A penny for your cyberthoughts. Or post links to interesting weekend news/links. Or link to some jokes and cartoons — can’t get enough of those in these new Dark Ages!
You wrote a lot this week on green jobs. If we want to get serious about green jobs, I think we need to look beyond wind and solar to infrastructure improvements that will save energy and create non-exportable, long-term employment:
Incentives to develop wind, or solar, or geothermal energy are all very well and good, but it is difficult to pick an industry and make it successful, especially if an important part of your motivation is to create jobs. Even successful industries may not create very many jobs, and there is nothing to stop the successful, once established, from taking those jobs elsewhere.
What we can and should do is radically upgrade our national infrastructure and our management of public lands. Those tasks cannot be left to the private sector. The private sector cannot set a new standard for rail lines, cannot protect federal lands from wildfires, cannot improve disaster response capabilities. True, a hefty carbon tax would advance many of these goals, including weatherization. But not only are the politics of such a tax difficult right now, but it would fail to provide the short-term stimulus and job creation which our economy needs.
I would agree. Frankly, I’m starting to cringe at the term “green jobs”. Perhaps this reflects Republican success in taking out yet another word (like “climate change”, “stimulus”, …) to mean something bad, polarizing, or ideological. But more fundamentally, in agreement with Vinod Khosla, all jobs in the future should be “green jobs”. There are no “green jobs”. They are all “mainstream jobs”. Every job should be concerned about sustainability and efficiency.
As for infrastructure, a job is a job, be it public or private. Part of the today’s unemployment is a mismatch between job openings and skills. Infrastructure and energy efficiency is a good way to employ those in construction, now currently sitting on the side lines due to the housing bubble. And it’s work that is needed given the C’s and D’s given by the American Society of Civil Engineers. It’s work that will have to be done anyway.
I think it worth posting this again – Ecocide a new crime against humanity this mock trial could soon be a reality. Post it to the deniers and polluters and let them know we look forward to seeing them in the dock.
A repost from Jeff Huggins. I think it is an excellent point worthy of further study, would love to hear others opinion.
Hate to Say It, But …
My goodness, if people such as Tom Friedman, Paul Krugman, Andy Revkin, and (periodically) the folks who write editorials at The New York Times care so deeply about climate change, and understand it to be the vitally important and urgent issue that it is, why in Hell (the point calls for this bluntness; sorry) is the actual coverage of climate change in The New York Times so dismal, insufficient, and not nearly up to the task? I mean, why? I really mean it: WHY??
As much as I deeply respect Krugman, and perhaps Friedman to a lesser degree, and Revkin to a still-lesser degree, nevertheless, it seems that they’re willing to write about climate change and do just about anything EXCEPT for the one thing that could have the greatest impact by far, if they did it: insist (to Times leadership) that the Times take its coverage of climate change to an entirely new level of focus, gravity, clarity, vigor, energy, coherence, courage, excellence, frequency, and so forth. But this is the one thing that Krugman, Friedman, Revkin, and the others don’t seem to be doing or want to do. And indeed it’s the one thing that would take real courage, that would actually put something on the line.
I know of a Harvard B-School professor who is a long-standing member of ExxonMobil’s Board of Directors. He’s also the author of books such as ‘True North’, about leadership and integrity in business. Oh my gosh, already that seems to demonstrate great inconsistency, at least if you ask me. In any case, long ago I corresponded with him once or twice. I don’t know his latest thinking, but I recently heard from a co-author of his that he probably believes that it’s better to be ON the Board, in order to influence it positively (presumably? who knows?), than to resign because of ExxonMobil’s irresponsibility with respect to climate change, and then make that resignation a signal that could actually have some influence on matters. But “I can’t rock the boat too much; it’s better to belong” — is the idea. (not a quote or even a paraphrase, but representative of the idea that many people seem to adopt)
What’s my point? It seems to me that everyone wants to (or claims to want to) write about, or act up about, climate change in ways that suit their professions, fulfill their jobs, make money, and appeal to their constituents. That’s EASY. Everyone wants the other guy or the other guy’s company to change. Most likely Friedman and Krugman think that ExxonMobil should change. But do they think that The New York Times should change? Do they think that The Times’ coverage of climate change could and should be light-years better than it is? Well if they do, it’s not showing.
At this point, I’m just about more fed-up with the soft cheerleaders of the climate change cause, whose own institutions are actually part of the problem or enabling it, than I am with the usual suspects who are at least “obvious” in their irresponsibility. It’s true: Rex Tillerson never promised me, or us, that he’d be anything other than Rex Tillerson, Chairman of ExxonMobil. But President Obama did make promises to me, and to us, and he’s not fulfilling them. That makes me deeply frustrated. And it doesn’t help much that Tom Friedman says this or that but that he (apparently) hasn’t done much to actually get The Times itself to provide the coverage of climate change that they ought to provide. (Nor does his long-ago bumbling of the science, on TV — wasn’t that Friedman? — give me much faith that he actually knows what he’s talking about before he writes about it. But that was long ago. I’ll give him some leeway if he can get The Times to get its act together.)
Anyhow, that’s my two cents worth for today.
Be Well,
lemmonmc says:
October 8, 2011 at 10:24 am
Since neither (Krugman nor Friedman) have nothing to do with the NYT news/science reporting, can’t they still raise Mr. Huggins point in print, editorials, or television-radio-internet-interviews, let alone speak directly with those dpts. about this? Can’t they use their prestige to vector a spotlight on this particular aspect of climate change politics and or journalism? I Think Mr.Huggins is hitting on a really deep and serious problem that’s actually within the climate change ‘believer’ crowd. Personally I think this deserves it’s own article and thank you Mr.Huggins for bringing it up.
I think panic is a great idea, its time. There is a significant risk that billions of people could perish prematurely (2,000,000,000 or more) in the next 90 years under the business as usual or slightly worse scenarios. The concept that “we will be protected in the US of A” is a dangerous delusion, IMO. Continuing to live your life as if nothing was pending is also dangerous.
Panic as an out-of-control emotional spasm is probably not useful. Panic that motivates you towards decisive action to help to head off imminent disaster would be the wise choice. What would you do if your actions could help to prevent the premature deaths of billions, including people you know?
Nick Toberg, part of a team of scientists from Cambridge trying to find out why Arctic sea ice is melting so fast, conducts survey work on ice floe 500 miles (800 km) from the North Pole September 3, 2011.
Photo: Reuters/Stuart McDill
As polar bears stalked their ship, scientists drilled into the Arctic sea ice this week to try and figure out why it’s disappearing so fast.
The disintegrating ice floes — each half the size of a football field — floated among narrow lanes of open water next to the Arctic Sunrise, the Greenpeace ice breaker likely to be the most northerly ship in the world, according to ice pilot Arne Sorensen.
Nearby, in a monochrome landscape between the Norwegian island of Svalbard and the North Pole, a large cub patted and licked a lollipop-shaped part of laser scanner as it passed. Cracks several meters wide appeared in seconds beneath the scientists’ feet, prompting a hasty retreat. http://planetark.org/wen/63201
The story of the century and the media ignores it.
Russian, U.S. scientists set to study methane release in Arctic
01:32 02/09/2011
VLADIVOSTOK, September 2 (RIA Novosti
A group of Russian and U.S. scientists will leave the port of Vladivostok on Friday on board a Russian research ship to study methane emissions in the eastern part of the Arctic.
