Study Halves Prediction of Rising Seas

You have got to be kidding me. Just for the record, the study doesn’t actually alter the “prediction of rising seas” in your lifetime — or your grandchildren’s lifetimes — one inch.

UPDATE:  Someone read me the print headline, which is equally dreadful (if not worse):  “Study projects seas rising by half of earlier forecasts.“  Not!

More accurate would be Reuters, “West Antarctic ice threat revised down; still dire.“  It’s a good headline because it is specific and focuses on what matters to readers.

Time‘s headline — Sea Level Rise Overestimated, But Things Still Look Grim — is not as good as Reuter’s because it drops the specificity about Antarctica (and thus creates ambiguity), but it is better than the NYT‘s, since it again focuses on the bottom line to readers.

This study is not about a projection of “sea level rise” or “rising seas” as most people understand those terms and as those terms have been widely used, which is to say, a projection of sea level rise in a time frame people care about — namely the rest of this century.  More important, most every recent study that does make such projections has sharply increased expected SLR this century compared to the 2007 IPCC “consensus” forecast, as I discuss below.

Let’s simply assert that what my father taught me — and what legions of editors know — is true:  A large fraction of people never get beyond the headline.  And even fewer get past the first paragraph.

Now if you read the Reuters lede, you’d learn something:

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It looks like U.S. carbon dioxide emissions peaked in 2007. But are we really seeing the start of an even more fundamental change in the U.S. economy, driven by the hyper-recession, team Obama and other major trends (like peak oil and global warming)?

I’m very interested in what you are seeing and hearing from your friends and neighbors as well as what you think at the macro level.

The economic downturn is forcing a return to a culture of thrift that many economists say could last well beyond the inevitable recovery.

So began a front-page NYT story this week.  With the huge recent devaluation of two key retirement assets — houses and 401ks — thrift is the word of the day and the year and maybe much longer:

I expect that the savings rate will end up at the end of this recession higher than it was going into it,” said Jonathan A. Parker, a finance professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. “It’s hard to see how it wouldn’t.”

But this isn’t just about spending less and saving more.

This is about a shift to a form of consumption that is based on renewable resources, that doesn’t destroy the planet’s livability — a sustainable economy, not a Ponzi scheme.

Here is where Obama comes in.  His stimulus package and first 100 days were the biggest push away from dirty energy in U.S. history, accelerating a massive transition to clean, safe sources of energy that never run out!  It is a key reason CO2 emissions have probably peaked.

In his big speech on science and R&D last month — “Our future on this planet depends on our willingness to address the challenge posed by carbon pollution,” vows “we will exceed [R&D] level achieved at the height of the space race.” — Obama took direct aim at a purely consumption-based economy:

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“Key Dem backs Waxman climate bill” is how Politico reported this afternoon’s big breaking news.  Boucher is

… a coal-country Democrat whose support signals the backing of industrial state Democrats in the south and Midwest.

“I intend to vote yes and I intend to encourage all other members of the committee to do the same,” Boucher said.

Boucher has acted as a key negotiator for many Democrats on the committee, who feared that the new regulations could hurt hometown industries and consumers.

It is the man who replaced Boucher as Chair of the Energy and Environment Subcommittee who said made the Boyle comparison, Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA):

Boucher’s approval rebukes the months of “conventional wisdom” that had described the global warming bill as dead, and it helps lay the groundwork for passage in both the House and Senate, Markey said. “What we have in front of us now and we will next week is the legislative Susan Boyle,” he said, referring to the British amateur singer who shocked audiences with her professional voice last month.

How big a deal is this?  Big enough to make Energy and Commerce Committee ranking member Joe humans should just ‘get shade’ Barton eat most of his words in one 12-hour news cycle:

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Our guest blogger is Frank O’Donnell, president of Clean Air Watch.

Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX), the ranking member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, today unveiled a cynical Republican alternative to the clean energy jobs legislation being developed by committee Democrats. Barton is arguing that his legislation is a “viable alternative to a mandatory cap and trade plan” that sets economy-wide standards for global warming pollution.

In reality, it’s hardly a viable alternative — only something that can be presented as one. This is basically a PR stunt aimed at conning the public to stay stuck in the same dirty energy rut that is destroying our economy and environment.

The Barton plan summary I’ve reviewed includes such choice items as:

– Repealing the Supreme Court decision which said the US EPA could limit greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act.

– Preempting state authority to reduce climate-related emissions. This is a direct attack on California and other states that have sought to avert the threat of catastrophic global warming and create green jobs.

– Providing regulatory and financial rewards to coal-burning power plants that use “currently available technology.” In other words, more dirty coal-fired plants that kill and sicken our children and grandparents.

– Providing new subsidies for hazardous nuclear power plants.

