Study: Decline In Arctic Sea Ice Up To 95% Man-Made

Polar Bear Sticking Tongue OutThe radical decline in sea ice around the Arctic is at least 70% due to human-induced climate change, according to a new study, and may even be up to 95% down to humansrather higher than scientists had previously thought.

The loss of ice around the Arctic has adverse effects on wildlife and also opens up new northern sea routes and opportunities to drill for oil and gas under the newly accessible sea bed.

The reduction has been accelerating since the 1990s and many scientists believe the Arctic may become ice-free in the summers later this century, possibly as early as the late 2020s.

So begins the UK Guardian story on a new open access (!) study in in the journal Environmental Research Letters, “Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent.”

This study appears consistent with a recent Geophysical Research Letters paper, “Observations reveal external driver for Arctic sea-ice retreat” (see Study: ‘Virtually’ Certain Impact Of Manmade ‘Climate Change Is Observable In Arctic Sea Ice Already Today’).

Arctic ice loss has many harsh negative consequences for humanity and the local biodiversity. First, it eliminates a primary habitat for polar bears and other species. “The survival of polar bears as a species is difficult to envisage under conditions of zero summer sea-ice cover,” concludes the 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, by leading scientists from the eight Arctic nations, including the United States.

Second, a 2008 study led by David Lawrence of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) concluded (see “Tundra 4: Permafrost loss linked to Arctic sea ice loss“):

We find that simulated western Arctic land warming trends during rapid sea ice loss are 3.5 times greater than secular 21st century climate-change trends. The accelerated warming signal penetrates up to 1500 km inland”¦.

In other words, if it continues, the recent trend in sea ice loss may triple overall Arctic warming, causing large emissions in carbon dioxide and methane from the tundra this century (for a review of recent literature, see “Nature: Climate Experts Warn Thawing Permafrost Could Cause 2.5 Times the Warming of Deforestation!“). Such accelerated warming would also presumably accelerate the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

Third, its greatest near-term impact on humans may its effect on our own weather, as recent scientific studies suggest:

So homo “sapiens” would be rather foolish to knowingly take steps that would lead to an ice free Arctic. Only brainless frogs would do that.

A good non-technical discussion on the new study can be found in the University of Reading’s news release, excerpted below:

Sea ice coverage at the North Pole has shrunk dramatically over the past 40 years. The ice is now more than a third smaller each September following the summer melt than it was in the 1970s. This affects wildlife, while potentially opening up new northern sea routes and controversial opportunities for oil and gas exploration.

Scientists at the University of Reading and the Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) have found that some of the reduction in ice since 1979 – between 5% and 30% – may be linked to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), a cycle of warming and cooling in the North Atlantic, which repeats every 65-80 years and has been in a warming phase since the mid 1970s.

Dr Jonny Day, University of Reading, said: “The debate over how much the change observed in Arctic sea ice can be attributed to humans and how much is due to natural variability in the climate is an important one. Our study shows that while natural changes play a significant role, the majority of sea ice loss – between 70% and 95% – is likely to be due to man-made greenhouse gas emissions….

By using advanced statistical techniques to compare satellite data obtained since 1979 with computer simulations run on some of the world’s most powerful supercomputers, researchers were able to provide a better estimate of the importance of natural climate variability on the reduction in sea ice, and how much could be attributed to human activity.

They found the natural cycles in winds over the Arctic (the Arctic Oscillation, or AO), which can cause ice to thin in some areas and pile up in others, had surprisingly little influence on the loss of sea ice. However the Atlantic Ocean’s AMO oscillation did have an impact.

The research, published online today in Environmental Research Letters, also looks back to 1953 when fewer observations are available. The natural warming/cooling cycles of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) appear to have a much smaller influence on sea ice loss since 1953.

The wisest time to slash emissions was quite some time ago, but action now is better is still infinitely than later.

Photo via Polar Bears Against Palin.

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7 Responses to Study: Decline In Arctic Sea Ice Up To 95% Man-Made

  1. Paul Magnus says:

    Actually its is probably more like 110%.
    We are suppose to be in a period of natural gentle global temp decline.

    Current Climate Running Against the Grain

    a little bit of science reticence me thinks.

  2. Paul Magnus says:

    Wrong link… heres a better one…

    Warming Arctic should be cooling, study finds

    Sediment samples, computer simulations track temps back 2,000 years

  3. Paul Magnus says:

    “The Arctic is warmer than it’s been in 2,000 years, according to a new study, even though it should be cooling because of changes in the Earth’s orbit that cause the region to get less direct sunlight.”

  4. Mike Roddy says:

    Somebody needs to send this to Revkin who, predictably, repeated the “natural cycles” meme on his blog, stimulating another “debate”.

    Your recent testimony before Congress said it perfectly, Joe, by saying that it’s time that government did its job. Maybe you should have added that part of their effort should be to overcome the unfortunate truth that our leaders are less human than the rest of us.

  5. M Tucker says:

    I would say 100% man made. Would we be having this disaster if atmospheric CO2 were at 270 ppm? We are nearly at 400 ppm! Where do you suppose all that came from? Of course it is only seen as disaster to some. An ice free Arctic represents a clear economic advantage to shippers looking for shorter routes and for those interested in exploiting mineral resources. It isn’t just crude, mining the sea floor is the new frontier.

  6. Byron Smith says:

    “The ice is now more than a third smaller each September following the summer melt than it was in the 1970s.”
    It’s worth mentioning that while *extent* is down ~40% since accurate records began, *volume* of September Arctic sea ice is down by more like ~70% (with larger error bars, of course, since it is much more difficult to measure).

  7. prokaryotes says:

    I think many people not realize that we actually should enter a cooling period. Just imagine it wouldn’t be that way and what that would mean for global warming already….

    I have a hard time imagine the summer in 10 years or even in 5, because it is projected to get even hotter!