Update
There’s a wide range of reaction to the Durban deal struck early this morning.
If you consider the important task of bringing developing countries like China and India into negotiations for some kind of legal emissions framework, while also implementing many of the priorities set in last year’s Cancun meeting, the outcome looks more positive. John Podesta, former chief of staff for the Clinton White House, and Chairman of the Board at the Center for American Progress (CAP) falls into this camp:
“China is in line to be the world’s biggest cumulative emitter by mid-century and as early as 2035. From the perspective of solving this problem we cannot get to any workable resolution unless we can trust the reductions China takes and have a roadmap to get them to strengthen their ambition.”
However, when viewed in the context of the dire climate problem, the Durban agreements simply don’t get us to where we need to be. Climate Action Tracker analyzed the impact of the frameworks agreed upon at COP17:
The agreement in Durban to establish a new body to negotiate a global agreement (Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action) by 2015 represents a major step forward. The Climate Action Tracker scientists stated, however, that the agreement will not immediately affect the emissions outlook for 2020 and has postponed decisions on further emission reductions. They warned that catching up on this postponed action will be increasingly costly.
The Climate Action Tracker estimates that global mean warming would reach about 3.5°C by 2100 with the current reduction proposals on the table. They are definitely insufficient to limit temperature increase to 2°C.
We’ll have more coming on the politics, implementation and science behind these targets in the coming days.
Update
5:00 am: Tweets of the morning from Christina Figueres, executive secretary of the UNFCCC:
After a grueling two days of negotiations with almost no rest, the international community gathered at COP 17 in Durban, South Africa was able to agree on an extension of the Kyoto Protocol, a process for negotiating internationally-binding emissions framework [note: I took out the word "target" here], and more details on an international fund for financing adaptation and mitigation projects.
Before the meeting even began, people were ready to write off the negotiations as a failure. With almost all major priorities outlined by negotiators coming into the meeting adopted, the international community has taken far bigger steps than anyone expected.
As Figueres pointed out, they are still not enough to get us on a sharply declining emissions path. And a number of environmental groups are heavily criticizing the package, saying it won’t get the job done. But it’s a decent start — and certainly far better than predicted coming into this meeting.
I’ve been updating this piece all day. But now I have to drop off and catch a plane. We’ll have plenty more analysis on how this will all be implemented soon. So stay with us.
Update
4:50 am: Text establishing a transitional committee for a $100 billion Green Fund was just adopted. That means the major priorities that were fought for at Durban were passed.
Update
4:45 am: The text for the Kyoto Protocol and the Long-term Cooperative Action were both adopted. Lots of clapping and cheering for adoption of the LCA — a 56-page document that outlines the frameworks for negotiations around an emissions reduction framework, an international fund for financing adaptation and mitigation, and a technology transfer program.
Update
4:00 am: COP 17 has adopted text that would set a path for negotiating binding emissions reductions beyond 2020.
Leading into this plenary, there were major disagreements between the Europeans and the Indians on the language around establishing a new negotiations process for binding targets. At issue was the following text:
Decides that the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action shall complete its work as early as possible but no later than 2015 in order to adopt this protocol, legal instrument or legal outcome at the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties and for it to come into effect and be implemented[.]
India and other developing countries supported the term “legal outcome,” which other players – particularly the EU – had a problem with. The Indians threatened to open the entire text of the Long-term Cooperative Action document up if the term was stripped out. During a ten minute break from the meeting, it was decided that the term be changed to “legal force,” which the EU and India agreed to.
Update
3:45 am: The meeting of the COP has begun. “Time is not on our side,” exclaimed Nkoana-Mashabane
Update
Maite Nkoana-Mashabane: “I am making a humble, humble appeal” to work together to put this package together at 2:45 in the morning to “save the UNFCCC process.” This is about more than a climate bill. This is about saving what the UNFCCC has worked for.
Update
2:30 am: We are still in a stock taking session before we get into the negotiations to actually hash out the text. We’ve been hearing from a variety of countries expressing support for and concerns about the text being considered. But we haven’t even considered it yet. COP 17 president Maite Nkoana-Mashabane has made a plea for countries to stop making statements, but it looks like there are a handful of countries left.
It may be late, but many of the speeches — particularly those from China and India — have been somewhat dramatic and impassioned. They’ve certainly kept people awake.
