On Eve of New Climate Regs, A Primer on the Federal Greenhouse Gas Regime, Part 1
For 2 years industry officials, states, and environmentalists have had 2 January 2011 circled on their calendars. That’s the date greenhouse gases officially become regulated pollutants under the Clean Air Act””a direct result of a 2007 ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court that carbon dioxide is a pollutant under that law. The Environmental Protection Agency’s effort to control greenhouse emissions will only get more controversial as myriad lawsuits challenge the regime and Republicans, now ascendant in the House of Representatives, seek to stop EPA in its tracks.
A short primer follows, including some explanation of jargon you’ll no doubt hear regularly in the coming years….
Two things begin on Sunday, for the two main regulated sources of greenhouse gas pollution. One involves cars and light trucks, which are responsible for about one-fifth of U.S. heat-trapping emissions. The rules apply to 2012 model vehicles, which can be sold starting Sunday. They must now follow toughened CAFE fuel efficiency standards laid out in May. With industry on board””though there’s some grumbling””these steps are relatively uncontroversial.
The more divisive efforts are for regulating power plants, refineries, and big factories which emit greenhouse gases. Starting Sunday, new facilities require a permit if they are expected to emit 100,000 tons of CO2 (or equivalent greenhouse gas) a year. Existing plants that emit 100,000 or more tons will need a permit in July; starting Sunday existing plants will need permits if they plan to add 75,000 tons of new capacity.
State regulators, with oversight from EPA, serve to enforce the Clean Air Act for all polluters within their borders. In November, EPA released draft “guidance” for states in setting up their regulations for stationary big emitters. The guidance includes a mix of three strategies to cut pollution: using technology to make plants more efficient, switching to more efficient sources of energy (in most cases, from coal to natural gas), or capturing greenhouse gas emissions and storing them underground. (For coal plants, it’s dubbed “Carbon Capture and Storage.”)
In general, EPA requires states to describe how they intend to regulate air pollution. For greenhouse gases, all but eight states have submitted such an implementation plan. Seven say they need more time (some states have until December 2011), while Texas officials say they will not cooperate. One set of draft rules released last week provides a way for the federal government to step in and regulate plants in the meantime.
The other set of rules released govern the program for states that are on board with the new regime. These include a framework for the two main kinds of Clean Air Act permits that facilities need. Those are operating permits, known as “Title V permits,” and permits to modify or build new plants, called “Prevention of Significant Deterioration” permits. Final rules for each are due by May 2012 for power plants and by November 2012 for oil refineries.
But those dates could change””or the deadlines extended indefinitely if Congress decides to intervene. Legal efforts, which ScienceInsider will tackle tomorrow, could also throw a monkey wrench in the works.
Part II: Lawsuits [from ScienceInsider, by Eli Kintisch]
… A number of suits challenge the nascent Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) effort to reduce greenhouse emissions, but the agency has actually been prodded into action by lawyers from states and environmental groups from the other side. The current effort to regulate carbon dioxide, in fact, stemmed from a 1999 suit originally filed by liberal groups against EPA, which eventually led to a Supreme Court decision that EPA had to act since greenhouse gases fell under the purview of the Clean Air Act. Critics of the EPA’s efforts, including the powerful future House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Fred Upton (R-MI), say EPA is engaging in a “power grab.” But the president says they’re just following the law: “The EPA is under a court order that says greenhouse gases are a pollutant that fall under their jurisdiction,” Barack Obama said after he declared legislation on cap and trade dead in the water in the wake of the elections.
Now Obama has turned from pushing cap and trade to “cap no trade” as one critic called it. And the lawsuits are piling up. Most would seek to stop the federal effort, though some put new pressure on EPA or the polluters themselves to stem emissions.
First there are the suits to shut down the EPA’s budding regime.
EPA’s efforts rest on three pillars. Last year the agency finalized an official “endangerment finding” declaring that greenhouse gasses endanger public health or welfare. Then they set up rules to regulate those emissions from cars. Following that they proposed rules to define which sizes of existing or new industrial facilities required regulation, and when.
All three elements are at issue in one mega-case being litigated in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. That case, called Coalition for Responsible Regulation Inc. et al. v. EPA, combines 16 lawsuits which have all been appealed from federal district courts. Two weeks ago, EPA fended off an effort by the litigants to receive a legal “injunction” which would have temporarily blocked EPA from moving forward on the whole program. Sixteen states have weighed in on the side of EPA,, 14 oppose it; enviros are mostly allied with the Obama Administration while a wide variety of pro-business or right-leaning groups side with industry. Briefs on the case, which the judges will hear in parts corresponding to the three pillars, are due some time this spring.
