NSIDC: Lowest December Arctic sea ice extent in satellite record

The cold may make the news, but it ain’t the story.

NSIDC 12-10

Arctic sea ice extent for December 2010 was the lowest in the satellite record for that month.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center has released its December report on Arctic sea ice.  The human-driven decline continues, spurred by a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, which leads to this regional air temperature anomaly:

NAO 12-10

Parts of Canada are astoundingly warm.  Nunatsiaq Online reports:

… temperatures around South Baffin reached record highs as much as 20 degrees above normal.Iqaluit set new records with temperatures rising to +1.2 C Jan. 3 breaking the record of “”1.7 C set in 1970, said Yvonne Bilan-Wallace, a meteorologist with Environment Canada.

Jan. 4 saw another new record for the capital with a high of +1.5 C, breaking the old mark of “”1.1 C set in 1969.

“The normal around this time of year is around -22C,” she said. “So yeah, you’re way above normal.”

Pangnirtung also set a record high temperature, peaking at +8 C Jan. 4, shattering an old record of “”3.7 C set in 2002. Kimmirut hit +1C Jan.4, breaking a previous record high of “”5.5C.

Bilan-Wallace said Environment Canada is still issuing marine forecasts for the Hudson Strait because temperatures in the area have been so warm.

Normally, such forecasts would end in November or December.

The disinformers like to focus on where it’s cold, which happens to be where most of the people of, but where it’s hot looks to be more consequential, given the impacts of melting ice in both the Arctic and Greenland.

The cold may make the news, but it ain’t the story.

Related Post:

58 Responses to NSIDC: Lowest December Arctic sea ice extent in satellite record

  1. Esop says:

    Record low ice extent at the same time as we see strange outbursts of Arctic Air into Europe and eastern US. Weird coincidence indeed.

    I predicted a while back (based on statistics from 1988) that Northern European temperatures would become much warmer right after New Years. This is exactly what happened. Interesting to see that temperatures in denier central England is now way above normal. 8 day forecast for London is up to 10C, that is well above the normal of 6C.
    Deniers like sunspot guru Piers Corbyn predicted the entire English winter to be extremely cold, without any periods of mild weather, due to th elow solar activity. The British MSM and even the mayor of London lapped up every word and publicly disrespected the MET office. I wonder if they are going to start quizzing Corbyn and the rest of the Imminent Ice Age gang about the failure of their January forecast, just like they pestered the MET office about the failure of their December forecast. Moral of the story is that long term forecasting in the winter has become extremely tricky, due to the messed up Arctic circulation patterns.

  2. Fed says:

    2010 should be deleted from the Figure Title – these are all the December readings aren’t they.

  3. Colder in Britain than in Greenland! Just wow…

  4. dhogaza says:

    So the previous December low was in 2006 … we all know what happened in the summer of 2007 …

  5. Leland Palmer says:

    You mean we can’t melt an icecap without causing a few side effects?

    Who knew? :(

  6. From Peru says:

    Are still deniers in Canada?

    They should be melting like the snow and the sea ice!

    Meanwhile, the folks at WattsUpWithThat are again insisting on the still very quiet Sun, suggesting we are entering a new Dalton Minimum…

    I think they are caving their own grave, as they are predicting cold times ahead caused by low solar activity…

    What will they do when their “prediction” result deadly wrong in coming years?

    Will their public reputation melt like the Canadian snow?

  7. Matt says:

    …(ice) decline continues, spurred by a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation.

    Not sure this is the direction of causation. What is a negative AO besides warm arctic / cold midlatudes and the corresponding jet associated with this baroclniicty pattern. Might surface fluxes be part of what is causing an unprecedented negative AO this winter and last.

  8. From Peru says:

    The Arctic temperature anomaly (specially in Canada) is hot, hot, hot:

    It also seems that cold in the USA and Europe is lessening…

  9. Esop says:

    #6 (FPU): The interesting thing is that Watts and certain deniers on other sites, like Blackboard, blamed the heatwaves this past summer on the growing solar activity. In fact, back then, they claimed that record smashing heat was to be expected due to the new solar cycle.
    Funny how things change.
    We should be thankful that they are predicting rapid and imminent cooling, as this will make it easy to prove them wrong, as opposed to if they just claimed the old, tired “it is natural” no matter how fast the warming. Thing to keep in mind, though, is that they have been claiming cooling for the last 3 years. Has the general public been able to read about these highly embarrasing failures in the mainstream media? Unfortunately no.

