The figure above shows the number of days the temperature will exceed 90°F by century’s end in the IPCC’s A2 scenario (850 ppm), which is actually lower than our current emissions trajectory (see “Global Warming Is A Medical Emergency”: Hellish heatwaves to harm health of millions).
Yet even though much of his state is poised to exceed 90°F much of the year, Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA) went to the floor of the House last week to slam clean energy legislation because it would supposedly lead to … hyperthermia, where body temperatures skyrocket, and then “people are gonna die because of that”! Here is his bizarre rant:
BROUN: A lot of old people in Georgia and Florida and all out through the southeast and southwest they’re depending upon air condition just to live. And if their electricity goes sky high, and the energy bill is gonna make that happen if it ever passes. And a lot of people aren’t gonna be able to afford to run their air condition anymore. And a lot of people are gonna have a hard time with, hyperthermia is what we call in medicine as a medical doctor, their body temperature is gonna go up. They’re gonna get dehydration and people are gonna have a lot of problems and it’s gonna have a greater impact on our health care system and people are gonna die because of that. And it’s gonna kill jobs too.
Thing Progress notes:
This isn’t the first time Broun has claimed that congressional legislation is going to kill people. Last July, the congressman claimed that if Congress were to pass comprehensive health care reform, “a lot of people are going to die.” It is worth noting that, according to a 2007 study by Harvard University researchers, that global warming could lead to a significant rise in heat-related deaths. (HT: Media Matters)
I would add that the House’s clean energy legislation would not merely help avoid catastrophic global warming but creates a vast pool of money that will be invested in energy efficiency, lowering people’s energy bills and making them less likely to lose their air-conditioning for lack of money (see “New EPA analysis of Waxman-Markey: Consumer electric bills 7% lower in 2020 thanks to efficiency “” plus 22 GW of extra coal retirements and no new dirty plants” and “The triumph of energy efficiency: Waxman-Markey could save $3,900 per household and create 650,000 jobs by 2030“).
Hellish heat waves will in fact become commonplace in the coming decades if we don’t reverse greenhouse gas emissions trends sharply and soon, as the figure above makes clear (see “Definitive NOAA-led report warns of scorching 9 to 11°F warming over most of inland U.S. by 2090 with Kansas above 90°F some 120 days a year “” and that isn’t the worst case, it’s business as usual!“). By 2090, it’ll be above 90°F some 120 days a year in Kansas “” more than the entire summer. Much of Florida and Texas will exceed 90°F half the days of the year. These won’t be called heat waves anymore. It’ll just be the “normal” climate.
Based on two studies: By century’s end, extreme temperatures of up to 122°F would threaten most of the central, southern, and western U.S. Even worse, Houston and Washington, DC could experience temperatures exceeding 98°F for some 60 days a year. Much of Arizona would be subjected to temperatures of 105°F or more for 98 days out of the year-14 full weeks.
On our current emissions path, we may well exceed the A2 scenario and hit A1F1 (see U.S. media largely ignores latest warning from climate scientists: “Recent observations confirm “¦ the worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being realised” “” 1000 ppm).
In a terrific March presentation, Climate scientist Katherine Hayhoe has a figure of what the A1F1 would mean (derived from the NOAA-led report):
Much of Georgia would be exceed 100°F virtually every day of the entire summer.
Yes, I am aware that there is a new hyperthermia study out there I haven’t yet blogged on. It is coming!
Previous in TP Climate Progress
Heatwave creates drought which in turn leads to famine.
10 mln fear worst as Sahel faces new food crisis
“This is the worst crisis in 30 years”, worse than 1984 or 2005, Alio Mahamane, a member of Niger’s farmers organisation, told AFP.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jkwK9tMJtOVDmgPzwy3J0y9g91EA
West Africa’s “slow-motion” famine
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9KE–0r1rY&feature=player_embedded
Heat wave in Israel sparks fires
http://www.jta.org/news/article/2010/06/22/2739717/heat-wave-hits-israel
Wow, that last image looks bad for Mexico. Want to be a little careful with “if we don’t reverse greenhouse gas emissions trends sharply and soon” since the US is trending down a little. Don’t want to reverse that.
Wait, so there were no old people in the South before air conditioning was invented?
A Georgia Republican is using a misunderstanding of the facts (yeah, let’s call it that and avoid that nasty old L-word) to make people afraid of a solution that doesn’t agree with his ideology?
