TIMBO, Colombia: … in the last few years, coffee yields have plummeted here and in many of Latin America’s other premier coffee regions as a result of rising temperatures and more intense and unpredictable rains, phenomena that many scientists link partly to global warming.
Coffee plants require the right mix of temperature, rainfall and spells of dryness for beans to ripen properly and maintain their taste. Coffee pests thrive in the warmer, wetter weather….
Purveyors fear that the Arabica coffee supply from Colombia may never rebound “” that the world might, in effect, hit “peak coffee.”
Climate-driven food insecurity is helping drive global political instability, as explored in my ongoing series. But it may take a while for the direct impact of higher food prices to be noticed by Americans, since, for instance, wheat comprises only a few percent of the cost of a loaf of bread.
The New York Times article, “Heat Damages Colombia Coffee, Raising Prices,” shows that climate change doesn’t just hit the staples: “The shortage of high-end Arabica coffee beans is also being felt in New York supermarkets and Paris cafes, as customers blink at escalating prices.” It is unusually clear on the impact of global warming:
“Coffee production is under threat from global warming, and the outlook for Arabica in particular is not good,” said Peter Baker, a coffee specialist with CABI, a research group in Britain that focuses on agriculture and the environment, noting that climate changes, including heavy rains and droughts, have harmed crops across many parts of Central and South America.
A top coffee scientist, he has rattled trade forums by warning, Cassandra-like, of the possibility of “peak coffee,” meaning that, like oil supplies, coffee supplies might be headed for an inexorable decline unless growers make more concerted efforts to expand production globally.
The Specialty Coffee Association of America warned this year, “It is not too far-fetched to begin questioning the very existence of specialty coffee.”
Obviously, the threat from global warming to specialty coffee would hardly be among the top 100 most worrisome impacts the world faces if we stay on our current path of unrestricted greenhouse gas emissions (see “A stunning year in climate science reveals that human civilization is on the precipice“). But the relatively delicate Arabica does appear to be yet one more canary in the coal mine for what’s to come:
Arabica and Robusta coffee account for virtually all consumption. With its more delicate taste and lower caffeine content, Arabica is more popular and more expensive, though generally more finicky in its weather needs. Robusta production dominates in Asia and Africa.
Colombia is the No. 2 Arabica exporter after Brazil, where production is centered on larger, more mechanized farms and continues to grow.
The Colombian Coffee Growers Federation says high fertilizer prices have also dented yields. But it agrees with a 2009 report from the International Coffee Organization that concluded, “Climatic variability is the main factor responsible for changes in coffee yields all over the world.”
Average temperatures in Colombia’s coffee regions have risen nearly one degree in 30 years, and in some mountain areas the increase has been double that, says Cenicaf©, the national coffee research center. Rain in this area was more than 25 percent above average in the last few years.
At the new, higher temperatures, the plants’ buds abort or their fruit ripens too quickly for optimum quality. Heat also brings pests like coffee rust, a devastating fungus that could not survive the previously cool mountain weather. The heavy rains damage the fragile Arabica blossoms, and the two-week dry spells that prompt the plant to flower and produce beans occur less often, farmers say. Arabica beans take about seven months to mature.
“Half a degree can make a big difference for coffee “” it is adapted to a very specific zone,” said N©stor Ria±o, a specialist in agroclimatology for Cenicaf©. “If temperature rises even a bit, the growth is affected, and the plagues and diseases rise.”
Imagine what will happen when temperatures change by several degrees, as seems all but unavoidable now (see M.I.T. doubles its 2095 warming projection to 10°F “” with 866 ppm and Arctic warming of 20°F).
Related Posts:
- S. Korean President: “There is an increasing likelihood of a food crisis globally due to climate change.”
- Half of world’s population could face climate-driven food crisis in second half of the century; Science study warns: “Ignoring climate projections at this stage will only result in the worst form of triage.”
Previous in TP Climate Progress
Language Intelligence: Lessons on persuasion from Jesus, Shakespeare, Lincoln, and Lady Gaga
“as a result of rising temperatures and more intense and unpredictable rains, phenomena that many scientists link partly to global warming.”
