Congressional and administration officials tell CNN Osama bin Laden is dead. He was reportedly killed in Afghanistan.
John King reports he has been killed by a U.S. asset based on “actionable U.S. intelligence.” CNN reports he was in a mansion outside of Islamabad, Pakistan.
AP says it was a CIA operation and the United States has his body.
Thoughts?
UPDATE: This is, unsurprisingly, the lead story in Politico’s Morning Energy, which offers these implications for energy:
THE DEATH OF BIN LADEN “” The world is still absorbing President Barack Obama’s announcement Sunday night that the 10-year manhunt for Al Qaeda’s mastermind has ended with Osama bin Laden dead and his body in U.S. custody.
Among many unknowns are questions of how this will affect the struggle against terrorism and the war in Afghanistan, U.S. relations with the Muslim world (including nuclear-armed Pakistan) and the inevitable spillover into domestic politics, including energy policy….
IMMEDIATE ENERGY EFFECTS “” At the very least, bin Laden’s death knocks the gas-price debate from the top spot in the news cycle, shifting public attention to foreign policy and national security.
WHEN THE DUST SETTLES “” When gas prices return to the spotlight, expect refocused congressional and public attention on energy security and the geopolitics of Middle Eastern oil.
QUESTIONS MOVING FORWARD “” The price for oil futures fell during trading on Asian markets immediately after Sunday’s announcement, as some traders perhaps gambled that bin Laden’s death would eventually increase stability among oil exporters and lower global prices, Dow Jones reports. http://on.wsj.com/kGqy1h
The long-term effect of bin Laden’s demise on energy markets remains a matter of speculation.
If his death sparks widespread unrest among Al Qaeda sympathizers in Saudi Arabia and other petroleum-producing nations across the Islamic world, it could disrupt production, shorten supplies and raise prices. Anticipating potential unrest, the State Department has put U.S. diplomatic facilities on high alert and issued a global travel warning for U.S. citizens.
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Language Intelligence: Lessons on persuasion from Jesus, Shakespeare, Lincoln, and Lady Gaga
maybe it’s better this than catch him. he got under our skin, made us crazy, made us do bad things in response to his goading.
I clicked on the link and got to the site but the live stream is not working.
And the relevance of this for ClimateProgress is?
[JR: Oh, if you have to ask....]
I have the same question as David, and I hope there’s an explanation forthcoming. Thanks.
[JR: Let's see. The man led the organization and designed the attack that, aside from its other myriad impacts, probably influenced U.S. energy policy as much as anything else in the past decade. It drove the Iraq war, which would likely never have happened otherwise. It led to Bush's re-election -- single-handedly turning around what was heading to be an early failed presidency and leading both to Kerry's nomination and his fatal flip-flop. The failure in Iraq (and Afghanistan) helped bring about the Democratic resurgence and Obama's election (Hillary's support of the war probably contributing to her defeat). That's just off the top of my head, mind you. Oh, did I mentioned 9 friggin' 11?]
Great now we can all thump our chests with our fists, say something macho and go back to watching American Dad…
Hopefully this can be a transition point to break out of the Bush endless war.
JR — Yes, I’m too politically naive to see any relevance. So, it seems, is Lisa Boucher.
I fail to see how this is going to suddenly cause Congress to pass an FCOAD fee.
[JR: Apparently you are. I should add this has political implications for Obama now and in 2012. It is a 9 on the Richter scale news-wise and certainly merits a post and an invitation for comments. Everyone knows where they were on 9/11. This ain't the Royal Wedding.]
JR seems to have answered Lisa Boucher in the interim. Everything stated is in the past and that is what we (unfortunately) have to live with. But I still fail to see any relevance beyond historical, sorry. I fear you’ll have to spell it out for me.
[JR: Uhh, you jumped the gun here. Try reading my comment on your last comment. In any case, if you still can't see it, Mr. Spock, I'm nearing 7000 posts. Indulge me one. I live in DC.]
I don’t know CIA/NSA well enough to comment. Why not do a report of the Royal Wedding also?
[JR: I might. I wish the media gave AGW one tenth the focused coverage as they gave the RW.]