“This expedition was organized on a short notice by the Russian Fund of Fundamental Research and the U.S. National Science Foundation following the discovery of a dramatic increase in the leakage of methane gas from the seabed in the eastern part of the Arctic http://en.rian.ru/science/20110902/166364635.html
Thanks. The link I gave seemed to be an interim report on what they were finding. It said they were about halfway through the expedition so we should know more around the end of the month.
Here’s a suggestion from the John George Democratic Club in Oakland–post a warning on all gas pumps reading, “WARNING: Burning gasoline increases the risk of serious climate change. The City of _______ urges you to economize on the use of gas and seek alternatives such as public transit, bicycles, and electric cars.”
I’d also like to call your attention to this post of mine–”Anyone for Bridge?”–showing the odds that global warming is not real.
I’ve encountered the argument that, (A) should summer sea ice disappear in the Arctic in a few years, that would mark the beginning of a catastrophic methane release. Therefore, this line of reasoning goes, we must (B) immediately deploy some kind of geoengineering (cloud whitening or stratospheric sulfates) to prevent the onset of a sea-ice free Arctic.
So far as I can tell, no serious researcher is making claim (A) – I’m interested in any opinions. As regards strategy (B): were we able to detect the threat of imminent abrupt methane destabilization, how compelling is the “emergency basis” argument for SRM?
The us navy research indicates that it will be gone effectively by around 2016. All plot data is pointing to this. Search this blog for links.
There is no way that humans can intervene on any meaningfully way to avert this. So if indeed this does trigger more methane venting it will be.
We need to be planing for climate chaos now. We are going to have at least a 2.5c rise and that is catastrophic. Sea levels were 20ft higher when it was last this temp.
The German military is starting to plan for this. They recently released an amazing report on this and peak oil…..
The Peak Oil Crisis: The German Army Report http://www.postcarbon.org
In the last five or six years at least 20 major studies have been published by governmental and non-governmental organizations that either deal with or touch upon the possibility of severe energy shortages developing in the near future. Studies do
Clean-energy credits tarnished
WikiLeaks reveals that most Indian claims are ineligible.
As the world gears up for the next round of United Nations climate-change negotiations in Durban, South Africa, in November, evidence has emerged that a cornerstone of the existing global climate agreement, the international greenhouse-gas emissions-trading system, is seriously flawed.
Critics have long questioned the usefulness of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which was established under the Kyoto Protocol. It allows rich countries to offset some of their carbon emissions by investing in climate-friendly projects, such as hydroelectric power and wind farms, in developing countries. Verified projects earn certified emission reductions (CERs) — carbon credits that can be bought and sold, and count towards meeting rich nations’ carbon-reduction targets.
But a diplomatic cable published last month by the WikiLeaks website reveals that most of the CDM projects in India should not have been certified because they did not reduce emissions beyond those that would have been achieved without foreign investment. Indian officials have apparently known about the problem for at least two years. http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110927/full/477517a.html
So far, the newly available image libraries of the Arctic and Antarctic have seen only modest use from scientists. “One of our biggest challenges is to educate the science community about the existence of our programme,” says Bruce Molnia, executive director of the Civil Applications Committee at the USGS in Reston, Virginia, which oversees civilian use of classified image data. And the members of MEDEA, who have access to the full array of classified data, are, for now at least, using it to address policy questions raised by government agencies — such as what national security risks are posed by climate change — rather than conducting fundamental research of their own choosing. http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110921/full/477388a.html
ScienceDaily (Oct. 6, 2011) — In the central Arctic the proportion of old, thick sea ice has declined significantly. Instead, the ice cover now largely consists of thin, one-year-old floes. This is one of the results that scientists of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association brought back from the 26th Arctic expedition of the research vessel Polarstern.
<a href=http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/10/111006102617.htm<Young and Thin Instead of Old and Bulky: Researchers Report On Changes in Arctic Sea Ice After Return of Research Vessel Polarstern
There are two big problems with 1st-year sea ice: First is that it is salty — so it melts at -1.7 C instead of 0 C. Second, it’s albedo is 0.6 compared to 0.8 for multi-year sea ice.
So even though 1st year sea ice can be up to 2 m thick, it melts out much more readily during Summer. There is no recovery until 5+ MY sea ice again dominates the Central Arctic Basin.
This will not happen under a ‘business-as-usual’ emissions scenario.
Reuters 10/7/11:
Texas so far has suffered more than $5 billion in agricultural losses, and wildfires have scorched millions of acres as the state suffers its longest dry period on record.
So much ag loss – I wonder if $5b is the farmers loss. I read that the farmer gets about $0.07 per dollar of retail food price. So this $5b could equal $71b retail food loss. Considering the losses in China, Russia last year, Australia – I can’t help think food will be a bigger problem sooner than we think.
Richard, Right you are. Food will be a big problem, but probably not significantly for a decade or more. Some countries will have production increases due to more rain, for example, and they will fill in the shortages.
But over the decades, there will be fewer and fewer to do this filling in as temperatures rise worldwide.
We need badly to shift now from trying to reduce CO2 emissions since Big Coal and Big Oil are just too powerful. Look at what has happened to all international conferences to limit CO2 – Zero progress.
We ought to shift gears now to studies on how to limit sunlight hitting earth as a way to reduce temperatures. I am waiting for Climate Progress to start making that shift as a leader in thinking about climate change.
So I want to take off in two directions from here. The first is on the politicization of climate. Representative Ralph Hall announced that the Science, Space, and Technology Committee will start an investigation into NOAA and whether or not NOAA is forming an “unauthorized” climate service. This is consistent with: 1) A statement from the American Association for the Advancement of Science that the political attack on climate researchers is, effectively, impeding the scientific process and stalling the advancement of science. (Which the readers of my blogs will know is the goal of the political arguments, hence, a successful strategy.) And 2) Forms a thread back to this entry in 2007, and, well, much longer. (Oreskes video: Merchants of Doubt) This has evolved to the point that Scott Mandia has started a Climate Science Legal Defense Fund to which you are welcome to contribute. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/comment.html?entrynum=206#commenttop
Heatwaves and Blizzards — Which is the Best Evidence for Global Warming?
But wait a minute, climate sceptics will argue. What about the cold winters of recent years? Well, here’s where the story gets interesting, and where we discover the value of the scientific method as opposed to our very human ‘gut feelings’, everyday experiences and short memories. This may seem difficult to believe, but according to a recent paper published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters (GRL), the last two winters’ warm extremes were more “severe” than their cold snaps.
In winter everyone notices a blizzard – if your car is buried in snow, the highways are in chaos, and no-one can get to work, this creates a sense of crisis and lasting memories. Hence the so-called ‘snowmaggedon’ events in 2010, which were used by some conservatives as evidence against the reality of global warming.
This stands to reason, of course – if the world is getting warmer, why is it snowing so much in winter? The answer lies in what we don’t notice – those mild days in winter when no snow lies, and the weather feels strangely springlike, even in January and February. According to the GRL paper, when taken in the context of the last 63 northern hemisphere winters, those of 2009-10 and 2010-11 were more unusual for their warmth than for their cold. For cold extremes, they ranked 21st and 34th respectively, whilst for warm ‘snaps’ they came in at 12th and 4th. http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2011/10/07/heatwaves-and-blizzards-which-is-the-best-evidence-for-global-warming/
Bipartisan Policy Center is looking at a “Plan B” that assumes mitigation of CO2 fails (a very reasonable assumption given evidence).
