Climate

NASA explains how Europe can be so cold amidst the hottest November and hottest year on record

How did we get record-breaking November warmth in the middle of a strong La Ni±a that would normally cool global temperatures (as it did in the fall of 1998, see lower right figure, blue line)?  Is the answer the Arctic sea ice death spiral 2010?  And is the loss of Arctic sea ice also responsible for the frigid European temperatures?

NASA’s James Hansen, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato and Ken Lo answer these questions in “2010 “” Global Temperature and Europe’s Frigid Air,” which I repost below with the original figures:

Figure 1 - Global maps of temperature anomaly. See caption

Figure 1: (a) January-November surface air temperature anomaly in GISS analysis, (b) November 2010 anomaly using only data from meteorological stations and Antarctic research stations, with the radius of influence of a station limited to 250 km to better reveal maximum anomalies.

Figure 1(a) [click to enlarge] shows January-November 2010 surface temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-80) in the preliminary Goddard Institute for Space Studies analysis. This is the warmest January-November in the GISS analysis, which covers 131 years. However, it is only a few hundredths of a degree warmer than 2005, so it is possible that the final GISS results for the full year will find 2010 and 2005 to have the same temperature within the margin of error.

As described in an in-press paper at Reviews of Geophysics (see summary PDF) that defines the GISS analysis method, we estimate a two-standard-deviation uncertainty (95 percent confidence interval) of 0.05°C for comparison of global temperatures in nearby recent years. The magnitude of this uncertainty and the small temperature differences among different years is one reason that alternative analyses yield different rankings for the warmest years. However, results for overall global temperature change of the past century are in good agreement among the alternative analyses (by NASA/GISS, NOAA National Climate Data Center, and the joint analysis of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit).

Figure 1(b) shows November 2010 surface temperature anomalies based only on surface air measurements at meteorological stations and Antarctic research stations. In producing this map the radius of influence of a given station is limited to 250 km to allow extreme temperature anomalies to be apparent. Northern Europe had negative anomalies of more than 4°C, while the Hudson Bay region of Canada had monthly mean anomalies greater than +10°C.

The extreme warmth in Northeast Canada is undoubtedly related to the fact that Hudson Bay was practically ice free. In the past, including the GISS base period 1951-1980, Hudson Bay was largely ice-covered in November. The contrast of temperatures at coastal stations in years with and without sea ice cover on the neighboring water body is useful for illustrating the dramatic effect of sea ice on surface air temperature. Sea ice insulates the atmosphere from ocean water warmth, allowing surface air to achieve temperatures much lower than that of the ocean. It is for this reason that some of the largest positive temperature anomalies on the planet occur in the Arctic Ocean as sea ice area has decreased in recent years.

The cold anomaly in Northern Europe in November has continued and strengthened in the first half of December. Combined with the unusual cold winter of 2009-2010 in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, this regional cold spell has caused widespread commentary that global warming has ended. That is hardly the case. On the contrary, globally November 2010 is the warmest November in the GISS record.

Figure 2(a) illustrates that there is a good chance that 2010 as a whole will be the warmest year in the GISS analysis. Even if the December global temperature anomaly is unusually cool, 2010 will at least be in a statistical tie with 2005 for the warmest year.

Figure 2: Global surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1951-1980 mean for (a) annual and 5-year running means, and (b) 60-month and 132-month running means. In (a) the 2010 point is a preliminary 11-month anomaly. Green vertical bars are two-standard-deviation error estimates, as discussed in our Reviews of Geophysics paper. (View large PDF)

Figure 2(b) shows the 60-month (5-year) and 132-month (11-year) running-mean surface air temperature in the GISS analysis. Contrary to frequent assertions that global warming slowed in the past decade, as discussed in our paper in press, global warming has proceeded in the current decade just as fast as in the prior two decades. The warmth of 2010 is especially noteworthy, given the strong La Nina that developed in the second half of 2010. The La Nina, caused by unusually strong easterly equatorial winds, produces the cool anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean as cold upwelling deep water along the Peruvian coast is blown westward along the equator.