Man, I didn’t see that one coming. Go figure.
If I were a Georgian, I would have to immediately move out of state, and change the license plates as soon as I arrived. Evolution is being proven correct there- except it’s the devolution version, where it goes in reverse.
Saxby Chambliss is even worse than Lester Maddox, and now this. I hope Europeans and even Chinese don’t read this post, or they’d really get worried.
At least we learned something. This explains Judith Curry.
How many days will be over 110 degrees? over 120. Texas is going to be uninhabitable.
Add global warming to natural variation and it gets real scary. What will the exceptional heatwave look like? These unpleasant looking average maximums hide the very nasty extremes that we will face.
You are going to have states that will be effectively shut down for weeks on end. Virtually no one will be moving outside of home.
Does this mean Southerners, like other species, will move northward?
Scary thought.
wag says:
June 22, 2010 at 5:12 pm
“Wait, so there were no old people in the South before air conditioning was invented?”
Sure there were but the whole family had to go sleep outside during the hottest days/nights. Furthermore there will be more of these days in a string along with extremes as Rabid Doomsayer just mentioned. Even nights will often times be uninhabitable.
The states of AZ, Nevada, parts of CA, New Mexico, Texas, OK, will virtually be not habitable by late in the century.
The American wheat/corn belts from Kansas, to Nebraska, South Dakota- and eastward to Iowa will become A semi desert dust bowl.
Even Illinois and Indiana will become hot and dry and most agriculture will by then have shifted north.
What puzzles me is why the media has chosen to ignore this- Even here in New England we will see over 20 days a year with 100 degrees (Connecticut at Hartford) and over 80 days above 90- that’s much hotter then today where we average 2 days at 100- and 20 above 90.
We have real bad problems- and so few see anything. Its getting warmer here in New England more rapidly now- the 6 state region has perhaps the most progressive legislation regarding climate change.
“Does this mean Southerners, like other species, will move northward?
Scary thought.”
If you have prolonged events there will be considerable mortality rates. Survivors might try to settle elsewhere. If you have extended events – over time, i think most people will drift into a more impassivity pattern.
Evaluating the impact of extreme temperature based indices in the 2003 heatwave excessive mortality in Portugal
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VP6-4X00PCT-1&_user=10&_coverDate=11%2F30%2F2009&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1378377805&_rerunOrigin=scholar.google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=ade856d2836d171521504fc68237c13d
It has long been recognised that extremes of climate can disrupt communities [1]. Although some significant climate events, such as seasonal floods on river deltas, can be important to the sustainability of human settlements and natural ecosystems, extreme events tend to cause major disruption to communities and the environment. For example, a prolonged heat wave across Europe in 2003 led to the early death of tens of thousands of people in France [2], a bushfire in Australia in 2009 killed 173 people in one day [3] and a flood in Bangladesh can cover up to 70% of the country [4]. By definition, extremes are unlikely events and so they are very difficult to predict. Their predictability can be even more difficult when they are of short duration and small scale (such as tornadoes or flash floods). However, the extent and duration of widespread and long-lasting events, as represented by regional-scale droughts, are also not straightforward to predict.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B985C-50709FB-1&_user=10&_coverDate=06%2F02%2F2010&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1378379518&_rerunOrigin=scholar.google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=24079437528b4f1672fb797b70044c06
In terms of health impacts, our projections are most severe for low-altitude river basins in southern Europe and for the Mediterranean coasts, affecting many densely populated urban centres. We find that in these locations, the frequency of dangerous heat conditions also increases significantly faster and more strongly, and that the associated geographical pattern is robust across different models and health indicators.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n6/full/ngeo866.html
“These unpleasant looking average maximums hide the very nasty extremes that we will face.” Well Noted @8.
The question then needs to be asked; What happens to all the life that does not have access to Air Conditioning? Stock animals, chickens and turkeys, fruits, vegetables, bees, fields and grass lands, poor and homeless, etc. when heat waves become defined by over 122 F or 50C like they have approached in India this spring in India already this year.
Also noted by Chris, @3, Mexico sure does not look to be a good place to be. It is “global” climatic disruption after all.
Good comments today, thanks to all.
Peter, #11: you forgot Arizona. Been in Phoenix in July lately? You can fry an egg on the sidewalk at 11 AM. That city will be abandoned, along with all of the formerly Colorado River-irrigated farmland nearby. It will become a mad jungle of criminal squatters, murdering each other over water for their chickens.
