As Climate Talks Begin, America is “Not Bringing a Lot to the Table”
Other key stories below: Global Warming 2° C Target “No Longer Attainable”; Can Carbon for the Price of Pizza Save the Planet?
AP Photo/Peter Dejong
Ahead of Climate Talks, U.S. Leadership in Question
A new round of United Nations climate talks is getting under way in Durban, South Africa, Monday. And domestic struggles here in the United States are hampering the global talks….
That’s putting a crimp on the 20-year-long struggle to develop a meaningful climate treaty.
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There was a glimmer of hope at a U.N. meeting two years ago in Copenhagen. Nations weren’t going for a binding treaty, but some pledged to take serious action anyway.
President Obama stood before the tense meeting and promised that the United States would do its part.
“Almost all the major economies have put forward legitimate targets, significant targets, ambitious targets,” he said. “And I’m confident that America will fulfill the commitments that we have made, cutting our emissions in the range of 17 percent by 2020 and in the range of 80 percent by 2050, in line with final legislation.”
Ambitious targets, indeed, but the last phrase, “in line with final legislation” ended up being a killer caveat.
The promise to cut emissions was contingent on Congress passing an aggressive cap-and-trade bill. But that 2,000-page bill went into the trash instead of onto the president’s desk. The Great Recession briefly achieved what Congress didn’t — national emissions fell for a short time. But no longer.
“Starting in 2010 it looks like we’re starting to see an uptick again, and you would expect to see emissions continuing to increase in a business-as-usual case out to 2020,” says Kevin Kennedy at the World Resources Institute….
“Nowhere else in the world do you see a political debate about whether climate science is real, whether or not the climate is actually changing,” Kennedy says. “That political climate makes it very difficult to move forward in a comprehensive way. And that is something we need to address in this country.”
… Alden Meyer at the Union of Concerned Scientists says the weak actions domestically mean the U.S. doesn’t have much leverage in the international talks.
“The U.S. is not able to show its partners how we are going to meet the 17 percent reduction President Obama committed to,” Meyer says. Also we are struggling to come up with our fair share of the financing for developing nation action on technology, on adaptation, on preserving forests. So we’re not bringing a lot to the table.”
Durban Should Be a Wake Up Call For the World
Climatologists have recently issued a warning over global weather patterns, stating that the world will experience more severe storms, droughts and flooding and that they attribute this to increased man-made global warming. Durban should be a wake-up call for the world to listen and act.
So far the news ahead of the Durban conference has been depressing. Global recession is taking precedence and many of the industrialised countries are reluctant to commit to the financial programmes necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
We have been told that a positive and substantial outcome is unlikely, but Greens believe it is essential that a package is negotiated that allows a global agreement to be forthcoming for the post-2012, second commitment period.
From 28 November to 9 December this year, the global community will converge in Durban for yet another round of negotiations to work out a deal to stabilise the climate system and assure vulnerable communities of a promising future.
Global warming 2°C target “no longer attainable”
Munich Re reckons hopes of a successful conclusion to the world climate summit, which starts today in Durban, South Africa, are “extremely slim”.
Progress may be achieved in the second negotiating track, i.e. adaptation aid for the countries worst hit by climate change.
However, after the collapse of negotiations in Copenhagen two years’ ago, global warming issues would appear to be doomed to further failure in Durban, meaning the Kyoto Protocol will expire with no follow-up agreement.
Munich Re argues that the 2°C target that scientists consider the maximum for containing global warming within manageable limits is virtually no longer attainable.
The firm has been analysing climate change for nearly forty years and its database of natural catastrophes worldwide shows the number of registered loss occurrences from extreme weather increasing almost threefold since 1980.
The number of flood loss events has gone up by a factor of more than three and the number of windstorm natural catastrophes has more than doubled.
Can carbon for the price of a pizza save the planet?
Climate negotiators meeting in South Africa this week face fresh worries over saving the planet from global warming now that a tonne of carbon trades at the price of a pizza.
A European steel plant producing a tonne of steel pays as little as $12 for the resulting carbon emissions, spelling trouble for Europe’s carbon emissions trading scheme, the world’s largest.