Meanwhile, as ScienceInsider wrote yesterday, Texas has resisted efforts by EPA to either oversee the state’s own regulation of CO2, or step in itself to do so. Earlier this month a court rejected the state’s request to block the EPA’s instruction to state regulators to set up greenhouse gas regulationss. (“Recognizing the proper role of the States, the Clean Air Act declares pollution prevention to be ‘the primary responsibility of States and local governments,’ ” Texas had argued.) Now the state says that new or modified facilities will face a defacto moratorium because they won’t be able to get a permit. EPA says that if the state were to cooperate it could offer those permits. “EPA is offering Texas a life-preserver and, bizarrely, Texas is treating it like a torpedo,” David Doniger of the Natural Resources Defense Council in Washington, D.C., said in a blog entry.
Some cases working their way through the courts could engender new ways to cut emissions. In December, the Supreme Court agreed to take a case in which states and allied land trust organizations have charged that greenhouse gases emitted by a few big power companies constitute a “nuisance” under common law. (Briefs for American Electric Power v. Connecticut, which consolidates three similar lawsuits, are due in late January). Were the court to rule that pollutants did constitute a nuisance, it could give emitters’ opponents a tool apart from the Clean Air Act to tackle greenhouse gases.
But that seems unlikely. Because U.S. Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor sat on an appeals court which heard one of the lawsuits, she will likely recuse herself, leaving the real possibility that the case will receive a 4-4 decision. That would send it back to the appeals level where courts have ruled on the side of the states. But it’s unclear whether the case would get a review from all three appeals courts, which could lower the chances that the “nuisance” tool could come into use. (Plus there’s the fact that the Obama Administration has not sided with the foes of industry as one might expect. Instead it has asked the Supreme Court to send the case back to the appellate court so that it can be reconsidered in light of the new greenhouse gas regulatory regime.)
It’s worth noting that some power companies are not only staying out of court but defending the EPA regime. Earlier this month, west coast utility Pacific Gas and Electric and seven other big power companies wrote in support of the new rules:
The electric sector has known that these rules were coming. Many companies, including ours, have already invested in modern air-pollution control technologies and cleaner and more efficient power plants. For over a decade, companies have recognized that the industry would need to install controls to comply with the act’s air toxicity requirements, and the technology exists to cost effectively control such emissions, including mercury and acid gases. The EPA is now under a court deadline to finalize that rule before the end of 2011 because of the previous delays.
To suggest that plants are retiring because of the EPA’s regulations fails to recognize that lower power prices and depressed demand are the primary retirement drivers. The units retiring are generally small, old and inefficient. These retirements are long overdue.
Chinese: Extreme patterns speak of climate change
The past 12 months saw the most instances of extreme weather in a decade, China’s meteorological authority said on Thursday.
The number of extreme weather events in China has been increasing since 2000. These include extremely high and low temperatures, rainstorms and typhoons.
The country witnessed the most number of such events and suffered the most serious consequences in 2010, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) said at a news conference on Thursday.
This summer, the average highest temperature across China was the highest since 1961, with an average 9.7 days with the highest temperature at or above 35 C, 3.5 days more than in previous years.
Extreme rainstorms followed the hot weather. Ninety-seven weather stations around China reported record-breaking daily rainfall, and 133 stations broke their annual records. Only seven record-breaking daily rainfall figures were reported from 2000 to 2009.
Moreover, more than half of the tropical hurricanes formed typhoons and hit coastal regions in East and South China, marking the highest landfall ratio in history.
“In the past 12 months, we experienced extreme weather more often than in any other year in the past decade. And global warming was largely to blame,” said Chen Zhenlin, director of the emergency response, disaster mitigation and public services department under the CMA.
“The common point of these extreme weather events was their close connection to rain, which results from climate change”.
Extreme weather events have been occurring more often worldwide since the 1950s, and have increased rapidly in the past four decades.
In 2010 exceptional droughts took place in a wide area from North Africa, across the Indian subcontinent to Southwest China and even Australia.
This year South China’s Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, Southwest China’s Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan provinces and Chongqing municipality suffered the most severe drought in 100 years. And in North China’s Shanxi province and East China’s Anhui province, a new round of drought started in September and has not abated.
Previous in TP Climate Progress
Language Intelligence: Lessons on persuasion from Jesus, Shakespeare, Lincoln, and Lady Gaga
Any bets how fast Civilization will collapse?
Will Washington be the next stop for Arnie? January 1, 2011
As Arnold Schwarzenegger’s seven-year reign in California comes to an end, Gerard Wright assesses the legacy – and political ambitions – of the accidental governor.
HE was a larger-than-life figure, and everything about him promised deeds to match his words. So, when he said: ”I decided to run for governor because I got mad … I want to make government more directly accountable to the people”, the voters believed him.
2011 is going to be a strange, frictional year with the Republicans again with the numbers in the House – an astute politician would realise the value in publicity and momentum in re-locating Arnie from one capitol, Sacramento, to another, Washington, to put his weight behind climate change legislation and alternative energy efforts.
The lesson of Schwarzenegger’s time as governor is that while political history does not move at the warp speed of the digital age, it can evolve swiftly and unpredictably.
