The debate may be fiery, but it’s also phony. AAP
The Conversation wraps up its climate series with a statement from leading Australian acientists: The debate is over. Let’s get on with it.
Over the past two weeks The Conversation has highlighted the consensus of experts that climate change caused by humans is both real and poses a serious risk for the future.
We have also revealed the deep flaws in the conduct of so-called climate “sceptics” who largely operate outside the scientific context.
But to what extent is the “science settled”? Is there any possibility that the experts are wrong and the deniers are right?
Certainty in science
If you ask a scientist whether something is “settled” beyond any doubt, they will almost always reply “no”.
Nothing is 100% certain in science.
So how certain is climate science? Is there a 50% chance that the experts are wrong and that the climate within our lifetimes will be just fine? Or is there a 10% chance that the experts are wrong? Or 1%, or only 0.0001%?
The answer to these questions is vital because if the experts are right, then we must act to avert a major risk.
Dropping your phone
Suppose that you lose your grip on your phone. Experience tells us that the phone will fall to the ground.
You drop a phone, it falls down.
Science tells us that this is due to gravity, and no one doubts its inevitability.
However, while science has a good understanding of gravity, our knowledge is only partial. In fact, physicists know that at a very deep level our theory of gravity is inconsistent with quantum mechanics, so one or both will have to be modified.
We simply don’t know for sure how gravity works.
But we still don’t jump off bridges, and you would be pretty silly to drop your phone onto a concrete floor in the hope that gravity is wrong.
Climate change vs. gravity: Greater complexity, comparable certainty
Our predictions of climate change aren’t as simple as the action of gravity on a dropped phone.
The Earth is a very complex system: there are natural effects like volcanoes, and variations in the sun; there are the vagaries of the weather; there are complicating factors such as clouds, and how ice responds; and then there are the human influences such as deforestation and CO₂ emissions.
But despite these complexities, some aspects of climate science are thoroughly settled.
We know that atmospheric CO₂ is increasing due to humans. We know that this CO₂, while being just a small fraction of the atmosphere, has an important influence on temperature.
We can calculate the effect, and predict what is going to happen to the earth’s climate during our lifetimes, all based on fundamental physics that is as certain as gravity.
The consensus opinion of the world’s climate scientists is that climate change is occurring due to human CO₂ emissions. The changes are rapid and significant, and the implications for our civilisation may be dire. The chance of these statements being wrong is vanishingly small.
Scepticism and denialism
Some people will be understandably sceptical about that last statement. But when they read up on the science, and have their questions answered by climate scientists, they come around.
These people are true sceptics, and a degree of scepticism is healthy.
Other people will disagree with the scientific consensus on climate change, and will challenge the science on internet blogs and opinion pieces in the media, but no matter how many times they are shown to be wrong, they will never change their opinions.
These people are deniers.
The recent articles in The Conversation have put the deniers under the microscope. Some readers have asked us in the comments to address the scientific questions that the deniers bring up.
This has been done.
Not once. Not twice. Not ten times. Probably more like 100 or a 1000 times.
Denier arguments have been dealt with by scientists, again and again and again.
But like zombies, the deniers keep coming back with the same long-falsified and nonsensical arguments.
The deniers have seemingly endless enthusiasm to post on blogs, write letters to editors, write opinion pieces for newspapers, and even publish books. What they rarely do is write coherent scientific papers on their theories and submit them to scientific journals. The few published papers that have been sceptical about climate change have not withstood the test of time.
The phony debate on climate change
So if the evidence is this strong, why is there resistance to action on climate change in Australia?
At least two reasons can be cited.
First, as The Conversation has revealed, there are a handful of individuals and organisations who, by avoiding peer review, have engineered a phony public debate about the science, when in fact that debate is absent from the one arena where our scientific knowledge is formed.
These individuals and organisations have so far largely escaped accountability.
But their free ride has come to an end, as the next few weeks on The Conversation will continue to show. The second reason, alas, involves systemic failures by the media.
Systemic media failures arise from several presumptions about the way science works, which range from being utterly false to dangerously ill-informed to overtly malicious and mendacious.
Let’s begin with what is merely false. A tacit presumption of many in the media and the public is that climate science is a brittle house of cards that can be brought down by a single new finding or the discovery of a single error.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Climate science is a cumulative enterprise built upon hundreds of years of research. The heat-trapping properties of CO₂ were discovered in the middle of the 19th century, pre-dating even Sherlock Holmes and Queen Victoria.
