The record lows for Arctic sea ice area and volume are generally set in mid- to late September.
But as Neven’s Arctic Sea Ice Blog reports, we’re already starting to see those September minimum records being broken in mid-August. Cryosphere Today, for instance, reports that the Arctic has just dropped below its lowest sea ice area on record:
We are all but certain to set the record low volume this year. In fact the European Space Agency’s CryoSat-2 probe confirms what the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center has been saying for years: Arctic sea ice volume has been collapsing faster than sea ice area (or extent) because the ice has been getting thinner and thinner.
In fact, the latest satellite CryoSat-2 data shows the rate of loss of Arctic sea ice is “50% higher than most scenarios outlined by polar scientists and suggests that global warming, triggered by rising greenhouse gas emissions, is beginning to have a major impact on the region.”
A key point is that the thinner ice is much more vulnerable to winds and Arctic storms, like this month’s “Arcticane” (see “Massive Storm Batters Melting Sea Ice“).
That is the true death spiral, and I’ll do a separate post on volume shortly.
For Americans, the latest science suggests the loss of Arctic ice is already making our weather more extreme — and further losses will likely accelerate the trend (see Arctic Warming Favors Extreme, Prolonged Weather Events ‘Such As Drought, Flooding, Cold Spells And Heat Waves’). I’ll do a separate post on this shortly, too. Indeed, Climate Progress will be reporting regularly on the record Arctic ice loss — and what it means for the nation and the world — for the duration of the melt season.
Here is more from Neven on Cryosphere Today’s new record low sea ice area:
There are several scientific organisations that keep an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover and put out graphs to inform us of the amount of ice that is left. You can see most, if not all, of them on the ASI Graphs webpage. I expect the record on most of these graphs to be broken in weeks to come.
After Uni Bremen sea ice extent and Arctic ROOS sea ice area another big domino has fallen with Cryosphere Today sea ice area….
And the close-up:
Here are the numbers of all the minimums since 2005:
- 2005: 4.09 million square km
- 2006: 4.03 million square km
- 2007: 2.92 million square km
- 2008: 3.00 million square km
- 2009: 3.42 million square km
- 2010: 3.07 million square km
- 2011: 2.90 million square km
- 2012: 2.88 million square km (and running)
As usual, Jim Pettit has the details:
“Though it happened 23 days earlier than it did last year, today’s CT SIA value is already 27,281 km2 lower than last year’s record (which itself only edged out the 2007 record by fewer than 15k km2). 17 days elapsed last year between the date the 3 million km2 mark was passed and the record was set; this year, that only took four days.
“Over the course of the record–1979-2011–the average CT area loss from this day to minimum has been 521k km2. Based on a straight extrapolation from prior years, 2012 SIA would/could/almost certaionly will end up somewhere between 1.92 million and 2.77 million km2, with a mean minimum of 2.36 million km2.”
Stay tuned to this channel!
NOTE: The pun in the headline is from a recent post by Tamino, “(Cryosp)here today, gone tomorrow,” which notes that a new blog of “showing maps of Arctic sea ice concentration and thickness, called apocalypse4real … shows that all the ice thicker than 6m is gone from the Arctic”:
Related Posts:
- Death Spiral Watch (6-17-12): Arctic Sea Ice Takes A Nosedive
- Arctic Death Spiral Continues: Record Low Sea Ice Volume Appears Likely
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I honestly don’t understand the “death spiral” metaphor. What is dying, the ice? Hasn’t this been what has happened before in warmer times?
Henry.
@Henry: no, it’s actually been at least a million years since the Arctic was seasonally ice-free.
THIS is what we mean by the ‘Death Spiral’:
http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/sia_2.png
To understand the full spectrum of implications from Sea Ice Decline i can highly recommend the following video
http://climatestate.com/pure-climate-science/item/lesson-arctic-sea-ice-decline.html
Thank you! Well worth it…
Not only that, but as I understand it, we’re forcing the global climate system (this isn’t just a regional change) more rapidly than anything human civilization has seen. Speed kills. Or at least brings us that much closer to climate change that’s broadly disruptive to holocene ecosystems and societies.