This Center is in Washington and was initiated by two Senators from each party.
This is excellent news because it assesses our future realistically instead of just more hoping and praying that mankind becomes reasonable about burning of fossil fuel in particular. We have hoped and prayed and cajoled and mocked until we are blue in the face. It is not working, folks. Time for a new strategy.
The Center is talking about ways to reduce sunlight hitting earth which is a way to reduce warming. It is a highly problematic thing to do and there is valid concern about the ill effects of such tinkering with our atmosphere by doing things like pumping aerosols into it.
But we are finally moving ahead it seems in our thinking. This is wonderful news. Next and soon we need another plan – Plan C. It will start to think about what we do if both Plans A and B fail. How can we protect the maximum number from chaos resulting from disappearance of all food and water supplies? Will parts of earth be habitable, if so, where are these places, and how can they be secured.
Assuming the Center gets into their Plan B studies, this is fantastic news and is a real ray of hope. It is a giant step towards realism.
I should have said – four Senators, two from each Party initiated this Center. The Center works on other issues of high importance in addition to climate.
“…., head of the Institute of oil and gas of the Russian academy of sciences Anatoly Dmitriyevsky says:
“Methane outburst in the process of natural failure of hydrates is a natural phenomenon. The nature regulates such processes for many years. So that is a common thing and it does not imply any disaster.”"
But she still belongs to the conservative party, the same party in power Alberta for the past 40 years. Not sure if this will change things in the tar sands.
2- I went to Haida Gwaii this summer, off the coast of British Columbia. Signs everywhere to say they do not want the Enbridge Gateway pipeline to cross BC, and no tankers off the coast. No tankers, no problem plenty of bumper stickers say. Check the August edition of National Geographic.
3- I also went to Jasper National Park. I didn’t take the snow coach onto the Columbia Icefields, but I did walk onto the toe of the glacier – the toe has been roped off because it’s in danger of collapsing. And there may be only a decade left for the snow coaches to take tourists far onto the icefield. The lateral moraine on which the snowcoach travels to get there is collapsing. Global warming is already affecting tourism in the north.
Yesterday’s USA TODAY has a front page article headlined “Taste ths: Climate change may redraw wine regions” by Elizabeth Weise. Ok article, but failed to mention the very fine wines from grapes grown here in eastern Washington state.
Insurance Against the Future
green.blogs.nytimes.com
As climate change alters weather patterns across the world, the insurance industry is slowly recognizing the threat that it poses to profitability. climate portals
climate change throws a wrench in the works and is already wreaking havoc on balance sheets and shareholder value, according to Sharlene Leurig of the nonprofit research group Ceres. Ms. Leurig was the lead author of a report released last month that examined how the insurance industry is responding.
In addition to presenting the possibility of more and larger payouts because of harsher weather, climate change may also clip one of the industry’s major revenue streams.
The insurance industry collectively manages $23 trillion in global investments, and according to the wealth management firm Mercer Advisors, nearly 10 percent of those assets could be seriously compromised by climate change.
The Ceres report notes that liability issues present a third source of threat to the insurance industry. Mr. Kovacs said that a serious academic debate was under way over just how liable insurance companies are in the climate change context.
Let’s face it, there’s a 4th risk not mentioned…. Investors won’t be investing in the industry. I would be selling all my shares in this sector and i don’t think pension funds will be investing here also.
That’s the scenario hedge fund manager and catastrophe bond pioneer John Seo had in mind when he predicted in the current issue of Foreign Policy that “a decade and a half from now, a single hurricane or earthquake will come with a potential price tag of $1 trillion or more. Imagine a world in which economic damage equivalent to that caused by a major war or the detonation of a midsized nuclear weapon in a major city could materialize with a warning of only a few days.”
If that’s the case, just how long until large chunks of America’s coastline become virtually uninsurable, starting with Lower Manhattan? Some would say this is a good thing, a perfect example of markets appropriately pricing risk and (dis-)incentivizing people accordingly. One of them is Matthew Kahn, an economist at UCLA and the author of Climatopolis: How Our Cities Will Thrive in the Hotter Future.
“A big issue in social sciences right now is how people process low probability events,” he says. “Climate change raises the probability of a catastrophic storm from one in ten thousand to one in a thousand. The insurance companies could be our leading indicator of this change. We have to allow them to “price gouge,” because are they gouging, or are they pricing new risk?”
The pivotal aspect of the loss of insurance cover – which is clearly in the pipeline – is that immobile physical assets will suddenly lose their collateral value as backing for past loans.
That is, both the holders of the loans – banks and finance houses etc – and the holders of the assets – from families to businesses to corporations – will suddenly find a massive and irretrievable black hole in their balance sheets.
Yet more Weimar dollars cannot resolve the issue, as it requires the annual outgoing of an unnaffordable sum to meet rational insurance premiums. Such a policy would collapse the dollar on world markets.
The delusion that climatic destabilization will affect major foreign governments more than the US is being tested to destruction.
The business of cooling the planet – Fortune Tech
tech.fortune.cnn.com
Climate scientists and their billionaire backers, like Bill Gates, are trying to turn down the global thermostat - and make money doing it. By Marc Gunther, contributor FORTUNE — One of the cool things about being Bill Gates is that if you are curious about something, you can find smart peopl…
Of course it is about jobs, about capitalism, about climate change, about drone-fought assassinations.
The root of it all is ASYMMETRY.
Our economy is asymmetrical, when one percent (is that pop, mom, and kids?) own more than half of the wealth of their country.
All the changes the Republican governors are making in our State laws are extremely asymmetrical.
Our marriage with Israel is asymmetrical, thinking 7 million Israelis on a bit of land is our basic base in the Muslim world is not only ridiculous but asymmetrical.
All the wars we are fighting are asymmetrical, fighting terrorists, or insurgents, who can be anyone and everyone, without even a fraction of the resources we have.
The destruction of rain forests in Brazil, Borneo, elsewhere is asymmetrical in the extreme.
The horrors of the Rep of Congo is asymmetrical where corporations and countries fight for rare earth resources by killing a million people.
The planetary ecology has become asymmetrical — and ecologies cannot be. One species lethally interfering in the planetary ecology by not only causing global warming but perhaps more important continuing to cause a steep decline in biodiversity is the essence of asymetry.
All the uprisings that are happening literally all over the world (not reported in the global north) are about protesting the enormous asymmetry — expressing an overwhelming need to get more symmetry..
Asymmetry that is totally unsustainable.
Seems that many industries are becoming more exclusive. I doubt that they want to be more exclusive it just seems to happen that way.
Some say there is no time to loose in becoming more self reliant and also learning that others are also heading that way.
My hydroponics unit is still having plant growth and I
Think it is a good investment to have PVC hydroponics.
Enjoy
Raul
Also, PVC hydroponics could easily fit into landscaping projects, as the water is only kept in the pipe and doesn’t need watering even weekly. The fertilizer application is by the small amounts not by the pound, so to have city landscaping it might be the smart way to conserve resources. Course it could also work well in the county areas. New age gardening?
The flooding event in Thailand reminds me of Australia last winter. A huge sheet of water crossing the landscape.
” The floods have ravaged vast areas of Asia’s food bowl, threatening to drive up food prices. ”
I saw a trade story a couple of weeks ago, about the BNSF Rail Road losses this year …..