As when Schwarzenegger arrived in Sacramento, the California Chamber of Commerce will throw a massive going-away party, but that too, will be symbolic. As he leaves office, Schwarzenegger has one other thing in common with his predecessor, both heading out the door with approval ratings in the mid-20s. But in the 15 months after his arrival, it did appear that Schwarzenegger would make the same transition from showbiz to politics that immortalised Ronald Reagan.
He would like to take his act to Washington, Schwarzenegger said in an interview with the editorial board of the Los Angeles Times, as an adviser on energy and the environment.
Key to the message, he said, was changing the words, to agree on energy policies that reduced the country’s dependence on foreign oil, rather than arguing about climate change.
”People are very receptive when I talk about these things,” he noted, ”because I’m a Hummer driver, not a treehugger.” http://www.smh.com.au/world/will-washington-be-the-next-stop-for-arnie-20101231-19bzb.html
Hu vows a peaceful China in 2011
Ahram Online – 21 minutes ago
“The world economic recovery is still difficult and full of ups and downs. Climate change, energy and resource security, food security, public sanitation security are all prominent problems facing the world,” Hu said. “Strengthening global cooperation and joining hands to address the serious challenges facing humanity is in the common interests of the people of every nation.”
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/9/2951/World/International/Hu-vows-a-peaceful-China-in-.aspx
Australia floodwaters cover area bigger than Texas
200,000 stranded by rising rivers face food shortages, power outages http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40862006/ns/world_news-asiapacific/
How far back do China’s climate records go? Just curious.
Just curious, eh Mike? Long enough is the answer – this is a significant statement from a thoroughly reputable science-based Chinese government body. Clearly 2010 was problematic for extreme weather events across China and Chen Zenlin’s attribution that “…global warming was largely to blame” is unequivocal. This specific 10-year analysis is of course part of a larger picture that confirms anthropogenic CO2 as the main driver of climate change with extreme weather outcomes that the Chinese have and are experiencing.
If you’re in need of further endorsement, simply go back a few posts on this website and read what MunichRe have said. Re-insurance companies like MunichRe and SwissRe are in the forefront of climate change risk and cost benefit analysis and have been making statements about the need for action to control and reduce greenhouse gas emissions at least as strong as those of environmental NGOs for years now. After all, they eventually foot the bill for climate change-induced damage.
A few minutes spent on both MunichRe and SwissRe websites is a useful investment for, oh, let me think…Republican politicians? Climate change deniers? Or even the merely curious like Mike!
Jeff Gazzard
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/toronto/story/2010/12/31/ontario-electricity-rebates539.html
New year brings Ont. electricity rebates
Bills expected to jump 46% over 5 years
Last Updated: Friday, December 31, 2010 | 7:19 AM ET Comments34Recommend6
The Canadian Press
I don’t think anyone expected the flooding/precipitation would be on this scale, so soon. I think almost every corner of the world has been soaked.
What was that figure about %4 increase??? This has got to be more than %4.
This effect must be non-linear. A tipping point. At the temps we have flirted with 1998,2005′ 2010 we have seen a cascade of extreme weather.
Its like the system is trying to break through this ceiling and the extreme precipitation is almost …could it be… A form of negative feed back.
It seems like 2011/2012 are going to be around as hot 2010. Hansen predicts it likely 2012 may be hotter. If that is the case we are definitely on the run now from the climate wolves. Gaia’s revenge, only it’s a mass extinction event unfortunately.
Negative feedback….
“These floods are going to affect the state, the whole nation. It’s going to have a huge impact on mining commodities – several coal mines are under water and some won’t be operational for months.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12097280
A good article in Canada’s Globe and Mail by Thomas Homer-Dixon holds the CIGI Chair of Global Systems at the Balsillie School of International Affairs in Waterloo. In the article he connects the dots between the loss of sea ice in Canada’s arctic and the bizarre weather occurring around the world.
Quoting from the article:
“People who think this winter’s brutish weather proves climate change isn’t real might want to think again.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/and-now-the-weather-nasty-and-brutish/article1853702/
Read the comments to get a glimpse of the denial machine in Canada.
One needs a crystal ball to determine what to invest their 401K in these days.
Climate will have profound impacts on the economy.
In Feb 2009 while Victoria was burning up, the Queensland floods covered an area the size of Victoria (or the UK); this year the floods cover an area larger than New South Wales – or as Prokaryotes points out, larger than the whole of Texas. Okay, it’s the start of the wet season and La Nina is in full force – but even so it’s nothing if not extreme – in parts, rainfalls have been six times the December average, with more than one metre of rain falling in some places.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/features/queensland-rainfall-six-times-the-december-average-in-2010/story-e6freorf-1225979643002
Prof David Karoly attributes the extreme rain up north to human emissions of greenhouse gases, and says southern Australia will continue to get drier and hotter:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/12/31/3104537.htm
Karoly doesn’t know why we aren’t doing more and acting faster to slow emissions, perhaps because of delays by vested interests. (After all, he and others have been warning us about this for years.) He says we need signals that dumping waste into the atmosphere is not acceptable (we need the US EPA down here!)
