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The extra terrestrials are watching and wondering and keeping their safe distance. They are smart, that’s why they’ve been able to develop interstellar space travel instead of cooking their planet.
We are very close to the tipping point. Warming, even if it is a natural cycle, can be mitigated if we act now. It will be like taxing us all. We’ll have to pay more for energy, pay for new, clean-source development, pay for adverts countering the “Clean Coal” propaganda…..we’ll have to walk and use public transport more, to pay more for products made in greener, more expensive plants…we’ll have to settle for smaller dividends, higher taxes and simpler living. Will we? As a group (Humans)? I think not. I think greed will prevail.
The irony of your comment is that, to a great extent, you describe how a lot of happy Americans lived 60 or 70 years ago – At about the same time someone (GM executive?) said “We must convince people their wants are needs” or something to that effect.
In “Collapse”, Jared Diamond describes two islands, Easter Island and a smaller island in the Pacific (can’t find book). Easter I. chose one path, the one we’re currently on – no concern for future generations. The other managed to keep a stable population (sometimes helped by suicides) for a 1000 years or more by wisely using renewable resources – and essentially no imports/exports.
The small island example proves it is possible to have a no-growth, long-term sustainable economy. OTOH: What was child mortality? Life expectancy? How happy were they? Free time? What if not a tropical island so heat required in winter?
Small island is now “modernized” and is having significant problems including over population.
I like these island examples because we all live on one – Earth.
‘Tipping-points’ are long past. The tipping-point of the albedo flip in the Arctic is leading to the ‘point of no return’ of massive methane release. It may already be happening, and will almost certainly be irreversible, and then we are finished. And still the denialists screech on, aided and abetted, privileged in the MSM blogs and fomented and encouraged by the Right. Look about you, at politics, business, the MSM, and you will see the assassins of humanity, arrayed in their greed, their arrogance, their stupefying self-regard and their utter wickedness.
Ho, good one Mulga. I’m putting this in my Christmas Cards!
Cheers!
And a Merry Excess to you, too, Artful.
Merry Xcess.
As the planet melts down it seems the world’s economy is on the verge of doing something similar. It is interesting to contrast the failure of policy makers to deal with global warming with similar failures to deal with the world’s economy. This morning Krugman blogs:
“…the relentless wrong-headedness of the Europeans, their insistence on seeing their crisis as something it isn’t, and responding with actions that deepen the real crisis, has been a wonder to behold. In the 1930s policy makers had the excuse of ignorance; there was nobody to explain what was happening. Now, their actions amount to a willful disregard of Econ 101.”
Albeit the climate is of greater in importance.
Ecological collapse (climate destabilisation, ocean acidification, tropospheric ozone, biodiversity loss, general pollution etc) + resource depletion + economic implosion under gargantuan debt, widening inequality and massive social retrenchment and immiseration + geopolitical discord as the crumbling West attacks one country after another, equals DOOM. Yet the Right continue to deny it all, every last fact. They may be wicked and arrogant and destructive, but above all they are barking mad!
Though what if some over-achievers from another planet were cruising by and saw this mess we’ve made and said to themselves, “I’ll bet we could move in with those Earthlings for awhile and really make a positive difference!” So they started making plans and going on reconnaissance missions and the US sent drones to shoot them all down! Gosh dern foreigners!
Reminds me of a short story by Mack Reynolds called “Isolationist.” Although in the story the alien visitors were repulsed by one angry old farmer, who denounced them and waved a shotgun at them (long before “Get off my lawn!”), the result was much the same: they went away, and when they returned centuries later, the Earth was nearly lifeless.
Proceeding with that thinking. Perhaps those Aliens just dropped off a virus that has infected us “progressives” to enable us to “see the light” and pass the critter to others. The awareness does appear to be spreading like a virus.
Somebody I read back in the seventies (I think it was John C. Lilly) jokingly suggested that humans were an alien species’s way of sterilizing a planet for the purpose of preparing it for terraforming [sic]. Just drop a couple humans on a planet, and come back in 100,000 years – sterile! Not fast, but sure. Somehow it’s less funny than it was 40 years ago.
This may be the answer to Fermi’s paradox. It may be impossible for a species to achieve high technology without going through a period in which it has the capacity for destroying their own planet, without yet understanding this. Perhaps making it through this dangerous period is uncommon. I fear we will never know now.
Looking about at the types that our civilization, and capitalism in particular, ‘throws up’ (literally and metaphorically) as leaders, you’d bet that we will not find out what lies beyond this bottleneck. I mean, do you really think that the cosmos will miss the likes of Gingrich, Cameron, Obama, Rudd, Netanyahu, the Kochtopus or Rupert Murdoch et al?
Who needs aliens from outer space? We have stuff right here that could displace us.
Thermophilic methanotrophic bacteria have the enzyme, methane monooxygenase, to break down methane, and these bacteria thrive above 40 C.