Figure 3 - Line plots of European winter and summer seasonal temperature anomal, 1880-2010. See captionFigure 3: Temperature anomalies relative to 1951-1980 for the European region defined by 36°N-70°N and 10°W-30°E. (View large PDF)

Back to the cold air in Europe: is it possible that reduced Arctic sea ice is affecting weather patterns? Because Hudson Bay (and Baffin Bay, west of Greenland) are at significantly lower latitudes than most of the Arctic Ocean, global warming may cause them to remain ice free into early winter after the Arctic Ocean has become frozen insulating the atmosphere from the ocean. The fixed location of the Hudson-Baffin heat source could plausibly affect weather patterns, in a deterministic way “” Europe being half a Rossby wavelength downstream, thus producing a cold European anomaly in the trans-Atlantic seesaw. Several ideas about possible effects of the loss of Arctic sea ice on weather patterns are discussed in papers referenced by Overland, Wang and Walsh.

However, we note in our Reviews of Geophysics paper in press that the few years just prior to 2009-2010, with low Arctic sea ice, did not produce cold winters in Europe. The cold winter of 2009-2010 was associated with the most extreme Arctic Oscillation in the period of record. Figure 3, from our paper in press, shows that 7 of the last 10 European winters were warmer than the 1951-1980 average winter, and 10 of the past 10 summers were warmer than climatology. The average warming of European winters is at least as large as the average warming of summers, but it is less noticeable because of the much greater variability in winter.

Finally, we point out in Figure 3 the anomalous summer warmth in 2003 and 2010, summers that were associated with extreme events centered in France and Moscow. If the warming trend that is obvious in that figure continues, as is expected if greenhouse gases continue to increase, such extremes will become common within a few decades.

A copy of this webpage text is also available as a PDF document.

Reference: Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, and K. Lo, 2010: Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys., in press, doi:10.1029/2010RG000345.

— James Hansen, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato and Ken Lo

JR:  Here’s one more figure from NASA that gives a clearer perspective on the stunning warmth in the Arctic.

Fig 1: Global map

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48 Responses to NASA explains how Europe can be so cold amidst the hottest November and hottest year on record

  1. Colorado Bob says:

    The Northern Cryosphere Animation Oct 29 – Dec. 10 , 2010 –

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.color.0.html

  2. Colorado Bob says:

    I read Britain’s leading jack-ass noble impersonator Lord Mockington, was in Cancun, wearing a polar bear suit with a sign that said “I’m Just Fine” .

    I have found, that 9 times out of 10 when a denier makes a claim, all one needs to do is visit the real world and there in nature, a 180 degree event is taking place, or has just taken place.

    So with that in mind, here’s what a bear biologist, University of Alberta researcher Andrew Derocher, said about what the Hudson’s Bay polar bear population experienced in 2010.

    “This year’s been pretty challenging on the population,” said Derocher from Inuvik, N.W.T. “They were early off the ice and now they’re late getting on.

    “Some of these bears have had a very long on-land period. A lot of the bears are just running out of steam.”

    “If you’re a mother that’s nursing cubs, if you run out of energy you stop producing milk,” he said. “Your cubs then have to rely on their own fat stores and because cubs have such low fat stores it eventually means they’re going to die.

    “One of the things that was observed this year is that in at least some family groups the mothers stopped nursing and the cubs died on land. We don’t usually see that.”

    http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Canada/20101208/polar-bears-101208/

    Ice did not begin forming there until Nov. 23 – 24, only half of Husdon’s Bay has ice as I write this.

  3. Peter M says:

    Hudson’s Bay in Canada was 17% frozen late Last month- which on average at the end of November is half frozen. The weather in Europe- and parts of the US will not change the temperature average globally in 2010.

  4. Colorado Bob says:

    This bear story is on the level of all the other grim events this year. Those bears are currently making their way on weak ice. God knows what the ring seal mothers are doing.

  5. Esop says:

    The graphic showing the anomalies around the Arctic is beyond scary.
    Interesting to see how Denier Central (the UK and Scandinavia)are cold islands in the sea of warm anomalies.
    The cold temps have recruited thousands upon thousands of new members to the cult of climate denial that will make sure any meaningful action to limit greenhouse gas emissions is impeded.
    My observation is that a cold November and December have often been followed by a very mild January and February. Last winter was the exception.

