Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and other carmakers may cut production costs for hybrid systems by 67 percent over the next decade as shipments rise and companies gain experience, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Gasoline-electric systems on average will cost $1,919 each in 2018, compared with an estimated $5,869 this year as the global market grows 16-fold to 9.6 million units over the same period, the bank said in a report released yesterday.
This is remarkable news, especially when you consider that gasoline prices are all but certain to rise to $5 a gallon and higher over the next decade (see “Will we see $3 gasoline before $5?“).
If hybrids drop in price and gasoline resumes its peak-oil driven upward trend, then by, say 2015, it would simply not make sense to bother producing a non-hybrid version of any vehicle. At the same time, this drop in the price of key hybrid components will mean a drop in the price of key plug-in hybrid components, further accelerating the time at which that core climate solution becomes cost-effective.