At those prices, there is little incentive for industry to lower its carbon output, meaning one of Europe’s major tools in fighting climate change is broken.
Analysts say carbon prices would need to return to 2008 levels in order start making a difference. “Given current commodities prices, we would need 20 euros a tonne to achieve a significant emissions reduction,” said Per Lekander, an analyst at UBS.
“I look at the price in the morning and don’t want to get out of bed,” said a London-based emissions trader.
London is the EU carbon market’s hub, with traders, brokers, power generators and project originators responsible for the bulk of trade.
Climate Change: Vulnerable Countries Consider “Occupying” Global Climate Talks
Diplomats from some developing countries may “occupy” the UN climate negotiations that begin on Monday in Durban by staging sit-ins and boycotts over the lack of urgency in the talks.
The move follows a call by the former president of Costa Rica for vulnerable countries to refuse to leave the talks until “substantial” progress has been made.
“I have called on all vulnerable countries to ‘occupy’ Durban. We need an expression of solidarity by the delegations of those countries that are most affected by climate change, who go from one meeting to the next without getting responses on the issues that need to be dealt with,” said José María Figueres.
“We went to Copenhagen [in 2009] with the illusion we could reach an equitable agreement. We went to Cancún [in 2009] where we saw slight but not sufficient progress. Frustration is now deep and building. Now we hear that we will need more conferences. Sometime we have to get serious. We should be going to Durban with the firm conviction that we do not come back until we have made substantial advances.”
As the full cost of the Fukushima nuclear accident continues to climb—Japanese officials now peg it at $64 billion or more—nuclear power’s future is literally headed south. Developed countries are slowing or shuttering their nuclear-power programs, while states to their south, in the world’s hotspots (think the Middle East and Far East), are pushing to build reactors of their own. Normally, this would lead to even more of a focus on nuclear safety and nonproliferation. Yet, given how nuclear-reactor sales have imploded in the world’s advanced economies, both these points have been trumped by nuclear supplier states’ desires to corner what reactor markets remain.
Certainly, nuclear sales opportunities are far less flush than they once were.
This spring, Germany permanently shut down eight of its reactors and pledged to shutter the rest by 2022. Shortly thereafter, the Italians voted overwhelmingly to keep their country nonnuclear. Switzerland and Spain followed suit, banning the construction of any new reactors. Then Japan’s prime minster killed his country’s plans to expand its reactor fleet, pledging to reduce Japan’s reliance on nuclear power dramatically. Taiwan’s president did the same. Now Mexico is sidelining construction of 10 reactors in favor of developing natural-gas-fired plants, and Belgium is toying with phasing its nuclear plants out, perhaps as early as 2015.
Previous in TP Climate Progress
Language Intelligence: Lessons on persuasion from Jesus, Shakespeare, Lincoln, and Lady Gaga
In a SPIEGEL interview, German Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen, 46, discusses the United Nations climate summit in Durban, South Africa, the West’s ecological deficit and the halting efforts for Germany to abandon nuclear plants and shift almost entirely to renewable energy sources.
SPIEGEL: If you were the president of a global government, and you alone could determine the course of international climate policy, what would you do?
Röttgen: I can only offer the view of the German environment minister — and from my perspective, it is reasonable and necessary to introduce rules of competition that protect the climate. The ultimate objective would then be a per capita budget for greenhouse gas emissions, which would apply to every person on the planet. It’s ultimately also a matter of justice.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,800288,00.html
This is the solution to our planets breached boundaries and to combating ecocide.
“Our lifestyle of the past few decades has revolved around a dangerous egotism, which only focuses on our present needs, and which we now have to overcome,” Röttgen says.
btw. Cudos to the SPIEGEL for offering a translation for this bold ideas! Think of the NYT offering a german translation of energy minister Chu about climate change and the Sputnik momentum.
“Nowhere Else in the World Do You See a Political Debate About Whether Climate Science Is Real”
Proof positive that nowhere else do the moneyed interest have such complete control over the news cycle, journalism, journalists, politicians, and the government of “we the people” than here in the United States.