The Queensland floods will slow the extraction of coal which is a bit hard to mine when it’s flooded and impossible to transport when the roads and rail are closed!
Good article in Canada’s Globe and mail that connects the dots between arctic ice melt and strange weather. For a small glimpse of Canada’s denier cult, read the comments section of this article.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/and-now-the-weather-nasty-and-brutish/article1853702/
In response to #1, how fast will civilization collapse?
I can’t put a time estimate out there, but I would suggest that collapse is not recognizable on the time scale of a human life. In the span of a single life we do not have the opportunity to experience many alternatives to our present reality. What we perceive is either seen as collapse or success depending on what we have been taught to expect. To some people, (mostly rich people) what we have is magnificent and wonderful. To those with greater expectations, we are now in a state of collapse and failure. I’m in the latter group. My vivid imagination and understanding of what might have been prevents me from seeing the current state of affairs as anything but a complete disaster. My expectations are somewhat higher than most.
Two things are certain. (1) Dysgenic trends guarantee the eventual failure of civilization unless they are reversed through deliberate policy change. (2) We could have done far better than we have.
Who can say civilization is not already in a state of collapse? Perhaps it’s just a matter of perspective. Perhaps future generations will see our time as one of incredible ignorance, poverty and injustice. They could find it presumptuous and preposterous that we consider ourselves to be civilized at all.
#11 a bit like the definition of recession…always delayed.
I believe we’re missing an opportunity here — specifically, using efficiency as a strategy for CAA compliance. Fro example, plants that want to expand by 75,000 tons could be required to offset through end-use efficiency 100,000 tons, and plants that are subject to the 100,000 limit could get relief from some or all regulatory requirements if they got end-use reductions that brought them down to 75K or less.
Since efficiency costs less than controls, and is cleaner, it would be cheaper and smarter to do this.
It’s never counted, but there are energy and environmental costs of capture — it takes energy and that energy releases SOx NOx, particulates, heavy metals etc.
So it just makes sense to use end use efficiencies wherever possible as a strategy of first choice.
3 dead after tornado hits NW Ark on New Year’s Eve
LITTLE ROCK, Ark. – A tornado fueled by an unusually warm winter air sliced through parts of northwestern Arkansas early on New Year’s Eve, killing at least three people, injuring several others and knocking out power to thousands of homes and businesses.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101231/ap_on_re_us/us_severe_weather_ark
@Jeff Gazzard #6.
What are you talking about?? What on earth makes you think I am a denier? Get over your paranoia.
Formal temperature records started in different parts of the world at different times. In the U.S. they go back about 130 years. China probably didn’t have standardize measurements until somewhat later. On the other-hand China is a old civilization so they may have other types of records going back centuries. See:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VH3-4G54HY3-1&_user=10&_coverDate=07%2F31%2F2005&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_origin=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1593204242&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=3e5bde637025e84f84f5beab747df945&searchtype=a
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6WJN-49PY9RB-1&_user=10&_coverDate=07%2F31%2F2003&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_origin=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1593204063&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=98a4760de765fd95635b93496118f2e2&searchtype=a
(Sorry for the long URLs.)
Maybe someone out there knows of a good review article on this topic.
PS: I just found this, but I can’t get access at home. I may be able to later at the office.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VBC-4876DWJ-5K&_user=10&_origUdi=B6WJN-49PY9RB-1&_fmt=high&_coverDate=12%2F31%2F1991&_rdoc=1&_orig=article&_origin=article&_zone=related_art&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=36ebe21f5489fd6f2d5facf89dde55dd
How far do China’s weather records go back? China? Is there an older civilization?
Paulm: What was that figure about %4 increase??? This has got to be more than %4.
Water goes up and then quickly comes back down. And then goes up again….
Tornado kills three in Arkansas
Unusually warm winter air creates tornado in US killing three people and knocking out power to thousands of homes
Washington county said the storm hit the centre of the community.
Flights to and from Northwest Arkansas regional airport in Benton county were delayed or cancelled this morning as officials cleared storm debris.
Gulf moisture riding southerly winds pushed temperatures into the upper 60s and 70s (around 20 Celsius) on Thursday – ahead of a cold front expected to drop temperatures into the teens by tomorrow morning.