$ 350,000,000.00 .
The bill for the Thai Floods is rising fast -
” The Rojana estate in Ayutthaya province, run by Rojana Industrial Park Pcl, was flooded after a wall of sandbags failed to hold back water overnight.
But taken together, the separate moves — led by House Republicans — add up to a stunning campaign against governmental regulatory authority that is now surprisingly close to succeeding.
In just the year since the GOP took control of the House, there have been at least 159 votes held against environmental protections — including 83 targeting the Environmental Protection Agency — on the House floor alone, according to a list compiled by Democrats on the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
“Republicans have made an assault on all environmental issues,” said Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), the top Democrat on the committee. “This is, without doubt, the most anti-environmental Congress in history.”
I just got via some links from here to something written by one James Delingpole, but probably similar things could be said about other blogs and bloggers. It made me think there is an underestimated and underreported reason for denialism:
Sheer hatred of liberals/”lefties”/”tree-huggers” and/or the almost boundless joy of annoying/provoking/harressing/bashing/teasing/bullying/enraging them, just for the fun of it.
I suspect for some, facts and reason, decency etc. and even financial interest hardly matter compared to the joy of seeing liberals suffer. Which seems easy to accomplish, because people who DO care about something are easy to hurt.
It reminds me of someone I know who is exactly the kind of person that would on occasion use his considerable intelligence and argumentative skill just to intellectually “outmaneuver” someone and exploit somebody’s passion on an issue to make him suffer.
Making the target lose composure seems both entertaining and creating a feeling of intellectual superiority, regardless of actual correctness of arguments or anything like that.
You know that cartoon at the top of this thread? Eventually, sea levels rose above the guy’s head and he drowned. Appearing at the Pearly Gates, he complained “Lord, why didn’t you SAVE me??”
God replied, “Buddy, I sent you Hansen, Romm, and Cook…. what more do ya want?”
Contentious debates about “peak oil” aside, imagining how the world looks post oil is increasingly easy as alternatives to fossil fuel develop rapidly.
Unusually heavy monsoon rains inundated southern Pakistan in the summer of 2011, submerging fields and forcing residents from their homes. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs this week reported that 5.44 million people had been affected, 1.8 million residents had been displaced, and 2.1 million acres of cropland had been damaged.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured these images of southern Pakistan on October 6, 2011 (top), and October 7, 2009 (bottom). Both images use a combination of visible and infrared light to better distinguish between water and land. Water ranges from electric blue to navy. Vegetation is green. Bare ground is pink-beige. Clouds are pale blue-green http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/environment/flood/world-from-space-severe-flooding-in-pakistan/41146.html
The Greeks often invoked idiosyncratic explanations of natural phenomena by reference to the will of anthropomorphic gods and heroes. Thales, however, aimed to explain natural phenomena via a rational explanation that referenced natural processes themselves. For example, Thales attempted to explain earthquakes by hypothesizing that the Earth floats on water, and that earthquakes occur when the Earth is rocked by waves, rather than assuming that earthquakes were the result of supernatural processes. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thales
According to Herodotus (1.74):
“ In the sixth year a battle took place in which it happened, when the fight had begun, that suddenly the day became night. And this change of the day Thales the Milesian had foretold to the Ionians laying down as a limit this very year in which the change took place. The Lydians however and the Medes, when they saw that it had become night instead of day, ceased from their fighting and were much more eager both of them that peace should be made between them. ”
According to NASA, the eclipse peaked over the Atlantic Ocean at 37.9°N 46.2°W and the umbral path reached south-western Anatolia in the evening hours, and the Halys River is just within the error margin for delta-T provided. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Halys_(585_BCE)
So what is the analogous Thales Moment in climate change messaging?
Just wanted to pass on a great new source of information for those interested in translated the general policy goal of avoding dangerous climate change into cumulative carbon quotas (or lack thereof1), atmospheric GHG concentrations, and the necessary annual/periodic reductions necessary to meet the concentration and mass-based limits. Its
The Report is by the Australian Meteorology Bureau and is entitled “Global climate goals for temperature, concentrations,
emissions and cumulative emissions” dated September 2011.
I heard someone say recently (possible in a YouTube video) that the Kramer Junction solar power plant, having paid off all its loans, is currently operating at a cost of about 3 cents per kilowatt-hour. I cannot find any evidence or verification of this information, and don’t want to use it without a source. If I could verify this, I would have one more good bit of evidence for my belief that CSP can deliver electric power in the long term at 4 cents per kilowatt-hour with the help of high-volume mass production and modular design. If you know about this, please tell.
Edited by Joe Romm, we cover climate science, solutions and politics. Columnist Tom Friedman calls us "the indispensable blog" and Time magazine named us one of the 25 "Best Blogs of 2010." Newcomers, start here.
Joe Romm has pulled together the secrets of the greatest communicators in history to show how you can apply these tools to your writing, speaking, blogging — even your Tweeting.
You wrote a lot this week on green jobs. If we want to get serious about green jobs, I think we need to look beyond wind and solar to infrastructure improvements that will save energy and create non-exportable, long-term employment:
http://theidiottracker.blogspot.com/2011/10/how-to-get-serious-about-green-jobs-4.html
I would agree. Frankly, I’m starting to cringe at the term “green jobs”. Perhaps this reflects Republican success in taking out yet another word (like “climate change”, “stimulus”, …) to mean something bad, polarizing, or ideological. But more fundamentally, in agreement with Vinod Khosla, all jobs in the future should be “green jobs”. There are no “green jobs”. They are all “mainstream jobs”. Every job should be concerned about sustainability and efficiency.
As for infrastructure, a job is a job, be it public or private. Part of the today’s unemployment is a mismatch between job openings and skills. Infrastructure and energy efficiency is a good way to employ those in construction, now currently sitting on the side lines due to the housing bubble. And it’s work that is needed given the C’s and D’s given by the American Society of Civil Engineers. It’s work that will have to be done anyway.
I think it worth posting this again – Ecocide a new crime against humanity this mock trial could soon be a reality. Post it to the deniers and polluters and let them know we look forward to seeing them in the dock.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2011/sep/29/ecocide-oil-criminal-court
When
Joe Chaisson
Research and Technical Director, Clean Air Task Force
David Goldston
Director of Government Affairs, Natural Resources Defense Council
Steven Hamburg
Chief Scientist, Environmental Defense Fund
signed onto the Bipartisan Policy Center’s
Dysfunctional, Lop-Sided Geoengineering Panel That Launched The Greenwashing Euphemism, “Climate Remediation”,
did they seek advice from climate hawks regarding the idea that climate remediation is more useful than geo-engineering?
Probably not.
Now we’ll have to fight money makers who will propagandize their plans as simply climate remediation…not climate engineering. Sounds less threatening.
A repost from Jeff Huggins. I think it is an excellent point worthy of further study, would love to hear others opinion.
Hate to Say It, But …
My goodness, if people such as Tom Friedman, Paul Krugman, Andy Revkin, and (periodically) the folks who write editorials at The New York Times care so deeply about climate change, and understand it to be the vitally important and urgent issue that it is, why in Hell (the point calls for this bluntness; sorry) is the actual coverage of climate change in The New York Times so dismal, insufficient, and not nearly up to the task? I mean, why? I really mean it: WHY??
