The loss of Arctic ice is massively compounding the effects of greenhouse gas emissions, ice scientist Professor Peter Wadhams has told BBC Newsnight. [BBC]
White ice reflects more sunlight than open water, acting like a parasol.
Melting of white Arctic ice, currently at its lowest level in recent history, is causing more absorption.
Prof Wadhams calculates this absorption of the sun’s rays is having an effect “the equivalent of about 20 years of additional CO2 being added by man”.
The Cambridge University expert says that the Arctic ice cap is “heading for oblivion”.
In 2008, Al Gore strode onto the stage at Denver’s Invesco Field to a hero’s welcome, throwing his support behind Barack Obama to take on the “global climate crisis.” When Obama takes the stage this week, Gore will be nowhere in sight. [Politico]
This year’s outbreak of West Nile virus is the worst since the illness was first observed in the United States in 1999, officials from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday. [Los Angeles Times]
In a new report titled “Game Changer: How the Sports Industry Is Saving the Environment,” the Natural Resources Defense Council presents case studies of greening initiatives by sports leagues and franchises like switching from fossil fuels to solar energy, installing low-flush toilets to save water and conspicuously displaying recycling bins. [New York Times]
Forecasters say Leslie has strengthened into the sixth hurricane of the Atlantic season but still remains far from land. [Associated Press]
A new race for water is rippling through the drought-scorched heartland, pitting farmers against oil and gas interests, driven by new drilling techniques that use powerful streams of water, sand and chemicals to crack the ground and release stores of oil and gas. [New York Times]
There are a couple of things going on that are more curious than scary, showing that tropical storms and hurricanes can do some pretty strange things. The first has to do with Isaac, which could be giving birth to a new storm in the Gulf of Mexico. [Climate Central]
A 3,600-acre fire in the San Gabriel Mountains near Los Angeles chewed through thick brush in steep terrain that hadn’t burned in two decades amid hot, dry conditions. [Businessweek]
Previous in TP Climate Progress
Language Intelligence: Lessons on persuasion from Jesus, Shakespeare, Lincoln, and Lady Gaga
It seems the Arctic summer ice has lost 3/4 of its volume in 3 decades. So yes, the remaining 1/4 will probably last about 1 decade.
Probably not, the process has proven not to be linear. And Old Ma Nature loves a little practical joke – see article on Isaac, Leslie and Michael from Climate Central, ME
Extrapolating from PIOMAS suggests it will last around another 3 years, and not another decade.
Tracking the 2012 curve far below the 2007 line and waiting for the results of the remaining two weeks of melt season makes me think the massive expanse of warm, open west Arctic Ocean will keep melting the western edge longer than the usual mid-September refreeze.
A long and slow refreeze coming.
So much new ice next spring.
Arctic ice eading to zero in this decade. Humans have no idea how that will threaten our survival. Guess we’ll find out.
Any bets on for next year virtually no ice in the summer?
Climate Chaos shared U.S. National Weather Service’s photo.
33 minutes ago
El Niño conditions are likely to develop this month, according to the El Niño Watch issued today by the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. More info…
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
…this absorption of the sun’s rays is having an effect “the equivalent of about 20 years of additional CO2 being added by man”.
Yes, this is what they mean by “tipping point”, where the positive feedback becomes a similar magnitude to the original problem, at which point we no longer would have any ability to stop it.
And just yesterday on a HuffPo article I got lectured by a denier that we are facing “20 to 30 years of extremely cold climate”.
I ripped him pretty good, but I don’t expect that to help much.
According to NASA measured Earth energy imbalance was +0.58 W/m2 during 2005-2010.
I have come across estimates of albedo change due to loss of summer sea ice of 0.3W/m2. For year round ice loss it’s 0.7W/m2.
So a 50-100% plus increase in Earth’s energy imbalance from sea ice loss alone is possible. And I presume loss of snow on land and changes in albedo on Greenland will add to this as surely these will follow loss of sea ice.
Additional climate and energy news headlines for 9/6 are posted at http://www.marcaccicomms.com/news/energy-and-environment-news-roundup-8-6-12-2/
NRDC issued a new report: ““Game Changer: How the Sports Industry Is Saving the Environment,”
I’d like to see NRDC get serious and become a”game changer”. Or, are we really on our own here.
On our own, it seems. For real depression, check out how rarely climate is brought up at the D convention.
They are leaving it up to Obama to lead the way on this issue…
After he gets the win. He wants to save the world, not run a risky campaign, ME
For years I keep hearing something like “faster the expected” or “accelerating”. I don’t think climate projections are taking the full effect of feedbacks. And I don’t buy the “How the Sports Industry Is Saving the Environment” all the plane flights, thousands of fans jump in their SUVs for every singe game! (but games are more important than the climate?)