  10. Mulga Mumblebrain says:

    From Peru#6, the denialists being wrong will make no difference watts-soever. When has being wrong, being ignorant, being imbecilic ever deterred the denialists or any other Rightists? They will simply change the ground-rules, falsify the historical record to hide their cretinism and dishonesty, lie about the facts etc, in other words act as they always do, without honesty, honour or logic, and rely on their now near total dominance of the Rightwing MSM to push their suicidal position.

  11. Those warm Baffin temperatures must be due to the urban heat island effect. :)

  12. Heraclitus says:

    From Peru – what will they do when their predictions are proved wrong? Well, they’ll ignore it, of course. Water off a duck’s back.

  13. Colorado Bob says:

    Looking at this graphic of the pole –

    And this study of the same area –

    “Now the southern current has taken over, it’s really a drastic change,” Schubert told AFP, pointing to the evidence of the shift towards warmer water in the northwest Atlantic.

  14. Michael says:

    Meanwhile, NSIDC reports that Antarctic sea ice has returned to more normal levels (and gives the reason for the high extent in prior months).

    They also note that a negative Arctic Oscillation used to increase ice survival, but that doesn’t appear to be the case anymore because the pattern itself is changing (aka Arctic Dipole).

  15. MapleLeaf says:

    “The disinformers like to focus on where it’s cold, which happens to be where most of the people of, but….”

    Should that not read “….most of the people live“?

    Thanks for covering this Joe.

  16. Colorado Bob says:

    Having reported on the aftermath of other major flooding events (Grand Forks in 1997, New Orleans in 2005, Haiti in 2008), the enduring impact of Pakistan’s floods is indeed beyond compare. Even today, four months on, hundreds of thousands of people in the southern Sindh province are still in tent camps. Their farmland–much of it sharecropped–is still inundated, in some regions under ten feet of water.

    “The ability of the land to absorb the water is not there anymore, said Kamal Majidulla, special adviser to Pakistan’s prime minister on water and agriculture. “It’s not a sponge anymore, the sponge is loaded.”

  17. Colorado Bob says:

    “Top soil will run straight off into the water and that will come straight out into the Great Barrier Reef,” said the researcher, who chased the flood plumes by boat to take samples and track the extent of the damage.

    “There’s a lot of water around and already it would be influencing the reef,” she said, describing the mixture of fresh, warm water, nutrient-heavy soil and pesticide run-offs as a harmful “cocktail” for the corals.

  18. From Peru says:

    The pattern of strongly negative Arctic Oscillation /North Atlanctic Oscillation in not only causing the “Hot Arctic-Cold Continents pattern” in surface air temperatures, it is affecting Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) as well:


    1) the high SST anomalies around Greenland: extremely bad for the ice sheet, as it melts the glacier terminations where most melting occurs.

    2)the high SST anomalies in the Tropical Atlantic: if they persist, as did last year, lead to an extremely active hurricane season and exceptional drought in the Amazon.

  19. George Ennis says:

    @From Peru says

    Yes there is a very vocal group in Canada that denies the reality of climate change and a lot of them are in our federal government. This is not surprising since much of their core support rests in Alberta home of the tar sands. As in the US the denial of climate change is as much a cultural mind set which no amount of evidence to the contrary will alter.

    On a more upbeat note the province of Ontario continues to move forward attracting investments in green technology and creating jobs related to that investment.

  20. catman306 says:

    Are the melt ponds on the ice sheet of Greenland still flowing at this time? Will this flow carry the heat from the surface deep into the ice?

  21. Paulm says:

    15 Colorado bob, now we see why there were all those pictures of dinosaur in swamps!

    Swampy areas and desert, what we have to look forward to…..

  22. Prokaryotes says:

    “8 day forecast for London is up to 10C, that is well above the normal of 6C.”

    Similar for germany, with up to 7C, according to the forecast

  23. George Ennis says:

    Well it seems Joe Bastardi has been called a “Dodo”, well at least indirectly in this piece from Scientific American.

  24. George Ennis says:

    I forgot to place a disclaimer with my last post. I am not responsible if your head bursts reading any of the comments as in [the comment on the Scientific American article] “What happens when people start killing in the name of “Global Warming”?”

    [JR: That’s why I moderate CP. I don’t allow such comments here.]

