Chinese Scientists: Climate Change Threatens Food Security
Other stories below: Valero Energy is working overtime to stop climate legislation; Sea Level rise poses big threat to Washington, DC
China report spells out “grim” climate change risks
Global warming threatens China’s march to prosperity by cutting crops, shrinking rivers and unleashing more droughts and floods, says the government’s latest assessment of climate change, projecting big shifts in how the nation feeds itself.
The warnings are carried in the government’s “Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change,” which sums up advancing scientific knowledge about the consequences and costs of global warming for China — the world’s second biggest economy and the biggest emitter of greenhouse gas pollution.
Global warming fed by greenhouse gases from industry, transport and shifting land-use poses a long-term threat to China’s prosperity, health and food output, says the report. With China’s economy likely to rival the United States’ in size in coming decades, that will trigger wider consequences.
“China faces extremely grim ecological and environmental conditions under the impact of continued global warming and changes to China’s regional environment,” says the 710-page report, officially published late last year but released for public sale only recently.
… Assuming no measures to counter global warming, grain output in the world’s most populous nation could fall from 5 to 20 percent by 2050, depending on whether a “fertilization effect” from more carbon dioxide in the air offsets losses, says the report.
But that possible fall can be held in check by improved crop choice and farming practices, as well as increased irrigation and fertilizer use.
China is the world’s biggest consumer of cereals and has increasingly turned to foreign suppliers of corn and soy beans.
The report was written by teams of scientists supervised by government officials, and follows up on a first assessment released in 2007. It does not set policy, but offers a basis of evidence and forecasts that will shape policy.
RISING COSTS OF GROWING FOOD
“Generally, the observed impacts of climate change on agriculture have been both positive and negative, but mainly negative,” Lin Erda, one of the chief authors of the report, told Reuters.
“But steadily, as the temperatures continue to rise, the negative consequences will be increasingly serious,” said Lin, an expert on climate change and farming at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
“For a certain length of time, people will be able to adapt, but costs of adaptation will rise, including for agriculture.”
Under different scenarios of greenhouse gas levels and their effects, by the end of this century China’s average atmospheric temperature will have risen by between 2.5 degrees and 4.6 degrees Celsius above the average for 1961-1990.
Water, either too much or too little, lies at the heart of how that warming could trip up China’s budding prosperity.
“Climate change will lead to severe imbalances in China’s water resources within each year and across the years. In most areas, precipitation will be increasingly concentrated in the summer and autumn rainy seasons, and floods and droughts will become increasingly frequent,” says the report.
“Without effective measures in response, by the latter part of the 21st century, climate change could still constitute a threat to our country’s food security,” it says.
Under one scenario of how global warming will affect water availability, by 2050 eight of mainland China’s 31 provinces and provincial-status cities could face severe water shortages — meaning less than 500 cubic meters per resident — and another 10 could face less dire chronic shortages.
“Since the 1950s, over 82 percent of glaciers have been in a state of retreat, and the pace has accelerated since the 1990s,” the report says of China’s glaciers in Tibet and nearby areas that feed major rivers.
The “new energy economy” got a boost last week when OCI Solar Power announced a move to our sunny city to manufacture solar components and produce up to 400 megawatts of solar power for CPS Energy. “San Antonio’s vision is to occupy a space right at the intersection of environmental stewardship and job creation,” said Mayor Julián Castro at a press conference behind La Villita Assembly Hall.
Castro and his predecessor, Phil Hardberger, have called for a bold push into the carbon-free economy to prepare South Texas for a future where global warming finally forces caps on greenhouse gas emissions. While local leaders try to stay a step ahead of the new energy game, San Antonio’s Valero Energy Corp. and Tesoro Corporation are using political spending and litigation to lead an historic battle against state and federal policies that threaten the old energy establishment.
Study: global warming related sea level rise poses big threat to Washington, D.C.