  6. Pbo says:

    Hansen states:

    – “However, we note in our Reviews of Geophysics paper in press that the few years just prior to 2009-2010, with low Arctic sea ice, did not produce cold winters in Europe.”

    Actually the winter of 2007/2008 seems warmer than normal in Europe, but the fall and november of 2007 did have cold spells from the Arctic:

    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2010&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2007&year2=2007&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg

    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2010&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=0903&year1=2007&year2=2007&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg

    Cold spells from Arctic in fall and winter may become more frequent – in agreement with the Overland paper and Arctic Report Card it seems.

  7. JCH says:

    My layperson question, is the record warmth for November that NASA is finding going to be found by HadCRUT? On their series, is 1998 going to be exceeded?

  8. Jeff Huggins says:

    Obama to Meet With Executives on Wednesday

    Hey, President Obama is planning to meet with roughly twenty chiefs of major American businesses on Wednesday.

    Check out this article from The New York Times:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/12/us/politics/12obama.html?_r=1&hpw

    Let’s put appropriate pressure on — to make sure that he talks seriously, intensely, and deeply about climate change and the energy transition. If he is talking with twenty leading execs, he should use the Bully Pulpit and do some real conscience-grabbing bullying on the climate issue.

    Perhaps CP can run a post along these lines, and perhaps Roger and GWEN (who correctly want Obama to take more action) can also help out?

    Cheers,

    Jeff

  9. Colorado Bob says:

    Lief –
    On Dec. 6th you made an excellent comment about all this , I lifted it , and stuck it in a posting at NewsVine on the Nov. 16th Potsdam Institute model study of why the lower latitudes will get smacked by arctic blasts.

    More about the ” Global Warming could cool down temperatures in winter ”

    http://coloradobob1.newsvine.com/_news/2010/12/12/5630204-more-about-the-global-warming-could-cool-down-temperatures-in-winter-

  10. espiritwater says:

    Colorado Bob, #2, I just saw this video at “Center for Biological Diversity” website where these little polar bears were going into spasms and dieing because of no food, too skinny and not able to survive the cold (not enough fat). Heartbreaking. It made me mad! Because I want to do something about it and can’t!!

  11. Leif says:

    Colorado Bob, At 10. Thank you Bob. I have another “same thing only different” post stuck in moderation above @ 7.

    Technicality: “Leif”, not “Lief” You are not the first :<)

  12. Pat says:

    JR thanks for the added figure. For the life of me I can not understand why NASA GISS doesn’t give globe type maps in all their reports. These type of images are much more easily understood than the mercator type maps they commonly use, which are, in my view, the worst possible choice.

  13. Michael T. says:

    #12 Pat

    Just go to the “Global Maps” page:
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

    For “Projection type” choose “polar” for the polar views, and click “Make Map”. This can be done for any time period, month etc. To see the maps enlarged, just click on PDF at the bottom of the page under “Downloads”.

  14. Colorado Bob says:

    Leif –

    I will move that “e” from now on buddy. I like your ships. They have a “cork” like design, not see in hundreds of years.

  15. Colorado Bob says:

    espiritwater @ 10

    The bears are a raw nerve with me. The sea ice we’re talking about means hauling out of the water trying to pick your way along with long ledes of water in between. All while starving . The the cubs can’t do that long.

  16. Colorado Bob says:

    Like the walrus pups who used to rest on ice , these bear cubs float down to the bottom of the Arctic , uncounted, unseen. I followed the fall in east Siberia , the Russia bears did not better.

  17. Michael T. says:

    Pat,

    I may have misunderstood your comment, but I agree about the maps shown in the GISS reports. I think GISS needs to show the polar maps more often. They never use them in their reports for some reason. I still prefer the standard maps, but I also think the polar maps would give better perspective on the Arctic and Antarctic regions.

  18. Leif says:

    Colorado Bob, @ 15. Washing State Ferries are very similar. Every boat is a compromise and it starts very early in the design phase of any vessel. Different requirements SHOULD reflect different designs and for the most part do in the nautical world. Although like most areas “tried and true” tends to dominate beyond their efficient life span.

  19. Colorado Bob says:

    About the only arty thing I do these days is animate polar bears. I’ll be needing a picture of Mockington in that bear suit if anyone sees one shoot it to me.