This isn’t just overtime. This is double sudden-death overtime. This is far and away the longest COP ever — and the negotiations are far from over. Expect a few more sparks to fly.
Update
11:45: If you want a sense of the frustration and angst here in Durban, follow the #COP17 feed on twitter.
After four and a half hours of discussion, the Kyoto Protocol and the Long-Term Cooperative Action documentation will be forwarded on to the COP for consideration. The COP plenary will take place in 30 minutes.
Before recommending the passage of the LCA, the chair stressed there’s “a great deal of disappointment” with the text, sounding almost like he wasn’t going to pass it on for consideration.
U.S. Special Envoy Todd Stern expressed his support for the LCA, saying “this is obviously not a perfect agreement…and of course it can’t be.” But delaying it will “threaten to unravel” the UNFCCC process. Even though many people would like to see the document moved forward, Stern received scant applause — a sign of frustration from the belaugered crowd with the U.S. stance in the meeting.
Update
The sessions are underway to discuss the various pieces of text developed in negotiations today. You can see the text here, and watch negotiations here.
Update
6:50 pm: Opening of the plenary lasted about 5 minutes. You can watch the upcoming negotiations here. A statement from South Africa’s Minister of Foreign Relations Nkoana-Mashabane: “We cannot let the perfect be the enemy of the good….The world is watching.”
They promised the documents would be coming as quickly as possible.
Meanwhile, outside the Ministerial meeting, a European Diplomat leaving the meeting: “Nobody wants to close anything until they close everything. The way this is going, yes” we will be here all night.
Update
5:40 pm: Chief U.S. diplomat Todd Stern just left the negotiating room. A few reporters went up to ask questions, thinking that something had happened. Turns out, he was just going to the bathroom.
People are still sitting, standing, pacing around the convention center — anxiously waiting for diplomats to strike a deal. No major news to report, other than the meeting hasn’t blown up yet.
We heard constant back and forth speculation that parties were calling for an extension of the COP 17 meeting. But we’re now hearing that we could be closing in on some sort of compromise that includes a legal instrument for future international targets. Please note: that is unconfirmed. Speculation is running wild here.
There’s an informal ministerial meeting currently underway. An open plenary is supposedly planned for 6.
The best outcome, of course, would be an agreement by China to commit to negotiations for a legal framework or for binding targets. That would bring the U.S. on board, which has held out until developing countries like India and China consider emission reduction targets. If that were the case, it would also encourage the Europeans to support an extension of the Kyoto Protocol — they said they’d only agree to a Kyoto extension if a roadmap toward a binding treaty were formed.
There are many balls still in the air. Will we we catch them? Or let them fall to the ground?
Update
3:30 pm: A coalition of youth from the political-action organization Avaaz are outside the conference hall chanting “don’t block the talks” — referencing the U.S., which they have hammered on throughout the negotiations.
Kudos to Kate Sheppard of Mother Jones for providing the picture via twitter. She clearly has a better cell phone camera.
Update
2:50 pm: Things could get very tricky in the final hours of negotiations. Some ministers have already left. Others are trying to re-book flights at the last minute. I’ve overheard from a couple people — including Samantha Smith of WWF International quoted below — that ministers from developing countries are finding it difficult and cost-prohibitive to re-book flights.
There’s an informal ministerial meeting scheduled for 5 pm, which leaves very little time to get through all of the major priorities at hand.
Update
2:20 pm: In the oddest moment of the day, a fake negotiating text was sent around to delegates this morning, burning up the last remaining hours of negotiating time during today’s emergency negotiations. No one is quite sure if it was a mistake, or an attempt to sabotage the talks.
Rumors have been floating around all morning, but no one could verify that there was actually a fake text. Fiona Harvey and John Vidal of the Guardian were able to actually get their hands on the text:
If the text was a forgery, it was a poor one: it was headed with the wrong date (Friday 10 December, instead of Saturday 10 December) and was printed in the wrong typeface (Arial, instead of Times New Roman) for an official document.
The president of the conference, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, was forced to issue an official denial of the text, but only after the bizarre episode had wasted valuable time.
Update
1:20: Workers begin disassembling the conference center to prepare for the next event before any agreement at COP has been reached. Will we get kicked out before something happens?
Update
12:48 pm: Samantha Smith, Leader of the Global Climate and Energy Initiative for WWF International, thinks we’ll leave Durban “with some of the keys unresolved and not very strong text.” Rumors of an extended meeting of COP 17 have been floating around since last night, but are still unconfirmed.