Over time they could spread across the planet and evolve into something more complex. All they have to do is hang in there until we create a bigger habitat for them.
The bacteria aren’t as charming as Gary Larsen’s bears, plotting and scheming on how to take over human habitat, but they have some adaptations that could be in their favor.
Big solar subsidy cuts are going into effect in Britain December 12th ( http://www.nebusiness.co.uk/business-news/archive/2011/12/06/subsidy-cuts-take-the-shine-off-solar-energy-51140-29899927/ )
The idea of solar in Britain is kinda strange to me. But whatever – as long as its really clean and it works.
There was a reactor (shutdown? or purposeful electric isolation? in France) associated with grid issues in the windstorm in Scotland and at least two windmills failed – a large one rather specularity:
yikes – ( http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/onepercent/2011/12/why-did-a-wind-turbine-self-co.html )
( http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2011/12/08/the-big-storm-winds-reach-165mph-schools-shut-and-transport-in-chaos-as-scotland-takes-a-battering-86908-23620822/ )
( http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-09/battered-u-k-turbines-switch-on-after-halting-in-165-mph-winds.html )
Now although my expertise with aerofoils and airscrews is strictly with respect to aviation (and a slight detour into hydrodynamics of maritime propellers – the Haslar UK establishment carried out world leading research in this area – not that I can claim involvement in that) watching that wind turbine failure leads me to consider that the braking mechanism failed.
It’s slow rotation in such strong wind conditions does suggest that it was turning against the brake and causing a heat build up from friction, leading to fire.
Improved design and more oversight on operation and maintenance routines should be put in place.
Other nearby turbines in that array were quite stationary and thus survived. Although I did see video during the last twelve months of a wind turbine blade failing when it started to flex violently along its length.
I can imagine comment from the NIMBY (not in my back yard) brigade using this as a reason for not having wind turbines near housing. What they fail to consider is that some of the danger from energy production is thus placed near the end user.
Other forms of energy supply settle the dangers squarely on those populations near the extraction sites, as Alaskans and Amazon basin peoples, Nigerians and others know only too well.
Of course the transportation and processing of fossil fuel is attended by other hazards – also at some remove from most who benefit from this energy.
From just what I could see, this was an extreme event by any measure, and that 2 failed out of a total of ” 4,000 megawatts of wind turbines linked to the nation’s electricity network, enough to supply 8 million European homes. ”
165 mph winds eat everything, not just structures 350 feet tall.
I fear the coming chaos. There are so many signs that our modern civilization is in the end game.
Climate: so near to our goose being cooked.
Economics: declining marginal returns on almost everything. Read Joseph Tainter, although written years ago that was his definition of a society about to collapse. Although he seemed to think then that we would be immune.
The unsustainable growth in wealth discrepancy. The utterly poor will not be able to afford to buy the stuff that companies sell.
Politics: The passing of the amendments to the National Defence Authorisation Act. Overturn the Constitution, with so little notice in the media. But how else will you control those who have nothing to loose.
Peak energy: Cheap energy, powered our advances over the last two hundred years. The cheap stuff is almost gone.
Other environmental problems. The nitrogen cycle, eutrophication, fisheries collapses and so on.
The state of denial in many of our leaders over all of these problems any one of which could cause serious setbacks for mankind.
There are those who deny all those above problems, but still realise the sh## is going to hit the fan.
As much as I see that we need to face up to these problems, I also fear the impact of a general realisation.
“I also fear the impact of a general realisation.”
I’m not sure where you are going with that, though my mind is buzzing with both the imagery of bunkers, weapons, mass migration, and hoarding, along with counter images of portable housing, social flexibility and sharing.
What came to mind?
Good question Joan. Lifting the poor the world over out of poverty with manufactured solar, light, clean water and communication basic products on the one hand. That would give the west something to do to revive its consumer society with good karma, while at the same time placing a cash cow into the homes of billions. Once we are done, there is lots to do. Hell, perhaps we could even multi-task…
see lief’s comment above: the “general realisation’s” impact that doomsday and savage fear is exactly what he and i see as something positive that enables us to “see the light” and pass it on to others. “The awareness does appear to be spreading like a virus.” i call the vehicle for this is the occupy movement we need to support and join them..
6th extinction,
I didn’t feel fear, though maybe I should have. I’d like to hear back from Rabid Doomsayer, as the quote about “general realisation” was his/hers.
A whole lot of possibilities had came to mind, either as lief says, karma-improving, as well as the opposite.
To the extent that there is already a majority that accepts that climate change is occurring, but not necessarily grasping its pace or severity, answers could vary.