JR — Yup, I jumped the gun. Apologies. Your reply to comment #6 is suggestive, but then I don’t do politics much or well.
Better you living within the Beltway than me.
Why has this not been publicized if it is true? I will have to see it to believe it.
If OBL’s capture means the focus of U.S. foreign policy (and domestic policy) can shift to sustainable energy policy and climate change mitigation, then great. If OBL as a terror figure is simply replaced by a new terror figure, I will try not to be disappointed.
Thanks for posting this Joe, it is extremely relevant from the perspective of what has been driving US energy policy since the beginning of the century.
David Benson (#3) and Lisa Boucher (#4)
It’s late, but the words “petroleum” and “national debt” come to mind for further conversation about the relationship between Usama bin Laden and climate change.
To date, the US has spent over $1.1 trillion on war in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2001.
Yet, nowadays, some congressmen think we can’t afford to replace weather satellites.
It seems unlikely that the death of a man who essentially disappeared 8 years ago would have any effect at all on U.S. energy policy, Peak Oil, resource wars, or U.S. partisan politics. But it is a mildly interesting story.
[JR: I might. I wish the media gave AGW one tenth the focused coverage as they gave the RW.]
Too right, Joe! I was looking through the ABC site yesterday for any more news about the tornado outbreak – had to get through a firewall of Royal Wedding stories first!
As to OBL, where this leads next is anyone’s guess. In the short term, it is bound to raise Obama’s profile in a variety of ways (depending on which country one considers). I’m not American so I’m not going to attempt to guess how that will work out Stateside, but I will say that, as an observer from over the pond, it will be interesting to see how the GOP responds. Very interesting indeed.
Cheers – John
Umm… can we have our civil liberties back now please?
I guess it means that Obama and the UK can theoretically withdraw forces from the Middle East without loss of face. However, there is no excuse now for defending oil installations in Iraq or gas lines across Afganistan
I’m taking JR’s side on this one-this event certainly has implications for US politics, and I agree could play a role in election 2012. I also agree that Bush probably wouldn’t have been reelected if not for 9/11-of course maybe JR should do a post on the Florida recount and the fact that Gore actually would have won in 2000 if the count hadn’t been stopped by the now much diminished institution of the Supreme Court-imagine the alternate reality we would be living in if Gore had had 8 years.
Sorry Lisa and David, but I agree with Joe on this memorable news story.
Taking out OSB, the figurehead leader & arch enemy in our war on terror, clearly gives Obama a solid reason to do what even our military strategists say we should do: begin to aggressively ramp down our spending on outdated defense spending, and ramp up our spending on more ‘modern’ things such as citizen education, infrastructure and sustainability. I just sent a note to Obama, suggesting this, at http://www.whitehouse.gov.
In fact, this would also be an excellent time to sign on to ask Obama to lead on climate at http://www.change.org/global_warming_education_network.
duh. i mean cmon, this isn’t rocket science people – its just geopolitical feedbacks into global change during the collapse of industrial civilization
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhnUgAaea4M
The poor old USA has been having such a rough trot recently, I hope this highly symbolic event can generate more motivation and energy to get on top of some of your other problems. Looks like it might from all those people outside the White House, ME
Roger @16 — I hope you are right.
it won’t change the profiteering but it will change how people tolerate it.
mission FINALLY accomplished
I hope we can take a moment to examine yet another life lost.
Would Gandhi and the Reverend Martin Luther King have bent their heads in prayer?
He has a family. Will they miss him?
Did the values he espoused connect with us in any way?
If we ask these questions and answer them meaningfully we might begin to understand the current toxic imbalance of power and mindset that is taking down a planetary order that at one time, not long ago, seemed nurturing to humanity.
When the MSM pre-empts programming to feature the mob that rejoices in front of the White House, is this progress?
When the violent death of someone we loath is celebrated we lose our karma and loose the spirits of chaos.
Let us all pray for a consistent and compelling vision. The death of Osama bin Laden is not.
Let us pray.