  25. Leif says:

    What happens as these two air temperature green amebas meet above the Pole. The arctic “Cold” will be split and forced onto the Continents. There to be squeezed and shoved by the moist warming marine air and mid latitude pressure systems. Injected with the occasional Pineapple Express, aka Atmospheric River. All with 4% more moisture and significant potential energy at the interfaces.

    Displaced Arctic Polar Air Mass Gets Injected with Overly Moist Mid Latitude Warm Fronts, Snow Happens!”


    Open Arctic waters draw the marine air north on either side of the world, splitting and displacing the cold “stabilizing”, (?), yoke of Earth.

    Welcome to Eaarth.

    That’s my story and I am stickin’ to it.

  26. P. G. Dudda says:

    @20 – catman306: Well, I don’t think there are very many moulins in Greenland, even in the south, but this image seems to suggest that the southern margin of the ice sheet is very slushy indeed. It also seems that Jakobshavn glacier front near Ilulissat has not had much of a winter advance, and the ice stream continues to thin. Ilulissat itself was much warmer than average all through December.

    Has anybody else got more concrete info/thoughts on how stable (or not) the Greenland ice sheet is, particularly given the extreme temperature anomalies observed this winter?

    (Both images above are from DMI Centre for Ocean and Ice’s web page.)

  27. Richard Brenne says:

    Maybe Greenland should be re-named “North Canary Island.”

    By the way, George W. Bush took the bird flu so seriously he bombed the Canary Islands. . .

  28. Prokaryotes says:

    Bye, Bye Just World Believers.

  29. @16.C Bob. An aussie coral expert told me today that the GBR is going to be hammered by the flooding.

  30. Mulga Mumblebrain says:

    Colorado Bob#16, one is pretty used to hearing bizarre stories these days (I’ve always loved weird stuff, my favourite reading for years whilst in the ‘necessary office’ was the Encyclopaedia of Unusual Natural Phenomena) but this revelation that the Pakistani floodwater won’t go away is one of the strangest yet. I think that Gaia is frantically trying to get our attention.

  31. Piers Corbyn says:

    ESOP says

    “Piers Corbyn predicted the entire English winter to be extremely cold, without any periods of mild weather, due to the low solar activity”
    NOT SO.

    1. We predicted very cold and have so far been totally confirmed but we also forecast certain mild periods (especially in South & SW)like around now. Read our forecasts instead of writing lies.
    See comments

    2. No its not just low solar activity, that can be high and it still cold under certain circumstances. It is solar-magnetic lunar matter

    Thank you
    Piers Corbyn

  32. Colorado Bob says:

    Stephen Leahy @ 29 –

    Now comes the high sea surface temps to the reef, on top of this dump from the land.

  33. Colorado Bob says:

    This image, taken on Tuesday by NASA’s Aqua satellite, shows the large quantity of sediment dumped on the coast by floodwaters.

    The satellite used its Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer to show the waters around Cape Bowling Green turning muddy brown.

    It also shows a thick plume of sediment near the Great Barrier Reef.

  34. Sou says:

    #30 Mulga says ” I think that Gaia is frantically trying to get our attention.”

    The religious or those that look for signs could see messages in the flooding of coal mines in Queensland and the extensive fires and floods in Victoria over the past few years, another state that mines a lot of coal.

    That doesn’t of course explain the natural disasters in other regions or the fact that so many innocent human and other animals are paying the price. But then, as everyone knows, life isn’t fair.

  35. Dappledwater says:

    From Peru @ 18 – Not looking good for the Amazon Rainforest or Caribbean coral (more bleaching and mortality) if the warm SST’s persist into the NH summer. Maybe Peter Cox and associates were onto something after all?.

    Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution

    “Simulations for the twenty-first century using the same model show a strong tendency for the SST conditions associated with the 2005 drought to become much more common, owing to continuing reductions in reflective aerosol pollution in the Northern Hemisphere.”

  36. catman306 says:

    from The Future a song by Leonard Cohen 1992

    “Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
    Won’t be nothing
    Nothing you can measure anymore
    The blizzard, the blizzard of the world
    has crossed the threshold
    and it has overturned
    the order of the soul”

  37. Turboblocke says:

    Piers Corbyn sais: 1. We predicted very cold and have so far been totally confirmed but we also forecast certain mild periods (especially in South & SW)like around now. Read our forecasts instead of writing lies.
    See comments displayarticle.asp?a=290&c=5

    His link says: Our forecast for an exceptionally cold and also snowy January in Britain & West Europe stands and despite its unlikely occurrence according to standard views we expect with 80% confidence that much of Britain (eg Central England) to be in the three coldest Januaries in the last 100 years. I

    No mention of mild periods there.

