With solar module prices falling closer to the $1 a watt threshold, many manufacturers are struggling to keep their heads above water. But project developers are doing quite swimmingly.
The continued decreases in panel prices are causing a boom in commercial-scale development throughout the U.S. According to analysis from Solarbuzz, the non-residential project pipeline has increased from 17,000 MW to 24,000 MW in just two months. Those figures include projects in all stages of development, so it doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll get built. But activity is increasing at an very rapid rate.
According to a 2010 analysis from GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association, the average total installed cost of solar systems in the U.S. fell 20%, due largely to the increasing size of projects and the reductions in module and hardware prices.
China continues its dominance in the global solar PV manufacturing sector. But the two leading suppliers to these non-residential projects are actually American companies — First Solar and SunPower. (However, those companies have moved much of their production to Asia.) The Chinese manufacturer Suntech is the third-largest supplier to these projects.
Even though many of the modules are being sourced from outside the country, these domestic installations provide an enormous value to local economies. According to a recent trade balance study from GTM Research, around 73% of the total economic value of a solar system stays in the U.S.
Despite the flurry of large-scale project activity in America, the country only represents 5% of the global market. But SolarBuzz expects total market activity to double this year, matching last year’s 102% growth and possibly giving the U.S. a 12% share of the market by 2015.
That will depend on the stability of incentives, however. If the Treasury Grant Program is not extended, the industry will have to rely on a modest amount of tax equity to finance projects — possibly dropping the number of installations in 2013.
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AWESOME! It really is understandable that fossil-fuel oligarchs attach PV. It is clear now that they will lose, and it is just a question of time. Watch the market in Texas in particular, where many coal and natural gas power plants are running out of cooling water, and MUST shut down, with no relief in sight, just exactly when they are needed the most. This is yet another reason and perhaps the ultimate to massively develop PV in our soon-to-be permanent dustbowl southwest. This message cannot be repeated too much, spread the word, make it viral, this is the green meme of the year!
Here is some data on the water crisis in Texas today:
(cfs stands for cubic feet per second). Thanks Joan for this comment I copied from a different CP thread.
Joan Savage says:
September 12, 2011 at 12:18 am
Some stream conditions in Texas
0.00 cfs flow in the Colorado River near Ballinger TX
0.00 cfs flow in Nueces Rv nr Tilden, TX
62 cfs Rio Grande River near Big Bend National Park, TX
We’re clearly small scale, but couldn’t resist those falling prices and added 4.88 kW to our already 2.55 solar array. Installed just last week. Good to know that even if not manufactured in the US, the majority of the $ stays here.
Another good solar article. Thanks Stephen.
One hopeful stat that SolarBuzz highlights in their recent reports is the rapid rise of utility driven solar PV. This is the fastest growing energy segment in the world. USA has seen a 10-fold increase in utility projects greater than 10MW. Utility PV now accounts for well over half of grid-tie PV in USA and rising fast.
The driver of this is primarily states requiring “Renewable Portfolio Standards”. Marc Jaccard, one of the forces behind BC’s 100%(!) Renewable Portfolio Standard says that RPS is an under-appreciated tool in the climate toolkit. While carbon prices can generate high-profile resistance, RPS often is uncontroversial for the vast majority of the voting public. In USA we see RPS driving solar build-out far more effectively and sooner than carbon pricing.
I’d like to see utilities promote and help finance rooftop PV systems. If electric companies were entitled to the RPS credit of a rooftop system that they financed, that might happen. This would be good because it wouldn’t use any additional land, and would avoid the need to add or upgrade transmission lines.
I live in Tucson and the local utility does provide a $2/watt incentive for rooftop systems. That incentive was $3/watt last year when I installed my system. The incentive will go down to $1.50/watt next year. Phoenix has a $1.00/watt incentive but may reduce it soon. The trend is lowering incentives as the price of systems falls, so the economics for the homeowner isn’t getting better(maybe even worse). The incentives come from a pool of money for renewable energy installs collected from ratepayers. The homeowner incentive is considered taxable income by the IRS.
Stephen,
Some good news on DOE hydro too.
http://www.elp.com/index/display/article-display/0761469267/articles/electric-light-power/renewable-energy/hydro/2011/09/DOE_funds_16_projects_to_advance_hydropower_technology.html#.TmkEFgcgxwM.twitter%20via%20@AddThis
As module prices near the $1/Watt point, the next target/opportunity becomes installation costs.
Where is the entrepreneur/architect/builder to eliminate those costs?
Make the panels into roofing material that any architect can specify and any builder can install and that any roofer can repair or replace.
And please give us consumers an easy option for using this clean, cheap DC power directly for our DC electronics and DC LED lights. Call it “Plug B”. All that’s needed is a standard voltage and connectors.
PV module costs are about $1.50/Watt, but the quote I recently got from my local installer is $6.50/Watt.
That huge difference is the opportunity: reduce the installation and connection costs. Better yet, eliminate those costs.
When the total, installed cost of PV drops to the current module cost of $1.50/Watt, it becomes the low-cost source of electricity, especially for homes (and especially for poor families for whom the first cell phone and an LED light have high marginal value.)
BTW, when I say “poor families” above, I mean the poorest 3 or 4 billion, for whom the marginal value of their first handful of KWH is huge.
A small PV panel plus battery costs less than connecting to the grid. That has huge economic implications for those currently without electricity.
Excellent comments.