“Anytime you have a significant change in air mass there will be unsettled weather marking the two different air masses,” said Joe Sellers at the National Weather Service office in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/31/tornado-arkansas
Climate PR effort heats up
“No matter what they do, whether it means being more articulate or anything else, they’re fighting a losing battle because the science is cooked,” Inhofe told POLITICO. “The trouble is they’re not trying to educate the public. They’re trying to influence the public.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1210/46770.html
Prokaryotes#1, until recently I thought about 50 years, mostly because I felt that action would be too little, too late. Now, however, given the dramatic surprise that shouldn’t have been of the abrupt arrival of the Age of Inundation, with its pretty immediate effects on food production, and given the descent of the Right into even more florid imbecility and aggressiveness, I think it could be very abrupt and soon. There are some events, such as the floods and the winter heatwave in Greenland, that if not transient, are incredibly ominous. Then there is the surprise that perhaps shouldn’t have been of the cold winters apparently associated with the loss of Arctic sea ice. And the state of marine and permafrost frozen methane is, of course, absolutely crucial. All in all the clear synergy, seemingly always negative to our prospects, of greenhouse gas emissions, disruption of oceanic circulation, spread of anoxic dead zones,ocean acidification, loss of phytoplankton and zooplankton etc, between these multiple calamities, and the growing fanaticism and irrationality of the Right, have made me deeply pessimistic.
NASA Takes a Look at the Jet Stream to Get 50 Times More Wind Power
NASA aerospace engineer Mark Moore is using a $100,000 federal grant to research what it will take to create a jet stream-based wind industry 30,000 feet above the ground.
The reason the US government is interested in developing the jet stream is that up there, winds blow consistently at 150 miles per hour, so futuristic satellite-based wind turbines or kite-type turbines such as those from Kitegen and Magenn flying at that altitude have the potential to generate 50 times the gigawatts that ground-based turbines can. So far, the early Magenn prototype flies at 1,000 feet.
“At 2,000 feet, there is two to three times the wind velocity compared to ground level,” Moore said. “The power goes up with the cube of that wind velocity, so it’s eight to 27 times the power production just by getting 2,000 feet up, and the wind velocity is more consistent.”
http://cleantechnica.com/2010/12/31/nasa-takes-a-look-at-the-jet-stream-to-get-50-times-more-wind-power/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+IM-cleantechnica+%28CleanTechnica%29
Extreme rain -
I’m afraid I started my list of extreme rain events a little late this year, Nov. 21st. I now have somewhere around 250 reports there.
I will start one for 2011 today , any tips as the year moves a long will be appreciated . While looking at all this , I discovered there is no formal definition of just what an ” extreme rain event ” is. It’s kinda like porn, you know it when you see it. ( An area the size of Texas flooded, for example )
As you come across reports this year here’s what I’m looking for :
A. How much rain fell ?
B. How long did it take ?
It’s one thing to get 12 inches in 90 days, it’s a whole new world when it comes in 6 hrs. I guess that’s why a formal definition eludes us. At any rate, it’s one thing to read “Heavy Rain fell in Vietnam”, it’s a whole other world when you learn it was 6 feet in 30 days.
The Extreme Rain Events of 2010
http://coloradobob1.newsvine.com/_news/2010/11/21/5504169-the-extreme-rain-events-of-2010?pc=25&sp=75#discussion_nav
IT’S ON EAARTH DECLARED WAR ON MAN
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) — One person has died in a storm that swept through southern and central Missouri, damaging homes, buildings, boats and power lines.
Emergency Management Coordinator Brad Nash says one person died Friday in Dent County, but he didn’t have any other details. The National Weather Service reports that a possible tornado destroyed three mobile homes and caused extensive damage to numerous structures in the county.
The system all caused damage at Fort Leonard Wood and threw boats and boat docks around Table Rock Lake.
A storm system also hit Phelps County, causing some injuries. http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iq-DhSCN3W5w1zt_JtnA0NY7v0-A?docId=b267314a8eda4fcbabf03707ab7bb83e
(Reuters) – The Dakotas were facing a major blizzard on Friday, with high winds and bitterly cold temperatures, while thunderstorms and a deadly tornado hit Arkansas. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6BU1UG20101231
Transocean tries to stop another Horizon probe
(Reuters) – Transocean Ltd, the world’s biggest offshore rig contractor, aims to stop a seventh U.S. body from investigating the accident that sank one of its rigs while causing the largest U.S. offshore oil spill.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6BU2CM20101231
Caymans Move Cut Transocean’s Tax by $2 Billion, Magazine Says http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-15/caymans-move-cut-transocean-s-tax-by-2-billion-magazine-says.html
Senator Questions Transocean’s Tax Practices http://www.accountingtoday.com/news/Senator-Questions-Transocean-Tax-Practices-54793-1.html
The Greenland Postcard from Narsarsuaq today :
46 °F
Mostly Cloudy
51 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 66 mph
Nothing eats ice and snow like these conditions . Today makes the 18th new daily high record broken at Narsarsuaq since Nov. 19th.
