New U.S. daily high temperature records in October outpace record lows by nearly 5-to-1
ENDLESS SUMMER: For all the talk of plummeting ocean temperatures, last month was tied for the second hottest October in the UAH satellite record (with 2003, 2006, and 1998 — October 2005 was slightly hotter). And we had the rare event of “two simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30,” as Meteorologist Jeff Masters noted (see below).
In this country, Steve Scolnik of CapitalClimate reports:
… new record high temperatures are outpacing record low temperatures in the U.S. for the 8th consecutive month. Preliminary data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for October show over 1500 new record highs, vs. slightly more than 300 lows, giving a ratio of 4.75 to 1. For the year to date, new highs are exceeding new lows by a ratio of 2.8 to 1….
new record warm minimum temperatures also exceeded record high maximums as they have in nearly every month so far in 2010. The excess of high minimum records was particularly strong in the summer, when as many as 3761 were reported in August alone.
I like the statistical aggregation across the country, since it gets us beyond the oft-repeated point that you can’t pin any one record temperature on global warming. If you want to know how to judge whether the 4.75-to-1 ratio for October is a big deal, here’s what a 2009 National Center for Atmospheric Research study found for 1,800 weather stations in continental US over the past six decades:
NCAR explained their findings this way:
Spurred by a warming climate, daily record high temperatures occurred twice as often as record lows over the last decade across the continental United States, new research shows. The ratio of record highs to lows is likely to increase dramatically in coming decades if emissions of greenhouse gases continue to climb.
“Climate change is making itself felt in terms of day-to-day weather in the United States,” says Gerald Meehl, the lead author and a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). “The ways these records are being broken show how our climate is already shifting.”
So a 4.75-to-1 ratio is indicative of a hot month and 2.8-to-1 indicates a hot year.
Last month, the hottest September in UAH satellite record, puzzled Roy Spencer with its “stubborn” temperatures. He now concedes that this year is likely to tie 1998 for the hottest year in the UAH satellite record:
For those following the race for warmest year in the satellite tropospheric temperature record (which began in 1979), 2010 is still within striking distance of the record warm year of 1998. Here are the 1998 and 2010 averages for January 1st through October 31:
1998 +0.57
2010 +0.54Note that the difference between the two is not statistically significant “¦ just symbolically.
As Spencer’s figure makes clear, even in his much-rejiggered UAH satellite data, the planet just keeps getting hotter, which is especially impressive because we’ve been in “the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century.” It’s just hard to stop the march of manmade global warming, other than by sharply reducing greenhouse gas emissions, that is.
October was definitely a month for the record books of extreme weather (see Masters: “Strongest storm ever recorded in the Midwest smashes all-time pressure records”: ‘Weather bomb’ hits Midwest with power of major hurricane). Masters puts the Atlantic hurricane season — and the unusual late season hurricanes — in perspective:
Tomas’ formation ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s. The intensification of Shary and Tomas into hurricanes today brings the total number of hurricanes this season to twelve, tying 2010 with 1969 and 1887 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes, and I don’t think we’ll beat that record this year!
The formation of Tomas so far south and east this late in the season is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close–it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas’ track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. There have been only two other tropical storms that formed after October 15 south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W: Hurricane Jose, which was a tropical storm in that region on October 18, 1999, and Tropical Storm Nicolas, on October 16, 2003….
Another unusual aspect of Tomas’ formation is that we now have two simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year–1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 – 10.
But this kind of extreme weather is going to be the norm this decade. A recent analysis by NASA’s James Hansen concluded, “Given the association of extreme weather and climate events with rising global temperature, the expectation of new record high temperatures in 2012 also suggests that the frequency and magnitude of extreme events could reach a high level in 2012″ “” see Hansen: Would recent extreme “events have occurred if atmospheric carbon dioxide had remained at its pre-industrial level of 280 ppm?” The “appropriate answer” is “almost certainly not.” So 2012 may feel a lot like 2010.
For new readers, here’s the caption on the top figure:
Total number of daily high temperature, low temperature, and high minimum temperature records set in the U.S. for spring 2010 (March-April-May) and monthly from June through October 2010, data from NOAA National Climatic Data Center, background image © Kevin Ambrose (www.weatherbook.com). Includes historical daily observations archived in NCDC’s Cooperative Summary of the Day data set and preliminary reports from Cooperative Observers and First Order National Weather Service stations. All stations have a Period of Record of at least 30 years.
Related Posts:
- Labor Day 2060: Endless summer
- Masters: “It appears that this year’s record [sea surface temperatures] have significantly expanded the area over which major hurricanes can exist over the Atlantic.”
