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With Arctic Ice at Record Low, NSIDC Director Serreze says “we are on track to see an ice-free summer by 2030. It is an overall downward spiral.”

By Joe Romm  

"With Arctic Ice at Record Low, NSIDC Director Serreze says “we are on track to see an ice-free summer by 2030. It is an overall downward spiral.”"

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Ice extent (from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, 2011 in red).

We’re at a record low Arctic sea ice extent and volume:

The area of the Arctic ocean at least 15% covered in ice is … lower than the previous record low set in 2007 – according to satellite monitoring by the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado. In addition, new data from the University of Washington Polar Science Centre, shows that the thickness of Arctic ice this year is also the lowest on record.

In the past 10 days, the Arctic ocean has been losing as much as 150,000 square kilometres of sea a day, said Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC.

“The extent [of the ice cover] is going down, but it is also thinning. So a weather pattern that formerly would melt some ice, now gets rid of much more. There will be ups and downs, but we are on track to see an ice-free summer by 2030. It is an overall downward spiral.

The trend is painfully obvious to all who aren’t blinded by ideology.  Indeed, many, including me, believe we’ll see virtually ice-free summers within a decade.

What do the experts — and deniers — predict for the September sea ice extent minimum?  The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) has released its second Sea Ice Outlook report for July.  Just about all the cryo-scientists think the Arctic will easily beat last year’s minimum:

We received 16 responses for the Pan-Arctic report (Figure 1), with estimates in the range of 4.0 to 5.5 million square kilometers for the September arctic mean sea ice extent. The median value was 4.6 million square kilometers; the quartile values were 4.3 and 4.7 million square kilometers, a rather narrow range given the intrinsic uncertainty of the estimates on the order of 0.5 million square kilometers. It is important to note for context that all 2011 estimates are well below the 1979–2007 September climatological mean of 6.7 million square kilometers.

Credit: Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. (ARCUS).

It’s good that SEARCH has clearly posted the anti-science site WattsUpWithThat projection.  WUWT have been insisting for years that the ice has been getting thicker, when it has in fact been thinning, and last year they tried to rewrite history and claim that they hadn’t guessed wildly too high (see “Disinformers puzzled by reality, try to game prediction contest“).  Doesn’t look like they will be any closer to reality this year.

Neven’s Arctic Sea Ice Blog has more details on what’s going on up North.  He ends his post:

July 2011 could match or even beat July 2007.  Somebody call the UN. We are witnessing cryocide. ;-)

Related Post:

 

Below are earlier comments from the Facebook commenting system:

Leif Erik Knutsen

This summer Arctic ice extent is expected to reach a new low ~ 2 million sq. km below the 1979-2007 mean. That is a loss of about the area of Alaska and California combined. Recall that the Arctic controls the weather for the northern hemisphere. Look at the havoc an el Nino and la Nina can cause in the middle of the Pacific. A temperature change of a few degrees C and factor in an area the size AK & CA changing from ice to water a stone’s throw away to the north.

July 16 at 9:55am

Lemmon Columbus McMillan IV
I post this video for the comment Dr.James Lovelock makes starting at minute 6:10seconds: he states a total loss of sea-ice during the summer months will result in heating of the oceans equivalent to doubling the worlds C02 output suddenly. Is that over the course of a single summer? Will warming for every subsequent ice-less summer experience the same equivalency in heating? Jesus Christ,what the hell is going to happen to all that stored methane in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf?!! Someone smarter than me please comment immediately!

Lovelock further states in the interview this is a completely irreversible process. This is quite literally one of, if not ‘THE’ most chilling thing I’ve ever heard.

July 17 at 3:14pm

Lemmon Columbus McMillan IV

here is the video:http://www.youtube.c​om/watch?v=DhNws9rDXmI

July 17 at 3:14pm

Michael Arnim

NASA just announced that the sun is in a dormant state and we will have record cold for the next 30 years. google it.

July 18 at 11:41pm

Paul Coppock

So like a fool I googled it. Found nothing.

July 20 at 2:04am

Michael Arnim

http://www.spaceandscience​.net/id16.html… I got it for you since you didnt read the front page. It says it right there in black and white.

July 20 at 1:25pm

Leif Erik Knutsen

I will await confirming data. In the interim I am going with 98% of the world’s international climate scientists.