Re China: I found this:
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
Int. J. Climatol. (2007)
Coherence of climatic reconstruction from historical
documents in China by different studies
ABSTRACT: Much effort has been spent in the last few decades to reconstruct the climate over China using a variety of historical documents. However, differences in the results of reconstructions exist even when people are using similar documents. In order to address this issue, 14 published temperature series by different studies were analyzed for coherence and mutual consistency. The analyses on their temporal fluctuations indicate that for the individual time series (standardized) on the 10-years time scales, 57 of the 91 correlation coefficients reach the significance level of 99%. The spatial patterns among the different time series also show high coherency. In addition, consistency also exhibit when comparing the reconstructions with other available natural climate change indicators. Above information was subsequently used to synthesize the temperature series for the last 500 and 1000 years. Copyright: 2007 Royal Meteorological Society
http://www.igsnrr.ac.cn/xwzx/kydt/200710/W020090624623677160858.pdf
New Zealand
Flooded old homes doomed
The cleanup of Tuesday’s storm damage to homes, farms, roads and bridges is continuing and affected residents are making insurance claims.
Ms Bouillir said some of the houses would be condemned because they were beyond salvaging.
“The fine silt that gets into everything is very damaging. Some of the houses are old and to try to repair them may cost far more than knocking them down.”
The worst affected homes were in the Aorere Valley, Ferntown area.
Today Civil Defence staff were holding a debrief in Golden Bay, West Coast-Tasman MP Damien O’Connor was visiting the flood-affected areas and Tasman District Council held another meeting that included Rural Support Trust officer Ian Blair. http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/4505518/Flooded-old-homes-doomed
@ #1:
Civilization collapsed in the 1960s with the wide spread use of TVs. Just kidding. Civilization has pretty well collapsed in Somalia: they are close to celebrating 20 years of Tea Party rule (their version of the TP that is).
Climate change, if unchecked, may indeed cause some states to fail. But civilization as a whole is pretty resilient. We made it through the 20th century despite two world wars, a financial collapse and the Cold War. Many millions of people did not make it however. So, while I think civilization will go on, catastrophes should be avoided whenever possible.
#18 Pete, Yes it sure does…. bet that %4 figure is an underestimate though.
New twister alerts after 6 killed in Ark., Mo.
Tornadoes hit several areas, while six states watch for more http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40862463/ns/weather/
2011 will top 2010, so will 2012 top 2011, so will 2013 top 2012 … i hope people start to act pretty fucking soon!
#1: re: civilization collapse. The is a valid question for a number of reasons.
1) A study of the earth’s history and past civilizations seems to confirm that on our present trajectory our civilization will likely fare no better than previous tries. Collapse could happen in 2-3 years if the climate tips rapidly into a new state of equilibrium hostile to food production (i.e. hot and dry or something else). Paleoclimate confirms sudden changes have occurred in the past…in the space of a few years or less than a decade. Are we skating on thin ice? James Hansen thinks so.
2) The dangers of an ice free arctic are just now emerging. An arctic ocean free of ice in the summer carries the risk of profound impacts on the planet’s weather. Even the southern hemisphere would not be immune. The biggest immediate concern is climate-change-enhanced-drought occurring in the world’s primary food growing areas.
3) Back to back crop failures (2 years in a row or more)in the American mid-west and Canadian prairies with a failure in Australia or Russia tossed in would cause widespread starvation among the poor and those who previously considered themselves comfortable (most of us).
Sapiens would then be in the same predicament as any organism that has overstayed it’s welcome by depleting the resources needed to sustain itself. The fossil record is full of millions of examples of this. Mankind is not immune to the laws of nature. Mad Max lies just beyond should this “new paradigm” weather pattern persist for an indefinite period.
4) Research is showing that the yields of mainstay crops such as corn and soybeans decline significantly as the number of days above 100 Deg F increases.
One consolation is that nothing gets people’s attention faster than an empty belly (and $5.00 a gallon gasoline) so perhaps by that time we will take the risk seriously. Unfortunately it would be too late (in the case of a climate flip that seriously impacts food production).
A great book on the subject is called “Collapse” by Jared Diamond.
See this article in Canada’s Globe and Mail that does a good job of connecting the dots between an ice free arctic and bizarre weather.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/and-now-the-weather-nasty-and-brutish/article1853702/
It’s as if we are watching the 6th extinction in slow motion, noticing details that will escape some paleontologist in the distant future.
Explosion seen in slow motion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9r_2l5_FviU
Train wreck seen in slow motion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUF19acPBZA
nuclear detonation seen in slow motion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcb6srZrUb0
Narsarsuaq today
Max Temperature ——- 55 °F .. (Avg.) – 28 °F ..(R) .. 46 °F (1996)
Min Temperature ——- 46 °F .. (Avg. – 12 °F .. (R) .. 3 °F (2007)
This is also related
Collapse (2009)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1503769/
#35, Steve – Yes i agree, great summary! And recently more news outlets started to connect the dots with the weather, at least in some articles.
We can just hope that this trend will grow to a storm and that momentum will be gained to throw the despot kinds over. Denial and wrong information about climate change IS A THREAT TO THE SURVIVAL OF THE SPECIES!
If we do not start tackling climate change with affords, similar to a lunar mission or “what ever it takes”, Sapiens will cease to exist in a not to far future.
I think this will happen long before the methane gun hits, then anarchy rules and maybe there are a few survivors, but they too will fail, because of the magnitude (time/impact) we dealing with. Let alone the lose on life style and all the commodities humans learned to take for granted.