This should read:
“as a result of rising temperatures and more intense and unpredictable rains, phenomena that most climate scientists link to global warming.”
It’s getting more and more difficult for any news to make me spit-take my coffee, especially since the price has been going up.
Actually, the most imminent threat to coffee and all other vegetation isn’t climate change warming, drying and droughts (dire as those impacts certainly are and will worsen)…the most urgent existential threat to crops and yields and quality for us, not FUTURE generations! – is from…ta da…
AIR POLLUTION.
The background level of toxic gasses from volatile organic compounds is inexorably rising and travels globally – mutating and chemically reacting constantly…and is destroying life both vegetative and in the oceans…upon which a huge percentage of people rely for food…and oxygen to breathe!
We are in trouble…but it’s okay..
Surely, some clever scientist will figure out a way to geo-engineer, mitigate, or otherwise magically transform the catastrophe we confront by…who said it here on CP…carving enormous stone head statues!
Coffee, chocolate and wine. I have experienced the effect of heat on wine transported across country in a heat wave. Liquid bliss turned into yuk.
Global warming is biting now.
As sad as it sounds I started hoarding coffee a month ago. Also in my home garden in FL my tomatoes have failed the last three years. Peppers are OK but you can only use so many of them.
Dump your Starbucks stock.
“Imagine what will happen when temperatures change by several degrees,”…
Why several…coffee going to be off around 1C.
Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
I can take Peak Oil but coffee????????
The computer industry will shut down for a start – computers would not be invented without coffee :-)
Seriously what will it mean for the people that depend on the income from this? Coffee is or was the second most valuable traded commodity after oil.
Reduction in Arabica Coffe has also been reported in Turkey,India etc., due to Gl;obal Warming.
Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore(AP),India
I believe that coffee is number one of the most-traded commodities worldwide.
There are any number of places we could be marched to the end of the diving board over the “surprisingly” empty pool. This diving board is an economic Sea Change – called “rolling the dice” or “betting the farm”.
When the economic status quo: Milton Friedman devotees (Goolsbee minions?) and others who poo-poohed Herman Daly back in the day when we could have affordably prevented catastrophe had said, let’s make agriculture / food a key indice would we have changed course?
I’m with Ender.
Peak Oil? No problema.
Peak Coffee? Putting on riot gear, ready to take to the streets!
Yikes!!!!!
On a more serious note, an interesting consequence of the problems associated with the cultivation of coffee would be that of farmers switching to coca production. Think about the ramifications of that occuring.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/03/110313160025.htm
Untapped Crop Data from Africa Predicts Corn Peril If Temperatures Rise
ScienceDaily (Mar. 13, 2011) — A hidden trove of historical crop yield data from Africa shows that corn — long believed to tolerate hot temperatures — is a likely victim of global warming.
JR -
Just a thought, this story, and the one above that Mike linked at #13.
These two represent a category called “Biological Responses”.
Coral Bleaching, pine beetles, etc. A category on how life is changing.
I am a coffee lover. But I recognise that coffee has been one of the major reasons of deforestation and loss of habitat for many species in several countries like Brazil and Mexico. In the consumer’s side, the brewing for that little cup of espresso we have every morning emits more CO2 and uses more water than anything else done to bring the coffee to a point of sale. So, coffee’s demise is coffee growers own doing.
What with temperature rise, tropospheric ozone and increased precipitation, things look grim. But I suspect disease, in this and many other cases, fungal, will be a major vector through which these rapid changes manifest. The other day they were talking here of an introduced fungal pathogen of Myrtales, Uredo something or other, that arrived, possibly via Hawaii, from South America. We have lots of Myrtales here, and the first victims appear to be plantations of lemon myrtle and other related species grown for their essential oils. A hot, wet world will be paradise for fungi, especially as the climate change will be so rapid that adaptation will be near impossible. Fungi taking over the land and jelly-fish the sea-it certainly looks like we’ve ‘subdued’ the earth, alright. I wonder if our great ego-projection in the sky is pleased?