Global warming-related sea level rise constitutes a major threat to the nation’s capital, with the potential to inundate national monuments, museums, military bases, and parts of the Metro Rail system during the next several decades and beyond, according to a recent study published in the journal “Risk Analysis.” The study helps localize a problem that is more typically discussed at the global level, and makes clear that public officials must make decisions in the near-term in order to minimize future losses.
Considering the city’s history, it should come as no surprise to learn that Washington, D.C. is vulnerable to sea level rise. The National Mall and Foggy Bottom were originally marshland, and the area between the Anacostia River and I-295 used to be open water. What is rather disturbing and less well known, though, is just how vulnerable D.C. is to even minor amounts of sea level rise, which according to some studies is virtually guaranteed as the amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to climb, temperatures rise, and mountain glaciers and ice caps melt.
For the Washington area, no snow in sight in a winterless winter
This has been a winterless winter, a season that can’t make it past lunchtime without busting out in a springtime melody. Every time cold weather shows up, it catches a flight back north the next day. Snow this year is a thing of myth and legend.
Tuesday has been typical of Winter 2012 here: Chilly and damp in the morning, but Frisbee weather by mid-afternoon. The calendar insists, implausibly, that it is Jan. 17.
This is the heart of meteorological winter, experts claim. The coldest period in the Washington area is from Jan. 12 to Jan. 23, according to the National Climatic Data Center’s 30-year “climate normals.”
But abnormality is apparently this year’s normal: The National Weather Service’s outlook shows more of the same snowless weather through the rest of January.
Rising home insurance rates point to climate change
Insurance companies don’t care if you believe in climate change or not: Your premiums are going up anyhow.
NPR reported Monday that home insurance premiums are going up across the board in response to the record number of tornadoes, floods, fires, blizzards and other heavy weather that hit the country in 2011.
The piece features insurance executives at major firms such as Allstate and State Farm saying they are raising rates as much as 10%.
The president of the Insurance Information Institute, a New York-based industry association, says the weather caused about $35 billion of insured damages last year in the U.S. in events that caused a total of $70 billion in economic losses.
New Gas Economy Rules Generate Wide Support
Writing new regulations that will require cars and trucks to have significantly higher fuel economy by 2025 prompted years of fighting among automakers, environmentalists, regulators and consumer groups.
But now that the standards have been proposed, nearly everyone involved in the process is on board with the results, as a public hearing held Tuesday in Detroit showed.
More than 90 people who spoke throughout the day asserted that the stricter fuel economy requirements would create jobs, reduce oil consumption, create cleaner air and save drivers money, all while helping automakers increase their profits.
“We’re celebrating something that has taken a long time to reach,” said Representative John D. Dingell, a Michigan Democrat who helped quash previous efforts to impose higher mileage standards. “There appears to be no significant opposition amongst responsible persons.”
Previous in TP Climate Progress
Language Intelligence: Lessons on persuasion from Jesus, Shakespeare, Lincoln, and Lady Gaga
[Wallpaper] Natural Arch in Glacier http://climateforce.net/2012/01/18/wallpaper-natural-arch-in-glacier/
San Antonio’s Valero Energy Corp … duh… should start the transition to a clean energy future. There are no other options.
WARNING = IMPORTANT!
Michael Alley of Penn State University talks about giving better presentations and Powerpoints. http://www.nsf.gov/news/mmg/mmg_disp.cfm?med_id=71558&from=mmg
Hey, I can vouch for that style of presentation. I have looked at that material from Penn State before and have used it in my presentations (and encouraged others to use that style).
That same group out of PSU has a Powerpoint file that gives good examples of the “assertion-evidence” presentation model.