- NASA: The 12-month running mean global temperature has reached a new record in 2010: “We conclude that global temperature continued to rise rapidly in the past decade” and “there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.20°C/decade that began in the late 1970s.”
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Language Intelligence: Lessons on persuasion from Jesus, Shakespeare, Lincoln, and Lady Gaga
UAH temps have been going straight up over the past week, and have just once again surpassed the all time record (channel 5). The ocean temps also warmed over the past few days and are now climbing.
So: The troposphere is at the highest temp ever recorded for this date, along with increasing ocean temps. This during the second strongest La Nina on record, max cooling effect from the lowest solar minimum, negative PDO, etc.
Could Gavin have been wrong regarding the 120% figure? Perhaps it is higher than that?
I couldn’t find a link to the cartoon but found this:
The Peanuts’ character Lucy once complained about her bad day to Charlie Brown who replied, “Well, you know, life is full of ups and downs,” to which Lucy protested, “Why can’t I have all ups? I want ups, ups, and more ups!”
I doubt if Lucy was talking about temperatures, but she may yet have her day.
http://www.unionuniversitychurch.org/2008/11-02-08.htm
Need to do Al Gore all over again, with a ‘new’ Gore: just as the news media needs to start over again so do climate Hawks with the basic education, and, unfortunately we need some new spokesmen and spokeswomen.
Could California’s retiring Governor schedule some kind of summit to gain sufficient attention?
Joe, you startled me. I think of US temperatures as being the fall back article topic for denier websites.
You’re right, of course. The Meehl high-v-low study only covers the continental US. But its extension over time compensates for its being regional, and not global.
I’d given up watching amsu temps channel 5 after the long fall. I realized that it’d turned around only after I saw that Intrade’s odds had turned around.
[JR: Glad I can still startle! As I said, I post this because it represents so much aggregated data in space and time.]
I know very well that you can’t look at a local weather phenomenon and draw any conclusions about Global Climate. At the same time, when we moved to Colorado in 2005 I chose a high altitude location because I was fully aware of climate forecasts.
I have to say that this late summer and fall have been wonderfully warm. As long as we keep using Sevin to ward off the mountain pine beetles we may be able to survive this climate change reasonably well.
Esop, I was wondering when la niña was going to really kick in. So far here we’ve had some heavy rain, but the temps have been above average. Yesterday we nearly broke a record from 1931 (positive PDO, positive ENSO, not sure what phase solar was in). Hate to think what it’ll be like when we get everything in it’s warm phase combined with the amplified greenhouse effect.
Ben, a Gore replacement might not be a bad idea if wider appeal is an issue at this point. And since the situation looks increasingly urgent, but is rarely on the political radar as such, I’d still like to see something similar to the AMA for climatology. Maybe then researchers would be able to respond quickly with a more unified voice on the science, it’s misrepresentation, and policy issues. So far the closest we seem to have is the AMS or the NAS, which look a bit lacking in the area of actively educating (including via mainstream media) and advising on the risks of rapid climate change.
Oregon Stream @6;
What Climate Scientists are going to need is a lot of lawyers and someone to tell them that they must stand together or the GOP will frighten them into silence with a witch hunt the likes of which we haven’t seen since Joe McCarthy.
This time around there might be no credible media opposition.
In this graph:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps
It seems to me that October 2010 was significantly warmer than 1998, and slightly warmer than October 2005 and October 2009…
… that is, THE WARMEST OCTOBER ON RECORD!
Yet the Roy Spencer anomaly monthly timeseries graph doesn`t show that.
How could the two graphs contradict each other? Are not both from UAH?
Which one to believe?
Any idea?
[JR: You are looking at Channel 4. Look at channel 5.]
Broken link.
Try here:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
From Peru,
Which graph are you referring to? Channel 5?
Also, 1998 didn’t have the warmest October on record, nor did last year (I assume you mean 2005).
I myself have tried predicting monthly anomalies by using the data text file (click on “Show data as text” link at the bottom) to get the difference between 2010 and 2009, averaged over the month, then adding this to the actual 2009 monthly anomaly to predict the anomaly for 2010; for September, UAH was about 0.1°C warmer than I expected with RSS much closer (but still warmer). Most likely because they apply adjustments to the raw satellite data.
With regards to the AMSU temperature site, how come Channel 5 is from the Aqua satellite (changed earlier this year from NOAA-15), yet the other channels are still from NOAA-15? Also, to measure lower troposphere temperatures, I would think that they would use a combination of Channels 4 and 5, since Ch 5 (600 mb level) alone is closer to the mid-troposphere, at ~500mb (Ch 4 appears to be at 900 mb).