As much as I deeply respect Krugman, and perhaps Friedman to a lesser degree, and Revkin to a still-lesser degree, nevertheless, it seems that they’re willing to write about climate change and do just about anything EXCEPT for the one thing that could have the greatest impact by far, if they did it: insist (to Times leadership) that the Times take its coverage of climate change to an entirely new level of focus, gravity, clarity, vigor, energy, coherence, courage, excellence, frequency, and so forth. But this is the one thing that Krugman, Friedman, Revkin, and the others don’t seem to be doing or want to do. And indeed it’s the one thing that would take real courage, that would actually put something on the line.
I know of a Harvard B-School professor who is a long-standing member of ExxonMobil’s Board of Directors. He’s also the author of books such as ‘True North’, about leadership and integrity in business. Oh my gosh, already that seems to demonstrate great inconsistency, at least if you ask me. In any case, long ago I corresponded with him once or twice. I don’t know his latest thinking, but I recently heard from a co-author of his that he probably believes that it’s better to be ON the Board, in order to influence it positively (presumably? who knows?), than to resign because of ExxonMobil’s irresponsibility with respect to climate change, and then make that resignation a signal that could actually have some influence on matters. But “I can’t rock the boat too much; it’s better to belong” — is the idea. (not a quote or even a paraphrase, but representative of the idea that many people seem to adopt)
What’s my point? It seems to me that everyone wants to (or claims to want to) write about, or act up about, climate change in ways that suit their professions, fulfill their jobs, make money, and appeal to their constituents. That’s EASY. Everyone wants the other guy or the other guy’s company to change. Most likely Friedman and Krugman think that ExxonMobil should change. But do they think that The New York Times should change? Do they think that The Times’ coverage of climate change could and should be light-years better than it is? Well if they do, it’s not showing.
At this point, I’m just about more fed-up with the soft cheerleaders of the climate change cause, whose own institutions are actually part of the problem or enabling it, than I am with the usual suspects who are at least “obvious” in their irresponsibility. It’s true: Rex Tillerson never promised me, or us, that he’d be anything other than Rex Tillerson, Chairman of ExxonMobil. But President Obama did make promises to me, and to us, and he’s not fulfilling them. That makes me deeply frustrated. And it doesn’t help much that Tom Friedman says this or that but that he (apparently) hasn’t done much to actually get The Times itself to provide the coverage of climate change that they ought to provide. (Nor does his long-ago bumbling of the science, on TV — wasn’t that Friedman? — give me much faith that he actually knows what he’s talking about before he writes about it. But that was long ago. I’ll give him some leeway if he can get The Times to get its act together.)
Anyhow, that’s my two cents worth for today.
Be Well,
lemmonmc says:
October 8, 2011 at 10:24 am
Since neither (Krugman nor Friedman) have nothing to do with the NYT news/science reporting, can’t they still raise Mr. Huggins point in print, editorials, or television-radio-internet-interviews, let alone speak directly with those dpts. about this? Can’t they use their prestige to vector a spotlight on this particular aspect of climate change politics and or journalism? I Think Mr.Huggins is hitting on a really deep and serious problem that’s actually within the climate change ‘believer’ crowd. Personally I think this deserves it’s own article and thank you Mr.Huggins for bringing it up.
Thanks lemmonmc. Happy Saturday!
Jeff
Report about 12 days ago:
http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c154/233799.html
“Heavy methane emissions found in Arctic Eastern sector”
I’m an amateur here. Can anyone tell me if it’s OK to panic yet?
I think panic is a great idea, its time. There is a significant risk that billions of people could perish prematurely (2,000,000,000 or more) in the next 90 years under the business as usual or slightly worse scenarios. The concept that “we will be protected in the US of A” is a dangerous delusion, IMO. Continuing to live your life as if nothing was pending is also dangerous.
Panic as an out-of-control emotional spasm is probably not useful. Panic that motivates you towards decisive action to help to head off imminent disaster would be the wise choice. What would you do if your actions could help to prevent the premature deaths of billions, including people you know?
Nick Toberg, part of a team of scientists from Cambridge trying to find out why Arctic sea ice is melting so fast, conducts survey work on ice floe 500 miles (800 km) from the North Pole September 3, 2011.
Photo: Reuters/Stuart McDill
As polar bears stalked their ship, scientists drilled into the Arctic sea ice this week to try and figure out why it’s disappearing so fast.
The disintegrating ice floes — each half the size of a football field — floated among narrow lanes of open water next to the Arctic Sunrise, the Greenpeace ice breaker likely to be the most northerly ship in the world, according to ice pilot Arne Sorensen.
Nearby, in a monochrome landscape between the Norwegian island of Svalbard and the North Pole, a large cub patted and licked a lollipop-shaped part of laser scanner as it passed. Cracks several meters wide appeared in seconds beneath the scientists’ feet, prompting a hasty retreat.
http://planetark.org/wen/63201
The story of the century and the media ignores it.
Russian, U.S. scientists set to study methane release in Arctic
01:32 02/09/2011
VLADIVOSTOK, September 2 (RIA Novosti
A group of Russian and U.S. scientists will leave the port of Vladivostok on Friday on board a Russian research ship to study methane emissions in the eastern part of the Arctic.
“This expedition was organized on a short notice by the Russian Fund of Fundamental Research and the U.S. National Science Foundation following the discovery of a dramatic increase in the leakage of methane gas from the seabed in the eastern part of the Arctic http://en.rian.ru/science/20110902/166364635.html
Thanks. The link I gave seemed to be an interim report on what they were finding. It said they were about halfway through the expedition so we should know more around the end of the month.
What, your not panicking already!
Here’s a suggestion from the John George Democratic Club in Oakland–post a warning on all gas pumps reading, “WARNING: Burning gasoline increases the risk of serious climate change. The City of _______ urges you to economize on the use of gas and seek alternatives such as public transit, bicycles, and electric cars.”
I’d also like to call your attention to this post of mine–”Anyone for Bridge?”–showing the odds that global warming is not real.
http://solarpowerelectriccars.blogspot.com/2011/08/anyone-for-bridge.html
Yes, make it so.
Yes, good one.
SPIEGLE reporting from the 99% movement http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/0,1518,790509,00.html
Use google translate
I’ve encountered the argument that, (A) should summer sea ice disappear in the Arctic in a few years, that would mark the beginning of a catastrophic methane release. Therefore, this line of reasoning goes, we must (B) immediately deploy some kind of geoengineering (cloud whitening or stratospheric sulfates) to prevent the onset of a sea-ice free Arctic.
So far as I can tell, no serious researcher is making claim (A) – I’m interested in any opinions. As regards strategy (B): were we able to detect the threat of imminent abrupt methane destabilization, how compelling is the “emergency basis” argument for SRM?
The us navy research indicates that it will be gone effectively by around 2016. All plot data is pointing to this. Search this blog for links.
There is no way that humans can intervene on any meaningfully way to avert this. So if indeed this does trigger more methane venting it will be.
We need to be planing for climate chaos now. We are going to have at least a 2.5c rise and that is catastrophic. Sea levels were 20ft higher when it was last this temp.
