Opine Away.
This awesome cartoon from xkcd.com about the end of the monster 2005 hurricane season seems strangely appropriate as we await the worst of Frankenstorm:
Reprinted with permission. Full-size cartoon here.
“The climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events,” explained meteorologist Jeff Masters earlier this year.
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New York City’s greenhouse gas emissions – visualised:
http://www.futuretimeline.net/blog/2012/10/27.htm
According to science deniers, our impact on the atmosphere is negligible. Humans are tiny, so clearly there’s nothing to worry about.
Sigh…
Just a little over a year ago there were rainstorms every other day often with 4 to 8 inches at a time, for over a month. Just a short time before that, summer temps broke record highs for the region. The winter before was the winter from hell with snow storms every few days and low temps. Last winter didn’t happen. Last October we spent another week without power (two weeks in one year) from the Halloween snowstorm taking down tree limbs like bowling pins. Limbs without rot were still falling as of two months ago, just overstressed. Oh yeah, spring started in February,and my garden didn’t grow well this year. My second planting last year got wiped out by incessant rain and clouds.
Oh, forgot to mention those multiple floods that devastated two nearby regions including much of New England/New York/New Jersey/Pennsylvania.
Had some nice weather this summer while half the country dried up, but Mother Nature seems not to let us alone, here comes Sandy.
At this point, I am getting very irritated.
I’m sure she will listen carefully but just in case she is too busy planning her next campaign, get ready to feel really annoyed, ME
Campaign? Do you think Mother Nature is at war with us? I thought it was the other way around and we, like small children wrecking everything, just don’t understand the consequences of our actions. Nature having a campaign against us would be placing Nature down at our level. No such need, balance will be restored, that is all. Results may vary.
You are quite correct rollin and I was being anthropomorphic. However, I have found it a useful tactic to get the consequences of our actions through to some people who understand hit and hit back. It was an obviously poor attempt to respond to what I perceived as your humour, ME
My purpose was to remind everyone (including myself) that these are not individual events or even a small group, the weather changes are continuous and are over many years at this point. I could have included several previous repetitive flood events (100 year events repeated every year or two) in my locale. It is so easy to forget weather history and just move on with things -forgetting to connect the dots. Welcome to a new world every few years.
I’ve always wondered why NWS screams in all caps, too. Here’s the answer.
BLAME THE UNITED NATIONS FOR ALL CAPS WEATHER SERVICE BULLETINS
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/blame-united-nations-all-caps-weather-service-bulletins
I thought all caps was from the days of Morse Code via radio and telegraph, and then teletype, when fresh news came over the wire in caps.
If we still had a very limited bandwidth we’d probably still need to keep it simple.
Ever see an early e-mail? Cryptically short.
Mr. President, climate change is here now. Not just a visit on Tuesday and gone by Election day. This is happening on your Watch, not in some murky future. And it gets worse every minute we delay. Let’s roll already!
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/264409-obama-surprised-climate-change-didnt-surface-at-debates
In a later interview with MTV, Mr Obama emphasised the importance of voting for young adults, saying “there’s no excuse” not to and attacked Mr Romney on climate change, calling it a “critical issue” for MTV viewers.
“[Romney] says he believes in climate change… but he says he’s not sure man-made causes are the reason,” Mr Obama said. “I believe scientists, who say we’re putting too much carbon emissions into the atmosphere and it’s heating the planet and it’s going to have a severe effect.”
BBC News – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20104929
It is time for his actions to match his words. This is not going to be something you can ease into with half measures.
Lookit them Yo Yos! That’s the Way Ya Do it!!!!!!! Music Channel Breaks Glass on Climate Emergency http://climatecrocks.com/2012/10/27/i-want-my-mtv-music-channel-breaks-glass-on-climate-emergency/
If Obama’s next step on energy efficiency can come to be — as a massive conversion of buildings and transport infrastructure, that would generate plenty of jobs that couldn’t be sent overseas. I hope Obama gets to implement that.
Alternately, if Romney wins, let’s hope he borrows the good idea freely from Obama, like Obama took from the Romneycare health insurance model.
(Slightly OT but one of my favorite ‘likes’ about Michelle Obama is that she usually has a plan for every eventuality. We could all learn how to do that.)
I have given up on “natural variation” in weather. Natural variation implies a recursion to the mean, but these days the weather just gets warmer and wilder.
All of our weather cycles (PDO, NAO, & etc.) are now just noise in the signal of AGW. AGW has become the dominate driver of variance in our weather.