I’m with Joe on this one – extremely relevant news. Beyond giving some closure to 9/11 victims, and having various political implications, there’s also the environment of fear that has plagued this country since 9/11, and was exploited by politicians to push trillion dollar wars, environment plundering for fleeting fossil fuels, and unjustified trust of Republicans to handle national security. That fear doesn’t disappear, but with the largest figurehead gone, it seems very weakened.
This puts it better than I could;
The moral plane of the universe is not somehow improved by the killing of a man. “Rejoice not when thine enemy falleth, and let not thine heart be glad when he is overthrown”–the author of Proverbs had it right. I believe all that … but I still think he deserved it.
And why did he “deserve it”. Why?
When we cry foul when big oil’igarchs reap immense profits?
When the planet that gives us life is pushed to the point that it may no longer sustain human life? Why?
We can rejoice when we’ve achieved a future that matches our vision. Mine is clean green energy that everyone can produce instead of being bound to purchase it from distant, probably giant, corporations.
Do we progress by eliminating our opponents? Or do we progress by bringing our vision fully to life?
The GOP in America is terrified that their vision of a “beautiful past” will be replaced by a “socialist non-religious, non-obediant future”. Until we clearly and concretely spell out a billion times how our future will play out we will not prevail.
Killing “enemies” is a reactionary vision for our future.
I forgot Osama’s prime usefulness to the US Empire. The al Qaeda ‘threat’ morphed into a ‘War on Terror’ that was a plain crusade by the US to occupy and control all the hydrocarbon rich states of the Middle East. Afghanistan, Iraq, now Libya, with Iran on the horizon, have already fallen, while the medieval despotisms of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States remain loyal and unmolested stooges. This is the last throw of the dice for a economically and morally bankrupt West, led by the US, to maintain its 500 year long reign of terror over the rest of humanity. Osama was a loyal ally, then a propaganda symbol, useful for ‘group hates’ outbursts aimed at Islam and Arabs, after he outlived his usefulness, just like Saddam Hussein and Noriega, amongst others.
pulling out of afghnistan? i don’t think so. US didn’t invade Afghnistan to kill Bin Laden, it invaded Afghnistan to install a regime friendly to US; And right now the Afghan regime is still too weak to stand on its own
Great news!
How long will it take Fox News to turn this into something bad to make Obama look bad? I’m guessing one day, max.
The war on terrorism has been altered for the good- the war against climate change is just beginning. Perhaps we an now shift our priorities.
More holes in the cover-story (what Sydney cops used to call ‘the laugh’). The Pakistanis say they were closely involved, the US says that they had no input. Obama killed, not captured, so no trial, no testimony, no judgment, and no chance to break Khaled Sheikh Mohammed’s waterboarding world record. The body buried at sea, immediately. OBL said to have lived in this villa for years, undetected by the USA despite Pakistan being infested for years by scores of CIA and independent contractor intelligence operatives. My credulousness is as great as the next dupe, but I smell an entire Hamelin of rats. The big question must be ‘Why now?’. Why not just before the 2012 election? Methinks something big is in the works.
OK, so we must rejoice at the killing without trial of a man accused of slaughtering thousands of innocent people in a far-away country.
Let us see. Can you think of other leaders who did the same? Are there, by any chance, somewhere in the world, in the US and the UK for example, leaders who : 1) attacked another country and 2) murdered thousands of innocent people?
And so we should rejoice at the killing without trial of these leaders in the US and UK?
Burning Down the House
To understand our failure to address AGW requires that we understand the demands of Empire. OBL and AGW are both threats to America as Empire. The office of the president of the United States is driven by the demands of Empire. To think that Gore or Kerry, like Obama, would have been free to chart any other course is naive.
The moment that America as empire recognizes AGW as the ultimate threat we will spare no expense in our defense.
Without oil there is no Empire. Both OBL and AGW (acknowledging and changeing in response to AGW) are seen as threats to oil.
Good point Pierre-Emanuel, but you ought, I believe, speak of the victims as numbering in the ‘hundreds of thousands’ to get a truer indication of the real extent of Western criminality in the latest phase of its 500 year crusade against the rest of humanity. Osama, religious bigot, atavist, fundamentalist and CIA ‘asset’ was a ‘wrong-un’ alright, but, compared to his former allies and paymasters, a mere beginner.
