Joe Bastardi, worst long-range forecaster on Earth, asserts “The coming cooling of the planet overall will return it to where it was in the ’60s, ’70s, and ’80s.”

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"Joe Bastardi, worst long-range forecaster on Earth, asserts “The coming cooling of the planet overall will return it to where it was in the ’60s, ’70s, and ’80s.”"

More BS: “The vast majority of the long-range private sector meteorologists can see what is coming down the road and agree with me.”

Joe Bastardi is “the chief hurricane and long-range forecaster at AccuWeather and a national bodybuilding competitor.”  I can’t speak to his physical strength but he bench-presses a staggering amount of anti-science disinformation (see “Joe Bastardi can’t read a temperature anomaly map“).

To switch metaphors, he has now snowed his readers with a blizzard of inane predictions.

At StageCollege.com, his piece, “The Weather Year of a Lifetime,” argues he will never live to see another summer like this one.  At his European blog, he says, “And for the ministers of propaganda on this matter that don’t understand how this works, you will see NEXT SUMMER has the highest amount of sea ice since the early part of last decade.”  Seriously!

His predictions are based on his love of the satellite temperature data, which he simply doesn’t understand.  He uses Roy Spencer’s plot of the UAH data:

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_10.gif

Yet even eyeballing this data you can see the long-term trend is upwards.  And NOAA points out that both satellite data sets show about the same amount of warming as the land-based record, “which increased at a rate near 0.16°C/decade (0.29°F/decade) during the same 30-year period” “” once you remove the expected stratospheric cooling from the satellite records (see NOAA discussion here).

But here is Bastardi:

This past winter, now this summer and this hurricane season… well, I will never get a chance at hitting such major extreme weather events in the U.S. again. I don’t plan on dying anytime soon; it’s just that as far as the overall pattern recognition skills I use to come up with my ideas go, they will never line up like this again.

I realize there may have been individual events that outstrip individual events of this past year: bigger hurricanes, higher record highs, lower record lows, a snowstorm that might be bigger for a place, etc. But in terms of the frequency of headline-grabbing weather, it won’t happen again in my lifetime. Here I am with 35 years of experience with the weather (45-50 if you count all the schooling my dad gave me with his insight when I was younger) that has reached its peak.

This is it folks.  We’ve peaked in extreme weather!

The coming cooling of the planet overall will return it to where it was in the ’60s, ’70s, and ’80s. And less heat over such a large area means less potential for the fight-backs that occur to cause the extreme in such a prolonged focused manner.

Now, I have often defended people that disagree with my global warming ideas because if I were looking at what they were looking at, and nothing else, then I would believe it too! But I have read and respect the other side of the argument, and it leaves me with the chance to make the forecast knowing not only what they know, but also what I know.

To me, it’s a matter of who is right and wrong. But in the circle of competitive forecasters I am in, the vast majority of the long-range private sector meteorologists can see what is coming down the road and agree with me. Many of these people have masters and Ph.D.s, but they are involved in work that requires them to prove enough merit, that they are restrained. It’s very competitive.

We all understand the same thing: The Pacific is cooling. The Atlantic will start doing so in 10-15 years. Then the global temperature come down and we have the satellites to measure it without data readjustment.

Yes, Bastardi apparently not only believes this nonsense, he believes the vast majority of private sector meteorologists agree with him, which is almost certainly not true — see “TV weathercasters know which way the wind blows” — but it does suggest that in private conversations with Bastardi, many of his colleagues humor him, perhaps because they don’t want to listen to his Bastardi-zations of Shakespeare (see bel0w)

For the record, the satellites most definitely need data adjustment.  How does Bastardi think Spencer and Christy screwed up the satellite data for so long in the first place (see “Should you believe anything John Christy and Roy Spencer say?“).

And for the record, the PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation] and AMO [Atlantic multidecadal oscillation] are “oscillations” and the data make clear that neither of those can explain a long-term trend “” hence the “O” for oscillation.

There is simply no serious (or non-serious) possibility that the planet will “return” to the temperatures of the ’60s, ’70s, and ’80s in anyone’s lifetime as a matter of climatology — and the chances it would do so for even one year shrink with every passing year (absent a supervolcano):

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif

It is incomprehensible that Accuweather has Bastardi as their chief long-range forecaster.