Taking a break from the bludgeoning of election returns, it’s amazing how you can still focus on science while also focusing on the elections and climate change solutions, like a perpetual plate-twirler on the Ed Sullivan Show.
The 2 to 1 (actually 2.04 to 1) ratio of heat to cold records in the contiguous 48 states from January 1, 2000 to the end of 2009 is expected to rise to 20 to 1 by 2050 and 50 to 1 by 2100 with business as usual, so a year-to-date with 2.8 to 1 and an October with 4.75 to 1 isn’t surprising in a record or near-record warm year (since records have been kept) globally.
But in addition to all the positive feedbacks, both accounted for but more likely unaccounted for, there could also be economic collapse that cripples aviation and fossil fuel burning. While that would be good news, although too late, for CO2 emissions, the lack of contrails from jets and particulates from all fossil fuel burning might create a much larger jump than solar maximums combined with El Nino and other natural cycle factors.
Of course that might mean that billions more burn trees as fuel which might send up smoke, a different kind of particulate, but then there wouldn’t be nearly as many trees to absorb CO2.
Here in Portland Channel 8′s weather reporter Matt Zaffino said yesterday, “It isn’t surprising to see the snow level climb to 12,000 feet (751 feet above the summit of Mt. Hood, Oregon’s highest mountain) during a La Nina year.”
I’d be surprised if the snow level has been at 12,000 feet very often in any November – although I’m not sure how to look this up (anyone know, or better yet, care to look it up for me?).
The West Coast has had a series of Pineapple Express events aiming from Bella Coola, British Columbia (midway between Prince Rupert and the northern tip of Vancouver Island) the last weekend in September to the one that hit northern Washington and southern B.C. today. It’s like an out-of-control fire hose is aimed at somewhere on the West Coast most of the last half-dozen weekends, with I’m sure more to come.
With 4 per cent more water vapor in the atmosphere and Anthro-Earth’s oceans heated by the equivalent of 190,000 nuclear power plants since 1970, it’s only surprising to those not paying attention, which evidently includes essentially all TV meteorologists and the vast majority except those posting, commenting and linked to here.
I am a Rice Farmer in California. We have just experienced one of the coldest summers on record and my crop is a disaster. If Global Warming continues here in California, I may have to move somewhere warm like Minnesotta.
Hey Rice Dog,
That’s an example of why I personally prefer the term, “Climate Destabilisation”.
Cheers – John
Rice Dog, the cold summer (mainly coastal areas, it was warmer inland) was due to colder than normal water in the Pacific, which in turn is due to the PDO. No, not the one that deniers always claim will cause global cooling (as they have done for the last few years; the only possible connection is the cooling period in the 1950s-1970s, which is known to be from aerosols (it only affected the Northern Hemisphere), which happened to coincide with the last -PDO phase), but the one that does affect climate regionally. In fact, it may have contributed to Japan’s warmest summer on record because a -PDO has warmer water in the western Pacific (this also brings up the question of whether patterns like the PDO will intensify with warming).
Looks like Momma Eaarth has ALREADY started making known her opinion about the 2010 election(see my comment in the election story).
Now that the rainy season has officially begun here in Seattle, we’ve gone from hovering around 25% above average rainfall for the year to hovering around 33% above average rainfall for the year. Oh and Nov started out like it would easily make it the THIRD year in a row where the month as a whole was 5 degrees above average.I want my winter back.
RE # 3
Ben keep plugginig your comment:
“unfortunately we need some new spokesmen and spokeswomen.”
I am saying the same repeatedly with no takers.
If faux noise can buy whomever it wants to propagandize why cant we do the same. I would like to see Gen Powell, Jim Cramer General Zini,(among others) out on stage telling us the house is on fire and the fuel tank is about to blow.
John McCormick
November 2, 2010
Arctic ice extent remains low despite rapid growth
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
“After reaching its minimum extent on September 19, Arctic sea ice grew rapidly through the first half of October before slowing down late in the month. Even with that rapid growth, ice extent for October was the third lowest for that month in the satellite record. Air temperatures in the Arctic were higher than normal.”
“Underwater Suspension Tunnels” bring back the record lows!
Rice Dog (#13) – There’s a reason we call it “global” warming and not “Rice Dog’s Rice Farm” warming. It’s the increase in global average temperatures we’re talking about. That doesn’t necessarily mean a warmer than average season every place in every season, including your farm. I’m just curious if your comment was sincere.
Richard Byrne (#20)- I think you will find, if you read the article, is that it refers to temps in the continental U.S. Rice Dog’s comment is not as dumb as you make out. I wonder if your comment was thought through.