All of our weather is driven by one pool of energy. There is no “old energy” and “new AGW energy”. AGW affects all of our weather, all of the time. The weather paradigms of the 20th century can be bound up and put on the shelf, because they are no longer useful.
Precisely. It’s climate destabilisation leading to climate chaos now. As long as we keep forcing change by pumping greenhouse emissions, the extremes will grow in intensity and frequency, and wipe out agricultural sufficiency for a start. That will cause hunger, starvation and death in the poor world (and misery for the burgeoning ranks of the poor in the once rich world), bringing social chaos, war and refugee floods. The destabilisation and collapse flows on from there, all as the ecological catastrophe (certainly not confined by any means just to weather)deepens.
Ever consider that as phytoplankton and forests decrease in extent so will atmospheric oxygen. (Humans apparently have a hard time below 19%)
Climate Change Denier Senator James Inhofe Receives Rubber Dodo Award http://blog.seattlepi.com/candacewhiting/2012/10/26/climate-change-denier-senator-james-inhofe-receives-rubber-dodo-award/
Today’s mail included a 40-page glossy full-color brochure from “Freedom Works for America.” The brochure is entitled, “Voter’s Guide to Dan Maffei,” and attempts to vilify the congressional candidate Dan Maffei(D). Maffei, a one-term representative in 2008-2010 from NY’s 24th district, is running against Ann-Marie Buerkle (R), one-term incumbent.
Two astoundingly self-contradictory, misleading and erroneous statements from the glossy brochure:
“Maffei has been the ally of the Department of Energy, which has for 35 years impeded business interests in the United States, cost taxpayers billions of dollars, hampered U.S. production of new energy sources, stalled innovation, and been a leading contributor to increased dependence on foreign oil. Maffei believes that government subsidies and handouts – and not the free market – is the way to achieve independence.”
“The Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency have cost the taxpayers billions of dollars, impeded U.S. production of new energy sources, stalled energy innovation, and as led to increased dependence on foreign oil.”
It’s such a Gish Gallop of disinformation that I prefer to trust the informed Climate Progress readers to detect the mistakes rather than enumerate them. (Though there could be a quiz..)
A word about Sandy -
The European model has nailed the forecast from the beginning . It is predicting a pressure reading at landfall of 949 millibars. The all time lows in this area, are around 961.
“Sandy to feed off near-record warm waters off the mid-Atlantic coast
During September 2012, ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast in the 5×10° latitude-longitude box between 35 – 40°N, 65 – 75° W were 2.3°F (1.3°C) above average, according to the UK Met Office. This is the 2nd greatest departure from average for ocean temperatures in this region since reliable ocean temperature measurements began over a century ago (all-time record: 2.0°C above average in September 1947.) These unusually warm waters have persisted into October, and will enable Sandy to pull more energy from the ocean than a typical October hurricane. The warm waters will also help increase Sandy’s rains, since more water vapor will evaporate into the air from a warm ocean. I expect Sandy will dump the heaviest October rains on record over a large swath of the mid-Atlantic and New England”
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2276
Kudos to the reporter who wrote this article and the paper for running it:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/nationnow/la-na-nn-hurricane-sandy-heads-to-northeast-20121027,0,3886956.story
At 2pm EDT NWS reported Tropical Storm Sandy had a radius of up to 105 miles of hurricane force winds and a radius up to a 450 miles for storm force winds.
The forecast maps don’t show the swathe of the storm system, only the expected center!
Once again, the graphics MUST be brought up to speed on the lateral dimensions, width, swathe, whatever it conventionally could be called.
If we are going to have a more effective public conversation about climate change, the width of storms and volume of moisture should become factors easy to discuss, not just their frequency.
For recent graphics on precipitation and storm direction:
http://www.facebook.com/US.National.Weather.Service.gov
It’s nearly November and it was nearly 8PM and several cities in the country of Greenland reported temps. above 40 degrees F. Are you sure that locally it isn’t about 40 degrees above long term average temps?
RM -
Are you from the future , because it’s still Oct 27th here ?
That weather in Greenland, is looking warm enough for companies to bring minors etc. and to purchase islands of elevation. Certainly construction could go on for much of the year.
With northern Greenland to the west side rising in elevation, people concerned with what are they going to do could purchase early still. The ice will melt by 2016? But there is still the permafrost to contend with to make the underground storm shelter. UV radiation is expected to become radical enough for time continuous shelter in only a few years. It is exciting to see that some still have the survival instinct enough to plan and build new cities in the far north.