The resulting robust knowledge will not be overturned by a single new finding.
A further false presumption of the media is that scientific opinions must somehow be balanced by an opposing view. While balance is an appropriate conversational frame for the political sphere, it is wholly inappropriate for scientific issues, where what matters is the balance of evidence, not opinion.
At first glance, one might be tempted to forgive the media’s inappropriate inclusion of unfounded contrarian opinions, given that its function is to stimulate broad debate in which, ideally, even exotic opinions are given a voice.
But the media by and large do not report the opinions of 9/11 “truthers” who think that the attacks were an “inside job” of the Bush administration. The media also do not report the opinion of people who believe Prince Phillip runs the world’s drug trade. The fact that equally outlandish pseudo-scientific nonsense about climate science can be sprouted on TV by a cat palmist is evidence not of an obsession with balance but of a striking and selective failure of editorial responsibility.
What is needed instead of the false symmetry implied by “balance” is what the BBC calls impartiality – fact-based reporting that evaluates the evidence and comes to a reality-based conclusion.
The dangerously ill-formed
An example of a dangerously ill-informed opinion on how science works is the widely propagated myth that scientists somehow have a “vested interest”, presumably financial, in climate change. This myth has been carefully crafted by deniers to create a chimerical symmetry between their own ties to political and economic interests and the alleged “vested interests” of scientists.
In actual fact, climate scientists have as much vested interest in the existence of climate change as cancer researchers do in the existence of the human papilloma virus (HPV).
Cancer researchers are motivated by the fact that cervical cancer kills, and the scientists who developed the HPV vaccine did so to save lives, not to get their grants renewed.
Climate scientists are likewise motivated by the fact that climate change kills 140,000 people per year right at this very moment, according to the World Health Organization.
The scientists who have been alerting the public of this risk for nearly 20 years did so to save lives, not to get their grants renewed.
Climate scientists are being motivated by the realisation that humanity has got itself into serious trouble with climate change, and it will need the best scientific advice to navigate a solution.
As scientists, we ask not for special consideration by the media, but simply for the same editorial responsibility and quality control that is routinely applied to all other arenas of public discourse.
Selective failure of quality control and editorial responsibility when it comes to climate change presents a grave public disservice.
Finally, no truthful analysis of the Australian media landscape can avoid highlighting the maliciousness of some media organisations, primarily those owned by Newscorp, which are cartoonish in their brazen serial distortion of scientists and scientific findings.
Those organisations have largely escaped accountability to date, and we believe that it is a matter of urgency to expose their practice.
For example, it is not a matter of legitimate editorial process to misrepresent what experts are telling Newscorp reporters — some of whom have been known to apologize to scientists in advance and off the record for their being tasked to return from public meetings, not with an actual news story but with scathing statements from the handful of deniers in the audience.
It is not a matter of legitimate editorial process to invert the content of scientific papers.
It is not a matter of legitimate editorial process to misrepresent what scientists say.
It is not a matter of legitimate editorial process to prevent actual scientists from setting the record straight after the science has been misrepresented.
None of those sadly common actions are compatible with legitimate journalistic ethics, and they should have no place in a knowledge economy of the 21st century.
The very fact that society is wracked by a phony debate where there is none in the scientific literature provides strong evidence that the Australian media has tragically and thoroughly failed the Australian public.
Australian Professorial Fellow, Cognitive Science Laboratories at University of Western Australia
Professor of Astrophysics at University of New South Wales
Professor and ARC Federation Fellow at University of Melbourne
Professorial Fellow, ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematics and Statistics of Complex Systems at University of Melbourne
Associate Professor, Mechanical Engineering at University of St. Thomas
Michael J. I. Brown
ARC Future Fellow and Senior Lecturer at Monash University
Director, Melbourne Energy Institute at University of Melbourne
Director, Global Change Institute at University of Queensland
Below are the earlier comments from the Facebook commenting system:
This is a timely summary in language that reaches across many educational backgrounds. To illustrate with humor, if not prove, the fallacy of calling for “balanced,” consider that horse manure is less dense than gold. To balance a cubic foot of horse manure (~67 lb./ see you. ft) with gold, one needs only 0.0556 cubic feet of gold. Go for the gold! (I have to put in a disclaimer as an ecologist, as I appreciate the value of real horse manure, just not the political variety.)
I see the post included a “see you” MS Word intrusion/substitution for cu. (as in cubic). It’s the first I’ve seen that in FB.
