[Note: Buried in this post is a request for your predictions or ideas.]

Andy Revkin saw my post on Hansen Sunday night and e-mailed me some questions and then turned my reply into a post at Dot Earth, “Joe Romm on Hansen’s Mistakes, Cap’s Limits.”

To Revkin’s question of what might drive action strong enough to avoid the worst, I cited my post on “The harsh lessons of the financial bailout” — in particular a key driver is “bad things must be happening to regular people right now.” One of the media’s greatest failings is ‘underinforming’ people that “Bad things are happening to real people right now thanks in part to human-caused climate change — droughts, wildfires, flooding, extreme weather, and on and on.” I listed a perfect recent example: “my article criticizing the NYT on the bark beetle story“.

Building on what I wrote about Hansen:

We will need a WWII-style approach, but that can only happen after we get the global warming Pearl Harbor or, more likely, multiple Pearl Harbors.

Revkin then asked “What kind of wake-up call does Mr. Romm think is conceivable on a time scale relevant to near-term policy?”

My quick response is below — but I am certainly interested in your thoughts on what kind of climatic mini-catastrophes might move public and policymaker opinion over the next decade. Preferably these “mini-catastrophes” would not themselves be evidence that we had waited too long and passed the point of no return.

Here is my list — I await yours:

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Last Thursday, Don Blankenship, CEO of Massey Energy, the fourth largest United States coal company, ranted that his critics were “communists,” “atheists,” and “greeniacs.” In an address before the Tug Valley Mining Institute in Williamson, WV, Blankenship said those who criticize him are “our enemies” like Osama bin Laden:

It is as great a pleasure for me to be criticized by the communists and the atheists of the Charleston Gazette as to be applauded by my best friends. Because I know they are wrong. People are cowering away from being criticized by people that are our enemies. Would we be upset if Osama bin Laden was critical of us?

These are actually mild words for Don Blankenship, the “scariest polluter in the United States.” This spring, Blankenship was caught on tape threatening to shoot an ABC reporter and then assaulting him:

What have the “atheists” at the Charleston Gazette done that merits Blankenship comparing them to Osama bin Laden? They’ve reported on:

– The Fatal Aracoma Mine Fire. In the months before the fatal 2006 fire at the Aracoma mine, which had 25 violations of health and safety laws, Blankenship personally waived company policy and told mine managers to ignore rules and “run coal.”

– Political Corruption. Blankenship has spent millions of dollars to influence West Virginia judgeships and state legislative races, and palled around in Monte Carlo with state Supreme Court Chief Justice Elliott “Spike” Maynard and their “female friends” in July 2006. The state court reversed a $77 million verdict against Massey in 2008.

– Mountaintop Removal. Massey Energy is the king of the incredibly destructive practice of mountaintop removal mining. The Bush Administration (which includes former Massey officials) overturned Clinton-era rules limiting the practice. Massey now plans to destroy Coal River Mountain despite lacking necessary permits.

Blankenship sits on the boards of the US Chamber of Commerce and the National Mining Association, who are running multimillion-dollar campaigns to block global warming regulations and fight the Employee Free Choice Act. Blankenship claimed that global warming deniers like himself are being silenced by “greeniacs,” and called Nancy Pelosi, Al Gore, and Harry Reid “totally wrong” and “absolutely crazy“:

How many times have the people in this room heard, at the US Chamber of Commerce or at the National Mining Association, “I don’t believe in climate change, but I’m afraid to say that because it is a political reality”? The greeniacs are taking over the world.

You asked for it and you got it. Okay, you didn’t consciously ask, but you definitely wanted it. Next Monday (12/1) at noon:

Green Recovery

Introduction by:
Joseph Romm, Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress

Featured Speakers:
Governor Ed Rendell (D – PA)
Thomas Friedman, columnist, New York Times; author, Hot, Flat, and Crowded: Why We Need a Green Revolution — and How It Can Renew America

Moderated by:
Bracken Hendricks, Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress

Full info here and below:

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Now that the 2008 election finally is over, let’s go to Disney World.

I’ll explain, but first some background. The dominant theme of the long presidential campaign was change. The vote on Nov. 4 was a clear mandate for President Obama to make it happen. But what kind of change? And once we begin to define it, will we all disagree?

We need a national conversation on the topic of change, on America’s future. The conversation is sufficiently important that it should be convened by President Obama himself. In fact, along with all of the other tasks that will occupy the transition team between now and January 20, a few members of the team should be assigned to focus on our national trip to Disney World.

Here’s the idea:

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Science magazine has a major “news focus” piece (subs. req’d) arguing the peak is nigh:

Even those who believe there’s plenty of oil left in the ground to meet rising demand are warning that the final crisis could come uncomfortably soon. Although price spikes and drops may recur for years, says [IEA] economist Fatih Birol, “we think the era of cheap oil is over.”

As noted earlier, the IEA report concludes Oil price to rebound to $100 when economy recovers, then soar to $200 by 2030.

It’s getting harder and harder to find an optimist” on the outlook for the world oil supply, says Beijing-based petroleum analyst Michael Rodgers of PFC Energy, a consulting company. Indeed, the IEA report as well as one coming from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA, confusingly enough) see hints that the world’s oil production could plateau sometime about 2030 if the demand for oil continues to rise. Unless oil-consuming countries enact crash programs to slash demand, analysts say, 2030 could bring on a permanent global oil crunch that will make the recent squeeze look like a picnic.

That’s right — the IEA report thinks we won’t peak/plateua for over two decades. Needless to say, the peakists are disappointed that even the now-alarmist IEA isn’t sufficiently alarmist.

In a recent memo to fellow peakists, Robert Hirsch wrote “Many may be tempted to directly challenge the recent IEA World Energy Outlook. I am among those who were very disappointed” (see “Robert Hirsch: Peak-a-Boo, I don’t see you?“). Given the realities of rapidly depleting fields around the world and that we haven’t seen much of supply growth in the last few years, I tend to agree with Hirsch (see “Peak Oil? Bring it on!“).

Even the IEA recognizes that we need to find the equivalent of six Saudi Arabias in the next 22 years just to stave off the peak until 2030:

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