Why the United Steelworkers Support Clean Energy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9790Nk58Ddw&feature=g-all-u&context=G28bfed8FAAAAAAAAOAA
I just notice this video is from CP, :D
Fast forward…
Growing Your Own Food http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-P__nUHVK4&feature=fvsr
Last week i posted a blog post about the Daisyworld model (which is based on general albedo). Today NASA released a video about Daisyworld… updated post can be accessed here http://climateforce.net/2012/01/13/the-daisyworld-model/
Brisbane climate change study warns of many years of life lost
January 18, 2012
Queensland University of Technology (QUT), in collaboration with CSIRO, has conducted a world-first study into the potential impact climate change will have on ‘years of life lost’ in Brisbane. http://www.physorg.com/news/2012-01-brisbane-climate-years-life-lost.html
In 2012, Let’s Resolve to Fight Climate Change Together
At the start of the new year, many of us ponder ways to better ourselves and our lives. This year, let’s resolve to fight. Fight against a crisis that, if unaddressed, will have catastrophic and irreversible impacts on communities across the globe. Let’s resolve to fight climate change and to challenge the corporations and policymakers that have led us into the climate crisis while protecting their, not our, interests. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ilana-solomon/climate-change_b_1213091.html
You and stephen need to watch this. Note the Germans describing COAL as their NEW “bridge fuel.”
It also mentions China’s commitment to new reactors.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/nuclear-aftershocks/
There is a lot of noise here with the german electricity…
Germany had to import electricity, because of problems to transfer the energy generated from wind, to the customers. The bandwidth of the transmission lines can at teh moment not hold the capacities. The coal plans which are talked about have been in planing stage since before the nuclear opt-out.
I did not looked much more into this but watch now the movie..
PRINCETON — To some, the subject of global warming is a recent phenomenon, but Princeton University physicist Issac Held has been researching it since the ’70s.
Princeton physicist wins prestigious climate-change research prize
Held’s research of atmospheric circulation systems and the role of water vapor in climate change, compiled at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory, has earned him a $510,000 top prize in the annual BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Climate Change Category.
Helm studies the movement of water in the atmosphere and the way it influences climate change.
His findings on atmospheric conditions spell a dire future for the Mediterranean. He predicted that if CO2 emissions are not curtailed, temperatures in the Mediterranean could increase by 3 degrees within a century. This would mean a major reduction in rainfall.
“We expect precipitation to decrease maybe 5 percent to 10 percent for every degree of warming,” Held said.
“Isaac Held’s work is fundamental to describing and analyzing these impacts and thus is a crucial foundation for policy discussions of the defining challenge of our century,” said Nicholas Stern, of the London School of Economics, and winner of the BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award in Climate Change 2010.
Held, 63, was born in a German refugee camp. At age 4, he immigrated to the United States with his brother, father and mother – an Auschwitz survivor. “I have no memory of it,” he said.
He studied in the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program at Princeton University, where he completed his Ph.D. in 1976.
“I read about global warming, and it looked like a fascinating problem,” he said. http://www.nj.com/mercer/index.ssf/2012/01/princeton_physicist_wins_prest.html
Meh, wikipedia is in blackout mode today, otherwise i would have looked up his wiki page too.
“Some states have introduced education standards requiring teachers to defend the denial of man-made global warming. A national watchdog group says it will start monitoring classrooms.”
Could read in this case… ‘some states have introduced standards requiring insurers to exclude man-made global warming costs when calculating premiums….’
” Assuming no measures to counter global warming, grain output in the world’s most populous nation could fall from 5 to 20 percent by 2050″
The problem with all these studies is that they don’t really take in to effect the rate of feedback and the chaotic state change effects the warming the ‘system’.
Things are starting to collapse and will be critical by around 2020.
Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 2 – an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova http://www.skepticalscience.com/arctic-methane-outgassing-e-siberian-shelf-part2.html
We have to prepare for a possible abrupt methane release, literally anytime.
SkS: With respect to future events, in your EGU 2008 abstract it is stated that “we consider release of up to 50Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage as highly possible for abrupt release at any time”. This represents a colossal quantity of gas. How quickly could such a release occur and what would be the most likely mechanism?