– Defines nuclear power and advanced coal technology as “renewable.”

– Repealing “decoupling” mandates that reward utilities for reducing wasted energy.

– Promoting more oil drilling off the coasts and Luntzian “environmentally sensitive American energy exploration” in the Arctic wildlife refuge.

– Subsidizing climate-killer fuels produced from coal, oil shale, methane hydrates, and tar sands.

While not quite ignoring the threat of climate change, Barton’s bill does spit in the face of science. The bill includes a provision that establishes emissions performance standards for new coal plants — but “all existing generating facilities are grandfathered.” Unsurprisingly, Barton’s proposed standards are laughably weak, onlying require coal plants to be as efficient as less-polluting natural gas plants by 2030. This proposal, combined with the incentives for new drilling, the reversal of fuel economy standards, and promotion of highly polluting alternative fuels, would guarantee that U.S. emissions would continue to increase without bound for the foreseeable future.

Barton is just blowing smoke: new subsidies for oil, coal, and nuclear, rollbacks of environmental standards, Orwellian language, and denial of the science of climate change. Wasn’t eight years of planetary and economic destruction enough?

Download the summary of the Barton dirty energy plan.

GOP plans climate bill stall in committee

The conservative stagnation is planning to spread its do-nothing mentality in next week’s Energy and Commerce Committee markup of Waxman/Markey. The Republican ring-leader in this effort is know-nothing climate denier Rep. Joe humans should just ‘get shade’ Barton, who had this to say:

I don’t have to pass a bill. But I believe I’ve got a better chance of preventing a bad bill from getting passed than he has the chance of passing the bill he wants to pass.

That’s the spirit! At least Barton is showing his and his party’s true colors. For Republicans, it seems that no ideas and no action trumps actual thinking and doing. Their stagnation will almost certainly make them a permanent minority (see here), and if they succeed in stalling climate legislation, they could badly damage our chances for salvaging a livable planet.

E&E Daily (subs. req’d) reports, “Barton would not rule out forcing Energy and Commerce Chairman Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) to read aloud the entire bill, which in draft form numbered nearly 650 pages.” …  During Senate debate over a cap-and-trade bill last summer, Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) forced clerks to read the entire measure, stalling Senate business for at least 8 hours.

Delay, delay, delay.  Modern conservatives [Note to self:  That is an oxymoron] would make Nero proud.

Here’s the whole story from Politico, rich with Barton’s candid quotes:

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Even as polluter-powered politicians have been obstructing climate legislation, the United States has been suffering devastating climate disasters, fueled by global warming. Deadly storms swept across the nation’s heartland last week, killing eight with high winds and flash floods, destroying and damaging thousands of homes, and knocking out power to hundreds of thousands of customers.

Floods caused by a rapid spring thaw in Alaska have destroyed an entire village and forced evacuations along the length of the Yukon River. Wildfires are burning in drought-ravaged California and Florida. The governors of Alaska, Missouri, West Virginia, Illinois, Kentucky, Arkansas have declared states of emergency or made disaster declarations for their ravaged states. The National Guard is being deployed in Alaska, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

ALABAMA

A tornado caused damage across two counties in north Alabama last Wednesday, causing “a path of destruction nearly 11 miles long that was up to 75 yards wide in places.”

ALASKA

A record flood of the Yukon River caused by an unusually warm spring thaw “totally destroyed” the village of Eagle. Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) declared a state of emergency on May 6. The “Weather Service still had flooding warnings in place for Stevens Village, Rampart, Tanana and Ruby as of yesterday afternoon.” Alaska Guard personnel “are being dispatched for at least 14 days with trucks carrying clean, potable water for residents in need.”

ARKANSAS

Governor Mike Beebe (D-AR) “has declared 32 Arkansas counties disaster areas from heavy rains and flooding that have hit the state over the past two weeks.” Beebe’s declaration “also authorizes $200,000 in individual assistance from the Governor’s Disaster Fund for flood victims in Clark, Dallas, Jefferson, Garland, Lonoke, Miller, Monroe, Phillips, Poinsett and Saline counties.”

CALIFORNIA

30,000 people were ordered to flee a raging Santa Barbara fire that consumed 8,700 acres, “destroyed 78 homes and damaged 22 others.” Costs totaled “more than $12.2 million.” “Global warming and other factors have led to longer fire seasons that now stretch well beyond mid-May to November.”

FLORIDA

“This year alone Florida has already had more than 2,000 wildfires that burned about 56,000 acres.” “A Martin County sheriff’s deputy was injured as wildfires burned more than 1,400 acres near Indiantown, Fla., emergency officials said.”