Homo destructans is paying its debt to nature.
@Romm: Briefly, it’s great to see you covering this in depth, with your scientific perspective. I’ve missed that voice a bit since the methane discussion. I look forward to your perspective on what for us Neven addicts has become a series of weekly jaw-droppings. – w
Indeed Henry, and each time it has been very disruptive to Earth’s eco-systems. Mankind has advanced in leaps and bounds in a relatively short time frame and a climate that has been very stable. Currently many basics in the food chain are courting with disaster as is. Add in a few giant droughts into the equation and it does not take much imagination to add meaning to the “death spiral” metaphor.
Henry, what’s dying is perennial, or multi-year sea ice in the Arctic. There will still be annual sea ice, of course, but annual ice by definition melts every summer, so what’s also in a death spiral is the stability of the effect of perennial Arctic sea ice on northern hemisphere weather.
Jim, there will still be seasonal sea ice for a while. In a further warmed climate, even seasonal sea ice will disappear, and the Arctic ocean will be perennially sea ice free.
How much warmer? Forcings need increase only another 3 watts per square meter to push the Arctic ocean from a seasonally ice covered state to a perennially ice free state. Compare this with about 15-20 w/m^2 to reach a seasonally ice free state.
Time frame? At the current rate of increase in CO2, best guess is from 30 to 50 years after the first sea ice free Summer until the first sea ice free Winter.
Yes, it’s really that imminent. Barely enough time to transition the Economy of major polluters off of fossil fuels. We have our work cut out for us, but first we have to wake up to the task.
We watch it. At least some of us do.
What will it take to make this an issue in the upcoming presidential debates. I don’t see that happening with the “safe” (meaning never ask a controversial question of a candidate) moderators for the 4 debates.
Every time someone posts a comment here, they should also post a comment to PBS and Jim Lehrer. Maybe that will help.
For myself, I know where Dr. Jill Stein stands but it would be good to hear her in the debates as well.
I suspect that they will move heaven and earth to keep her out of the debates. The Obamatons and the Stormin’ Mormon Troopers will see to that.
The rate given in the Guardian article is probably a bit off (as you can read here), nevertheless hints previous underestimation of the sea ice decline trends. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/08/arctic-sea-ice-minimum-2012/comment-page-2/#comment-243360
Can someone please explain if there are different measures of arctic sea ice area in use these days? CT has arctic sea ice area as 2.88 million square km at present, yet there are other sources talking about sea ice possibly falling below 4 million square km this year. For example, this site sources data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2012/august
I’m confused.
CT is giving the figure for area, NSIDC is giving the area of extent. Area means that if a section of the ocean has 50% ice coverage, it is counted as 50%, or 50% of 100,000 square miles is 50,000 square miles. Extent measures how far out ice extends, so it measures any concentration of ice the same, 30% or 75% are the same area. The extent does have a minimum limit, which is usually between 15 and 30%, anything less than these minimums are not counted as ice coverage.
Ice extent can never be less than ice area, it is alway higher, unless it reaches near zero, which we hope will not happen, but is becoming very likey, and soon.
The extreme loss of sea ice this year greatly increases the odds of an ice free arctic by the summer of 2020, which will be a global catastrophe, with rapidly shifting weather patters, and a rapid increase in the loss of greenland ice with rising sea levels.
All this, so that we can live an unhealthy lifestyle, and make the rich more money.
I think the plot of PIOMAS sea ice volume minimums shown here:
http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/11/06/depressing-climate-trends/
tells the story most sickeningly – even w/o 2012 data.
Note that the exponential curve fitted predicts 0 ice volume in 2015 (for the minimum for year).
But this is science, says GOP… We can’t believe that liberal concept. /sarcasm