    Later he repeats the erroneous missing stations meme.

    Note that this is the same guy who bet on snow falling on Christmas Day on 3 cities in the UK: Leeds, Newcastle and Norwich and then claimed victory when he got one right. Interestingly snow fell on 6 of the 18 cities used by one leading bookmaker, so I could have done just as well as him by betting on all of them.

  38. Turboblocke says:

    By the way in his link Corbyn says: Now it is confirmed that Dec 2010 in Britain and probably West Europe, was indeed the coldest for 100 years (at least!) – as we predicted* in the face of the opinion of all other forecasters;

    Yet back in October he had this to say about other forecasters who predicted a cold winter.
    He said the recent Positive Weather Solutions forecast of a coming cold winter should be ignored
    absolutely because PWS have no proven significant long-range skill and the summer was of the OPPOSITE
    nature to their forecast of ‘probably the hottest ever summer in the UK’ – see .
    On the other hand our WeatherAction forecast for a lousy summer was very well confirmed – Refs (3) & (2).
    “Our statement today is NOT a hint that the winter might in fact be the opposite to what others say. We are
    saying nothing”, Piers made clear

    Clearly he’s living in 1984: the novel.

  39. skywatcher says:

    Piers Corbyn, “solar-magnetic lunar matter”. You just destroyed waht little scientific credibility you had. That is a truly embarassing statement to attach your name to. Have you asked the physicists and astrophysicicsts to search for this mysterious matter that they have somehow missed in centuries of observation, let alone asked the atmospheric physicists how this unknown material affects Earth’s atmosphere?

    Sadly, you clearly have no idea about what drives the weather in Britain, and as has been shown many times before, the only time your forecasts are correct is when they are correct by pure coincidence.

  40. J Bowers says:

    Re. 11 CapitalClimate — “Those warm Baffin temperatures must be due to the urban heat island effect.”

    Same location and that very response to me only yesterday over at Lucia’s when I posted this link:

    No joke. Apparently UHI causes +20C above average temps these days.

  41. iceman says:

    Watts wrote in a post yesterday that “Hudson bay has started to freeze up…” Actually the NE area of the bay and Hudson Strait will be melting over the next few days: nearly unprecedented for Jaanuary.

  42. Esop says:

    #38 (Turboblocke): It appears that Mr. Corbyn is quote skilled… as a hindcaster. Making simultaneous casts does not take too much skill either.
    The science based forecast for major UK cities until the middle of the month is at or well above normal. That means the last half of the month will have to be extremely cold in order to meet Mr. Corbyn’s prediction of a top 3 coldest January. I hope Monbiot or some other reality based UK writer will make a story on this, as the Boris Johnson saga has caused enough damage.
    However, if the AO and NAO go nuts again, all odds are out, but so far January seems rather not “cruel” in olde Blighty.
    After a cold December, the UK weather is now right in line with what the MET office forecasted, but are the denier friendly British MSM taking notice? Probably not, they are too busy quoting BS from the anti-science disinformer brigade that has had a free pass to the press for way too long.

    That said, the warm winter forecast from the UK and Norwegian MET offices were ridiculously risky, as the greenhouse gas induced destabilization of the Arctic has made European winter weather extremely unpredictable.
    Note that NOAA predicted cooler than normal November and December temps for western and northern Europe. How come these forecasts are not touted in the press? Probably because the NOAA don’t agressively (and rather primitively) attack CO2 regulations at any opportunity, like the astrology based forecasters do.

    Sunspot activity is of course somewhat relevant, but not to the extreme degree that these aggressive anti greenhouse gas regulation types claim.
    The interesting thing is that the sunspot worshippers blamed the past summers’ heatwave on the increasing sunpot activity of the new solar cycle. It’s always the sun, it seems. Using the atmosphere as a sewer by dumping 30 billion tons of a well known greenhouse gas into it every year has no effect, of course.

  43. Turboblocke says:

    Esop #39: The Met office doesn’t make seasonal forecasts anymore.

    Winter forecast?

    28 October 2010

    Wet driving conditionsFollowing public research, the Met Office no longer issues long-range forecasts for the general public; instead we provide a monthly outlook on our website.