As of August we’ve lost 78% of volume since 1979. Final melt month is September. So, likely, we’ll likely be closer to 20% remaining.
I think it’s pretty realistic to start looking for potential ice free or near ice free summers within the next 5-20 years. 5 years if trends continue, 10 years if there’s a small slowing, 20 years if there’s a major slowing.
However, warmer waters, warmer air, local greenhouse gas release in the Arctic, and less reflectivity all point toward an increasing pace of heating and, likely, melt.
Some skeptics are now starting to use the IPCC as a fall-back. You know, the same report they demonized just a few years back?
A jamaican perspective…. hot hot hot!
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/environment/Temperatures-rise-in-Jamaica_12365358
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/environment/City-dwellers-on-summer-heat
Where is Al Gore?
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80680.html
http://current.com/groups/news-blog/93893758_al-gore-calls-bill-clintons-dnc-speech-a-masterful-performance.htm
I wonder how Joe is feeling about the DNC while the Arctic ice and we as a species—- are heading toward oblivion?
Do we hear about climate change?
Of course not.
We hear about the economy, god, Jerusalem and Michelle’s pink dress in high def.
Shame on Gore and Clinton for not bringing to the fore THE most significant issue humankind has ever faced.
I am not going to waste more time pointing out the obvious re: Obama’s silence, inaction and harmful actions (most recent example—Shell in Arctic).
What does Gore have to lose now if he throws caution to the wind?
In the interview Paul provides a link to, Gore is oozing with delight over Clinton’s speech.
Does anyone else find this incomprehensible (if not utterly repulsive and depressing)?
Here is a portion of the politico article Paul links us to in which Joe is cited:
“Gore has been frustrated, as the rest of us have been, with the lack of action on climate,” said Joseph Romm, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and editor of the blog Climate Progress.
Romm, an Energy Department official under Clinton, expressed disappointment that Obama hasn’t connected the nation’s severe droughts to climate change.
“I’ve expressed great disappointment with the president for not pushing harder for legislation a few years ago and for not talking about climate change more, particularly since we’ve had this record drought, record heat wave and record flooding,” he said.
Romm has long argued that the campaign and administration could score major political points by talking about climate change, arguing that top Obama officials are not talking about the issue because they’re clinging to “misguided polling analysis.”
But Romm, who just published a book on political communication, was quick to praise the administration’s efforts to expand renewable energy and reduce harmful emissions from power plants and vehicles.
The administration finalized new rules last month that would require a 54.5 miles per gallon fuel efficiency standard by 2025. The regulation, which the administration has hailed as “historic,” is the product of lengthy negotiations between industry and environmental groups.
Read more:http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80680_Page2.html#ixzz25iAypvsz
In JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 114, C07005, 16 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2009JC005312
“Thinning and volume loss of the Arctic Ocean sea ice cover: 2003–2008″ (Kwok et.al) I found this:
“Average winter sea ice volume over the period, weighted by a loss of ∼3000 km3 between 2007 and 2008, was ∼14,000 km3.”
Assuming entire melt of the 14,000km3 ice, I did the math and came up with a melt of 14 trillion tons of ice. Distributing that amount of ice weight as water around the earth’s oceans must surely have an effect on our planet’s orbital equilibrium.
Any thoughts out here?
This article in the Guardian newspaper explains that past melts brought an unstable period of volcanic explosions and other major events – as the meltwater was redistibuted around the planet.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/26/why-climate-change-shake-earth
And don’t miss this audio podcast with Dr. Bill McGuire on the shift that happens globally when the ice melts.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/audio/2012/feb/13/science-weekly-podcast-climate-change
JM -
First real knock on effect after the ice is gone, a re-ordering of the ocean currents.
University College London’s Global Drought Monitor shows how dry it has been in Russia, India, SE Europe and Central Asia as well as the Mid West of the US. Click on the PDSI in the left hand menu:
http://tinyurl.com/yrdkl6
Guess those subtropics keep expanding.
Spike -
From your link :
Corn yields in Ukraine, where a summer drought hurt crops, declined 27 percent, agriculture researcher ProAgro said.
The drought has cut this year’s harvest by nearly 30 percent and led to speculation that Russia could ban exports, as it did in 2010 in a shock to world grain markets.
A severe drought will slash Kazakhstan’s 2012 grain harvest to around half the record 26.9m tonnes gathered in 2011
Drought and hail caused almost 3 billion euros ($3.8 billion) in crop damage in Italy this year, farming union Coldiretti said yesterday. Corn yields in Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary may be more than 35 percent smaller than a year earlier
Interesting that both Al Gore and George W. Bush were absent from their respective conventions. Not only are there words that can’t be spoken, there are names that can’t be uttered.
yeah – Al and his inconvenient truth are not what they want to talk about in Charlotte.
They will wait until they have the numbers in the bag, ME
ME, you are on a roll. Keep it up. Thanks.