenhagen is any type of “success” is beyond me. There’s a fine line between optimism and denial.
I spent many hours watching–or attempting to–the various sessions and the overall impression I got was of a bunch of people who showed up to make grandiose speeches about the importance of the issue, but had no real sense of a plan. Did these people do anything at all since Bali? It appeared that they left there, filed their notes, did nothing for two years, and then opened them back up last week and expected a miracle to happen. I eventually stopped watching anything except the science-oriented talks and certain press conferences. And my impression of diplomats took a fairly serious hit in the process.
Hi Wim (#6), My piece on the end of the meeting now reposted on CP. When I wrote my original I was working from an earlier draft of the agreement and didn’t realize it. Waited until the meeting was completely done to repost to ensure accuracy.
It is questionable whether this forum of nearly 200 sovereign states can function as the best venue for making key steps forward. That said Obama at immense effort and putting himself on the line took political and diplomatic risks that we have seen from no American President ever to advance the process. The President is entirely correct in saying that this agreement is insufficient and that far more needs to be done, but he almost single-handedly saved the conference from ending with complete and utter failure to achieve anything.
This agreement may well be the best that could be expected from Copenhagen, given the “political realities”. It may even be better that what many people expected from Copenhagen.
Unfortunately, the sad truth is that it is not enough, given the physical realities. The emissions reductions that are proposed (which may or may not be actually realized) are already known to be insufficient to achieve the goal of limiting the anthropogenic temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius, and moreover, a 2 degrees Celsius increase is already known to be too hot to avert catastrophic effects (which is self-evident given that the warming that has already occurred, less than half that amount, is already causing catastrophic effects).
We are heading for a major wipe-out, and the Copenhagen Accord doesn’t change that.
I think that the next order of Business is to renew our efforts in education and public awareness to stop and reverse the erosion of public concern. This effort needs to be top priority of not only President Obama and top officials but as pointed out by others on this site, the Universities, schools and other concerned citizens like you and I.
Even mildly negative push polls show strong public support for sustainable action, however personal and immediate economic suffering prevents most from raising the issue to demonstration status. There is so much injustice in the world it is very hard to raise to the top of peoples concern. However, it is my opinion that addressing energy sustainability effectively would go a long way to alleviating other social injustices the world over.
We are headed for 2.4°C no matter what we do, because of cooling aerosol effects – see Ramanathan lecture (on youtube)
It says my comment #12 is still awaiting moderation. How come?
How is possible that in the same country, INDIA, we have the best climate scientists (V. Ramanathan,the “discoverer” of Global Dimming and Prachauri, head of the IPCC) and at the same time the worst government in Climate Change terms?
It is a government that is the voice of the Big Business of India, a group that doesn’t want any emissions regulations. The government is worried how to mantain a 6-9% economic growth.
What this government doesn’t say is that this “6-9% growth” only affects the upper classes in the big cities, while in the countryside the peasants are maybe the worst hit by Climate Change in the world.
This year happened the worst drought in 30 years. The moonsoon rains were more than 15% below normal. Decades of land exploitation had depleted the underground aquifers, that are falling several meters per year. Now there are needed powerful drill machines to obtain that precious water. This summer, peasants began killing one another for barrels of water.
Then, in September, the worst flooding hit South-Central India. The fields that survived the drought drowned. Vital grain reserves were destroyed. In the Himalayas flash-floods happened, with Bhuthan seeing the worst flooding in 60 years. Now is the dry season, and the drought has returned.
And now the country is at the doors of CIVIL WAR. Decades of exploitation and extreme poverty have triggered a wave of Maoist insurgency that now affects 1/3 of the country and spreads like bushfires in dry, parched vegetation.
The government had reacted very much like George Bush after 9-11, declaring the Maoist Party a “terrorist organization” and sending tens of thousands of military and para-military forces to crush the insurgents and now are killing every one suspected of supporting the Maoists and burning villages in the insurgency-affected areas. Hundreds of thousants of Adivasi Tribals are fleeing the war zone.
Maoists oppose the construction of factories and mining proyects in the area. Now Big Business want the land cleared to build their factories and obtain coal and steel for running them.
How the Hell can be possible that the same country that had given the world people like Mahatma Ghandi, Siddartha Gauthama(Buddha), V. Ramanathan, S. Chandrasechar, R. Prachauri and thousands of other geniuses …
… can only stop their maddness of unsustainable growth by the gunpoint of Maoist Rebellion?!