    Bear #339 and the Bear-A-Tones may speak-out about that stunt.

  20. Colorado Bob says:

    I’m going to have this bear introduce the commentary.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWJnLOoMGlk

    Getting 2 other voices as well.
    It writes itself, and picking a fight with this guy should be fun.

  21. JCH says:

    “The preliminary figure for January to October 2010 is 0.52 ºC above the long-term average on the Met Office-Climatic Research Unit (HadCRUT3) dataset, placing it equal with the record-breaking 1998.

    The Met Office annual global temperature forecast for 2010, issued at the COP15 talks in Copenhagen predicted that 2010 was “more likely than not” to be the warmest year. Dr Adam Scaife, head of long range forecasting at the Met Office, said: “The three leading global temperature datasets show that, so far, 2010 is clearly warmer than 2009 despite El Niño declining and being replaced by a very strong La Niña, which has a cooling effect.” …” – Met Office press release

    The Met seems to be saying they think the La Nina will cause November and December to drag 2010 below 1998. The internet is full of that sort of speculation. Given the way they do their series and the record warmth for November, is that still likely?

  22. Colorado Bob says:

    I put the northern cryosphere shot for Nov. 30th. up on a tripod at ImageShack . It goes with that Nov. GISS map . Baffin Bay looks like a warm bath tub.

    http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/5358/picture50.png

    Feel free to use it.

  23. Pbo says:

    From the paper “Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer
    Arctic sea-ice extent” (Francis et. al 2009):

    – “A regression of actual summer sea ice extent with precipitation data yields a noisy yet significant tendency for increased precipitation over much of the region north of approximately 40N”

    A nice video of strange weather in Turkey:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksVkvVu71cY

  24. Colorado Bob says:

    That ice island will be entering the shipping lanes sooner rather than later.

  25. Prokaryotes says:

    Dec 7th 2010 – Surfing time & Forecast
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sJdu_Lmt6I

    Storm in Michmoret harbor 2nd video, Israel 12.12.2010
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQiK_ixEbkw

    Storm, tempete Tel Aviv http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pf1YoVovaoM

    Due to climate change israel is experiencing sand storms http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNMbB2pHnH4

    Winds, rain sandstorms and hail have battered the southern and eastern Mediterranean, killing at least five people, closing ports and disrupting traffic in the Suez Canal. Drought-stricken countries across the Middle East had been praying for rain for weeks when the weather turned violent at the weekend, with at least five people killed as gale-force winds and torrential rain pounded the coastline.

    Winds topped 100km/h and waves reached 10 metres in height as cities in Lebanon and Israel suffered power cuts.

    At least three people were killed in Egypt when a factory collapsed in heavy rain in the densely populated northern port city of Alexandria. Six others were also seriously injured in the collapse, a security official said. Thirty people could have been working in the six-storey factory, he said.

    The storms, which briefly disrupted flight schedules, come after unseasonably high temperatures and a lack of rain ravaged forests across the region and left farmers struggling to survive.

    An Italian container ship was also stranded off Egypt’s northwestern coast of Marsa Matruh after its engines broke down, with 21 crew on board still waiting to be rescued. Vessel owner Stefano Messina told the Italian news agency Ansa on Sunday a tug boat was on its way from Crete to assist the ship, which he said was carrying toxic materials, including paint and resins.

    ‘The cargo is safe and cannot provoke an environmental catastrophe. There are 38 containers of paint and resins,’ Messina was quoted as saying. Rain and hail whipped across Lebanon on Sunday as the long-awaited first snowstorm of the year fell on mountains – good news for the country’s famed ski resorts but leaving many commuters stranded in icy conditions.

    Seaside roads and ports closed on Sunday morning, hours after a 45-year-old woman was killed when a falling palm tree crashed into her car. The Beirut government evacuated several homes on the coast in the south and placed emergency rescue teams on alert. In Israel, the body of the Russian tourist blown into the sea on Saturday had been found, police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said on Sunday.

    Waves of up to seven metres prevented police from carrying out searches for him but ‘his body later washed ashore on one of the beaches nearby’, Rosenfeld said. Two people were also moderately hurt by falling trees.
    The storm began on Saturday, a week after a devastating forest fire killed 43 people near the northern port city of Haifa.