Back to the European blog, home of the weirdest mixed climate metaphors, like “The Pickett’s charge of global warming heading for its high water market”:

And for the ministers of propaganda on this matter that don’t understand how this works, you will see NEXT SUMMER has the highest amount of sea ice since the early part of last decade. Sad to say the ice will rebuild… two steps forward one step back.But I have observed the cackling of delight at the demise of the ice cap this summer with amusement. Because 1) The THICKNESS OF THE ICE is greater and 2) The Polar temps, courtesy of the cooling that is starting are lower than normal this summer.

The prediction is almost certainly going to fall flat.  We may well seeing more sea ice extent in 2011, but it would be exceedingly unlikely to return to levels seen a decade ago.  He is just wrong about thickness — he must be reading WattsUpWithThat (see When things were rotten: Arctic sees record sea ice shrinkage, headed toward record low volume:  On a streetcar named denial, Watts and Goddard assert: “Arctic Basin ice generally looks healthier than 20 years ago”).  There is essentially no chance that we would return to volume levels seen a decade ago — see Arctic death spiral: Naval Postgrad School’s Maslowski “projects ice-free* fall by 2016 (+/- 3 yrs).”

As an aside, here’s an analysis questioning Bastardi’s long-range forecasting ability.

What’s most fitting is to end with some excerpts from his European blog’s ‘poetry':

Friends, Romans, Citizens of the World, lend me your laptops.
For I come to bury the notion of cyclical warming, not to praise it”¦.
When there was no air conditioning, we created them
It saved lives, did this cause too much warming?
But the Models say Caesar caused Global Warming
and the Models are all honorable and always right”¦.
And they would go and kiss dead Caesars wounds
and dip their napkins in the oil of his SUV
Yes beg a hair of him for memories,
which can be beautiful and yet
what’s too painful to remember, we simply must forget
(Apparently Barbara Streisand assisted Shakespeare in this parallel Rome in writing this. How else could exist that last line?)

That is too painful to remember.  I hope you can forget it.

Did I mention he’s Accuweather’s expert long-range forecaster?

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37 Responses to Joe Bastardi, worst long-range forecaster on Earth, asserts “The coming cooling of the planet overall will return it to where it was in the ’60s, ’70s, and ’80s.”

  1. robert says:

    Gee Joe (Bastardi), with all that WEATHER experience you’ve got, guess I’ll just ignore the rather different interpretation of the data by the National Academies (and every other scientific body on the planet) about CLIMATE physics… Thanks so much for setting us all straight!

  2. Prokaryotes says:

    A bad movie, with bad actors and no relief in sight. We are doomed and the media is hyping the heatwave as victory.

    http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spiegel.de%2Fpanorama%2F0%2C1518%2C704209%2C00.html&sl=de&tl=en&hl=&ie=UTF-8

  3. PSU Grad says:

    Bastardi just flat out lies. This one is a beaut:

    “In February, the hurricane season was played up, before anyone even saw the idea of the El Nino collapsing, and the summer was forecasted hot.”

    Unfortunately for Bastardi, Klotzbach and Gray beat him to it by at least two months: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2009/dec2009/dec2009.pdf.

    Specifically…”We expect to see the moderate to strong El Niño event that is currently in progress diminish by the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.”

    Sorry Joe.

  4. another joe says:

    His accuweather ad needs to be updated.

    Bastardi…

    He’s opinionated…

    He’s passionate…about weather…

    And he’s wrong.

  5. Michael Tucker says:

    Bastardi said:
    “it’s just that as far as the overall pattern recognition skills I use to come up with my ideas go, they will never line up like this again.”

    I’m sorry to hear that his future “pattern recognition skills” will not be as ‘sharp’ as they are now but they have not been working that well when it comes to climate change anyway. You must understand that Bastardi does not admit that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. He does not allow for ANY correlation between atmospheric CO2 concentrations and a warming climate. For him it does not matter if the concentration is 450 ppm or 550 ppm or whatever number you care to mention, it will not warm the planet!

    Bastardi would be comical if this were not such a desperately important issue. This just feeds the arguments of those who will ask their congressional representatives to do nothing to reduce CO2.