July 20 at 2:07pm

Michael Arnim

confirming data? Global warming has NO confirming data… It was proven over and over again to not only be manipulated figures but also unable to be repeated…which means it is false.

July 20 at 7:45pm

Leif Erik Knutsen

Quite the contrary, Michael. Conformation on numerous fronts is the very thing that gives the scientific community confidence in their opinions. For reasons only you can know, you prefer to remain ignorant of the evidence presented around you. It is your loss. I prefer to structure my life with the odds in my favor.

July 20 at 8:52pm

Michael Arnim

Confirmation is proven by repeating the same experiement and getting the same result. They have none of that in the global warming “science”.
Show me your “proof”. Put the links here… and be ready for me to disprove all of them with true science references.

July 20 at 11:19pm

Leif Erik Knutsen

The “experiment” is ongoing and humanity has one chance to get it right. By definition the only course of action is to weigh the evidence, such as the graph above, melting permafrost and ice caps, shifting migration patterns, changes in season onset and much more. If these things are evidence of climatic disruption, and I believe so, than the next step is to look at probable outcomes and evaluate possible mitigation policy. Since business as usual is not leading to any positive outcomes alternative solutions should be explored. It is of no use to just cry that you can disprove anything I say. It becomes a he said/she said argument. If I am wrong humanity ends up with a path to sustainability and less reliance of foreign oil. If you are wrong humanity faces dire consequences indeed.

July 20 at 11:56pm

Michael Arnim

We are starting the new little ice age.

http://climaterealists.com​/?id=7887

It is going to get colder now…ice will grow… the sun has seasons, just like Earth’s seasons. Hot…cold…hot…cold.

The debate on oil is totally separate from global warming. lets stay on topic. I’ll debate oil on a different thread. lol.

July 21 at 12:08am

John McCormick

As the white Arctic changes rapidly to dark will climate scientists work harder to understand tele-connections that could affect every global weather system from greater snowfall in the northern latitudes to possible impact on intensity and timing of Asian monsoons? Also, how will that affect the world’s grain basket in the Mid American heartland? Not likely. Much greater interest in placing bets and conjuring when the summer Arctic will be ice-free. Big questions are usually overshadowed by events.

July 16 at 9:42am

George Ennis

I have no doubt that climate scientists would like to do much more in the way of trying to better understand the earth’s climate and oceans particularly at the regional level. In addition they would like to to try to reduce the “uncertainty” in their models (keeping in mind that virtual certainty in science is frequently an aspirational goal).

However this requires that governments financially support research. Unfortunately under the GOP particularly we are seeing attempts to eliminate such funding. If that was not bad enough we are seeing efforts such as those by Kenneth T. Cuccinelli the Attorney General for Virginia to try and criminalize climate research as evidenced by his attempt to prosecute Michael Mann.

http://green.blogs.nytimes​.com/2011/03/12/hearing-is​-set-in-climate-fraud-case​/

Even if he loses his case before the Virginia Supreme Court, he wins in terms of his political objective which is to create a political environment poisonous to doing scientific research. What he is trying to do is intimidate climate scientists and universities by threatening to engage them in prolonged litigation which is costly and time consuming.

The second front that has been opened up against climatologists is to make frequent and frivolous requests for information under Freedom of Information laws. While on the surface this may be laudable it is the extent of the information being requested together with the redundancy (since much of the relevant information has already been released) which shows the political nature of the requests.

Finally, we are increasingly seen threats made against climatologists in an effort to shut them down.

All of this distracts from the time scientists have available to do their work.

The issue is not that the scientists need to work harder to understand what is happening but that voters must work harder to protect the ability of scientists to do their work.

Unfortunately, the GOP has a tight hold on much of the electorate and that is only likely to grow in 2012. The consequences for research and ultimately for the ability of the US and the world to address THE greatest security issue it faces in this century and possibly in centuries to come is not looking good. The deniers do not have to win for decades to come they just have to postpone any action being taken long enough that it simply immobilizes voters from taking any action once the situation becomes hopeless.

July 16 at 10:56am

John McCormick

Wish we were on a ‘ship of foods’. Typo. We’re on a ship of fools.