The German military is starting to plan for this. They recently released an amazing report on this and peak oil…..
https://www.facebook.com/ajax/sharer/?s=99&appid=2309869772&p%5B0%5D=139434822741700&p%5B1%5D=200664170004606
The Peak Oil Crisis: The German Army Report
http://www.postcarbon.org
In the last five or six years at least 20 major studies have been published by governmental and non-governmental organizations that either deal with or touch upon the possibility of severe energy shortages developing in the near future. Studies do
Just a quick note for folks who haven’t yet seen Michael “Pit-Bull” Mann’s hard-hitting op/ed piece at http://www.vaildaily.com/article/20111001/EDITS/110939988/1021&ParentProfile=1065
Dr. Mann isn’t taking any s**t from anyone these days, and he isn’t shy about tearing some new ones.
So go read Dr. Mann’s piece and then give the good scientist a little bit of your support by clicking on the “recommend” link at the top of the page.
So go read his piece and
Climate and weather: Extreme measures
Can violent hurricanes, floods and droughts be pinned on climate change? Scientists are beginning to say yes. http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110907/full/477148a.html
India’s nuclear future put on hold
Safety fears derail plan to import reactors. http://www.nature.com/news/2011/111006/full/news.2011.581.html
Clean-energy credits tarnished
WikiLeaks reveals that most Indian claims are ineligible.
As the world gears up for the next round of United Nations climate-change negotiations in Durban, South Africa, in November, evidence has emerged that a cornerstone of the existing global climate agreement, the international greenhouse-gas emissions-trading system, is seriously flawed.
Critics have long questioned the usefulness of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which was established under the Kyoto Protocol. It allows rich countries to offset some of their carbon emissions by investing in climate-friendly projects, such as hydroelectric power and wind farms, in developing countries. Verified projects earn certified emission reductions (CERs) — carbon credits that can be bought and sold, and count towards meeting rich nations’ carbon-reduction targets.
But a diplomatic cable published last month by the WikiLeaks website reveals that most of the CDM projects in India should not have been certified because they did not reduce emissions beyond those that would have been achieved without foreign investment. Indian officials have apparently known about the problem for at least two years. http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110927/full/477517a.html
So far, the newly available image libraries of the Arctic and Antarctic have seen only modest use from scientists. “One of our biggest challenges is to educate the science community about the existence of our programme,” says Bruce Molnia, executive director of the Civil Applications Committee at the USGS in Reston, Virginia, which oversees civilian use of classified image data. And the members of MEDEA, who have access to the full array of classified data, are, for now at least, using it to address policy questions raised by government agencies — such as what national security risks are posed by climate change — rather than conducting fundamental research of their own choosing. http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110921/full/477388a.html
Canada’s ice cores seek new home
Confusion over fate of valuable climate record chills researchers. http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110915/full/news.2011.538.html
Are there ANY good news coming from Canada?
The Harper gov here is just as bad as the previous bush one.
Climate change is knocking real hard here now too and people are waking up. Hopefully we will have a Canadian Spring soon.
ScienceDaily (Oct. 6, 2011) — In the central Arctic the proportion of old, thick sea ice has declined significantly. Instead, the ice cover now largely consists of thin, one-year-old floes. This is one of the results that scientists of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association brought back from the 26th Arctic expedition of the research vessel Polarstern.
<a href=http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/10/111006102617.htm<Young and Thin Instead of Old and Bulky: Researchers Report On Changes in Arctic Sea Ice After Return of Research Vessel Polarstern
Let’s try that link again:
Young and Thin Instead of Old and Bulky: Researchers Report On Changes in Arctic Sea Ice After Return of Research Vessel Polarstern
Hi Martin,
There are two big problems with 1st-year sea ice: First is that it is salty — so it melts at -1.7 C instead of 0 C. Second, it’s albedo is 0.6 compared to 0.8 for multi-year sea ice.
So even though 1st year sea ice can be up to 2 m thick, it melts out much more readily during Summer. There is no recovery until 5+ MY sea ice again dominates the Central Arctic Basin.
This will not happen under a ‘business-as-usual’ emissions scenario.
Is the difference in albedo between 1st year and multi-year ice modeled as a climate change forcing? Are the climate models aware of this difference?
Reuters 10/7/11:
Texas so far has suffered more than $5 billion in agricultural losses, and wildfires have scorched millions of acres as the state suffers its longest dry period on record.
So much ag loss – I wonder if $5b is the farmers loss. I read that the farmer gets about $0.07 per dollar of retail food price. So this $5b could equal $71b retail food loss. Considering the losses in China, Russia last year, Australia – I can’t help think food will be a bigger problem sooner than we think.
Richard, Right you are. Food will be a big problem, but probably not significantly for a decade or more. Some countries will have production increases due to more rain, for example, and they will fill in the shortages.
But over the decades, there will be fewer and fewer to do this filling in as temperatures rise worldwide.
We need badly to shift now from trying to reduce CO2 emissions since Big Coal and Big Oil are just too powerful. Look at what has happened to all international conferences to limit CO2 – Zero progress.
We ought to shift gears now to studies on how to limit sunlight hitting earth as a way to reduce temperatures. I am waiting for Climate Progress to start making that shift as a leader in thinking about climate change.
The Guardian reports that 68% of Europeans consider climate change a very serious threat.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/oct/07/europeans-climate-change-poll
So I want to take off in two directions from here. The first is on the politicization of climate. Representative Ralph Hall announced that the Science, Space, and Technology Committee will start an investigation into NOAA and whether or not NOAA is forming an “unauthorized” climate service. This is consistent with: 1) A statement from the American Association for the Advancement of Science that the political attack on climate researchers is, effectively, impeding the scientific process and stalling the advancement of science. (Which the readers of my blogs will know is the goal of the political arguments, hence, a successful strategy.) And 2) Forms a thread back to this entry in 2007, and, well, much longer. (Oreskes video: Merchants of Doubt) This has evolved to the point that Scott Mandia has started a Climate Science Legal Defense Fund to which you are welcome to contribute.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/comment.html?entrynum=206#commenttop
Parts of Bangkok received as much as 101 mm of rain Friday.
A photo collection from Thailand -
http://www.torontosun.com/2011/10/08/flooding-in-thailand
Heatwaves and Blizzards — Which is the Best Evidence for Global Warming?
But wait a minute, climate sceptics will argue. What about the cold winters of recent years? Well, here’s where the story gets interesting, and where we discover the value of the scientific method as opposed to our very human ‘gut feelings’, everyday experiences and short memories. This may seem difficult to believe, but according to a recent paper published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters (GRL), the last two winters’ warm extremes were more “severe” than their cold snaps.
In winter everyone notices a blizzard – if your car is buried in snow, the highways are in chaos, and no-one can get to work, this creates a sense of crisis and lasting memories. Hence the so-called ‘snowmaggedon’ events in 2010, which were used by some conservatives as evidence against the reality of global warming.
This stands to reason, of course – if the world is getting warmer, why is it snowing so much in winter? The answer lies in what we don’t notice – those mild days in winter when no snow lies, and the weather feels strangely springlike, even in January and February. According to the GRL paper, when taken in the context of the last 63 northern hemisphere winters, those of 2009-10 and 2010-11 were more unusual for their warmth than for their cold. For cold extremes, they ranked 21st and 34th respectively, whilst for warm ‘snaps’ they came in at 12th and 4th.
http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2011/10/07/heatwaves-and-blizzards-which-is-the-best-evidence-for-global-warming/
Bipartisan Policy Center is looking at a “Plan B” that assumes mitigation of CO2 fails (a very reasonable assumption given evidence).