I’m afraid that Australia is in the same boat. Just last night, the head of the Government ‘Future Fund’, therefore in charge of tens of billions, was on the telly. He was arguing, like the business Boss he was, that the labor laws must be made more ‘business friendly’ ie worker unfriendly. Well, he would say that, wouldn’t he? But then he went on to reveal himself to be an unapologetic climate destabilisation denialist, and based his assertions (delivered with that arrogant assurance so treasured in the business caste)on the ‘fact’ that ‘CO2 rose AFTER temperature increases’ not before, ie the long discredited zombie canard based on a misunderstanding of the science regarding the process at the end of Ice Ages. So, in this country, whether high or low, the Right is more firmly denying reality than ever before.
as the situation becomes increasingly worse
the denial will become more and more desperate
The denialists will get more desperate and dangerous because, being of the Right, they prefer violence as the means of getting their way. They are not in the business of compromising with ‘watermelons’ or any other of the decent sub-types of humanity. Moreover they know how they would react themselves if the shoe was on the other foot and it was the watermelon Left responsible for such a disaster. Knowing only the language of force and vengeance, they must be getting worried about packs of angry peasants roaming a blighted world.
I am sorry to say that here in Norway we still are discussing waether climate change is created by men, or we don’t discuss the problem at all. Most people don’t worry at all. We are too wealthy, I suppose.
Isn’t Norway’s wealth in large part from oil production?
Canada backs out! What the heck?
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20111127/durban-south-africa-slimate-conference-setup-111127/#ixzz1eyQ9c2fE
Disappointing. Now I imagine Peter Kent knows how Christine Todd Whitman felt in 2001.
And luckily for the world and global climate disruption, the Canadian Federal Government Minister of Environment is going to Durban to “explain the ‘benefits’ of our tar sands”!!!!
CNN World Business this morning reported that this fall is the warmest and driest in the Alps in 147 years.
Currently the Los Angeles area is experiencing extremely weird fall weather, fluctuating from very cold (by LA standards) to warm summer temperatures every few days.
Two days ago the thermometer at my house read 42 degrees F at night, and daytime temps peaked at under 60 degrees F; one day later (yesterday) afternoon temperatures pushed up to the 80 degree mark, and today’s forecast for the city of Torrance (also in Los Angeles county) predicts an 82 deg F peak. That’s a 22+ degree jump in two days – in a geographic location known for stable and predictable weather patterns until a decade ago.
More telling, fresh outbreaks of fleas in my backyard have occurred several times this year as unseasonal warm weather followed unseasonal cold weather, causing buried flea eggs to hatch for each new arrival of “summer”. And several of the jacaranda trees in my neighborhood have flowered several times each year in recent years, apparently triggered by multiple brief bursts of warm weather that fool the tree into thinking summer has arrived.
None of this counts as hard scientific data, but it’s increasingly obvious to even a minimally observant lay person that the weather is now routinely abnormal. “Abnormal is the new normal”, as the popular catchphrase goes.
-Gnobuddy
That sounds like the part of the new normal associated with a deeply looped jet stream that drags warm and cool weather around in unfamiliar ways. It took cold air to Mexico and Florida last winter.
You may know this, but for public benefit, the south-extending and raggedly-looped jet stream can be observed in the maps that are updated every six hours at San Francisco State’s page:
http://virga.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream.html
Joan, thanks for that fascinating link. I am going to check Mexico temps of the past two weeks and follow tin impact of the southern drifting jet. I could watch this animation for hours.
Joan, thanks for that fascinating link. I am going to check Mexico temps of the past two weeks and follow the impact of the southern drifting jet. I could watch this animation for hours.
I remember reading something, by Lovelock I think, some years ago, where he predicted that climate change would be extremely chaotic until it stabilised in a new steady-state, after some time. The break-neck increases in emissions, the albedo flip in the Arctic, the amplification of temperature rises there, the venting of methane from perma-frost and clathrates, the growth in mega-fires, peat fires and the drying out of tropical rainforests seem to have proceeded even faster than anyone imagined ten or twenty years ago. We seem on the brink of an Age of Chaos, ecologically, economically and geo-politically, and looking at the global ruling class, I’d say that we are well and truly stuffed.