    A Moldovan freighter also went down in stormy seas about 15km from Israel’s port of Ashdod on Sunday, but its 11 Ukrainian crew members were all rescued unharmed. In the Golan Heights, an Israeli-occupied plateau which adjoins Syria, snow and rain were abundant but sandstorms were expected in the south of the country, Israel’s meteorology department said.

    A snowstorm lashed Damascus, disrupting traffic but also bringing some relief from drought which has gripped Syria for the past four years. UN estimates say the drought has affected about 1.3 million Syrians.
    Sandstorms also hit the desert countries of Jordan and Egypt and visibility deteriorated while temperatures plummeted. Jordan was also bracing for heavy rain and snow later in the day, which officials warned could lead to flooding.

    In Egypt, the bad weather forced several ports to close and disrupted traffic in the Suez Canal, which links the Mediterranean to the Red Sea. The waterway was hit by poor visibility and winds of up to 40 knots an hour, said an official at the canal, Egypt’s third-largest source of foreign revenue after tourism and remittances from expatriate workers.

    The authorities barred south-bound ships from entering the waterway, and north-bound traffic from the Red Sea was limited. http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Environment/2010/12/13/Wild_sandstorms_hit_Mideast_551259.html

  26. The new normal: “Arctic Melt Down Is Bringing Harder Winters and Permanently Altering Weather Patterns”
    http://stephenleahy.net/2010/09/13/arctic-melt-down-is-bringing-harder-winters-and-permanently-altering-weather-patterns/

    ….
    This huge mass of warmer air over the Arctic in the late fall not only generates more wind and snow locally, several studies have now documented the impacts on global weather patterns.

    The winter of 2005-6 was the coldest in 50 years in Japan and eastern Eurasia, reported Meiji Honda, a senior scientist with the Climate Diagnosis Group at Japan’s Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. Honda’s studies show that the air over the Arctic was quite warm in the fall of 2005, which altered normal wind patterns, pushing the jet stream further south and bringing arctic cold to much of Eurasia and Japan. He also documented the same mechanism for the colder winters of 2007-8 and 2009-10, he told participants.

  27. Prokaryotes says:

    3 Days ago … must see video

    Middle East Caught In ‘Biblical’ Drought http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0jaVDBr8Vo

  28. Wit's End says:

    This movie is essential to understanding the way our current Dick Cheney-controlled system is hell bent on destroying the entire ecosystem for short term profits…relax and put up your feet before you watch this absolutely amazing and terrifying, essential and compelling film by Josh Fox…and then send him a contribution:

    http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/2010/12/gasland-part-i.html

  29. From Peru says:

    I think that, together with the heat coming from the warm Arctic Ocean, the factor that contributed to record heat in November was a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation in the first two weeks of November, with a strong low pressure area over Siberia:

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_07.fnl.anim.html

    That sucked warm winds from the south over Siberia and to the Arctic:

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfcwnd_07.fnl.anim.html

    Resulting in a broad area of strongly warm anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere:
    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_07a.fnl.anim.html

    In the last week of November the Artic Oscillation went negative and the low pressure over Siberia was replaced by the seasonal wintertime Siberian High. The result was that very cold Arctic air entered Siberia and have since stayed there.

    Also, the related North Atlantic Oscillation went strongly negative, with the usual pattern of high pressure over the Azores(the Azores High) and low pressure over Iceland(the Iceland Low) inverted. In effect, the Azores High almost dissappeared and was replaced by a low pressure area.

    The result was that cold air masses were free to migrate from the Arctic to Western Europe, causing the cold spell there. The upside-down pressure systems also brought warm Atlantic air over Greenland and the Baffin Bay,and toghether with the record low sea ice area there, resulted in extremely warm anomalies there.

  30. From Peru says:

    (Continuation)

    I think that unless the Arctic Oscillation(AO) go positive again over the next weeks, December will be colder than November. Yes, a negative AO bring warm air to the Arctic Ocean and Canada, but the warm area (the Arctic Basin + Northern Canada) is smaller than the area that cools (nearly the entire Euro-Asian Continent).