The relevance of this story and yet another lesson about the perils of oil can be found in bin Laden’s declaration of war on the United States. The U.S. is in Saudi Arabia for the oil, and bin Laden was desperately seeking nuclear weapons to force us out. No one knows for sure if he acquired them.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/library/congress/2006_rpt/al-qaeda_hpsci109-615-10.htm
The first ones out on the streets celebrating bin Laden’s expiration were young people who grew up under the threat of terrorism and Global Warming. Their generation is fighting and dying in the so-called “War on Terrorism,” while back home the adults are trying to obscure the real reasons for this mess by drawing the blinds between oil, terrorism and Global Warming/pollution. For God’s sake, we owe these kids the truth and a fighting chance. Bin Laden was a madman, but his story still needs to be kept front and center alongside Global Warming/pollution and oil.
Why are Americans so easy to fool?
Don’t forget that in the days immediately after 9/11, during the time of no US air flights, scientists discovered how much clearer our air would be without thousands of jet flights daily. Someone will have a good link.
This was a real-time climate change experiment that changed our understanding of the effects of air travel on the climate.
Joe, I love the “Breaking” Earth flash at the top of this news story. Yeah, the Earth is Breaking, breaking, breaking!
The relevance is clear to me: without America’s addiction to oil, there would have been no 9/11, no Osama bin Laden and no big news to talk about this morning.
Big news, and bigger news for Obama. I think over time this will have big implications for democrats and the political landscape. Once the budget battles are over, republicans will have nothing material to bring to the table. Obama even took credit for this! He’s learning.
As for energy and foreign policy…seems far more complicated at first glance. But maybe this will open up the culture of claustrophobia and fear that plagued this country during the 2000s and allow for real, positive changes.
This is great news. It is totally right to be on here. It will have a great political consequences for the upcoming US elections. Keep up the excellent work JR you are a must read for me every day.
I don’t think anyone really knows what the killing of bin Laden by US forces will lead to. It is true that he made a convenient focus for US moves in the Middle East and South Asia in order to “secure” oil supplies and so drove US politics for the last 10 years after he killed my cousin in WTC #1 on 9/11/01. But his death won’t change that focus on oil supplies or our whole culture of the unsustainable exploitation of Earth’s resources in any way. The mindset of this culture has actually driven civilization for the last 10,000 years, and it’ll take more than the death of one man with a warped vision to change where humanity is headed.
Re: catman306 | Post #39
8/8/2002
Air-traffic moratorium opened window on contrails and climate
http://www.nature.com/news/2002/020808/full/news020805-7.html
3/1/2004
Regional Variations in U.S. Diurnal Temperature Range for the 11–14 September 2001 Aircraft Groundings: Evidence of Jet Contrail Influence on Climate
http://facstaff.uww.edu/travisd/pdf/climatepapermar04.pdf
The grounding of all commercial aircraft within U.S. airspace for the 3-day period following the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks provides a unique opportunity to study the potential role of jet aircraft contrails in climate. Contrails are most similar to natural cirrus clouds due to their high altitude and strong ability to efficiently reduce outgoing infrared radiation. However, they typically have a higher albedo than cirrus; thus, they are better at reducing the surface receipt of incoming solar radiation. These contrail characteristics potentially suppress the diurnal temperature range (DTR) when contrail coverage is both widespread and relatively long lasting over a specific region. During the 11–14 September 2001 grounding period natural clouds and contrails were noticeably absent on high-resolution satellite imagery across the regions that typically receive abundant contrail coverage….. (continued at link)
I don’t know, guys.
The elimination of Bin Laden is no doubt a significant achievement but, frankly, I found the video of the teeming, cheering mob outside the White House kind of depressing.
Did the helicopter use biofuel? (Wanders off into Alpha Male Land wondering when he last heard “The Man Who Shot Liberty Valence”?)
With this news I expect the formation of a Deather movement that doesn’t believe bin Laden is dead unless the government releases his Death Certificate.
And do you know who else was announced dead on May First? Hitler!
How’s that for quickly invoking Godwin’s Law?