Palm Springs gets over 120 pretty often now, and it’s humid besides, thanks to all the irrigated golf courses. We went through a 123 degree day there a few years ago (I lived in the nearby high desert). Texas, which is far more humid, will be worse. As several of you pointed out, humans can’t survive when temperatures get just a few degrees hotter, not to mention mass dieoffs of species like yucca and prickly pear. Adios to joshua trees and saguaros, too. Only creosote and acacia will be left, and they support little widlife.
All is good. Better quickly die of hyperthermia than miserably perish of hunger, pestilence or war – like billions will have to elsewhere, this century.
“electricity goes sky high”
It is easy to make that claim, no actual figure is given, and no one challenges him. The Republicans have been getting away with making scary claims that have no foundation in fact for a long time. It is one of their favorite tactics. I’m surprised he didn’t say: “The energy bill will kill grandma!”
“It is easy to make that claim, no actual figure is given, and no one challenges him.”
Because during heatwaves electricity demand is sky high.
Unless you have the next gen tech
New Air Conditioner Conquers All Climates, Saves Up To 90% Energy
http://www.physorg.com/news196452365.html
And please don’t forget the extra humidity in the air. “It’s not the heat, it’s the humidity’. When it’s 120 F. and the humidity is 90%, (fill in the blank).
So eventually the heat and unpredictable rainfall wipe out most of the forests and lesser vegetation on the land. But very heavy rainstorms, like we’re just starting to experience worldwide, fall unpredictably on the bare earth causing incredible mudslides and erosion. Maybe fungi will have their season. Muddy drainage from the continents will spill down the continental shelf muddying the depths of the oceans.
Braun sure has strange thought patterns, doesn’t he?
Paul Collins Broun, Jr. (born May 14, 1946)[1] is a Republican United States Representative from Georgia’s tenth congressional district. He is a member of the House Homeland Security Committee and the House Science and Technology Committee.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Broun
Your year 2099 peak temperature maps couldn’t possibly be correct!
After all, in another 90 years the sea level will rise significantly. So instead of sweltering in the 90′s, people along the coasts from Florida to Texas will be enjoying balmy sea breezes from their boats as they look down upon others permanently flooded homes.
Geez there goes one of the better reasons
why she would run for pres. Her makeup
melted from the car to the grocer’s door.
prokaryote, #17:
The air-conditioner you reference is a nice idea, but there are some problems.
1. At some point the dessicant needs to be regenerated, which due to the Third Law of Thermodynamics takes MORE energy than was initially removed.
2. You still have an efficiency problem in the cycle when the wet-buld temperature gets close enough to the dry-bulb value, which is exactly what is likely to happen in places like Georgia.
3. (And this applies to ANY electrical cooling mechanism in a heatwave.) The electrical grid manager doesn’t care how efficient you are, or how inefficient your neighbour might be. When push comes to shove, you will get blackouts or brownouts by district.
(And start thinking about exactly who will and will not suffer most of the outages if supply truly runs short.)
The above focus on climate extremes appears to assume that Americans are not going to get off their arses and transform their way of life as a matter of national pride, self respect, patriotic ambition, care for their communities, self-interest, love of their kin, conscience, etc, once they’re told:
a/. that China & other developing nations have agreed to achieve a fully verifiable peak and decline of their GHG outputs while the West is at the same time setting the example;
b/. that the past American ‘way of life’ cannot be maintained under the looming global insecurities of intensifying ‘extreme’ weather, of energy shortfalls and of resulting food scarcity: our society faces the choice of choosing how to address the insecurities efficiently and equitably, or of leaving the choice of how they’re imposed on society up to (an increasingly violent) mother nature;
c/. that anyone who doesn’t pull their finger out to hasten the transformation is endangering not only their neighbours’ children and those of their state, but also those elsewhere, whom it is equally immoral to put at risk.
So perhaps it needs saying a bit louder that while this convergence of crises is of truly existential scale, it is still eminently soluble, to the extent that damage and losses could fairly rapidly be minimized –
- and that the above focus on appalling future climate scenarios (tagged on less polite forums as ‘climate porn’) is only as useful for awakening hearts and minds as the viability, scope, and simplicity, of the global scenarios discussed in a balancing focus on the crises’ resolution.
