The National Renewable Energy Laboratory released this chart today from an upcoming report on the number of renewable energy projects underway in the U.S. as of the fourth quarter of 2010. The results are striking: With over 4000 Megawatts (4 Gigawatts) of projects over 1 MW and around 1.3 GW under 1 MW in some phase of development, Solar PV is hitting its stride.
Q4 results from NREL’s Project Finance Tracking Initiative
We should make a couple very important notes.
This data that has been collected from a voluntary pool of solar companies, and the figures do not necessarily reflect projects that will be completed. For example, in the third quarter of 2010 there were 6 GW of solar PV projects underway, but only 500 MW actually closed financing. This is because many developers (so-called sponsors in project finance) are on the small side and often approach investors without a solid plan of execution. Compare that to wind – a sector with much larger and more mature developers – which had 5 GW planned with 2.5 GW closing financing, according to NREL.
Although these figures are somewhat limited, they do highlight the underlying story: Given the incredible cost and price reductions seen in solar over the last few years (50% price declines in modules since 2008, 20% decline in installed price in 2010 alone), solar PV is on a path to large-scale adoption, similar to where wind has gone over the last decade.
Analysts predict that between 1.5 GW and 2 GW of solar PV will come online this year in the U.S., with potentially 10 GW being installed in the country each year by 2015. That’s equal to the wind industry’s biggest year in 2009. Solar hasn’t reached the scale or maturity of wind yet, but it’s on the right path.
– Stephen Lacey
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I’m curious as to what the prospects are for economically sensible small-scale PV for home owners. Will it make financial sense any time soon for people to install panels on their roofs?
Re: @ #1: It makes sense in Washington State IMO if you have a sunny location and modest requirements. See Comment #43 in “why clean energy can scale” posted earlier today. Contact me if you want better numbers. I can be found.
Burning Down the House
Analysis of the PV panels on my home by an accountant:
http://www.graniteviewpoint.com/search/label/solar
Christopher, thanks for your answer to Cervantes’ question. The governing variable is usually the discount rate in these situations. Homeowners can dilute that evaluation by plugging in asset valuation increases.
Well, 15 1/2 year payback time isn’t really good enough to get many people to do it. There are better investments. But it looks like we’re getting close anyway. And of course, New Hampshire is about the worst place to be doing this. (I’m in CT, also not great.) It should look a lot better in sunnier and more southerly locations.
The complete global warming solution: 14 wedges of solar PV
cervantes, the analysis provided for Christopher’s PV is well done, but it is 18 months out of date. For retail PV modules, costs have really dropped since then, to around 2.50$/watt for name brand panels. Installers are getting more skilled all the time–meaning they can get in and out of job in a day or so. Around here, the panel distributor just drops off a pod at the site with everything needed, it takes about a day to do the install (and a month to get the utility to change out the meters), and all the packing materials go back in the pod for reuse.
Another issue is the inverter cost. Several companies are selling microinverters which connect with one or two panels, right on the roof. These microinverters are not signifigantly cheaper, yet, but these are 200 watt devices which could very likely be mass produced quite cheaply.
Combine a 2$/watt module with a 0.5$/watt inverter, and minimal installation costs, and a 5 kilowatt system is now under 20k, before the federal 30% tax credit. Depends on the definition of soon, but I would not be surprised to see sub 4$/watt professional installations by late 2012, trending down. Put the cost on a home equity loan. Maybe we need “home energy loans”…
I’m a believer in putting solar thermal on the roof – 70% efficient. Solar PV can go on the parking lots and brownfields, owned by customers as solar gardens. Abegnoa does big-roof CSP that can suppply heat for industrial processes- much more efficent than running a turbine.
Burning Down the House
1. Forget the solar panels until you know what your energy consumption is and you have reduced it by at least half.
2. Reduce, reduce, reduce. The house in the article is a near zero energy house that approaches the Passive House standard.
3. I would love to say more but it is time for sleep.
Chris
Concerning #1 – we put a 5KW system on our house last year and with the federal and state credits, the payback time should be nine years. That takes into account our Northern California PG&E tiered rate structure. We figure we’ll be in this house for a while so we’re happy to make the investment. But a new study shows that even if we sell, our panels will probably increase the value of our house.
http://blogs.kqed.org/climatewatch/2011/04/22/report-solar-panels-boost-home-prices/
Once read/heard comment by a very frustrated seller/installer of PV systems that went something like this:
Same people who wouldn’t blink at $10,000 for a new kitchen will insist on a solar system providing a reasonable “payback time”.
Stephen, great post and I am so glad you are on board at CP here. While I don’t want to have a sugar-coated view of the world, it sure is nice to read some good news.
I hope a higher percentage of these planned solar projects close this time around. We sure need it.