    Despite this, you may have seen some reports in the media on Thursday, suggesting the Met Office has produced a forecast for the coming winter.

    These media reports have based their interpretation for the coming winter on probability maps on our website. However, they have been selective about the information they have used and you should not take these interpretations as a guide to the coming winter. Instead we would recommend using our monthly outlook and short range forecasts.

    I,ve noticed some denier sites showing something that they claim was a Met Office winter forecast without noticing that it specifically says that it isn’t in red letters.

  44. John McCormick says:

    RE # 26

    P. G., many thanks for that fascinating link.

    This is an example of why I visit Climate Progress site constantly. It’s people such as yourself giving the rest of us more tools to understand what’s happening to our little planet.

    John McCormick

  45. MapleLeaf says:

    Folks regarding Corbyn’s drive-bye @31,

    I hope Joe allows this post to go through. Sorry for all the URLs. If anyone else can dig up some verification stats of Mr. Corbyn’s “forecasts”, then please pass them on.

    Please take time to read these insightful posts by James Annan, a respected climate scientist:

    From May 2005:

    “So, I emailed him to ask him if he could quantify his “considerable world cooling”, and whether he would consider a bet with me on the subject……I’ve not managed to get any reply out of him at all, still less a bet. For someone who claims a success rate of 80% or more with his forecasts, he seems remarkably reluctant to make any money out of this one.”

    From August 2005:

    “Corbyn’s theory, the details of which he has not revealed, predicts that changes in solar activity will cause “considerable world cooling” by 2040. Annan challenged him to a bet in May, but Corbyn says he did not receive the e-mail. “I’m happy to bet loads of money,” he says.”

    From November 2005:

    From August 2008:
    This post is excellent and shows just how unreliable Corbyn’s forecasts are.

    The internet doesn’t forget and the stats don’t lie Mr. Corbyn. Still not willing to wager a bet Pierce? But say you do, before you do that you need to tell us all exactly how much global SATs will decrease from current values by 2050, and specify a short window when you expect the alleged global cooling to start. You know, so we can all start stocking up on jerseys.

    So far that forecast is off to a lousy start:

    2010: Warmest calendar year on record in GISTEMP.
    2005: Second warmest year on record.
    2007: Third warmest.
    1998/2002: Tied for fourth warmest.
    2009: Fifth warmest on record.

    I’ll add another (easy) forecast for you. What will the summer minimum Arctic sea ice area be in 2050?

  46. Esop says:

    #32 (Piers):
    Good to have you here!
    Be sure to stop by, say on January 15th to comment on how January is coming along in the UK.
    It is mild right now, but we are only on January 6th, so plenty of time for the weather to cool down drastically before the mid-term evaluation of the forecast. On the other hand, being almost 1/4 into the month and being at or well above normal temps, it does not rhyme with the deep freezer January forecast.
    Temperatures in the Barents region appear not to go super warm (as they did in December) until at least that date, so I’m fairly confident that the UK will stay mild until then too.
    I checked the links posted above and I noticed claims that nobody mentioned the warm arctic-cold continents mechanism in 2009.
    I don’t know about 2009, but the mechanism was proposed back in 1914 (Hildebrandsson), and computer modelled by Magnusdottir in 2004 (how lack of ice in the Greenland sea would force a negative NAO). See also work from the Norwegian Bjerknes Centre, like Seiersted & Bader (2008).
    Positive NAO is linked to higher NH temps, but the situation we have now is likely that the extremely rapid decline of the sea ice has introduced a forcing that is stronger, thus the negative NAO from mid November to late December. BTW, a cold November/December leading to a mild January is nothing new. We have seen this in Scandinavia during 18 out of the last 23 winters since the winter climate went nuts in 88/89 (curiously the same time that the global average temp took a jump from reduced aerosol pollution).
    BTW, huge areas of Arctic sea ice melted in late December, (200,000 square kms just in Hudson Bay). The current average temperature for the high Arctic (above 80 degs latitude) is a full 5 degrees above normal. That is not quite in line with the claims of the catastrophic global cooling (cGC) that we read so much about in the denier friendly MSM.

  47. Esop says:

    #43 (Turboblocke): Very good point. Seems that the deniers had to fabricate the MET “forecast”. What else is new…
    BTW, I have noticed that there is a fanatic, UK based denier using a name very close to yours. However, reading the post makes it rather easy to differentiate, though!