“You can lead them to water, but you can’t make them drink,” says Smith.
Meanwhile, ministers from various countries are reportedly trickling out of the conference hall, leaving for home.
Update
12:30 pm: Jake Schmidt, international policy director for NRDC, sums up the mood at COP right now: “Everything is fuzzy at this point. We are close to a good move forward, but some key countries are still blocking. A deal has to be reached quickly or the talks in Durban could crater.”
Update
12:05 pm: best tweet yet from today:
Update
11:50 am: New text from for the Long-term Cooperative Action track has been released. It outlines a general agreement to “work towards identifying a global goal for substantially reducing emissions by 2050″ that will be considered at the 18th session. In other words, they are working on creating a new track to establish any new mitigation targets. We call this the ad hoc working group “to be named later.” Also, no agreement on financing for REDD. It’s already approaching noon, so the window for hashing out the substance of the document is closing.
Update
10:20 am: The plenary session has been delayed, with no schedule and no new text released as of yet. This likely means that the negotiators are hashing out details in hopes that they can go into the plenary ready to make a grand bargain.
9:30 am: Negotiators were meeting until after 5 am Durban time this morning. Late last night, new text came out for the Green Climate Fund and the Kyoto Protocol. These are still being worked out. Also being considered is the possibly of a framework for starting negotiations on emissions targets — whether “legally binding,” a looser “legal framework” or a new protocol. The talks have spilled over for an open, high-level session Saturday, and will likely go all day.
The next high-level plenary was set to start at 10 am Durban time, and we’re expecting 5-6 hours of session. Some are speculating whether the parties will be able to agree on text before the end of the day.
Many are concerned that the meeting could blow up, or we could simply run out of time. If the U.S. doesn’t agree to a process that ends in a new binding agreement, the Europeans may pull out of Kyoto. If that happens, developing countries could block some of the other important frameworks like the Green Climate Fund (which is now mostly agreed to). Anything could happen at this point.
For an overview of how things may play out, check out Andrew Light’s analysis from last night. Not much has changed since.
If you want to read any of the new text, you can find it on the right-hand column of the UNFCCC page. If you want to watch the plenary online, you can find it here (Baobab).
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Language Intelligence: Lessons on persuasion from Jesus, Shakespeare, Lincoln, and Lady Gaga
Appreciate the updates but, as critically important as this meeting was, I think most observers would agree it was doomed from the start. Excuse my cynicism. Our species may not be capable of the perspective and insight necessary to do what is necessary at this point. Let us experience maybe a few more horrific climate events, tragically affecting tens of millions of people.
Owing to the global triumph of capitalism, achieved through military aggression, colonialism, imperialism and mass murder, and brutal, one-sided, never-ending class war in the Western homelands, the very worst people are in total control on this planet. We euphemistically call them ‘the Right’, and they are the moral, spiritual and intellectual detritus of our species. Unfortunately their readiness to utilise violence, without remorse, without compassion, without conscience, has placed them atop the human dung-heap.
These creatures do not care how many climate disasters occur, how many ‘useless eaters’ in the poor world starve, drown or die of disease. Unless and until we stop kidding ourselves as to what it is in reality that we face, what type of creatures it is who have deliberately created such a world and who will do anything, no matter how vile, to maintain their power and position, we will be unable to take even the first steps towards salvation.
Well said, Mumblebrain. Couldn’t agree more.
The culture we have will continue, until it it no longer provides profits- how long that will be remains to me seen.
The capability to produce profit is pretty open-ended. It just requires greater and greater levels of exploitation of and expropriation from, others. The global parasite class, having no consciences and no qualms over immiserating others, will produce profit to the bitter end, and by God, it is going to be bitter.
Most focus on the immediate empirically data that our five senses are confronted with daily. In the grand scheme of things, these are usually only the symptoms of even greater concerns. We are entering a time unprecedented in the history of the world. “No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it is not the same river and he is not the same man.” ~ Aristotle .. Eight barrels of oil equal a ton. We burn more coal than oil. We have been doing this on a massive scale since the beginning of coal mining and oil extraction. That’s a lot of weighty matter turned into relative weightless gases. We continue to remove vast forested areas and reduce them to relative weightless gases. The Earths magnetic pole is on the move for the first time in 700,000 years. It’s moving 40 miles a year toward Russia. Everything including our planet must find it’s gravitational balance on the gravitational plane. The scale of the situation is grave. By extraction and depletion, not only are we befouling our habitat in unacceptable ways, we are gravitationally displacing ourselves on our axis, and in the greater universe. Will Durban Climate Talks Leave us on the Wrong Side of History? Will anyone be here in the future to tell our story. ~ Reginald Cottle
Good point Reginald, not only are we gasifing fossils and forests but ice as well as we convert multi-billions of tons each year to water and on to vapor.