July 5 at 9:31am
From many I have spoken to- the media has either failed in its duty to tell the truth, or they have been ‘told what to say’ by the powers above.
For those who even believe in human caused climate change, they do not understand the significance of C02 levels. Climates of the past in comparison to what is happening today, and extrapolating that into the future.
I see no change until we begin to be slammed by various harsh climatic events that begin to alter our society. My impression is that is 15-30 years away. We know of course by then the trick is up- if we wait that long – then ‘start’ to reduce emissions- the feedback’s will be too powerful to stop catastrophe.
Excellent article, and one that is applicable anywhere this “debate” continues.
I was online when the Chinese Sulphur study popped-up. Yesterday, Watts had a PDF , and had already issued marching orders to spin it as a great victory, the deniers were marching in line.
“No warming since 1998 “……. Blah, blah, blah.
The money quote from the author , Prof Robert Kaufman in the Guardian , this wasn’t in the original AP story :
” But rather than suggesting that cutting carbon emissions is less urgent due to the masking effect of the sulphur, Prof Robert Kaufman, at Boston University and who led the study, said: “If anything the paper suggests that reductions in carbon emissions will be more important as China installs scrubbers [on its coal-fired power stations], which reduce sulphur emissions. This, and solar insolation increasing as part of the normal solar cycle, [will mean] temperature is likely to increase faster.”
Prof Joanna Haigh, at Imperial College London, commented: “The researchers are making the important point that the warming due to the CO2 released by Chinese industrialisation has been partially masked by cooling due to reflection of solar radiation by sulphur emissions. On longer timescales, with cleaner emissions, the warming effect will be more marked.”
The gun has a lot more bullets in it.
I’m convinced that the only remedy in the face of mendacious behavior by a major news organization (e.g., Newscorp) is a countervailing loud voice in the opposite direction – shout louder than they do. In other words, rational arguments unfortunately have little sway in a media-generated, staged faux debate where both sides (scientists with near 100% agreement over a long time period and opportunistic parties with little scientific backing) get equal time, with announcers then managing the carnival side show and favoring the denier view. If that is the name of the game, then the only alternative is to play the game better than they do. Shame the other side with staged events. Ridicule the other side with ludicrous examples designed to get repeated in the mainstream media. Repeat ad nauseum until the debate begins to shift. This is a market-dominated world, where rational scientists and rational viewpoints get routinely shouted down, a la the movie Idiocracy.We need to fight fire with fire.
Where is the money going to come from to shout louder than the international-oil-business-backed witch-hunt against decent scientific information? Those lobbies can throw billions at it and they do.
The only solution I see is legislation to stem the flow if malicious desinformation. Here’s a creative legislation proposal for rectifications of desinformation: the misrtepresented scientist/scientific institution will have the right to write/record its own rectification (of equal size/duration) for the media outlet by whom it was misrepresented. This media outlet has the obligation to publish/broadcast this rectification and daily anounce the upcoming rectification in front page ads or prime time hours a week in advance.
July 6 at 11:27am
Well, I agree it’s too bad about the tactics of the deniers but wrong about the skeptics – there are many of them who have not “come around”. Your reference to the “consensus opinion of the world’s climate scientists…” is your weakness as to exactly why we need more and better science since “opinion” is certainly not the same certainty as the law of gravity.
Right on the money with deniers.
Anyone who has been to Los Angeles, Ca. cannot deny that you are not supposed to see and taste air.
Thanks for sharing this, Robin!
July 5 at 5:04pm
Did I miss something, or why does the article does not state that we have almost 100% certainty, ie. many times enough to justify real actions. Also this article could make some more use of metaphors.
The formating of this post also has room for improvements.
With a true “sceptic” or low-information citizen who is genuinely concerned to understand climate-science status (as distinguished from deniers who are irretrievably polarized), I use this parallel:
The Theory of Climate Science has exactly the same certainty as the Theory of Gravity and the Theory of Electricity: we don’t know everything, but we know more than enough to know what we need to do.
When it’s cordial, this leads nicely into jokes like pulling out my phone and saying, “Wanna see an electron?,” and then, “Careful — don’t drop it! Although we don’t know for sure that the apple will ALWAYS hit Isaac Newton on the head…” This also applies nicely to the Theory of Evolution.
This article doesn’t emphasize enough the fact that many (most?) deniers are paid by corporate interests who don’t want their profits reduced by the need to cut COs emissions. Profit trumps truth every time!