Maybe someone can enlighten me as to why they dumped the body at sea. I can understand they didn’t want a burial place to become a focus for bin Laden supporters, but was that the only way? It seems like the administration is inviting conspiracy theorists to speculate it wasn’t really bin Laden, or maybe wasn’t anybody at all.
[JR: Islamic law says burial within 24 hours. Can't do it on land, for the reason you stated.]
Some of these comments are a little weird. This action will certainly strengthen Obama’s presidency.
How many will call him a wuss or indecisive now?
It should help significantly strengthen the Democrats in the upcoming elections.
Which party is more likely to pursue legislation to reduce global warming.
Get with the program folks!
Not something to be happy about – revenge will only beget revenge, and we only honor him with martyrdom. Better he were taken alive.
Osama just gave Bush an excuse to carry out an invasion of the Middle East, long held and dearly desired by our financial elite as a very good thing.
Now of course, Osama is dead, so they say, so nobody can question him.
Certainly, he can not be water boarded 183 times like Khalid Shiekh Mohammed:
Times Online: KSM Water Boarded 183 Times
Water board me 183 times and I’ll tell you I’m the Queen of England.
This use of torture forever clouds the issue, and makes me wonder if this torture was used to create a false history of the events of 9/11, by a financial elite with a several trillion dollar motive to invade the Middle East.
Needless to say, in the absence of a trial, and witness who have not been water boarded 183 times, I’m a bit skeptical of official explanations.
This is a perfect opportunity for Obama to pivot on energy and “defense” policy. We’re in Afghanistan for the pipeline and Iraq for the oil, but China will benefit the most for the deaths of our brave young men. Time to get the hell out of the Middle East, forever.
A friend sent me a report about a study saying that oil related military expenditures are responsible for half of our national debt, or 7 trillion dollars. If we get off imported oil, we revive our economy and starve those of the terrorists, who hail from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and even Kuwait.
Of course, logic and facts are just two of many constituencies in Washington DC.
And Joe, I don’t get how some readers here don’t see the connection between the death of Bin Laden and energy policy in general. Usually people here are double sharp.
It has been suggested that the we as Americans are to blame for the rise of Bin Laden and al Qaida because if we had not been so dependant on oil from Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia, we would have never had to intervene in the Persian Gulf after Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait. Supposedly American support for the corrupt House of Saud, ignited Bin Ladens thirst for retaliation against America amd American interests in the Middle East leading to the attacks of 9/11.
Yet today we are even more dependant on oil from unstable and unfriendly regimes in the area. I wish President Obama would use this time as a teachable moment to show Americans of the danger of relying on oil from the Middle East.
Several years ago the Center for Strategic and International Studies issued a report that concluded that AGW would fuel terrorism by increasing poverty and discontent around the world thereby creating a major threat to America’s security (along with the rest of the developed world).
The task of defusing this ticking time bomb falls now on President Obama who has demonstrated that he is no wuss when it comes to dealing with terrorists. If he will now take the lead in the in combating climate change there is a slim chance that we will see a better world emerge, especially if renewable energy is the focus. This is still an area where the US can assert its leadership.
The forces aligned against Obama are staggering – the oil and coal industries with their massive treasure chests, a congress that works for them, the corporate media, Karl Rove’s phantom organizations, plutocrats in general and all their flunkies. To some extent, the mid-term elections of 2010 was about America’s energy policy. Just look at where the money came from. The lack of a clear, coherent vision for America’s energy future lead to the ass kicking the Democrats experienced (along with allowing the Republicans to pin the unemployment and deficit problems – which the GOP massively contributed – on the Democrats).
2012 will be an exciting year – there is a lot riding on it. Either a chance for better world built on renewable energy or the accelerating destruction of our user friendly climate.
RE #44, #53
I don’t think this necessarily allows Obama to “pivot” on energy policy, but it definitely sets up the opportunity to create a new narrative in terms of how America views itself on the world stage, how we structure our defense policies, and how these in turn influence the development of other domestic policies. It will take some seriously shrewd political maneuvering to channel the public’s energy over this event into structural changes here at home.