It’s now Saturday 8:20pm in Durban, are there no updates as to whether the talks are continuing?
We’ve mentioned the fact that they’ve been in negotiations. They’ve been in talks all day. And continue.
Nature doesn’t have to give us anything, not five years for more procrastination, not anything. The usual negotiating skills don’t apply. I hope the people in Durban keep going through this “sudden death overtime” as folks say in basketball. The clock is ticking.
In the end, this whole thing is a farce. Everyone in that room knows one key fact – that the American Tea Party holds a veto over any deal made. All else is trivial to the negotations.
America is the problem, and should be ashamed.
Stephen, you’re doing a great job getting out clear information a lot of people want to know, in a chaotic situation. Thanks so much!
Kudos to Stephen and CP for hanging in there and getting the information to us. I’ve been watching this all night and coverage elsewhere has been lacking.
Stephen,
Thank you so much for your updates! I’ve been checking back to this page frantically all day. Thanks for the good work!
The latest update shows progress, and thanks to attendees and delegates for their determination.
Implicit in the latest announcement is that Kyoto precedents will drive emissions reductions. The US didn’t sign Kyoto, and Russia, Canada, and China are now on board, on the outside looking in. Their own oil and coal oligarchies have succeeded in blocking progress through deceptive positions in obvious Orwellian language, trying to have it both ways. Saving millions of lives while placating oil and coal corporations requires more contortions than either language or reality can accomodate.
It’s time for sticks, not just carrots. Have the negotiators agreed on economic penalties for those countries who flaunt the need to salvage a livable climate?
Mike, I spent most of the morning here in Oz listening to the direct feed from the COP and some of it was riveting stuff despite the quaint, almost laughable, apparently diplomatic protocol of not naming the country you are talking about.
I have not read the final docs but there was a heap of material tabled relating to detailed monitoring and verification. This was insisted upon by the LCDs and countries like China who made the point that they had done more to reduce emissions than many of the developed countries who had made almost no effort to reach their voluntary targets.
So while I cannot directly answer your question about sanctions, it would appear that the days of the rich countries acting with impunity are numbered. It may not be enough but the subliminal or emotional tone of the informal stocktaking session left me in no doubt that the rich countries have just about run out of free lunches. They just got cornered. Another few major disasters around Asia, Oceania, Afric and S. America should cement this in the next year or two, ME
I guess no one there really listened to Anjali Appadurai. I hope it goes viral. It reminded me of the speech given by Severn Suzuki at the UN Earth Conference in 1992.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZsDliXzyAY
So little has happened that needed to happen and so much has distracted us from what is essential.
polar bear cannibalism – photos and video
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2071638/Polar-bears-Cannibal-pictures-prove-theyll-eat-bear-cubs.html
I read the vague news stories about an agreement and decided to look at the proposal language.
I REALLY HOPE I had the wrong document. What a disaster, a complete joke the proposal I read was.
It would at best probably make things worse.
So …
So John Podesta says this:
“China is in line to be the world’s biggest cumulative emitter by mid-century and as early as 2035. From the perspective of solving this problem we cannot get to any workable resolution unless we can trust the reductions China takes and have a roadmap to get them to strengthen their ambition.”
My oh my oh my.
The biggest, singular, and necessary job that John Podesta and CAP should take on, with respect to climate change, should be to INSIST that the Obama Administration and the United States “strengthen their ambition” and commit to a roadmap — better yet, a real plan, and actions — to reduce our emissions that WE can trust and that others around the world can trust.
My goodness, how we focus on other countries, and not on our own!
I find it interesting, and yet another new (and distracting) statistic, that this is mentioned: China WILL be (by some year) the largest CUMULATIVE emitter.
China WILL be. But we (the U.S.) ARE, today.