July 16 at 1:57pm

Susan Macina

Why doesn’t Al Gore talk about HAARP’s effect on the weather and ionsphere? Does he suppose that noone will research or look at the data scientist like Dr. Nick Begich and other scientist have documented on how the weather has been manipulated and how using HAARP can rip holes in the ionsphere? Carbon emmissions alone, I think not.

July 16 at 9:36am

George Ennis

Is this the Nick Begich you are referring to?

“Nick Begich is a conspiracy theorist who is the forerunner in the HAARP conspiracy theory. He appeared on the hit show Conspiracy Theory with Jesse Ventura. Also wrote the book Angels dont play this HAARP. He has an honorary doctorate of medicine from The Open International University for Complementary Medicines in Sri Lanka, which has been described as “a mail order degree”.

Source wikipedia

July 16 at 11:02am

Christopher S. Johnson

That sounds flaky. Almost every person I’ve run into who harps on HAARP is also into a slew of other unlikely conspiracies. I’d be more open to the idea if there were hard repeatable proof.

July 16 at 11:31am

George Ennis

@Christopher S. Johnson

Just to be clear I was not endorsing Susan Macina’s comment or the HAARP conspiracy theory or the work of Nick Begich the self professed “scientist”. The only part where I do not agree with you is that I would not describe the theory and the man as “flaky”, I am not that kind.

July 16 at 11:47am

Christopher S. Johnson

@George, yes, I was responding to Susan’s comment.

July 16 at 12:09pm

John Tucker

There is no research, credible science or observed phenomena showing such drastic effects from HAARP. At max output (which it is never used at) it can transmit at about 3.6 MW giving it a effective radiated power of about – 5.1 GW. [focused and optimized]. A good aurora involves about 800 gigawatts.

So far I hear they can make a slightly visible glowing donut directly over the facility, which might pique al gores interest and have measurable implications in advertising perhaps if they actually also made donuts.

July 16 at 4:51pm

Rob Honeycutt

Ah! But the “truth” is kept secret… //nudge, nudge, wink, wink.

July 16 at 10:35pm

Susan Macina

I see you can look up wikipedia but did you bother to look up HAARP at all. Did you look at the patents from Dr. Bernard Eastlund? Are you going to attack his degrees too? A physicist who received his B.S. in physics from MIT and a his Ph.D. in physics from Columbia University. Eastlund authored three patents (US Patents #4,686,605, #4,712,155, and #5,038,664) that led to the development of the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program and in those patents it clearly states one of the uses is weather modification. People used to believe the world was flat also doesnt mean they were right.

July 17 at 12:01am

John Tucker

I see the patents and think its interesting that continuously irradiating a portion of the upper “ionosphere” will make it get more ionicy and/or hot. Who’d thought.

But just because I held the patent for the tea kettle doesn’t mean I intend to boil away lake superior.

Obvioulsy as we are still constructing a physical intercept system and not thousands of more higher energy HAARPs the research has not proved a practical application.

July 17 at 12:52am

Jeffrey Davis

HAARPniks: one particular band of electromagnetism can do all that but the bazillion other bands don’t do spit.

Gotcha.

July 17 at 10:33am

Susan Macina

Also what role does UN Agenda 21 play in the climate change debate.

July 23 at 7:14pm

Lou Grinzo

2030? Bull. It will be a freaking miracle if it lasts that long.

Head over to Neven’s site, as Joe suggests, but in particular see the “waterfall graph” in this post (http://neven1.typepad.com/​blog/2011/05/piomas-april-​2011.html). It projects September’s ice hitting zero in 2016.

July 16 at 8:08pm

Paul Magnus

Note the big melt in 2006. A year after the hot 2005. Interesting to see this year. ALso 2011 is looking pretty hot itself so we many see some spectacular melt before 2015.

Year after extreme events are common hurricane intensity tends up 12-18mth after a hot year.

July 16 at 9:09pm

Rob Honeycutt

I agree, Lou. I think Serreze is being extremely optimistic in his statement. Of course, if the Republicans manage to collapse the world economy Serreze might be right. Barring that I’m guessing it’s going to be closer to 2020.