Happy New Year!
Prokaryotes @ 34 -
Those storm’s dry slot resulted in a reading of 69F in Dallas at 4 AM.
The avg. min, temp there is 34F
The last day of 2010
Dallas was 35F degrees above average min temp., Narsarsuaq was 34F above average min temp.
Well China was one of the most ancient nations on Earth, but in the last century it suffered from severe political-social turmoil until the 1980s.
In the 1910s, the Chinese Empire collapsed by Revolution, and a series of civil wars followed until Mao Zedong’s victory in 1949.
A good video about the Chinese Revolutions and Civil Wars:
China in revolution 1911-1949 (part1/10)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRkKKRdiTBc&feature=rec-LGOUT-exp_fresh+div-1r-8-HM
Mao abolished the feudal system by land reform and began the transition to Modernity. Sadly, a few years after the relatively succesfull first reforms he followed the steps of the Soviet Union dictator Joseph Stalin.
In 1948 he lanched a faraonic Five Year Plan called the “Great Leap Forward” to convert the agrarian nation to an industrial superpotence. The farms were joined in big “People’s Communes” to increase the productivity. The great tragedy was that to industrialize the country the agriculture was left behind , and even the agrarian tools were melted in primitive steel furnaces producing fragile, useless iron.
But the Communes reported enormous production quotas of grain to please the Communist Party officials, so almost all the food produced was sold, and almost nothing were left to feed the peasants. The result was widespread famine, the worst in China’s history (the Great Chinese Famine, that killed more than 40 million)
Here’s a good review:
“Chinese economic planning under Mao part 1of2″
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yd2oUdH5SqA
“Chinese economic planning under Mao part 2of2″
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xip3Ck4uRzo&feature=related
The famine was attributed, instead to a bad planning, to a series of naturals disasters. The period is known in China as “3 Years of Natural Disasters”. That is in part true, but similar disasters in China’s past do no caused such devastation.
Mao, after the disaster left power, and more moderate leaders took over in China. But some years later Mao attempted to retake power in the “Cultural Revolution”, lauched from schools (young students didn’t remembered the famine and considered Mao as a hero) and the Army (that always supported Mao) against the moderate leaders. The political turmoil that resulted lasted from the late 1960s until Mao death in late 1970s.
With all this turbulent history, I do not think that china has a long record of recent climate, as have the US and the UK.Probably modern records began in the 1980s. Because of this, statements about today extreme weather in China must be taken with caution, unless records during the Revolution are shown.
As a final note, now the heavy industrial development of China, apparently successful, is causing heavy pollution, the “Atmospheric Brown Cloud”(ABC).
Link:
http://www-abc-asia.ucsd.edu/
(I am franly disappointed with the copyright restrictive policies there. If we are to battle the denialist crowd, it is imperative that the data, papers and results to be open access. Restriction to information is the worst thing if we want to inform the public)
This regional climate change to me is like the phantom of the Great Leap Forward to Modern China (and India by the way), as it can lead to the collapse of the regional agriculture under drought and solar dimming.
We aren’t doing the best job of educating the public about scales of size and of time.
For Earth, our planet, two or three years must be but an instant. Blink. All gone! Try something else. Wait a few megacycles. See the new stuff! Life goes on. (but it ain’t us.)
Steve, #35, not only catastrophic climate change could cause collapse in the near future; it could also occur because of Peak oil. Look up “Peak Energy, Climate Change, and the Collapse of Global Civilization (Tariel Morrigan)” on the Internet. Scarey!!
#1, Prokaryotes, I used to think collapse would occur say, between 2020-2030. However, after reading parts of Tariel Morrigan’s books, I’d say within the next 10 years.
Unfortunately, his work says, “the conclusions of this analysis are supported by publications and statements made by several national governments, the George W. Bush and Obama administrations, the Dep’t of Energy….”
He doesn’t say exactly when it will occur but he gives a very good indication that it will happen very soon.
Prokaryote, for example, he says that, “…between 2010-2015, substantial shortfalls in the global oil supply will likely occur… Oil shortages will lead to a collapse of the global economy, and the decline of globalized industrial civilization…” This is from his book, “Peak Oil, Climate Change, and the Collapse of Global Civilization”.
Uh Oh – Is The Apocalypse Coming? Ashton Kutcher Believes That We Could Soon See The End Of The World As We Know It
Belief that an apocalypse is coming is going mainstream. Now even Ashton Kutcher is proclaiming that we could soon witness the end of the world as we know it. Yes, you read that correctly. Ashton Kutcher is apparently very serious about this and he is busy making preparations for the total breakdown of society.
http://current.com/news/92895289_uh-oh-is-the-apocalypse-coming-ashton-kutcher-believes-that-we-could-soon-see-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it.htm
Prokaryotes, my comment above doesn’t make much sense because the other two comments have been in “moderation” for quite some time. If Joe prints them, then this last comment will become clear. chow!