Someone ought to remind John, if (and I say if) he doesn’t know, that by far the best way for the U.S. to credibly (and ultimately effectively) ask and get other countries to do things is to DO THOSE THINGS OURSELVES. If he understands that point, his understanding isn’t revealed in the comments quoted above.
My view is that John and CAP should be at the forefront of loudly demanding that the Obama Administration get its own act together regarding climate change. If the Administration DOES do that, soon, so be it, and some congrats all around will be in order. If the Administration doesn’t do that, on the other hand, John and CAP should make that failure known, not be reluctant to talk about it, and be fulling willing to host discussions (for example, on CP) that genuinely point out other alternatives. IF CP is about successfully addressing climate change, and is not corralled into some sort of implicit but unwarranted allegiance to the present Administration and the Dems, then CP and CAP should be going full blast by now to prompt something to actually HAPPEN! Instead, what we see is this: a sort of mainly passive unspoken acquiescence to the idea that “well anyhow, the Dems would be better than the Repubs, so we’re stuck”. And where does that cause our focus to go, when we apparently feel the need to applaud: to noting that China WILL be the greatest CUMULATIVE emitter (whereas the U.S. is already that).
I would like to see some excellent and completely honest analysis on this subject: why the U.S. is not EAGERLY LEADING the effort to reduce emissions and address global warming, beginning with and including our own emissions, and why the Obama Administration is not taking that stance, and WHAT CAP CAN and SHOULD DO to get the Administration to get its act together, and what we can all do (to look for other leaders) if the Administration doesn’t get its act together.
Hearing that we should see the COP 17 deal as progress, (because China WILL BE the greatest cumulative emitter in a couple decades), even though the deal postpones the implementation of any real commitments for years from now, and even though the U.S. has been and is dragging its feet — and hearing this FROM the person who should be leading the charge to get the Obama Admin to DO SOMETHING, FOR GOODNESS SAKE — is (I’ll put it this way) too bad. At this point, John Podesta and CAP should be among the first people to throw pies in the faces of the U.S. negotiators and the Administration, figuratively speaking, regarding climate change, and to push for what NEEDS to be DONE. Period.
AND, how are we (the reading audience) even to begin to “comprehend” and weigh this so-called commitment to spend four years developing a legal framework of commitments that (at that point) might or might not be agreed to, or if it “has to” be agreed to, might contain whatever bland commitments are necessary to gain that agreement? Isn’t this just a bunch of WORDS, to meet again?
I feel — more than ever — that we are probably witnessing an Emperor with no clothes (the COP process itself? the Obama Administration?) and that our think-tanks and progressive organizations cannot bear, or are not willing, to point that out and to actually start talking about the things that must be done differently.
I will probably be dead by the time that China becomes the single largest cumulative emitter. In the meantime, my country is. So, we — and I — owe the world and ourselves action NOW. Anything less lacks credibility and is based more on excuses and diversions than anything else.
Yes, I would like to understand the present deal clearly. Of course I would. (Something tells me that doing so will probably require a grammarian and an historian to tell us what the words actually mean and what, given the way history works, we might be able to expect about whether anything really comes of them as time advances and as governments come and go.) But, I would also like to discuss and understand what the Admin SHOULD do NOW, what CAP SHOULD do NOW, and what we can and should do NOW, to put the U.S. into a state of honesty, credibility, responsibility, and effective action, NOW.
We have apparently lost sight of what real leadership is — as opposed to political tactics. Too bad.
Be Well,
Jeff
A really big problem is the brainwashing of Americans, even the best and most decent, with the poison of ‘American exceptionalism’, ‘Manifest Destiny’ and all the other familiar jingoistic slogans. China will NEVER be the cumulative emissions ‘champion’ because by 2035 it will have de-carbonised, because they are making the effort, unlike America, where, as Bush I declared ‘The American Way of Life’ (extreme energy and material profligacy in the service of profit) is non-negotiable’. The USA doesn’t lead the world anymore, certainly not by moral example. It orders the lesser breeds about, and, ominously, most of them now refuse to follow orders-certainly the Chinese will not be bullied.
So far I’ve seen politicians and MSM reptiles saying it’s a great deal, if only a start, and environmentalists and scientists saying it’s a crock (as you ‘septics’['Septic tank-Yank] say). And, the invariable experience being that the rich countries do not meet their promised obligations,which are PR stunts only, and generally cheat and connive when it comes to implementation (‘Western moral values’ don’t you know), I’d say that this is another milestone on the road to perdition.