I agree with Ed. One man’s death won’t be the one big thing that puts us on the right path. It’s going to take a confluence of many, many events to get us to effectively address climate change. But this, I believe, is without a doubt one of those events. It’s a step forward on many fronts — defense and foreign policy most directly, but energy and infrastructure policy more indirectly.
Thomas Friedman described the post-9/11 era as one in which we built “walls” around our nation and allowed security to overwhelm and strangle priorities such as interior and energy development. I always felt that was a pretty accurate depiction of how our national character has changed over the last decade. This could be a chance to change all that.
Obama gets the credit and it boosts his political image. It’s election year next year.
Will there be thanks and congratulations from Sara Palin and John Boehner given to this socialist president? Will Donald Trump attribute it to an American or a Kenyan? Hmmm…
Thanks for the explanation JR. However I was just listening to Brian Lehrer playing clips of people asking “where’s the body?” Let’s hope we don’t go straight from birth certificate to death certificate nonsense!
I gather the go is that this w/could strengthen the President’s tailwind into the 2012 election and the headwind for would-be challengers in the general election, and potentially in the primary. It surely can’t hurt with independents, even as focus remains on the economy. It’s kinda funny how the republicans are deflecting praise to the “intelligence community,” which is composed largely of beaurocrats that the GOPees and their mouthpieces vilify so routinely. With OBL gone, I suppose we’ll find another bogeyman to fight rather than deal with true issues.
”War must be, while we defend our lives against a destroyer who would devour all; but I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend.” – Faramir, LoTR, Tolkien
The question never asked, much less answered in any serious depth after 9/11, is why people a half a world away would want to wage a holy war against the West? Is it Religion? Capitalism? Corporate rape & pillage?. ???
Can and do we assume that our hands are clean in this campaign? Would/could the Battle end with such understanding?
In light of western man’s capacity to fowl our nest and our wanton pursuit of wealth for the few above the welfare of humanity. In our multi-century ascension to “Top Dog” we fail to look back at the trail we leave behind.
The blood on our hands.
Small Pox Blankets to the First Nations People.
Prairies denuded of buffalo and starvation of more thousands.
Slave labor by the millions.
Child labor with the sick thrown on the streets to fend for themselves….
Moving on….
World wide, we poison the mountain waters, the land, the ocean, the very air we breath…
We “Harvest” the forests and destroy the home of countless species the world over…
We Turn a blind eye to our past as we continue to disrupt the very life support systems of EARTH. We live our life style only because we commit crimes against the future of our children. The children of the natural communities that sustains us.
What is the proper response when presented with such a threat?
Terrorism? Civil disobedience? Quiet rebellion? Marching in the Streets? Acquiescence?…
Surely we can at least ask the question…
How can we defend such a legacy with such a determination?
Without even ASKING…???
I always believed we could get OBL anytime but considered him useful. When we see that he was “hiding” in a million dollar compound 100 yards from a military base in Pakistan, I think it confirms my suspicions.
[JR: Oh, c'mon. If Bush/Cheney could have gotten OBL, they surely would have. And if Obama could have chosen his time, now wouldn't have been it.]
[i]joy hughes says:
May 2, 2011 at 9:32 am
Not something to be happy about – revenge will only beget revenge, and we only honor him with martyrdom. Better he were taken alive.[/i]
I somehow doubt, though, that faced with the situation he would have said: “OK – it’s a fair cop. I’ll come quietly”. It’s difficult to imagine that would have been in his nature somehow.
Cheers – John
Politics aside the President showed leadership, made the decision to put the SEALS into action. He had several options and apparently went against the tide and decided on a small scale approach that obviously paid off handsomely. SEAL teams are trained for exactly this kind of operation and we should all be thankful for their expertise and zeal in completing their action. Killing enemy number one comes with a mixed message and mixed feelings for most Americans. We watched the coverage of the folks gathering in New York and DC and shared the feeling of finally we got him. The carnival atmosphere with the flag waving and chants of USA, USA was so American in nature and perhaps not understood by much of the world. I, for one, normally would not cheer or celebrate the death of anyone, but in this case I find no sorrow with the results of this action.