    I have learned a lot about climate-weather variability in the last months looking at the maps at the NOAA MAP ROOM site:

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/

    The AO-NAO is evident in the Sea Level Pressure and Surface Air Temperature maps. As a final note, when there there was the large anomausly warm area over the Northern Hemisphere a month ago, the UAH Lower Troposphere Temperature at this site:

    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/

    Also showed a warm spike. When that pattern was replaced by the negative AO, the UAH temperatures plummeted.

    What will the weather do for Christmas?

    I have no idea.

  31. Prokaryotes says:

    Still, not everyone in the United States was shivering. Parts of southern California were experiencing record-warm temperatures with high temperatures Sunday above 80 degrees. http://edition.cnn.com/2010/US/12/12/winter.weather/

  32. Colorado Bob says:

    The world wide water pump is running wide open.

    The latest to make my list –
    Seattle ………. Dec. 11 new rainfall record of 1.42 inches beating the old record from 1955 of 1.32 inches. ( 3.58 inches in the last 60 hours) The doppler returns from this storm show 6 to 8 inches in the mountains around the site. This storm set 21 new records in Hawaii . It was preceded by 2 days record high temps in Seattle, which set the snow pack to melting in the mountains.
    Seattle radar –
    http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ATX&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
    Portland radar –
    http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NTP&rid=rtx&loop=yes

    Portland radar shows heavy rain all around Mount Hood.
    It was 55F at 4 : AM in Seattle during this rain today . The 2 heat records I mentioned came on the 8th and 9th were 55F and 56F.

    This storm has melted a great deal of snow pack in the Cascades .

  33. Colorado Bob says:

    Seattle was 10 degrees above the daily avg. high for this date , in the rain, in the dark, in the middle of Dec.

  34. Roger says:

    Jeff (@8), Thanks for mentioning Obama’s planned meeting with key executives on Wednesday, and for suggesting that CP readers “put appropriate pressure on” him. I would encourage all readers of CP to express their views directly to the president by going to http://www.whitehouse.gov (click on “contact us” in the upper right corner of the home page) to send a message, and/or by calling the White House at: 202 456-1111.

    You also mention, correctly, that GWEN wants Obama to take more action. In fact we have been encouraging our supporters and others to do what they can to provide proper encouragement. Like you, we want the president to talk seriously about the reality, importance and urgency of climate change. Climate Progress readers can thus also help by signing GWEN’s petition to Obama, asking him to work aggressively on climate in 2011 at http://www.change.org/global_warming_education_network.

    Finally, GWEN feels that the threat of climate change has become so strong, and the US response so weak, that it is time for all good climate-concerned citizens to come to the aid of their country by becoming involved in some form of strategic, nonviolent direct action that will increase public pressure on the president and the Congress to accelerate climate saving steps, and to stop what we would term “DC climate gridlock!”

    When climate hawks and other species of climate activists are ready to roll, we have a plan of action to suggest. We are in the process of soliciting comments from wise and trusted friends, with the objective of finding the optimal approach and applications.

    Stay tuned for further details, or contact us at 781-863-1400 for more information.

    Warm regards,

    Roger

  35. Demosthenes says:

    I’ve heard Obama will be congratulating ExxonMobil this week on their completion of an expansion to the world’s largest carbon dioxide capture plant, located near LaBarge.

    There are also rumours of a movement to boycott Jeff Huggins…

  36. Colorado Bob says:

    Further research on this event unfolding in the west , I went and looked up some numbers at Mount Hood . The 5:30 PM temp. at the top of Mt. Hood Skibowl was 41 F, with rain showers. The town of Parkdale, OR (Mt Hood) at 1,740 feet reached 57.8 °F Sunday, with 1.18 inches of rain. They went from 32F at midnight, to 55F just after 2 AM . Their temp. chart for yesterday at the bottom, is an exact plot of this water pipe the GOES is showing tonight. That giant white tube of water in satellite loop is 55F coming off the Pacific. It could rain all the way down the Sierra at some very high altitudes. Be glad you ain’t running the Donner Summit tonight.

    http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KORMTHOO2&day=12&year=2010&month=12

  37. Dappledwater says:

    JCH -comment 6 –My layperson question, is the record warmth for November that NASA is finding going to be found by HadCRUT?