  48. Esop says:

    # 31 (Piers Corbyn): The stated information about the claimed lack of mild periods for the English winter comes from your televised (by paying sponsors) forecast for the 2010/11 winter:
    There is no mention of mild periods for England. The mild periods mentioned are specific for western Russia and Ireland (especially western). It is also mentioned that the mild periods in Ireland will happen at a time when the rest of Europe is bitterly cold.
    Average temp for January in Dublin is approx 5.5 degs.
    Dublin will see 4C tomorrow and are forecast to reach 11C next week. From the televised forecast, the rest of Europe will remain bitterly cold. London is forecast to be at 10C at the same time. If that qualifies for bittely cold, I’m not sure.
    We’ll see next week.

  49. Richard Brenne says:

    Piers Corbyn (#31): While at one time the sun never set on the British Empire, tonight it set at 4:09 pm (in London). That is one solar prediction even you could make with some accuracy.

    There’s a reason we call it global warming and not England warming, and why educated people look at all the most reliable data over many years and don’t cherry-pick data for one small country for one month at a time. Implying that such cherry-picking somehow disproves global warming is fundamentally dishonest.

    Your statement that the Earth has cooled over the last 10 years is beyond ridiculous. Surely you must be speaking of another planet, maybe the one where you reside.

    Your statement that “CO2 has never driven, does not drive and never will drive weather or climate. Global warming is over and it never was anything to do with CO2. CO2 is still rising but the world is now cooling and will continue to do so.” must come from another planet in another dimension, because when CO2 increases on planets like Earth or Venus, temperatures rise.

    Your part in the “Great Global Warming Swindle” is appropriately titled, because swindles are something you know about, whether giving the student body president (starting with your own term) a sabbatical from academic work and a salary, or championing the rights of squatters over those who bought and owned the property, or those you get to pay for your weather forecasts that are accurate a reputed 55 per cent of the time, about the same as a lucky Holstein could pick.

    The farmers you swindle could write, “Whether next spring’s grass grows early or not is something Piers Corbyn predicts by looking only at the sun and old newspaper reports, evidently the comics. Knowing whether to buy fertilizer or not is helpful, and the most dependable fertilizer is Corbyn’s forecasts.”

    But other than that, thanks for visiting CP.

  50. Leif says:

    It will be interesting to see when/if the Arctic finally freezes over if the warm tongues from the Atlantic and Pacific subside. That would allow the now Continental Polar Air mass to contract a single cold mass over the pole where it “belongs”. Until that time it is weirdness all around.

    That’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it.

  51. Esop says:

    Here is the forecast for London (UK) until January 16th:

    It is mild there now, and we are talking daily temps up to 54F in the coming days. The average temp for London in January is approx 42F.
    Does this look like the so called “cruel”, hell-freezing-over conditions that Mr. Corbyn was talking about?

    Once we turn mid-month, someone in England should seriously make London mayor Boris Johnson retract his praise of Mr. Corbyn and offer an apology to the great people at the MET office.

  52. onthe dot says:

    Below is the latest extract from the British Met Office for the 11th -20th January 2011. As far as I can read these are not warm temeratures but rather normal temeratures of snow and rain, being rather typical of winter in Britain.
    “Temperatures will be rather cold at first in the north, with a risk of frost and ice, but should gradually become normal or mild for most and perhaps very mild in southern parts of the UK by the weekend. It will be windy, particularly in the north and west, with a risk of gales at times on exposed coasts and hills. The following week will remain unsettled with further spells of rain, although occasional colder interludes may give snow in some places.”
    So no real news story from Britain to show AGW is real. So as usual warmists stretch their facts to suit their views, but why let facts get in the way of a good story. But it has been a bitterly cold winter, with snow still on the ground for seven consecutive weeks in Scotland (next to the coast too).

  53. Esop says:

    #52 (onthe dot):
    Uhm.. it is 10C in London right now, at 6PM, that is 4.5C over the January average. Forecast tells us it will get to 14C (57F)in the coming days.:
    Snow on the ground in Scotland? What is that, 58degs latitude or something. That is the latitude of parts of Alaska and the Hudson Bay. Snow in January? Weird. Must be catastrophic Global Cooling (cGC)
    BTW, the G in AGW stands for Global. Britain is not what it used to be.
    December seems to have been somewhat cool at times in Britain, but if that translates to bitterly cold in a country that sits at the latitude of northern Canada, I understand why so many British polar expeditions have failed.
    Besides, what we talk about here is the failure of the January forecast. 10-14C in England in January is not cold, it is way warmer than normal and it completely disproves the January “hell freezes over” forecast of the global cooling alarmists that try to make money off their shameless global cooling scare.