Winter delayed one and a half month
Further north in Lapland, the town of Sodankylä has not over the last hundred years got the snow as late as this November, according to the Finnish Metrological Service. In the northernmost part of Lapland the October temperature was four degrees warmer than normal. In the village of Kilpisjärvi, the winter is one and a half months later than normal, reports YLE. On Lake Inari, the local fishermen continue fishing from their boats as the water is still without ice.
http://www.barentsobserver.com/the-heat-is-on.4990862-116320.html
A stove pipe solar power plant -
World’s Tallest Solar Tower Set for Arizona
ATLANTA, Georgia, Nov 27, 2011 (IPS) – In the western desert state of Arizona, a company called EnviroMission is planning to build a new solar tower, the first of its kind, an ambitious new way to produce energy with heat from the sun.
When completed in 2015, the tower, located in La Paz County, will be the tallest building in the world. It is the first of two such towers planned by EnviroMission for Arizona.
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=105977
Without moisture by Wednesday, Sioux City’s .59 of an inch between August and November will set a record for the driest fall since the 1800s, Schumacher said.
“Sioux City had .31 of an inch of rain in September, in October .23 of an inch and in November .05 of an inch,” he said.
Sioux Falls, S.D., and Marshall, Minn., are also expected to set records for dry conditions this fall.
http://www.lemarssentinel.com/story/1788837.html
HA NOI — Floods, triggered by torrential rain, have ravaged the central region over the weekend, with a countless number of houses and rice crops inundated or destroyed.
According to a report from the Central Steering Committee forStorm and Flood Control, average rainfall on Friday and Saturday in central coastal provinces from Thua Thien Hue to Binh Dinh was between 50-100mm.
Heavy rains, of 200-600mm were reported in some areas, including Nam Dong District in Thua Thien Hue, Da Nang City, Tam Ky, Tra My districts in Quang Nam and Ba To in Quang Ngai.
http://vietnamnews.vnagency.com.vn/Miscellany/218087/Floods-ravage-central-region-for-second-time-in-November.html
Two feet in two days ….. God, help those people .
‘Occupy’ – it really is becoming a magical word. Contrary to many commentators who forecast another long, lame duck and boring slog at Durban, it is possible that we will see new coalitions, new tactics and some fireworks. Stay tuned, ME
Rice 2.0: Climate changes rice in Japan
Forget radiation scares, Japan’s rice industry is up against global warming.
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/japan/111122/rice-2.0-climate-change-global-warming
Rice 2.0 is GlobalPost’s look at a tiny grain with a giant footprint.
Czech Republic is another country with politica leaders and (in)famous scientists in climate physics denial.
Actually NPPs are doing well enough in many countries.
It would, of course, help if many more around the world would read Professor Cohen’s “Understanding Risks”; NPPs are about as risky as eating peant better.
OT
Remember the Soviet-era Phobos 1 & 2 missions? Both probes were lost due to various computer design errors. First probe was lost because a technician sent a command with a wrong bit, which reactivated the hardcoded pre-launch test sequence in PROM memory; it sent the probe tumbling lifelessly through space, and it was never recovered.
The second probe was lost because 2 of its 3 onboard computers had failed; normally it should have been able to keep working, but some overconfident programmers had implemented a quorum algorithm to reinforce redundency in data and programs. But he had forgotten to implement safeguards to make a single onboard computer work alone despite the impossibility to check for quorum. So a perfectly working probe got stuck into a cycle of never-ending “check and wait” loops and drained its batteries. http://www.universetoday.com/91037/phobos-grunts-mysterious-thruster-activation-a-function-of-safe-mode-or-just-good-luck/#comment-370777248
Mars Monolith – Buzz Aldrin Confirms Phobos Structure http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oaiSfn8jlxY
RT.com Says HAARP Caused Malfunction of Phobos-Grunt – Just a Rumor? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EismHubKkw8
HAARP doesn’t get much of a mention these days. I doubt that the Pentacle… sorry Pentagon, would spend billions on mere ‘research’.