According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA”s Meteorological Development Laboratory, Sandy’s storm surge may be higher than Irene’s, and has the potential to flood New York City’s subway system (Figure 4.) The amount of water will depend critically upon whether or not the peak storm surge arrives at high tide or not. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening’s high tide near 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City’s subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 30% chance that Sandy’s storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2277
U.S. looks to old Arctic ship logs for climate change clues
By Ian SimpsonPosted 2012/10/26 at 4:40 pm EDT
WASHINGTON, Oct. 26, 2012 (Reuters) — A project to help track Arctic climate change using volunteers to transcribe U.S. ship logs online was launched on Wednesday by the National Archives and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Using citizen scientists to transcribe thousands of pages of logbooks from Navy, Coast Guard and other ships from 1850 to World War Two will fill a big data gap, NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said.
http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/bre89p15j-us-usa-climate-arctic/
GOES East Interactive Water Vapor Weather Satellite Images
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullwv.html
I too have been seeing predictions that this storm will come ashore with a record low pressure reading. The waters it is set to travel over are also near record levels of warmth. And the low pressure off of Iceland that should pull it out to sea like most other storms is replaced by an unusual High pressure system.
So much related to this storm is rare, unusual or even unprecedented! So, this begs the question, is this storm another extreme weather event driven by the changing climate?
Having lived through a record 24 hour rain storm that dumped form 10-20 inches of rain on Northern Minnesota this summer, I am betting that storm and this storm are signals of a climate shift that has already taken place.
Never fear though, the deniers are in great form and will have a hundred excuses for why there is NO fossil fuel burning induced climate change. They have become almost entertaining in their denial strategies.
JB -
The list of locations with new all the rain fall rates never stops. The blocking Highs get more muscles and barely move. The ever deepening Lows spin around them.
As readers know we had a record wet summer in the UK, but I hadn’t realised quite how severe and extensive till I saw this map:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2012/summer/rain_summer2012.gif
Our spring drought probably saved us from even worse floods than were experienced.
Fossil fuel is immoral.
I call for a benefit company, a type of socially responsible company with the ability to grow and to spread profitability around, but also charged with the responsibility of reducing the price of any form of alternative energy that it chooses, through R&D or simply through underpricing, in order to drain all of the profit out of fossil fuel production. Without profit, the remaining fossil fuel shall be left in the ground.
If anyone has another way of driving straight toward the goal of inhibiting climate change, I’ll listen.
Sandy tied for #2 largest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic since 1988. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2277#commenttop
According to comment #689 from WU staff Angela Fritz, Atmospheric Scientist
Good summary of the scientific background to Sandy here:
http://www.climatecodered.org/2012/10/connecting-dots-between-frankenstorm.html
NOAA Director Jane Lubchenco posted a report on FaceBook after she went into the center of Hurricane Sandy in an Orion Hurricane Hunter.
” One in five Americans may be impacted by this large and potentially destructive storm. For those of you in Sandy’s broad swath, please be prepared: Follow the forecasts and advisories at http://www.hurricanes.gov/ andhttp://www.weather.gov/ ; compile an emergency kit http://www.ready.gov/ and develop an emergency plan for you and your loved ones; and heed instructions from your local emergency management authorities. Don’t forget to use your online social networks to get the word out about how you’ve prepared and encourage others to stay alert and stay safe. Here are a few pictures from my flight.”
From: http://www.facebook.com/usnoaagov
Possibly one in five Americans! – Sheer volume of that could overwhelm capacity of emergency services and repair crews.
I’m still hugely grateful that HydroQuebec utility crews came across the US Canadian border to New York to help us out after the derecho wind storm of 1998. Since 2001 there’s been a some security foolishness about firetrucks and other rescue crews prevented from crossing the US Canadian border. I hope Janet Napolitano and Homeland Security are ready for this storm.
Vorticity, what I never realized about the vortexes that control some of our weather:
How Fujiwhara Effect Will Toss Hurricane Sandy Into U.S. – Adam Sobel
http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/how-fujiwhara-effect-will-toss-hurricane-sandy-into-u.s.-15174?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+climatecentral%2FdjOO+Climate+Central+-+Full+Feed
This story, from the excellent Climate Progress blog, now seems especially pertinent:
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/05/31/493086/north-carolina-bill-would-require-coastal-communities-to-ignore-global-warming-science/
Even better, (H/T Suzanne G from the Guardian):
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/06/14/244973/mitt-romney-federal-disaster-relief-for-tornado-and-flood-victims-is-immoral-makes-no-sense-at-all/