NS: I believe that the non-gradual (massive, abrupt) emission mode exists for a variety of reasons. First, wherever in the World Ocean such methane outgassing releases from decaying hydrates occur, they appear to be torch-like with emission rates that change by orders of magnitude within just a few minutes. Note that there was no additional seal such as permafrost to restrict emissions for hundreds of thousands of years anywhere in the World Ocean. Imagine what quantity of methane has been stored beneath sub-sea permafrost if even now, when the permeability of permafrost is still limited, the amount of methane annually escaping from the ESAS is equal to that escaping from the entire World Ocean. Another important factor is that conversion of hydrates to free gas leads to a significant increase in the gas pressure. This highly-pressurized gas exerts a geological power that creates its own gas migration pathways (so-called “chimneys” within sediments). It is even more important to understand that the nature of the permafrost transition from frozen to unfrozen is such that this physical process is not always gradual: the phase transition itself appears to be a relatively short, abrupt transformation, like opening a valve. Remember that the gas “pipeline” is highly pressurized. There could be several different triggers for massive releases: a seismic or tectonic event, endogenous seismicity caused by sediments subsiding pursuant to hydrate decay, or sediment sliding on the shelf break; the shelf slope is very steep, and the sedimentation rates are among the highest in the ESAS. As for the amount that could possibly be released, this estimate represents only a small fraction of the total amount of methane believed to be stored in the ESAS (3.5% of 1400 Gt). Because these emissions occur from extremely shallow water, methane could reach the atmosphere with almost no alteration; the time scale of such releases would largely depend on the spatial distribution and capacity of the gas migration pathways.
They’re mad – completely out to lunch! Lost the plot! Read this item on BP’s totally-out of-touch-with-reality “Energy Report” in today’s Guardian!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/18/shale-oil-gas-us-energy-self-sufficient
In this alternative universe, peak oil, global warming, ocean acidification etc. simply don’t exist. Every day in every way things are getting better and better.
Or have I missed something? Can any company or group of human beings really be that irresponsible and uncaring?
Thanks to you and Reuter’s for a strong dose of reality from China.
Paul.
Some hard facts… Canada with drawing from Kyoto.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/12/16/f-climate-provinces.html
Major winter storm pounds Pacific Northwest http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2015
Strong winds and heavy snow have overloaded fragile snow layers weakly attached to old crusts and produced increasingly large and sensitive avalanches. Field reports late Tuesday already indicated lots of natural and human triggered slides ranging from about 1 to 3 feet deep. Avalanche warnings already in effect for high danger…and with warming…further winds and additional heavy to very heavy snow…some quite dense…avalanche activity should become larger and more severe on Wednesday. This should lead to extreme danger above about 5000 feet with increasing high danger below. Due to very dangerous conditions getting worse…back country travel should be avoided Wednesday.
At sea, the National Weather Service has issued a hurricane force wind warning for the Southern Oregon coastal waters. Hurricane force winds of 70 – 75 mph, gusting to 90 mph, are expected today, with waves of 22 – 25 feet.
Jeff Masters
A ferocious winter storm is pounding the Pacific Northwest, bringing heavy snow, flooding rains, and winds near hurricane force over coastal waters. The snow is falling in earnest in Seattle this morning, where 3 – 5 inches are expected. The storm’s heaviest snows have fallen in Southwest Washington, just north of Portland, Oregon, where Toutle, Washington received 18″ as of 6 am PST this morning. The storm also brought 2 inches of snow to Portland, Oregon overnight. The wet, heavy snow brought down numerous trees and power lines, causing power outages to 30,000 people. Portland averages just 6.5 inches of snow per year. Very heavy snows of 1 – 3 feet have fallen in the Cascade Mountains east of Seattle, causing extreme avalanche danger.
