One Little Bird That Might Adapt To A Changing Climate

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Little birds might look incredibly fragile, with their tiny wings and minuscule beaks. But according to a new study by a University of Oxford ornithologist, those little winged creatures actually stand big chances of surviving the effects of a changing climate.

Orinthologist Ben Sheldon took an innovative approach to studying the effects of climate change on one little bird species, the great tit. Instead of assuming that the bird could only survive under its current environmental conditions, he looked at its ability to adapt over time.

Using 50 years of data on when the great tit laid its eggs, Sheldon first looked for established patterns of egg-laying in relation to the climate. The LA Times explains, “on average, the birds had shifted their egg-laying time two weeks earlier in the year since the study began in 1960,” and that “Females that had multiple clutches were able to adjust their egg-laying time year by year as temperatures varied.”

But the study gets even more interesting with what the researchers did next: They ran a simulation to test how the great tits would respond to low, medium, or high levels of carbon emissions in the future. And the outlook looks great for the great tit:

[T]he Wytham great tit population is predicted to be able to adapt to a maximum long-term rate of increase in spring temperature of 0.47°C y−1, i.e. >15 times the rate of temperature change of 0.030°C y−1 predicted under a high emissions scenario for this location and time in the annual cycle…. we ran 100,000 simulations, with each simulation randomly sampling from a normal error distribution of parameters σ2h2, γ, T, B, and b. This resulted in an estimated probability of 0.001 that ηc falls below 0.030°C y−1 (Figure 2a), and hence again very little likelihood of extinction due to predicted temperature change

In layman’s terms, this means that great tits will be able to adjust to our changing global temperatures, even under the worst-case scenario predictions. The researchers predict that, even if the great tit couldn’t change when it lays its eggs, they’d have a 40 percent chance of surviving through evolution.

Other woodland creatures have had much worse fates befall them thanks to climate change. Take for example the mountain-dwelling pika, a furry little mammal called the “mountain bunny of the Rockies.” Pika are so sensitive to changing temperatures that the recent heat and drought in the American west is driving them quickly to extinction. The pika aren’t alone; the painted turtle is losing all of its men thanks to climate change, and many species of marmots, including groundhogs, are on the decline. Sadly, it’s just the beginning; models project that between 40 and 70 percent of species could go extinct if global temperatures rise by more than 3.5°C.

12 Responses to One Little Bird That Might Adapt To A Changing Climate

  1. Zimzone says:

    As a bird watcher, feeder & enthusiast, I’m always amazed at just how adaptable birds, particularly small ones, have become.
    Although I still believe insects will eventually survive climate change better than most animals, birds tend to thrive on insects, so perhaps that will save them once homo sapiens are no longer at the helm.

  2. Mark Belgium says:

    One little bird that MIGHT adapt to a changing climate…but most of them don’t!
    And off course you can’t blame climate change alone to the decline of the most common bird species in Western Europe en the UK… but we are losing them together with butterfly’s, bee’s, the ash tree even the blackbird is threatened: … I don’t want to be pessimistic but for me, as a nature photographer, it is almost apocalyptic.

  3. rollin says:

    Some good news amidst the plethora of bad. I hear the mosquitos are doing well.

  4. plg says:

    So, is this the revenge of the dinosaurs; their descendants adapt better than mammals?

  5. Mulga Mumblebrain says:

    Good luck to them. I’m up most mornings at dawn, so I hear the ‘dawn chorus’ often, and I’m ever grateful to the little dears for it. However, they will also have to face a plethora of other disasters as we wreak total havoc on the planet, in our greedy, psychotic, fury.

  6. Merrelyn Emery says:

    Oh, I do like that line of thought. Is there an element of circularity in evolution? ME

  7. Merrelyn Emery says:

    Yep, the mozzies are doing well and so is malaria, ME

  8. rollin says:

    I wonder what they are really saying, but I know why they are doing it. The sun came up and they are alive. That is all they need.

  9. plg says:

    “We shall overcome”?

  10. Mulga Mumblebrain says:

    Their real victory is the triumph of their Reptilican descendants. Making the world several degrees warmer will be to their very great advantage.

  11. BillD says:

    However, scientists still expect that climate change will be a driver of accelerating extinction rates. For many species, changes in climate result in changes in range and exposure to new competitors and diseases. More northern species move up mountains until they get near the top and have no where to go. Some species will benefit but they will often be the more common and widespread species, not the ones in decline from habitat destruction and other issues.

  12. Mulga Mumblebrain says:

    ‘Not much longer comrades! Remember the passenger pigeons’.