The Right, the powerful and their idolators amongst the lower ranks of the rabble, will turn very, very, violent. Look at what they have inflicted on the populace in countries like Chile, Iraq, El Salvador, Colombia, the Philippines etc, in their manic quest to dominate and stay in charge. Death-squads, torture, mass evictions of peasants, plus or minus massacres, refugees fleeing, resistance leading to ever great violence from above. The future has been played out for decades, centuries even, in ‘less happier lands’, mostly thanks to Western malevolence, which will shortly be coming home to roost.
Mulga
And this is in the one percent leader’s play-book as Palast points out in ‘Vulture’s Picnic’ and I am long enough in the tooth to have seen it played out several times. Indeed, as I see it, one of the ‘agent provocateurs’ is Alex Jones of Prison Planet operating out of Austin Texas. I wonder if Jones has had a wake up call from the Texas overheat.
The sound of Jones and Delingpole egging each other on is sickening.
Rabid Doomsayer:
“I also fear the impact of a general realization.”
Man, you just hit the existential nail with the cosmic hammer.
It reminds me of the dialogue “you can’t handle the truth”
I think a majority of people reading and commenting on this blog really feel a deep fear of what might happen when the general public realizes what we are heading for as a society, culture, civilization and spieces.
Maybe the folks who control the denier’s funding realize it too. We live in a country with more than one gun per person. The one percenters are doing everything they can to prevent the use of those 300 million guns by angry, starving people. Not out of civility, but out of fear of being part of the collateral damage.
This deserves a listen all the way through:
Youth Delegate Anjali Appadurai Speaks Truth to Power at Conclusion of COP17 in Durban.
9 December 2011
http://www.desmogblog.com/youth-delegate-anjali-appadurai-speaks-truth-power-conclusion-cop17-durban
Its really amazing. We live in a time when human civilization is teetering. Our small planet the 3rd from an average yellow main sequence star has choices now.
Do we evolve into more enlightened biological units, or succumb into greedy selfishness.
A Fascinating time to be alive- with a tiny but significant civilization on the edge of a cliff.
Peter I have seen the precipice described as ‘Seneca’s Cliff’ in acknowledgement of the Roman’s observation that it takes years of strenuous effort to build a civilization, but it unravels very quickly. We are already in the ‘Great Unraveling’, the tear-away slide down the slope with the jagged rocks looming right ahead. Forgive me, and pray like I do that I am wrong, but I cannot any longer agree with those who say that catastrophe is near, or inevitable. It has clearly already started.
Seneca -
Roman was lost when the son’s of senate no longer where willing to serve on the Danube.
What is wrong with journalism? Follow the money. This is PBS mind you.
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/12/10
The MSM are not ‘journalists’. They are propagandists for power.
What the movement needs is a SuperPac to support, not a candidate but a steady stream of advertising in all media in support of the science of AGW and to political action required to accomplish goals of returning climate stability. This recession has treated me harshly as it has others, but I could gladly contribute $20/month to such an effort. Small contributions from many of the concerned could add up to big bucks, hundreds of millions of bucks. Bypass the MSM. Become a powerful, hard to ignore voice this political season. Support no candidates, support the 99 percent, call out the bad guys, just the message clear and simple. Does anyone else think this idea might have merit?
Excellent idea David, because without a very large media budget & a long-term strategy for using it, the movement will not be politically competitive with right-wing coffers.
The Koch Bros are apparently prepared to dump $200m into the 2012 elections (can’t find the link.. ), but this may be only a fraction of Big Carbon’s political budget. What was 350′s income last year? $2-3m?
The question is who would form such a PAC? The “movement” has no recognized collaborative war room, but this could serve to spark that need. I don’t think there is much doubt that people will contribute $ if there is a transparent, well designed strategy to use it.
Who can form a Super PAC? Further ideas on implementing?
excellent idea! bring this question back next weekend, would you? my first thought was a climate progress/grist partnership. my second thought was jon stewart (thanks to stephen colbert’s super pac which has attracted many, many donors.) plus we all could use some humor, couldn’t we? who could provide it better than stewart?
I’d like to see a PR information packet that explains how much heat (watts) it takes to boil spaghetti water (4 quarts) for the eleven minutes it takes. Converted to pounds of coal it takes to produce that many watts.
But don’t forget to include the power generation losses, energy which is lost as heat to the environment.
The transmission losses in the grid as heat and sound.
The losses to the kitchen where this spaghetti is cooking. Heat and steam released to the kitchen.
Instead of a CO2 footprint, a pounds of coal footprint might shock folks a bit more. CO2 is an invisible gas. Everyone has seen coal.
catman306 -
The “coal train” out of the Powder River Basin, Wyoming is 40 miles long, it runs 24/7. 20 miles of loaded cars, 20 miles of empties.
The wet and dry – rough times for the US as Jeff Masters shows.
What was that about better crop yields Patrick Michaels?
Humans, like animals, are changing behavior as the climate changes.
http://www.good.is/post/humans-are-responding-to-climate-change-consciously-or-not/