Regards,
Lewis
ozajh, what about low tech dessicant?
From article:
Because DEVap uses salt solutions rather than refrigerants, there are no harmful chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) or hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) to worry about. A pound of CFC or HCFC in refrigerant-based A/Cs contributes as much to global warming as 2,000 pounds of carbon dioxide.
Rice is a common “low-tech” alternative frequently used, for example, in salt-shakers to maintain granularity of table-salt for effective pouring or shaking. Rice, however, is not a good general purpose desiccant since, unless immersed in an organism-hostile environment like pure salt, over time may be eaten by creatures that might in turn contaminate the product that is being preserved. Salt itself is another effective desiccant, used for millennia in preparation of dried food and also to mummify corpses.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desiccant
Liquid desiccants are used, but seems it regenerates / evaporates with the membrane technology.
Desiccant regeneration
Most useful desiccants can be recycled by thermally-induced drying, for example, in a conventional kitchen oven, or with solar energy. A cost-effective, low-energy, continuous-cycle desiccant dehumidifier or desiccant regeneration system can be easily designed from off-the-shelf component parts.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desiccant
“DEVap’s integrated evaporative component and its desiccant drying process offer improved dehumidification”
Doesn’t Georgia has moisture in the air?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet_bulb_temperature
Perhaps you are coming to Finland, ten degrees C more makes our country a paradise, and our land is going up 50 – 80 cm per century after the ice age.
Would be better the land rising ten meters per century, of course.
Jorleh, perhaps you not aware what an average increase of temperature means.
“The highest summer temperatures in the Finnish interior are from 32°C to 35°C.”
http://www.fmi.fi/weather/climate_4.html
By the 2080′s average yearly temperature in Finland may increase 3-7 °C and yearly average precipitation may increase 13-26 % with largest increases during winter. (Ruosteenoja and Jylhä et al. 2007, IPCC 2007)
http://www.clim-atic.org/WP4_floods_Finland.html
Mike Roddy #14
I did add Arizona as ‘AZ’–
As climate moves north the following is a likely scenario in the eastern third of the USA- By the end of the century under a high emission scenario- Connecticut will have a climate resembling Charleston SC or warmer. With increased rain in the summer and winter months. Sea rise will also effect the northeast more then other areas because of the melting of the Greenland Ice sheet.
Washington DC will resemble Miami OR Havana Cuba- tropical climate.
The deep south of today will become a semi dry Savannah-with a monsoonal type of precipitation pattern.
As on goes west from New York on about the 40th latitude- into the Midwest- it will become hotter and drier with less reliable precipitation. Agricultural belts will shift in southern Canada- the heat, dryness and invasive insects will make farming difficult.
The west coast-southern California will become hotter and drier still- the SF Bay area will be warmer- but some sections around SF Bay will be flooded (SFO will be under water) Sea rise will extend into San Pablo bay & Siusan bay- and flood into the central valley.
Not all Republicans are wacko crazy, but they certainly have more than their fair share.
Albert Einstein : Nature shows us only the tail of the lion. But I do not doubt that the lion belongs to it even though he cannot at once reveal himself because of his enormous size. #Leaders and Leadership
You’re welcome back North, but not with those right-wing nuttia views. Oh, and we value education up here, so you will have to pay more in taxes.
Thanks again for the post, Joe. Scary stuff.
Can I put in a small request for you to use ºC as well as ºF for the sake of all your non-American readers? Thanks!
“The Fahrenheit scale is used in the United States, Palau, Belize, Burma, and Liberia for non-scientific applications. Most other countries have adopted Celsius as the primary scale in all use.”
“Hellish heat waves will in fact become commonplace in the coming decades…”
No doubt true. However, I seriously doubt we will have to wait even ONE decade. This past spring, the warmest observed in New Jersey since records began in 1895 in May, “four afternoons saw multiple locations exceeding 90 degrees F, while 12 days saw station maximums of 80 – 89 degrees.”
http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/
Can we please have a Climate Progress betting pool?? Let’s wager on the highest temp. this summer on the Continental US, and I personally would love to have one just for New Jersey…I’m thinking, 110 sometime in August.
I do not expect the temperature increases to continue a steady, linear path. There are too many sinks (like forests and the oceans) that are saturated with heat and greenhouse gases, and dying. I expect temps to abruptly spike.
I could be wrong, of course. I hope.