Twin Cities -
* New record for latest subzero on record at MSP. Old record was January 18, 2002. We should break that by one day; subzero weather likely Thursday morning.
http://www.startribune.com/blogs/137483493.html
The TRMM satellite saw 8.10 inches in 24 hrs. with this one :
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/480-homeless-heavy-rains-mozambique-15384348
Ground stations -
http://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/limpopo/lowveld-pounded-by-heavy-rains-1.1215638
Amazon Basin shifting to carbon emitter
http://www.physorg.com/news/2012-01-amazon-basin-shifting-carbon-emitter.html
Apologies if this is a repost. Mexico’s Tarahumara suffering from (presumably) same drought affecting Texas:
http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/17/10176073-famine-sparks-suicide-rumors-among-mexicos-tarahumara
“There has always been hunger in these hills,” Gasca said. “There have always been climate cycles, but these cycles are getting more frequent and more severe.”
RealClimate Oddities http://climateforce.net/2012/01/18/realclimate-oddities/
Huff Post calls Archer’s posts “downplaying” too.
Archer’s thinking makes sense, if you’re not planning on doing anything about the climate. The more you are, the more his downgrading of leaking methane to ‘Nothing’ by taking an absurdly long view becomes quite weird. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-currier/methane-in-the-twilight-z_1_b_1207619.html#postComment
RealClimate is in denial for whatever reason.
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Bark+beetles+climate+change+future/5920382/story.html#ixzz1jquA2aYT
Climate vigilantes: How to get real facts into media coverage of climate http://grist.org/climate-change/climate-vigilantes-how-to-get-real-facts-into-media-coverage-of-climate/
Let’s inject some of this stuff!
Club of Rome
Implications of Arctic Permafrost Thaw
http://climateforce.net/2012/01/19/club-of-rome-implications-of-arctic-permafrost-thaw/
This scenario is a Game Changer! A scenario which necessitate mandatory actions. Denial is a national security Threat!
Time to get creative
For 2012, Vivienne Westwood mixes clothes and climate change http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/alltherage/2012/01/milan-fashion-week-vivienne-westwood-man-aw12-mixes-clothes-and-climate-change.html
The (Solar) Light at the End of the Tunnel
http://climateforce.net/2012/01/19/the-solar-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel/
Methane in the Twilight Zone (Second Episode)
The most important paper on climate change in quite a while was published two days ago in Science (Shindell et al, 2012: read about it here). http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-currier/methane-in-the-twilight-z_1_b_1207619.html#postComment
Brilliant written, must read!
The central theme of Archer’s play, twisted like the plot of a Shakespearean comedy, is this: since methane is oxidized in the atmosphere by photochemical reactions to carbon dioxide (and water vapor), and the carbon in that carbon dioxide essentially lasts forever, bouncing around for 100,000 years, even a very large excursion of methane doesn’t really make methane important (it plays the central character here of ‘Nothing’), because the carbon dioxide the methane oxidizes to has about as great an impact as the methane, when integrated over 100,000 years! We’ve all heard of the 7th generation principle, but the “7,000th generation principle” is perhaps a bit overdone, especially when expressed along with almost Strangelove-like indifference to more immediate and present dangers we potentially could face, like, now. http://climateforce.net/2012/01/19/methane-in-the-twilight-zone-second-episode/
The atmosphere is becoming unstable…Thing are starting to happen fast.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/01/18/weather-wrap.html
Im looking forward to read Jeff Masters later again about it. Im curious why this year we have these scenario besides the positive NAO.
Latest AIRS data and expert discussion (look up the graphics)
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30926-this-is-not-good/page__st__490
Compilation of above expert discussion
http://climateforce.net/2012/01/19/latest-methane-anomalies-off-the-chart-with-expert-discussion/
albedo would give the GHG more chance to react to sunshine at high elevations as well as the lower elevations. Supersaturated water allows the GHG to react while still dissolve in the water. That methane is reactive to sunlight results in warming at the first then to the changes caused by warming.
Buying extra solar panels seems to be a reasonable hedge also dc appliances and tools are easier to hook to solar sys. (more basic).
Good luck in working out better odds of comfort for the future.
Acknowledge!
TerryM: It is the facts that are alarming, not the messaging.