  6. sod says:

    the “no adjustments2 claim is plain out stupid.

    the latest adjustment by Spencer was UAH version 5.3 released this february. 2010 was rivaling 1998 in the 5.2 numbers. the adjustment reduced temperatures enough, to stop this year from beating 1998. but basically every month was still second warmest on record.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/03/february-2010-uah-global-temperature-update-version-5-3-unveiled/

    the comment by Bastardi was false and actually plain out stupid.

  7. Rob Honeycutt says:

    People are discovering they can build incredible short term careers denying the nose on the front of their faces.

  8. JRL says:

    sod#6

    Isn’t that called hiding the incline?

  9. villabolo says:

    I haven’t heard much about my favorite clown, Lord Monckton, recently. Any news about his majesty forthcoming? Bastardi is too easy a target.

  10. Ross Hunter says:

    #7 – that’s how I’m seeing it too, from solo punks to the largest corporations. Tactically now it makes sense to tell the increasingly bare-faced lies necessary to skim profit out of a shrinking margin of believers.

    We’ll see more of this in the frantic race for the final end-game profits, consciously or unconsciously. I’m not sure quite how to deal with it.

  11. Lamont says:

    If Bastardi was right that it was the Oceans cyclically heating the atmosphere, that would cause the radiation budget of the Earth to shift where it would be radiating more energy to space than it is absorbing.

    However, observations are that the earth is absorbing more energy than it is radiating to space, which is consistent with the GHG hypothesis and not with the Ocean warming idea.

    Bastardi desperately needs a basic undergraduate-level thermodynamics course.

  12. Lamont says:

    #3:

    Yes, and I called the “IMMINENT COLLAPSE OF THE EL NINO, FILM AT 11″ back on Jan 4th, and I’m not even a professional long range forecaster:

    http://www.scriptkiddie.org/blog/2010/01/04/el-nino-likely-peaking/

    I just looked at what El Nino’s usually do, and suggested that this El Nino would follow basically the same pattern. El Nino’s generally peak in Dec/Jan then and they decay. Predicting this El Nino’s “COLLAPSE” is about as useful as predicting the “COLLAPSE” of sunlight tonight as the sun goes over the horizon. El Nino’s reliably peak and go away.

  13. mike roddy says:

    Has anybody ever watched Bastardi on TV talking about climate? If they had a talk show featuring him, Monckton, and Morano, it would be the biggest hit in the history of Comedy Central.

    Skeptics who have been honestly misled and are just not up to speed on the science would be directed to the show. It would then be Case Closed, since anybody with half a clue could not take any of these guys seriously.

  14. Rob Honeycutt says:

    villabolo @ #9… Monckton got excessively tweaked over Dr Abraham’s detailed take down of his lecture. He apparently brought (or at least tried to bring) a ton of bricks down on Abraham. I haven’t heard much of the dear Lord since then. Dr Abraham took down the Youtube videos that he’d posted but still has the slide presentation up. If anyone is interested you can see it here.

  15. Raul says:

    Great news, I checked the local news for the temperature
    and my outdoor
    thermometer has fixed itself. For weeks this past
    winter it was reading 3 to 5 degrees warmer than the
    local stations. Normally,it should be a couple degrees
    cooler here than in town.

  16. mike roddy says:

    Rob, #14:

    His Lordship will be back, don’t worry. Look at Watts: his Temperature Station Project was proven to be a complete sham, and he’s back on TV like nothing happened. As with Monckton, the audience will be smaller, but as long as somebody is paying attention they’re happy.

  17. Lou Grinzo says:

    Along the same lines as Bastardi, we have a real gem of anti-science over on WUWT. It was posted in late Feb., but Skeptical Science has just picked up the challenge at http://www.skepticalscience.com/SensitivitySensibility1.html

    I suggest everyone here read the (relatively short) Skeptical Science piece and then click through to WUWT and read as many of the comments as you can stand. It’s surreal.

  18. Rob Honeycutt says:

    Mike… Yeah, I know… as much as I wish he would go hide under a rock, and as much as he SHOULD go hide under a rock, I know the dear lord Monckton will insist upon reveling in his infamy.