What motivates the men and women of the armed forces to risk their lives and what factors really drive geopolitics don’t match up all that well. Concept of Iraqi freedom, finding weapons of mass destruction, limiting the Taliban, and tracking down bin Laden somehow cost the US over a trillion dollars.
One fossil-fuel background piece to the conflicts in the Middle East is the currently limited access to the petroleum and gas reserves in central Asia.
Once the Iraq and Afghanistan wars wind down, it will be interesting from an energy view point to see what develops, and the implications for carbon emissions.
In 1998 Dr. Constantine Arvanitopoulos did an paper published in “Thesis” on the Geopolitics of Oil in Central Asia with some neat maps and a list of the pipeline options.
http://www.hri.org/MFA/thesis/winter98/geopolitics.html
Here’s Dr. Arvantipoulos’ 1998 list:
1. The northern route favoured by Russia. According to this option, Kazakhstan would expand its existing pipelines to link them to the Russian network and Azerbaijan would build a pipeline from Baku to Novorossisk. The shortcomings of this option have to do with fears of establishing excessive Russian control over the pipeline and also the issue of security, since the pipeline would go through Chechnya.
2. The western route favoured by Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia and the United States. This pipeline route would bring the oil to the Georgian port of Supsa and then ship it through the Black Sea and the Bosporus to Europe. Turkey insists that the straits cannot cope with increased tanker traffic and has proposed, instead, to construct a pipeline from Baku to the port of Ceyhan on the Turkish Mediterranean coast. However, excessive costs (around $2.9 billion) and serious security concerns (this route would pass through unstable Kurdish territory) make this option difficult to implement. Instead, the Bosporus could be by-passed by a pipeline linking the Bulgarian port of Burgas with the Greek port of Alexandroupolis.
3. The southern route. Economically, this is the most viable option, since Iran already has an extensive pipeline system, and the Gulf is a good exit to the Asian markets. The United States, however, has practically vetoed this option.
4. Eastern route. This pipeline would transport oil from Kazakhstan to China. It will be the costliest pipeline (covering 2,000 km in Kazakhstan alone) but the Chinese consider it as a strategic decision and are willing to implement it.
5. South-eastern route. The American oil company Unocal has proposed the construction of oil and gas pipelines from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan and later to India. This route makes sense geographically but not politically, since it will have to go through unstable Afghanistan.
Surely Osama made a video to be released in the event of his death. Do you think it will mention ‘oil’?
Calling the military action that took out Osama ‘American justice’ bothers me. There was not trial, judge, jury, prosecutor, or defense attorney. It was a military action, not an example, I would hope for all times, of ‘American justice.’
The fact that Bin Laden was killed in a very large fortified compound (in plain sight to anyone who lived nearby) in what could be considered a “suburb” of Islamabad as opposed to a cave in the mountains leads me to believe that his concealment from the US was aided and abetted by the security and intelligence apparatus(ISI)of Pakistan.
Interactive map showing location of compound:
http://www.mappingsupport.com/p/gmap4.php?ll=34.169252,73.242685&t=s&z=18&label=no&coord=latlng
“[JR: Oh, c'mon. If Bush/Cheney could have gotten OBL, they surely would have. And if Obama could have chosen his time, now wouldn't have been it.]”
Bush/Cheney had their chance in 12/01 at ToraBora — they screwed it up.
[JR: Yes, but that ain't the same and you know it. That's incompetence, not conspiracy.]
Perhaps… maybe… if the results turned out differently, only one short war with no nation building added would have resulted.
B/C also managed to this at the same time: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/running-in-the-red-how-the-us-on-the-road-to-surplus-detoured-to-massive-debt/2011/04/28/AFFU7rNF_story.html
What a political high-wire moment this was for Obama.
He learns that OBL is in a compound in Pakistan near a military base, in a city. He decides on a high risk surgical strike when he could have tried political pressure etc. He orders the strike, then plays golf, and humiliates Trump at a large public gathering.
Imagine if the strike had failed. Comparisons to Carter, Trump resurgent, relations with Pakistan trashed etc etc.
Politically, he did not need this operation to secure his re-election. A lesser politician might have had reason to delay.