Last winter, the cold spell was to cold for some plants.
Yet, we thought they would be fine with the heat of the
summer only needing more water on occasion.
So, winter is to cold for some mose southern plants to
migrate north and to hot for some of the traditional
plants of the area?
All the plants/tress in my area look like they have a hard time keeping up with the changing environment. It wasn’t particular hot yet but there was a short hail storm 4 weeks ago and leafs seem disorganized ever since.
Many limbs are leaf less or leafs look unhealthy, dry, infected or less green …
Well,
even though those two trees were gifts, that didn’t make it
through the cold spell, it was a bet that after planting and
watering, those would grow to look as nice as the ones that
those were taken from. The donor stock has better root base,
but, we lost that bet.
Sorry, to hear of the plant troubles of other areas.
It’s still nice to see things doing well from my care.
@ Mike Roddy
As a Georgian, that is an appealing but sadly unfeasible option. Instead, I’m about to start studying environmental law in hopes of actually fighting some of the lunacy running rampant in our congress and courts. There are enough AGs and corporate lawyers out there using their skills to fight meaningful change. If I can play even a tiny role in combating that, it will be a dream come true.
We have to keep fighting, keep hoping, keep spreading information as far and wide as we can. We have no other choice.
prokaryote and Raul, an anonymous commenter on my blog put up this link last night, from the Vermont state Forest Biology Lab:
http://www.vtfpr.org/protection/documents/VTFPR_June2010PineNeedlecastUpdate.pdf
about trees in Vermont, describing conifers with damaged needles, and deciduous tree leaf drop – all of which was blamed on the weather, fungal disease and insects…as usual!
I called it: “pure, unadulterated, typical professional forestry nonsense”
Because even the EPA is aware, as quoted in a draft report to them from the Integrated Nitrogen Committee here (http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/2010/06/back-to-nitrogen.html): “Impacts of Reactive Nitrogen on Terrestrial Ecosystems include…Ozone-induced predisposition of forest trees to damage by fungal diseases and insect pests”.
Translated, that means that atmospheric toxins from fuel emissions are the underlying cause of tree “decline”, itself a forestry euphemism for “gradual but inevitable, irreversible death.”
Wit’s End, I know there are some really smart people
who have really studied cause and effect.
But, meme who is not so smart as I was before I didn’t
take care of myself, never the less spent time pulling
up many tiny seedlings from under trees I liked and
planted those seedlings many places and gave many away
to people who also liked those type nut trees. I saw
many mowed over just cause. So prescribed death, just
cause, is historical for me as well.
Thanks, James, #38. I’m glad you saw my whimsical comment in the right spirit. Of course there are lots of dedicated and enlightened people like you in the South, and we need you.
My own family is from Mississippi- I had a dotty old great aunt who was a toddler in the Civil War, and talked constantly about General Sherman burning her town. Many years later we learned that Sherman was never there. Priceless! There are more characters in the South than the rest of North America combined.
Peter, #29, sorry I missed the AZ, and thanks for another good comment. We need Lynas to write a sequel or update to his book.
Wit’s end, i agree with fuel emission as one cause, but fungal disease is on the rise too. Earth systems are interconnected.
Interesting is atmospheric chemistry contents – projections and oil products & additives in particular. And how the biosphere reacts to climate/weather pattern change, which can lead to plaque (insects or fungus).
I do appreciate Paul’s concern for older people, a segment of the population who tend to disfavor clean energy legislation as does Senator Broun. Let’s explore his concern a bit. If the inability to avoid the electricity for air condition is important, then avoiding brownouts and blackouts are even more critical. Being from Georgia, I’m sure Senator Broun in sensitive to the risk of drought and how it can compromise coal-fired and nuclear-powered plants. Thus, he and the people for who he is expressing concern probably are strong supporters of President Obama’s and Secretary Chu’s call for more research and development by the energy industry into technologies that eliminate such jeopardy, right?
Teacher’s in the elementary grades on up having to learn new tricks?
Fl. Dep. of Ed. say’s and Fed. Ed. say’s that learning of energy
is important.
Gardeners can see a difference in what they can grow as to climate change.
Growing a windmill palm here in inland Connecticut- not possible 30 years ago
its that subtle but still profound difference that says its is warming- and faster then many can imagine.
Rep. Broun must have a diploma from the Sarah Palin School of Grammar and Syntax.