ILLINOIS

68,000 customers of Ameren Corp. lost power in Friday’s storm in southern Illinois. Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL) designated six southern Illinois counties “state disaster areas after last week’s deadly storms.” “Eighty-seven-year-old George Arbeiter died after a limb crashed onto his Murphysboro home and hit him on the back of his head, sending him down a flight of stairs.”

KENTUCKY

Gov. Steve Beshear (D-KY) declared an emergency in central and southeastern sections of his state Saturday. On Friday, a tornado killed two people and damaged dozens of homes and structures in the Kirksville community of Richmond in Madison County. “42-year-old Glenda Charbonnel and 35-year old Mike Yarber, died when the trailer they were in was blown into a pond.” A Gilbert firefighter “had a heart attack while providing aid to flood victims.” “More than 100 Kentucky Guard members are helping more than 10,000 citizens left without power” in seven counties.

MISSISSIPPI

“Homes and businesses in 18 counties received damage from the weekend severe weather that brought strong winds, heavy rains and flash flood warnings to much of the state,” including “about 48 homes and a dozen businesses” in Adams County.

MISSOURI

Friday’s “severe storms across southern Missouri” prompted Governor Jay Nixon (D-MO) to declare a state of emergency. “Four deaths and 12 injuries” are blamed on the storm. “Ted Agee, 61, of rural Dallas County was killed when his house was destroyed by high winds. Two other deaths happened in Poplar Bluff, when a tree fell on a car.” 150,000 utility customers lost power.

NORTH CAROLINA

Some “50,000 North Carolina residents were without power Sunday” as crews cleaned up after quick-moving thunderstorms blew through the region. “Straight-line winds as strong as 125 mph snapped trees from Scotland County to Columbus County. Damage appeared heaviest in Robeson County, where at least two homes were destroyed and seven others were damaged ” The extent of the damage “was similar to an EF-2 tornado and winds of a Category 3 hurricane.” A tornado that hit Johnston County last Tuesday “destroyed one home and damaged 18 others,” leaving behind about $1.65 million in damage.

WEST VIRGINIA

“Heavy rain and flooding Friday and Saturday” prompted Gov. Joe Manchin III (D-WV) “to declare a state of emergency in six West Virginia counties and to call up 330 members of the National Guard.” Guard members of the 111th Engineering Brigade “are helping in two of those counties — Mingo and Wyoming – where a steady rainfall combined with a recent thunderstorm has caused mudslides and flooded homes and roads,” destroying at least 300 buildings. Nearly 10,000 Appalachian Power customers in southern West Virginia were without electric service Saturday.

Lead author Anthony Costello says that failure to act will result in an intergenerational injustice, with our children and grandchildren scorning our generation for ignoring the climate change threat — with moral outrage similar to how we today look back on those who brought in and did nothing to stop slavery.

The Lancet medical journal and the University College London (UCL) Institute for Global Health have just released the final report of their year-long commission (every link you could want is here, key factoids below).  It represents one of the most definitive statements to date on the current and future health impacts of global warming.

Yet, even though this is an alarming report on the public health threat from human-caused climate change, it largely sticks with a low-ball reading of impacts from the 2007 IPCC report.  It assumes “medium-risk scenarios predicting 2-3°C rises by 2090″ while acknowledging “some leading climate scientists have raised the concern that the IPCC 2007 predictions are too conservative” and “recent observations confirm that, because of high rates of observed emissions, the worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being realised” — which would take us to 4-5°C warming by 2090 (see here).

The report makes clear that the “full impact” of climate change to human health “is not being grasped by the healthcare community or policymakers.”  [Duh!]  Indeed, the lead author, Anthony Costello, a pediatrician and director of UCL Institute for Global Health, said that “he had not realised the full ramifications of climate change on health until 18 months ago.”  Now he describes the threat as “clear and present danger” affecting “billions of people” not just polar bears and tropical forests.  The health impacts will be felt “all around the world — and not just in some distant future but in our lifetimes and those of our children.”

The report notes that “Climate change will have devastating consequences for human health from”:

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The average energy committee member opposed or wavering on the green economy legislation has received six times as much lifetime climate polluter cash as the average supporter.

It’s the golden rule of politics — whoever has the gold gives it to whoever makes the rules.  In some sense, the House Energy and Commerce Committee is the worst place to make climate legislation, since it is more conservative than the House as a whole and stacked with members who represent major, traditional (aka heavily polluting) energy interests.

Brad Johnson of Wonk Room has put together this chart of “Average lifetime contributions from the automotive, steel & chemical, oil & gas, and mining & utility sectors to members of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce and its Energy & Environment Subcommittee.”  The position of members on Waxman-Markey American Clean Energy and Security Act is taken from E&E News (see “One Hard Thing You Must Do to Save the Planet” and below).

Below is the rest of Brad’s analysis plus a Progress Report that delves into the issue further:

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