The Center for American Progress is having a panel Monday at 1 pm at its DC headquarters in conjunction with the release of the report, Forecast: Storm Warnings.

Featured Panelists:
Dr. Peter Webster, Professor in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech
Mayor Richard T. Crotty (R), Orange County, Florida
John B. Copenhaver, President and CEO, DRI International
Jane Bullock, Former Chief of Staff, FEMA Director James Lee Witt

Come if you can: I’ve heard Webster a number of times, and he’s a great speaker — plus he is sure to talk about his important new paper, “Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?”

I’ll post the report and the video when they’re available.

NPR’s John Dimsdale interviewed me Monday on Day to Day about “The Cost of Coal.”

Mike Tidwell interviewed me Tuesday on Earthbeat for a climate news round up. I’m at the 40-minute mark, but you might like the earlier discussion on “the vast divide between National Geographic Magazine‘s editorial stance and its advertising.” Don’t miss the part where Mike says Hell and High Water is the best book on climate.

The previous post debunked an article that argued scientists have seriously overestimated climate change. Now let’s look at the evidence they are seriously underestimating climate change.

To do that, the fatal flaw with the IPCC’s over-reliance on the poorly named “equilibrium climate sensitivity” (ECS) must be understood. Recall that the ECS is the “equilibrium change in global mean surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric (equivalent) CO2 concentration,” which the IPCC’s 2007 Fourth Assessment Report concluded was 2 to 4.5°C.

You might think that the ECS tells you how much the planet’s temperature will rise if humans emit enough CO2 to double its atmospheric concentration. But it doesn’t. It is just a theoretical construct. It tells you only how much the planet’s temperature will rise if CO2 concentrations double and then are magically frozen.

That’s because the ECS omits key carbon cycle feedbacks that a rise in the planet’s temperature will likely trigger. For instance, a doubling of CO2 to 550 ppm will lead to the melting of the permafrost and the release of huge amounts of carbon currently frozen it it. These amplifying (or positive) feedbacks are the main subject of this post.

The ECS includes only “fast feedbacks” which NASA’s James Hansen defines as follows:

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