So politically, and climate change wise, this really does matter. Because if the operation had gone wrong a resurgent GOP would have well and truly buried the new energy/green economy.
You could even argue that Obama took a huge gamble with all of his agenda – including the green economy. Happily it has paid off.
“[JR: Yes, but that ain't the same and you know it. That's incompetence, not conspiracy.]”
Sorry JR, I just don’t see as black and white as you do.
I don’t see as 100% incompetence or 100% conspiracy — there is not enough credible information out there to declare as such.
What about Tora Bora which we heard about constantly fron Kerry? The implication was that we could have gotten him then but let him get away.
I’m no Osama bin Laden fan, but I’ve never rejoiced in the death of anyone and don’t feel that’s a habit I want to begin.
(And just for the record, an Islamic scholar friend of mine assures me that jihadists don’t receive 72 virgins in heaven, but no more than 58 or so, tops.)
I am a fan of David B. Benson and think his apology is impressive, as was Joe’s answer to him and Lisa Boucher in comment #4. (I’m sure I’m a Lisa Boucher fan as well, I’m just more familiar with David’s many excellent comments.)
NBC once sent me to Commando Camp taught by three Green Berets for a script I was writing and I found their skill set impressive (in our pugil stick fight when I had the temerity to poke the commander – not a euphemism – he swatted me so hard I was looking out the earhole of my helmet), and further research about the Navy Seals helped me understand that they’re pretty much the ultimate warrior dudes.
So if the primary goal after 9/11 was to take out Osama bin Laden and the other highest-ups in Al Queda and the Taliban, what if we hadn’t spent well over a trillion (after all the VA benefits over all the lifetimes of all the soldiers, many trillions) on Afghanistan and Iraq?
What if we’d put less than a hundredth of that money into more training for more SEAL-type dudes, more language and culture schools, more eyes on the ground, more operations like this one?
Before our friends and spiritual mentors Merrelyn, Mulga and Sailesh beat me like a rented mule about this I’ll just say in advance that yes I know you’re right. I’ve been speaking on a much lower plane of reality, the one where I spend most of my time in an overcrowded coach (and we never seem to leave the tarmac).
If Osama was the good guy or somehow neutral or hadn’t killed any innocents (kind of like saying if the Confederacy hadn’t been about perpetuating and promoting slavery), then at least in the one isolated category of a rich guy living a harsh, dangerous life in caves appeared to illustrate his sincere belief in his cause.
But no, that was PR (one thing rich folks are especially good at) and photo-ops, a lot like Bush reading “My Pet Goat” (maybe in bin Laden’s case, “My Former Pet Goat”).
So I guess the last superrich dude to leave all the status, ego, fame, luxury and comfort for a cause was Buddha 2500 years ago after all.
this is amerika: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9SlCtIz0j4
NOW what will the U.S. do for a scapegoat? (Sigh!)
Let’s see… there was no way in hell the elite were going to allow Al Gore win the presidency! His whole life for decades centered around the issue of climate change. The Elite (funded by the fossil fuel industry, drug money, etc.) had no choice except to do what they did (basically a coup de etat). And then with the promise of an attack on WTC they had the perfect excuse for the following fascist shift– robbing us of our constitutional rights and conquering other lands for oil… yes, they had no intentions of permaculture, clean energy and all the other good intentions which could saved us… they were looking to expand their own bottom line and that was exactly what they did. Ben Laden was a scapegoat and now he’s gone…
There were multiple “war games” going on the morning of 9-11. War games which caused so much confusion that when the real attack occurred, all the air traffic comptrollers were asking, “is this a real attack or what?” No one knew what was going on. Ordinarilly, our fighter jets could be up in the sky in a matter of minutes, but on that particular morning, they were all sent away on a wild goose chase. And yet our government knew that an attack was coming. They knew an attack by Al Queda was planned for that week. Who was in charge of the multiple war games which threw everyone off? And why were no fighter jets around when they knew of an impending attack? Read “Crossing the Rubicon– the Decline of the American Empire at the end of the age of oil” There’s a lot more to meet the eye than you think!!!