    That’s a good point. HADCRUT excludes data from the high polar regions, so one would expect their dataset would be biased very slightly cooler. The anomalous cold in the UK etc, will show up in their dataset, but not the anomalous warmth over the high Arctic. From memory HADCRUT simply assume the global average temp anomaly for that region.

  38. Colorado Bob says:

    West side …… Blue Canyon , Calif. 5282 feet at 2 AM – 51F

    Closer to the top – HUYSINK CA PSD (MADIS) 6596 feet at 2 AM 39F degrees.

    East side …… Donner Lake 5920 feet at 2 AM 30F degrees Reno was 41F degrees.

    I have driven over some high mountains in the dark in winter before. It is very common to warm as you rise in altitude, with the cold air flowing down the valleys.

    There is no cold air flowing down the Sierras tonight.

  39. Colorado Bob says:

    I have driven over some high mountains in the dark in winter before.
    Donner Summit being one them. It should be 10F degrees at Donner Lake in the middle of Dec.

  40. A face in the clouds says:

    Bad news from the Texas House of Representatives election. A Democrat from the big refinery/Klan section of Southeast Texas has just decided to switch parties, giving the Republicans a super majority in the State House. The Senate will still be able to prevent the House from doing something like trying to seize nuclear weapons from Pantex and seceding, but stay tuned and believe your eyes and ears. These boneheads will try and pull a bunch of stuff that will amaze even me.

    Joe, this entry is so far off topic that I’ll understand if you delete it for use in later reports, but yall needed to know about this as soon as possible. My next dispatch may have to come from the freakin’ Alamo.

  41. Bob Doublin says:

    #32 I woke up just after 5 in the U District in Seattle and it was 57F on the Weather Channel for my zipcode. 10 minutes later it was 58F. I watched the downpour at my local Starbucks all morning. Thought sure we had a chance to break the all-time one day rainfall record(a little over 5″) set in Oct 2003

  42. Esop says:

    The deniers are not pleased with the record high temperatures, accusing Hansen of fraud (what else is new..)
    What these clowns haven’t noticed is that even their beloved (for how long?) UAH dataset has shown increasing temperatures since approx. Nov 23rd (and not decrasing as one would expect with the very strong La Nina). Troposphere temps are naturally lagging the surface temps somewhat, so I would not be surprised if December sets a new record in the UAH dataset.
    Logic would dictate that we will see a drop in temps in 2011, but I have a strange feeling that the deniers will be disappointed, as mother nature is truly acting strange these days.

  43. Michael T. says:

    NASA climate scientist Jim Hansen gave a lecture back in September at the University of Toronto:

    Dr. James Hansen on Human-Made Climate Change
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WWu8Gx2fn8

  44. Prokaryotes says:

    Great video, must See, makes me sad to see just 40 views within 14 days.
    These key findings should be aired 24hours till the problem is fixed.

  45. Pbo says:

    #45: In the video, Hansen mention (12:45) that the winter of 2007 and 2008 was normal despite low sea ice coverage. He fails to point out that there was jetstream blocking over Greenland in november 2007 and january 2009. He also says that this pattern is unlikely for the current winter. Well, NOAA got it right in the Arctic Report Card for both 2009 and 2010 (well, so far).

  46. Patrick says:

    Michael T,

    Thanks for the link to the GISS website. I imagine that the folks at GISS want to maintain a standard format for their reports. Doing so may have a number of advantages, but it seems to me that improvements in comunication should trump whatever those advantages whatever they may be. As a format the GISS ‘standard’ map type has the advantages and disadvantages that all flat maps of a globe must have. As you move closer to the poles the images become more distorted. GISS’s other format (the polar view), which seems to be drawn as though you are looking at the globe from a distance though it might be an azimuthal projection, has its own advantages and disadvantages. The obvious point though is that as the anomalies are greatest at the poles it would help to have a clear view of exactly what these anomalies look like. This is the point of my comment.

    As to the standard format that GISS uses I have never been a huge fan of large flat maps of the world as a whole because of the inevitable distortions. I do, of course, understand that not everyone shares my opinion; which is fine with me.