This Center is in Washington and was initiated by two Senators from each party.
This is excellent news because it assesses our future realistically instead of just more hoping and praying that mankind becomes reasonable about burning of fossil fuel in particular. We have hoped and prayed and cajoled and mocked until we are blue in the face. It is not working, folks. Time for a new strategy.
The Center is talking about ways to reduce sunlight hitting earth which is a way to reduce warming. It is a highly problematic thing to do and there is valid concern about the ill effects of such tinkering with our atmosphere by doing things like pumping aerosols into it.
But we are finally moving ahead it seems in our thinking. This is wonderful news. Next and soon we need another plan – Plan C. It will start to think about what we do if both Plans A and B fail. How can we protect the maximum number from chaos resulting from disappearance of all food and water supplies? Will parts of earth be habitable, if so, where are these places, and how can they be secured.
Assuming the Center gets into their Plan B studies, this is fantastic news and is a real ray of hope. It is a giant step towards realism.
I should have said – four Senators, two from each Party initiated this Center. The Center works on other issues of high importance in addition to climate.
Here is a link to a New York Times article about the Bipartisan Policy Center’s plans for exploring mitigation of heating of the earth:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/science/earth/04climate.html?_r=1
Modest geo-engineering anybody? Here is a new and inexpensive scheme which might stop global warming (but not ocean acidification):
http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/10/08/low-intensity-geoengineering-microbubbles-and-microspheres/
Russia has at least one denier in its oil and gas industry.
“Fields of extensive methane outbursts found in Arctic region”
http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/09/28/56886547.html
“…., head of the Institute of oil and gas of the Russian academy of sciences Anatoly Dmitriyevsky says:
“Methane outburst in the process of natural failure of hydrates is a natural phenomenon. The nature regulates such processes for many years. So that is a common thing and it does not imply any disaster.”"
That article also say that the methane venting appears to be linked to geological activity. Very interesting link to GW and feed backs….
A few points from Canada:
1- Alberta has a new premier. Alison Redford, a human rights lawyer.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/story/2011/10/06/edmonton-redford-sworn-in.html
But she still belongs to the conservative party, the same party in power Alberta for the past 40 years. Not sure if this will change things in the tar sands.
2- I went to Haida Gwaii this summer, off the coast of British Columbia. Signs everywhere to say they do not want the Enbridge Gateway pipeline to cross BC, and no tankers off the coast. No tankers, no problem plenty of bumper stickers say. Check the August edition of National Geographic.
3- I also went to Jasper National Park. I didn’t take the snow coach onto the Columbia Icefields, but I did walk onto the toe of the glacier – the toe has been roped off because it’s in danger of collapsing. And there may be only a decade left for the snow coaches to take tourists far onto the icefield. The lateral moraine on which the snowcoach travels to get there is collapsing. Global warming is already affecting tourism in the north.
Must view summary…
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/climatechange/science/55845/status-report-on-key-climate-i.asp
Yesterday’s USA TODAY has a front page article headlined “Taste ths: Climate change may redraw wine regions” by Elizabeth Weise. Ok article, but failed to mention the very fine wines from grapes grown here in eastern Washington state.
Still an all, do note the headline.
Insurance Against the Future
green.blogs.nytimes.com
As climate change alters weather patterns across the world, the insurance industry is slowly recognizing the threat that it poses to profitability.
climate portals
climate change throws a wrench in the works and is already wreaking havoc on balance sheets and shareholder value, according to Sharlene Leurig of the nonprofit research group Ceres. Ms. Leurig was the lead author of a report released last month that examined how the insurance industry is responding.
In addition to presenting the possibility of more and larger payouts because of harsher weather, climate change may also clip one of the industry’s major revenue streams.
The insurance industry collectively manages $23 trillion in global investments, and according to the wealth management firm Mercer Advisors, nearly 10 percent of those assets could be seriously compromised by climate change.
The Ceres report notes that liability issues present a third source of threat to the insurance industry. Mr. Kovacs said that a serious academic debate was under way over just how liable insurance companies are in the climate change context.
Let’s face it, there’s a 4th risk not mentioned…. Investors won’t be investing in the industry. I would be selling all my shares in this sector and i don’t think pension funds will be investing here also.
Can’t insurance companies just keep adding exclusions to what is covered in their policies to protect themselves?
I am familiar with boat insurance and exclusions and exceptions to coverage are in great flux over the last five or so years.
The Trillion-Dollar Storm: Will Hurricanes Drive Us Off The Coasts?
BY GREG LINDSAYTue Oct 4, 2011
As storms become more powerful and more damaging, will living on the coasts become simply impossible? Insurance companies might try to price you out before we find out.
http://www.fastcompany.com/1783816/the-trillion-dollar-storm-will-hurricanes-drive-us-off-the-coasts
That’s the scenario hedge fund manager and catastrophe bond pioneer John Seo had in mind when he predicted in the current issue of Foreign Policy that “a decade and a half from now, a single hurricane or earthquake will come with a potential price tag of $1 trillion or more. Imagine a world in which economic damage equivalent to that caused by a major war or the detonation of a midsized nuclear weapon in a major city could materialize with a warning of only a few days.”
If that’s the case, just how long until large chunks of America’s coastline become virtually uninsurable, starting with Lower Manhattan? Some would say this is a good thing, a perfect example of markets appropriately pricing risk and (dis-)incentivizing people accordingly. One of them is Matthew Kahn, an economist at UCLA and the author of Climatopolis: How Our Cities Will Thrive in the Hotter Future.
“A big issue in social sciences right now is how people process low probability events,” he says. “Climate change raises the probability of a catastrophic storm from one in ten thousand to one in a thousand. The insurance companies could be our leading indicator of this change. We have to allow them to “price gouge,” because are they gouging, or are they pricing new risk?”
The pivotal aspect of the loss of insurance cover – which is clearly in the pipeline – is that immobile physical assets will suddenly lose their collateral value as backing for past loans.
That is, both the holders of the loans – banks and finance houses etc – and the holders of the assets – from families to businesses to corporations – will suddenly find a massive and irretrievable black hole in their balance sheets.
Yet more Weimar dollars cannot resolve the issue, as it requires the annual outgoing of an unnaffordable sum to meet rational insurance premiums. Such a policy would collapse the dollar on world markets.
The delusion that climatic destabilization will affect major foreign governments more than the US is being tested to destruction.
Regards,
Lewis
Climate Portals http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/10/07/the-business-of-cooling-the-planet/
The business of cooling the planet – Fortune Tech
tech.fortune.cnn.com
Climate scientists and their billionaire backers, like Bill Gates, are trying to turn down the global thermostat - and make money doing it. By Marc Gunther, contributor FORTUNE — One of the cool things about being Bill Gates is that if you are curious about something, you can find smart peopl…
Of course it is about jobs, about capitalism, about climate change, about drone-fought assassinations.
The root of it all is ASYMMETRY.
Our economy is asymmetrical, when one percent (is that pop, mom, and kids?) own more than half of the wealth of their country.
All the changes the Republican governors are making in our State laws are extremely asymmetrical.
Our marriage with Israel is asymmetrical, thinking 7 million Israelis on a bit of land is our basic base in the Muslim world is not only ridiculous but asymmetrical.
All the wars we are fighting are asymmetrical, fighting terrorists, or insurgents, who can be anyone and everyone, without even a fraction of the resources we have.
