Where will Republican votes for an energy bill that contains some carbon pricing mechanism come from?
Lindsey Graham remains as incoherent as ever. On the one hand he has said he is open to a cap on emissions from utilities (see “It’s alive!“), but on the other he has said he wants to push it “next year.” Ma±ana, ma±ana, ma±ana.
I’m still scoring him as a “yes,” if a bill actually comes up for a vote.
The next two likeliest Republicans to support some sort of cap are the Maine Senators — Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. Both have spoken out strongly about the need for climate action. Indeed, Snowe cochaired an international Task Force that endorsed a 2°C target back in 2005 (see “Meeting the Climate Challenge“).
But as we have seen with Graham, that doesn’t mean on any given day you can count on their votes. Indeed, all three voted for Murkowski’s Dirty Air resolution that would have blocked the EPA from regulating greenhouse gas emissions as required by the Supreme Court. Taking the optimistic spin, that means they prefer Congressional action EPA regulation.
The good news is that EnergyGuardian (subs. req’d) reports today:
A key potential Republican backer of climate legislation, Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, said Tuesday that a utility-only cap would be acceptable to her. She was, however, not optimistic one could be adopted.
“It’s uncertain as to whether or not we have enough of a consensus even to move on a limited version of (an emissions reduction bill)” she said.
So let’s call that two GOP votes.
In a story oddly titled, “Republicans to tell Obama to drop carbon caps,” ClimateWire (subs. req’d) reports that
Collins, of Maine, will emphasize the role of a bill she introduced with Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) that would cap carbon emission from refiners and other upstream emitters. The “cap and dividend” bill would direct 75 percent of the money raised by selling carbon permits to taxpayers.
“I’m going to tell [Obama], as I’ve said many times before, that I think cap and trade is dead. If he wants to do a clean energy bill, he needs a different approach,” Collins said.
Hmm. Has no one explained to Collins that her bill caps carbon emission and then allows regulated entities to trade emissions? Even NASA’s James Hansen says “the Cantwell-Collins bill, is still a cap-and-trade scheme, and its low carbon price and offset-type projects create little incentive for clean energy and would have only small impact on carbon emissions.”
Certainly one can design a utility cap that allows no more trading than Cantwell-Collins. So I am going to put her down as a ‘yes’ and say that is three GOP votes.
I also believe one can design a comprehensive energy bill with a utility cap that gets 57 Democratic votes — particularly if the President puts the same kind of muscle behind it that he did for the healthcare bill. Moreover, I would expect a reasonable shot at other Republicans, starting with Scott Brown (R-MA) and George LeMieux of Florida.
Indeed, E&E News (subs. req’d) reported that LeMieux was downright enthusiastic about the idea (for a Republican):
LeMieux said yesterday that he had yet to decide on the latest proposal.
“I’m just listening and learning and talking with a lot of folks,” he said. “I think energy independence and alternative energy is one of the most pressing issues facing this country, so I think it is time to deal with it.”
Remember, LeMieux is a seat warmer and stalking horse for Charlie Crist, who is now basically running as a Democrat in Florida! So he would have a hard time voting against a well-crafted spill bill.
As wholly inadequate as it is to address the climate challenge, I really hope that a utility cap comes up for a vote. The nation has an urgent need to start pricing carbon and jumpstarting the transition to a clean energy economy. We need to force Senators to go on the record for this mildest of climate actions, to see whether all of their talk about clean energy, energy independence, and pollution reduction is more than just talk.
- The central question for 2010: Will anti-science ideologues be able to kill the bipartisan climate and clean energy jobs bill?
- In the mother of all flip-flops, Graham rejects his own climate bill, endorses Lugar’s “half-assed energy bill,” which means he “just made the problem worse”