On Saturday, I reported that 15 EU countries were on track to meet Kyoto targets, but some readers — including Roger Pielke, Jr. (!) — were skeptical. Now the European Environment Agency (EEA) has released a lot of the underlying data, “Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2008.”
Figure ES-1 (click to enlarge) tells much of the story:
The Kyoto goal for the EU-15 is an 8% cut by 2008-2012 compared to 1990 levels. Four Member States (Germany, Greece, Sweden and the United Kingdom) expect to achieve their targets “through reductions from existing measures alone.” What will the EU-15 do as a whole?
Data show that the 15 EU Member States sharing a common target under the Kyoto Protocol (EU-15) achieved a reduction of their greenhouse gases by 2.7% between the base year and 2006. The policies and measures in place as of today will not be sufficient for the EU-15 to meet its Kyoto target, as they are expected to push down emissions between 2006 and 2010 to an average level only 3.6% below the base-year emissions. If the additional measures planned by 10 Member States were fully implemented and on time, a further reduction of 3.3% could be obtained. The full effect of the EU Emission Trading Scheme is not reflected in all Member States’ projections.
That means if the additional measures are achieved, the EU-15 would achieve nearly a 7% cut between 1990 and 2010, which is quite close to their target. What are these measures?