The destruction of rain forests in Brazil, Borneo, elsewhere is asymmetrical in the extreme.
The horrors of the Rep of Congo is asymmetrical where corporations and countries fight for rare earth resources by killing a million people.
The planetary ecology has become asymmetrical — and ecologies cannot be. One species lethally interfering in the planetary ecology by not only causing global warming but perhaps more important continuing to cause a steep decline in biodiversity is the essence of asymetry.
All the uprisings that are happening literally all over the world (not reported in the global north) are about protesting the enormous asymmetry — expressing an overwhelming need to get more symmetry..
Asymmetry that is totally unsustainable.
“”It’s hard to believe, but we’ve been dealing with a flood for the better part of spring and the summer. We still have high water,” Purtill said.
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/10/08/manitoba-wildfire_n_1001642.html
Seems that many industries are becoming more exclusive. I doubt that they want to be more exclusive it just seems to happen that way.
Some say there is no time to loose in becoming more self reliant and also learning that others are also heading that way.
My hydroponics unit is still having plant growth and I
Think it is a good investment to have PVC hydroponics.
Enjoy
Raul
Also, PVC hydroponics could easily fit into landscaping projects, as the water is only kept in the pipe and doesn’t need watering even weekly. The fertilizer application is by the small amounts not by the pound, so to have city landscaping it might be the smart way to conserve resources. Course it could also work well in the county areas. New age gardening?
The flooding event in Thailand reminds me of Australia last winter. A huge sheet of water crossing the landscape.
” The floods have ravaged vast areas of Asia’s food bowl, threatening to drive up food prices. ”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/bangkok-on-alert-as-waters-rise-20111009-1lfq7.html#ixzz1aIHrTLmQ
I saw a trade story a couple of weeks ago, about the BNSF Rail Road losses this year …..
$ 350,000,000.00 .
The bill for the Thai Floods is rising fast -
” The Rojana estate in Ayutthaya province, run by Rojana Industrial Park Pcl, was flooded after a wall of sandbags failed to hold back water overnight.
“All 198 factories at Rojana have to be closed because the water is about 5.1 metres high,” Industry Minister Wannarat Channukul told Reuters.”
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/10/09/uk-thailand-flooding-idUKTRE7980B020111009
But taken together, the separate moves — led by House Republicans — add up to a stunning campaign against governmental regulatory authority that is now surprisingly close to succeeding.
In just the year since the GOP took control of the House, there have been at least 159 votes held against environmental protections — including 83 targeting the Environmental Protection Agency — on the House floor alone, according to a list compiled by Democrats on the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
“Republicans have made an assault on all environmental issues,” said Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), the top Democrat on the committee. “This is, without doubt, the most anti-environmental Congress in history.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/09/epa-republican-war-defund_n_1000664.html#comments
PVC hydroponics (whole rig) could float in a big moat.
I just got via some links from here to something written by one James Delingpole, but probably similar things could be said about other blogs and bloggers. It made me think there is an underestimated and underreported reason for denialism:
Sheer hatred of liberals/”lefties”/”tree-huggers” and/or the almost boundless joy of annoying/provoking/harressing/bashing/teasing/bullying/enraging them, just for the fun of it.
I suspect for some, facts and reason, decency etc. and even financial interest hardly matter compared to the joy of seeing liberals suffer. Which seems easy to accomplish, because people who DO care about something are easy to hurt.
It reminds me of someone I know who is exactly the kind of person that would on occasion use his considerable intelligence and argumentative skill just to intellectually “outmaneuver” someone and exploit somebody’s passion on an issue to make him suffer.
Making the target lose composure seems both entertaining and creating a feeling of intellectual superiority, regardless of actual correctness of arguments or anything like that.
THE REST OF THE STORY
You know that cartoon at the top of this thread? Eventually, sea levels rose above the guy’s head and he drowned. Appearing at the Pearly Gates, he complained “Lord, why didn’t you SAVE me??”
God replied, “Buddy, I sent you Hansen, Romm, and Cook…. what more do ya want?”
One percent wannabes have very large carbon footprints which they would often like to grow exponentially.
“One percent wannabes” has 0 Google hits.
Post oil: Glimpses of life after fossil fuel
Contentious debates about “peak oil” aside, imagining how the world looks post oil is increasingly easy as alternatives to fossil fuel develop rapidly.
By Jina Moore, Correspondent / October 7, 2011
http://www.csmonitor.com/Innovation/Tech/2011/1007/Post-oil-Glimpses-of-life-after-fossil-fuel
Global warming and ocean heat content http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/10/global-warming-and-ocean-heat-content/
Images not working
Deep ocean heat is rapidly melting Antarctic ice
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2010/12/15/207091/deep-ocean-heat-is-rapidly-melting-antarctic-ice-global-warmin/
Unusually heavy monsoon rains inundated southern Pakistan in the summer of 2011, submerging fields and forcing residents from their homes. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs this week reported that 5.44 million people had been affected, 1.8 million residents had been displaced, and 2.1 million acres of cropland had been damaged.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured these images of southern Pakistan on October 6, 2011 (top), and October 7, 2009 (bottom). Both images use a combination of visible and infrared light to better distinguish between water and land. Water ranges from electric blue to navy. Vegetation is green. Bare ground is pink-beige. Clouds are pale blue-green
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/environment/flood/world-from-space-severe-flooding-in-pakistan/41146.html
The Greeks often invoked idiosyncratic explanations of natural phenomena by reference to the will of anthropomorphic gods and heroes. Thales, however, aimed to explain natural phenomena via a rational explanation that referenced natural processes themselves. For example, Thales attempted to explain earthquakes by hypothesizing that the Earth floats on water, and that earthquakes occur when the Earth is rocked by waves, rather than assuming that earthquakes were the result of supernatural processes. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thales
According to Herodotus (1.74):
“ In the sixth year a battle took place in which it happened, when the fight had begun, that suddenly the day became night. And this change of the day Thales the Milesian had foretold to the Ionians laying down as a limit this very year in which the change took place. The Lydians however and the Medes, when they saw that it had become night instead of day, ceased from their fighting and were much more eager both of them that peace should be made between them. ”
According to NASA, the eclipse peaked over the Atlantic Ocean at 37.9°N 46.2°W and the umbral path reached south-western Anatolia in the evening hours, and the Halys River is just within the error margin for delta-T provided. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Halys_(585_BCE)
So what is the analogous Thales Moment in climate change messaging?
Just wanted to pass on a great new source of information for those interested in translated the general policy goal of avoding dangerous climate change into cumulative carbon quotas (or lack thereof1), atmospheric GHG concentrations, and the necessary annual/periodic reductions necessary to meet the concentration and mass-based limits. Its
The Report is by the Australian Meteorology Bureau and is entitled “Global climate goals for temperature, concentrations,
emissions and cumulative emissions” dated September 2011.
Hope some find it useful
I heard someone say recently (possible in a YouTube video) that the Kramer Junction solar power plant, having paid off all its loans, is currently operating at a cost of about 3 cents per kilowatt-hour. I cannot find any evidence or verification of this information, and don’t want to use it without a source. If I could verify this, I would have one more good bit of evidence for my belief that CSP can deliver electric power in the long term at 4 cents per kilowatt-hour with the help of high-volume mass production and modular design. If you know about this, please tell.
http://www.grist.org/list/2011-10-10-australian-golf-course-is-infested-with-sharks