  19. Rick Covert says:

    Joe Bastardi only serves to confirm the Peter Principle. In order to get promoted up you have to massively screw up. He’s the perfect match to the Wall Street Oracles who chided the rest of us to “…get into the market the sky’s the limit,” philosophy. He’ll be predicting cooling as the cities continue to swelter in the heat. He’s got one thing right though. It will continue to be cool for those who can jet to a cooler place or to those who have the most durable air conditioners.

  20. Dean says:

    Bastardi will be following Dobbs onto talk radio. He could make a mint claiming persecution.

  21. mike roddy says:

    Just went to that WUWT comment section from the Skeptical Science post. Wow. Only Hunter Thompson could sum these guys up:

    “Indeed, we were all snapped like matchsticks in that terrible conflagration- and the unexplainable few who survived, somehow, are now like the victims of some drunken golfing foursome that gets so wiggy and disgusting by the time they finished the First Nine that God sent a lightning bolt down from the black cloudy heavens to hit them like a bomb while they gamboled like maddened sheep on the big wet green at No. 16.

    “Their flesh and their brains and their precious bodily organs were burned to cinders and black-chalk skeletons that will never again have real strength.

    “They will walk in the world forever like some strung-out collection of Ming vases that might crack any time they are touched…”

  22. villabolo says:

    Rob Honeycutt @#14

    Rob, your link is broken.

    By the way, why did Dr Abraham take those videos down?

  23. paulm says:

    I think Colbert should invite him back on the show this weekend…..

  24. MapleLeaf says:

    The UAH anomaly data for June (+0.44 C) are the second highest on record (second only to 1998 at 0.562). Unfortunately, the RSS site has been down for days now, so no alternate data is available yet. I’ll also be very interested to see the GISS global anomaly for June 2010.

  25. Knowingly giving a false weather forecast !?!?

    That’s a crime… or should be.

  26. Richard Brenne says:

    Bastardi must mean the 60s, 70s and 80s of around 55,000,000 BC, during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum.

    And I’ve written about sports for long enough to know that bodybuilding is merely institutionalized narcissism. Come to think of it, so is Bastardi’s entire career.

    If you chained a hundred monkeys to a hundred typewriters after a hundred years they could come up with both Bastardi’s predictions and poem, and I think did.

  27. Dibble says:

    rob @14

    I’m intrigued to see how his Lordship responds to the rather comprehensive public de-bagging by Dr Abraham. His initial response was indignant fury, laced with as much pomposity he could muster after such a severe embarrassment. I’m sure he’ll be back before long, but it does provide a little perspective about the quality of the ‘debate’ to think he was responsible for presenting the contrarian case to the recent senate select committee.
    I sense a real shift in the discourse over the last 3 months. It may be a side effect of the climategate furore, but with the increased scrutiny of the state of scientific knowledge in general following Copenhagen, I think it has ,ironically, left little room for the incoherent nonsense being peddled as credible ‘science’ by his lordship and his ilk.

    Instead, the challenge now is to address the ‘uncertainties’. With the likes of Curry, Pielke, Pielke and Lomborg in the vanguard, the more intelligent debate has clearly moved on from ‘global warming isn’t happening and if it is, it isn’t anthropogenic’ to ‘global warming is happening, it is, in large part, anthropogenic but the scale, timing and regional effects are so uncertain we must know more before limiting carbon emissions’.

    That’s the challenge and it’s the last stand for credible nay sayers.

  28. Esop says:

    They predicted continued cooling from 2008 as well. That didn’t quite happen.
    2011 will probably cool somewhat compared to 2010 if a La Nina develops. However, once the next El Nino comeas along, with the greater solar activity, records will be smashed again. When that happens, probably in 2012 or 2013, it shall be a delight to hear the excuses from the esteemed weatherman.
    Using the UAH data is probably not such a great idea anymore, as they have been tweaked in order to show a lower anomaly. They even switched satellites for the Channel 5 measurement, no longer displaying the 20 year record. This most likely in order to hide the incline and be able to claim that 2010 was cooler than 1998, just as the sponsors/benefactors ordered.