Who is Ashton Kutcher?
Just watch the price of gold this year… thats the panic indicator…..
Basically the fallout from extreme weather this year is the ‘beginning’ of the decline, for the developed world.
#36 catman, car wreck…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9ptesx8lJw&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Prokartotes says:
2011 will top 2010, so will 2012 top 2011, so will 2013 top 2012 … i hope people start to act pretty fucking soon!
The problem, Prokaryotes, is the media. Whoever owns the media, owns the “world” so to speak or at least that country because peoples’ attitudes and opinions are based (usually) on crap they hear on the evening news or BS they read in the back of financial magazines. And the fossil fuel industry owns the media…. from General Electric (and their coal-fired power plants) to some prince from Saudia Arabia (who wants us to continue using their oil)… corporations whose sole goal is profit. They could care less about imparting knowledge. The whole thing is pretty discouraging sometimes. It’s like from the book 1984. We seemed to be so screwed.
Well, as long as there’s guessing going on about the future, here’s my 2 cents.
Some coastal city this year with at least 2 million inhabitants will suffer at least 3 feet of rain in around 10 days. This city will never recover. Like New Orleans it will start a death spiral.
I came to a few very scary conclusions this year.
There aren’t any physical reasons why this stuff can’t get amped-up to some very serious speed, and go on for years and years and years. There is no reason why Nashville won’t see this 3 foot rainfall in May of this year. And every year for 20 years. Sounds crazy , until you remember an area the size of Texas is under water in Australia.
Extreme Weather Impacting Australia
Military aircraft are dropping supplies to towns cut off by floods in northeastern Australia in an area larger than France and Germany combined. http://www.newslook.com/videos/279477-extreme-weather-impacting-australia?autoplay=true
Colorado Bob (#53, 54), You’re absolutely right. However, if my intuition is correct the areas hit will be Georgia and North Carolina.
Colorado Bob
until you remember an area the size of Texas is under water in Australia.
Is that area really under water? Or is it the area ‘affected’ by the floods? I thought it was the latter.
One needs to be careful about saying extreme events prove climate change. Contrary to what some think, extreme weather have always occurred throughout history. Since humans live in more places and we also have better technology to spot extreme events, the numbers should increase somewhat. For example, this year was a very bad year for hurricanes, yet none made landfall on the US, so without modern day equipment this would have gone down as a year with relatively few hurricanes rather than many. One of the problems this year is the jet stream has been in a zig zag pattern rather than a straight line which is why you are seeing unusual warmth in some areas (Greenland, Northeastern Canada, Extreme east of Siberia) and unusual cold in other areas (Europe, Eastern US). Certainly it is possible that climate change is contributing to this, but it also could be cyclical since in 2007 when sea ice was equally low, the Eastern US and Europe had a very mild winter unlike the past and the current one. That doesn’t mean global warming isn’t occurring. The earth has warmed 0.7C since 1900 and 0.16C in the past decade so I think we can agree temperatures are rising. The problem is it is difficult to fully know all the impacts and also with each disaster, there is always the looming question on whether this is due to climate change or whether it would have occurred naturally. Lets remember things such as the dust bowl in the 30s, the severe heat wave of 1936, the 50s being the worst decade for hurricanes all occurred before climate change was a serious issue. Other things such as tornados were only recorded when someone sighted them 100 years ago, whereas with modern technology, every tornado is picked up even those that no one sees thus the question is whether the rise is due to better technology or have they risen overall.
THIS IS HOW I EXPLAIN (TO FRIENDS) “WHY ALL THE SNOW?” IN REGARDS TO GLOBAL WARMING:
If anyone has ever visited a greenhouse they may have noticed there is a lot of humidity along with the heat? Global Warming is Enhanced greenhouse effect. Water, like CO2, is a greenhouse gas. Therefore, we’re bound to get more precipitation (in the form of rain or snow) as Global warming progresses.
Correct me if I’m wrong.
espiritwater @ 56 -
Point well taken.
If your house is dry, but the power plant is flooded, lines are down, and flood waters have contaminated your water supplies, if food can not be moved due to inundated roadways, then ……
Colorado Bob, @ 60: …”then…” Then emergency vehicles can not reach outlying problems. Doctors have trouble reaching patients. Food starts spoiling. Pets and livestock suffer. Toilets plug. It is the same for hundreds of miles in any direction. That is the first week. Next week you get to sit on your roof and hope a helicopter comes by.
I can see why the fossil industry does not want to go to Court. Much cheeper to fund a “Tea Party” “Revolt.”
With all their millions of dollars spent the “Tea Party” is the best they could come up with! “Pollution-for-Profits”… Now there is a rally cry to be proud of!
They get to ware it like an Albatross.
I remember last spring Joe posted a photo of a dead Albatross chick that had been fed plastic trash by a well meaning parent. Can someone please photo shop that tragic sign of our times around the necks of the Koch brothers and so many other worthy Folks?