July 16 at 10:32pm

Charles Scott

Here’s a link to the SEARCH file on the WUWT estimates. Note the last line: http://www.arcus.org/files​/search/sea-ice-outlook/20​11/07/pdf/pan-arctic/wuwt_​panarctic_july.pdf.

July 16 at 1:18pm

Will Greene

In my opinion we are reaching the point where even mentioning WUWT hurts the cause. They definitely do not deserve to be mentioned in a post that quotes the director of the NSIDC. Why give them that?

July 17 at 12:32am

Michael Arnim

NASA Data Confirms Solar Hibernation and Climate Change to Cold Era.
www.spaceandscience.net
The Space and Science Research Center (SSRC) announces today that the most recent data from NASA describing the unusual behavior of the Sun validates a nearly four year long quest by SSRC Director John L. Casey to convince the US government, the media, and the public that we are heading into a new cold climate era with 20 to 30 years of record setting cold weather.

July 17 at 11:55pm

Larry Arnim

Al Gore is an idiot and so are his crew… I think I will go with NASA

July 18 at 4:47am

George Ennis

Obviously you are trying to engage in misdirection here. You fully well know that NASA itself has made no such statements regarding any of the datait has collected. To the contrary it’s own website makes clear that AGW is real and is happening now.

As for the SSRC you also know they have zero peer reviewed papers. Also the 2 staff they do seem to trumpet i.e. Dr. Boris Komitov, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Astronomy and
Dr. Ernest Njau, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania are not recognized climatologists.

But then you already knew that since you decided to just spew forth the same nonsense that most climate change deniers do.

July 18 at 8:30am

Larry Arnim

Poor George… I feel bad for you in our obvious state of delusion.

Nobody is denying that the climate is changing. WE are just not among the vein, narcissistic group that believes falsely that the change is due to human actions. The climate is and always has been changing and it will continue to change.

Think about it man… Have you ever heard of the ice ages? There have been several. This would indicate that leading up to those ice ages that the climate changed and cooled off considerably right? Now I am sure you would agree that we are not now in an ice age right? This means that since the last ice age the earth has warmed back up. Guess what George… There is another ice age coming. That means that we will cool again and nothing humans can do will effect this in any way other that our adaptation to the change of temp that will allow us to survive.

Grow up man. Think with your own mind instead of following fools who are just trying to make a buck… I have faith that you can do it!

July 18 at 8:39am

George Ennis

Yes Larry I am in a state of delusion along with the 98% of published climatologists and almost every major scientific body throughout the world. You prefer to go with the SSRC and one non-peer reviewed study by some unknown climatologists. For myself I would rather go with an organization like NASA which has clearly stated the reality of AGW.

July 18 at 8:48am

Michael Arnim

Sorry George but if you took a moment to look at the LINK PROVIDED… you would see NASA’s response. It is breaking news. GOOGLE IT if you dont want to use my link. Point is…you can stick your head in the sand and claim global destruction all you want…doesnt make it true. Science is funny like that. Amazing what happens when you have honest science…

July 18 at 11:38pm

Larry Arnim

98% eh? I have told you a million times to stop exaggerating.

July 19 at 10:43am

Michael Arnim

98% huh? I guess the 13,000 scientists with science degrees… disagree with you. You know, the ones that signed the petition that said that global warming was total BUNK?

July 20 at 12:54am

Paul Coppock

There is nothing whatsoever about NASA on the SSRC page you link to.

July 20 at 2:15am

Michael Arnim

IT IS ON THE FRONT PAGE…sheesh.

IMPORTANT NEW PRESS RELEASE:

SSRC PR 5-2011: Monday, June 6, 2011. ” Climate Change Book Cold Sun Predicting Dangerous Cold Climate, Receives Worldwide Praise.” The Space and Science Research Corporation (SSRC) announces today the publication of a compelling new book on climate change. Cold Sun, authored by SSRC President John L. Casey has been three years in the making and has already achieved worldwide acclaim from scientists and other experts. (See Press Release page)

Go to press release page…look up the press release. I’ll do it for you.

http://www.spaceandscience​.net/id16.html

July 20 at 1:24pm

Rodney Glasspoole Don’t worry. aIt just gives us another piece of territory to fight over for the resources.

July 16 at 11:44am

Paul Magnus

un? call obama…

July 16 at 12:55pm

 

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