  29. Prokaryotes says:

    With the temperature reaching 103 degrees in Central Park at 3:11 p.m., breaking the former record high of 101 degrees for the day set in 1999, Con Edison officials braced for the greatest demand for power they had ever had to supply.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/07/nyregion/07heat.html

  30. Brooks Bridges says:

    Is there a plot somewhere in which the satellite temperature data is shown with temperature data from other sources? I’ve missed it and think it would be interesting to see.

    My daughter and several of her classmates wrote far more coherently than Bastardi when in the 4th grade. How did he ever rise to his current level of incompetence?

    I was surprised to find that the Accuweather climate change site carries a number of news stories such as we find on Climate Progress – including Dr. Michael Mann’s exoneration by the Pennsylvania State University. All in direct opposition to Bastardi’s position. Must be an interesting place to work.
    http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/climatechange/

  31. Turboblocke says:

    BB at #30 try http://www.woodfortrees.org interactive graphs. Make sure you read the notes as they explain amongst other things the different baseline years.

  32. Esop says:

    #30: True about Accuweather. Brett Anderson’s site there is actually very good.

  33. caerbannog says:

    This is a bit off-topic, but not too much. The hook here is “incompetence”. Joe Bastardi, like most global-warming deniers, is completely incompetent when it comes to climate science.

    The deniers’ incompetence is demonstrated in spades in this article describing how the CRU was cleared of any scientific malfeasance in the final round of investigations: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science_and_environment/10538198.stm

    Here are some excerpts (emphasis added):

    “We find that CRU was not in a position to withhold access to such data or tamper with it,” it says.

    “We demonstrated that any independent researcher can download station data directly from primary sources and undertake their own temperature trend analysis”.

    Writing computer code to process the data “took less than two days and produced results similar to other independent analyses. No information from CRU was needed to do this”.

    Sir Muir commented: “So we conclude that the argument that CRU has something to hide does not stand up”.

    Asked whether it would be reasonable to conclude that anyone claiming instrumental records were unavailable or vital code missing was incompetent, another panel member, Professor Peter Clarke from Edinburgh University, said: “It’s very clear that anyone who’d be competent enough to analyse the data would know where to find it.

    “It’s also clear that anyone competent could perform their own analysis without let or hindrance.”

    Does anyone else here get the impression that the CRU investigators are more than a bit disgusted with the deniers at this point?

  34. Rob Honeycutt says:

    villabolo @ #22… Just delete the last backslash from the url and the link is fine. (Maybe a moderator can fix that for me.) Or click here. See if I get it right this time.

    Dr Abrabam only told me that he took down the Youtube videos because the “attention” he was getting was uncomfortable. The second hand information that I heard was that a lot of phone calls related to his video were coming in to the school’s president and dean. It’s ironic because I don’t think his video got anything more than about 1000 views, and most of those never got past the first 2 videos in the series of 10.

  35. Raindog says:

    I think the steroids are getting to him

  36. Caleb says:

    Raindog,

    Bastardi has always been against steriod use. Please stay on topic and don’t resort to silly attacks.

  37. Richard Brenne says:

    Caleb (#36) – I don’t know anything about Bastardi and steroids per se, but I do know that as a competitive sport bodybuilding has been built on steroids more than any other to the point where it probably wouldn’t have existed in seriously moneyed competition without them.

    It is the easiest thing in the world for anyone to say that they’re against steroids, but if their entire pathetically preening, completely narcissistic “sport” is based at the competitive level on steroids, then the fact that they’re a bodybuilder at all is silly, as is his poetry and as are his predictions.

    Bastardi might be looney and ignorant or clever and conniving, but whatever his motivations there will be countless suffering generations that curse everyone who worked as hard as they could to continue the reckless burning of fossil fuels.

    It is Bastardi who would be relentlessly silly if his views weren’t so dangerous, and it is Bastardi who has done everything in his power to put and keep himself in the public eye.

    So an off-handed joke is not the end of the world and is in fact on-topic in this context. Not examining the character of those making outrageous and ultimately destructive claims might seem civil to us now, but I think all future generations will probably wish we’d used every rhetoric and other tool in our toolkits to change our course from the mindlessly complacent and mentally stagnant one Bastardi relentlessly advocates. Bodybuilding, to me, is just another mindless and usually drug-addled activity that fits into the body of destructive status quo thinking.