  54. MapleLeaf says:

    This says it all about Mr. Corbyn really– in his own words:

    “Solar-lunar driven major jet stream blocking will continue through January and the whole of 2011 giving more extreme cold and snowy / blizzardy spells in parts of USA, Britain and Europe though January continuing into February and then not the sort of Spring and Summer the warmists want.

    “The warmists will fail and fail again to predict what is coming and are now writing scripts to deceive the public into believing that cold is warm by showing you “data” which has had 62% of recording station* they didn’t like removed. “It was disgraceful to see Dr Liz Bentley of The Royal Meteorological Society mouthing warmist apologist inanities on BBC news 24 on 5th Jan. I am a member of or have been associated with the RMS since schooldays and I know a lot of members don’t agree with this propaganda and don’t recall ever been asked if the RMS should promote it.”

    OMG. A fine example of ideological-driven propaganda and deception by Mr. Corbyn. Reads more like something from the Heartland Institute’s Farmer’s Almanac, should such a thing exist. Here is the link.

    And Corbyn’s forecast for the UK in January is going to be a bust.

  55. MapleLeaf says:

    I encourage all to read some of Mr. Corbyn’s ideological rants here, don’t consume any hot liquids while doing so though:

    This is what he had to say on 30 November 2010– when Europe was already in grip of unusual cold and snow:

    It is expected that two of the three months Dec, Jan & Feb are likely to be in the three coldest
    for a 100 years (eg using Central England Temperatures).”

    Now he was right about December (credit where credit is due, although the Met Office by this date would have known that too). He will be wrong about January. We’ll see what February brings. But the CFS and IRI data suggest nothing exceptional in February for the UK.

  56. Esop says:

    #54 and 55 (Maple Leaf):
    Very good points as always, and nicely spotted regarding the “through January” statement. Corbyn and the rest of the Ice Age Gang has received a ridiculous amount of press in the UK after the clueless mayor of London hailed him as a weather prophet. We will see if the press takes notice of this most embarrasing January failure. Monbiot should be up to the job, but it would be great if Joe could make a post on it, sometime around January 20th or so, as it is important to show the world how wrong these global cooling alarmists are. They can’t even get a monthly forecast right on a consistent basis. How can we trust them when they claim that we need to spend vast amounts of money preparing for cGC (catastrophic Global Cooling).
    Most of Europe is now way above normal. Places like Paris and Amsterdam that have 4-5C averages for January are seeing 10-15C right now. Eastern Europe, like Sofia (Bulgaria) is normally at -1C at this time, but are up at 10C these days (and have been way above normal for months).

  57. Will Crump says:


    The 2010 Arctic ice melt season had the latest start in the satellite record and for a couple of days at the end of March, sea ice extent (SIE) approached the average. Nevertheless, 2010 hit new record lows in June and September posted the third lowest SIE in the satellite record. If the end of March SIE is not useful to predict the September minimum, then the end of December SIE will be even less useful.

    By examining why 2010 established a record low for the month of December it becomes apparent that this record low will not have any impact on the September 2011 minimum. The December 31, 2010 record low of 11,914,688 km2 (per IJIS/JAXA) was due to reduced ice conditions primarily in Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay. Generally, these areas are ice free at the September minimum regardless of their December SIE, so a low December SIE for these areas has no affect on the September SIE.

    The following regions do contribute to the September SIE and they reached their maximum possiblie extent as of the end of December 2010 per the MASIE Time Series Plots :

    Beaufort Sea
    Chukchi Sea
    East Siberian Sea
    Laptev Sea
    Kara Sea
    Canadian Archipelago
    Central Arctic Basin – appears to have reached the maximum extent of 3.25 million km2 earlier than in prior years

    The Central Arctic Basin alone makes up approximately 80% of the SIE at the minimum, so it is this region that is most relevant to predicting the minimum. As the experience of 2010 shows, it is summer weather and wind conditions, not winter SIE that will determine if 2011 drops below 4.1 million km2 and sets a record low SIE.

  58. MapleLeaf says:

    Will @57,

    I don’t necessarily disagree with what you are saying. But I think that you may have completely missed the point of Joe’s post.