Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) has a “Probability of Yes” vote (PrY) of 22% for the climate bill, as it’s currently written (see “Who are the swing Senators?“).   That is notwithstanding his April remarks:

North Dakota is the Saudi Arabia of wind….  I’m going to keep pushing for policies in Congress that help us develop our wind resource for the benefit of the whole country.”

Hard to do more for wind than the stimulus bill did — other than pass something like the Waxman-Markey climate and clean energy bill (with a stronger renewable standard).

Dorgan has, however, now published an op-ed in The Bismarck Tribune with a headline that befits his 22% PrY, “Reduce our CO2, yes … but cap-and-trade, no,” but with contents that mostly suggest he might actually be a real fence-sitter — and a potential filibuster buster — if somebody actually explained the bill to him and worked to address his concerns.

Indeed, the sole objections he raises to the bill — the potential for Wall Street to engage in questionable derivatives tradings and speculative bubbles that might drive the price of CO2 soaring — are actually addressed in Waxman-Markey by multiple provisions (as I discuss here and reprint below).  As an important aside, it would be almost impossible to write a bill reducing CO2 emissions that would not lead to “derivatives,” which, after all, include futures contracts and options.

If you are going to create a CO2 price — really the only way of reducing CO2 other than mandatory, command-and-control, sector-based emissions regulations (which it is impossible to believe Dorgan supports) — then Wall Street is going to create futures and options to allow companies to mitigate risk.  And that’s a very good thing, as even conservative economists will tell you.

The only question is whether you design a system with checks and balances against fraudulent derivatives and speculation, which this bill does.  No doubt it could be improved, and perhaps after someone explains the bill to him — Browner, Biden, Reid, Boxer … anyone? — Dorgan will join an effort to add more oversight.

Now, you might say that Dorgan isn’t interested in a real bill, that he is just positioning himself for a “no” vote.  Well, if so, he has written a very strange op-ed.  Let me excise all the “railing against Wall Street” stuff, and see for yourself:

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How desperate is WattsUpWithThat to mislead the public about climate science? On Saturday, former TV meteorologist Watts ran a post “Flashback: Snow in Buenos Aires – first time in 89 years.”

Presumably he was doing denier pushback about the fact that NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center had reported this was the second hottest June on record globally, and easily the hottest June on record for the oceans, with further records likely to be set if the new El Ni±o continues.  But what is so laughable typical about the post is what follows:

Flashback:  More from the “weather is not climate” department.

NOTE: These are news stories about unusual July weather in Argentina from 2007 which I thought might interest readers. Please note these stories are not from 2009.

That’s right, his response to the whole friggin’ planet approaching a temperature record is a post on the weather 2 years ago over a teeny land area.

And that brought to mind an amazingly apt quote I had just read in an excellent new book by fellow science blogger, Chris Mooney, Unscientific America: How Scientific Illiteracy Threatens our Future, who has teamed up with scientist Sheril Kirshenbaum for a sequel to the bestselling. The Republican War on Science:

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Our guest blogger is Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA), chair of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, and co-author of the American Clean Energy and Security Act.

The first landing on the Moon crystallized, for all humanity, what we can do when we apply our genius, enterprise, and the spirit of exploration to extraordinary goals. Forty years ago today, America both inspired the world and made clear that she was the world’s leader in science, technology, and advanced industry when Neil Armstrong became the first person to walk on the moon.

In the midst of war abroad and turmoil at home, it was one of this Nation’s proudest moments.

We have an opportunity today to reassert America’s leadership by undertaking a mission every bit as important as sending astronauts to the Moon and returning them safely to Earth.

As with the space program, this new mission will revitalize our economy, create jobs, and spur research, development, and innovation.

Today’s challenge is to restructure our energy profile to finally become significantly less dependent on imported oil, thereby promoting our national security; to tap new, clean renewable energy sources and become much more energy efficient in our homes, businesses and factories, all of which will drive massive investment and jobs growth; and to meet the very real and dangerous threat posed by global warming pollution.

In 1969, the landing on the moon was the culmination of the space race with the Soviet Union. Once again, to meet today’s challenges, we are on the brink of a revolution in science and technology — this time focused on the imperative of a clean energy future. Today, we are engaged in a clean energy technology race with other countries. Today, it is South Korea which supplies most of the batteries for our electric cars. China is building six wind farms of 10,000 to 20,000 megawatts each, has raised its 2020 target for solar power to 20 gigawatts, and is committed to spending more than $30 billion for construction of renewable and other clean energy technology projects.

This is a race for leadership of the prime growth industry of the 21st century — and we cannot afford to run second. The American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES) of 2009 provides $190 billion in investment in new clean energy technologies and energy efficiency, clean coal technology, electric and other advanced technology vehicles, and basic scientific R&D. ACES will power our renewed leadership in clean energy.

Thanks to President Obama’s leadership, we in the House of Representatives have already taken the first firm steps on the landscape of energy independence for America and fighting global warming by our support of the American Clean Energy and Security Act.

When President Kennedy, in 1961, challenged the country to put a man on the Moon by the end of that decade, that goal seemed difficult, if not impossible, to achieve. But Congress and the American people rose to the challenge, and made the impossible, real. It took leadership, unrelenting focus, ingenuity, some minor scientific miracles, and billions of dollars, but we were willing to work and sacrifice to succeed to ensure a better future.

Consistent with the spirit that lifted Apollo 11 to the Moon, American expertise, innovation, and commitment will once again triumph. Just as we did 40 years ago, America must be the one to lead the world. I am convinced we will come together in the Congress this year to enact comprehensive clean energy legislation that will enable us to, once again, accomplish what once seemed impossible – for the betterment of our country, our people, our environment, and our future.

So far, my call is right on track:  “I predict U.S. carbon dioxide emissions peaked in 2007!”

Year-to-date, coal-fired plants contributed 46.1 percent of the Nation’s electric power.

In fact, Ken Bossong of the SUN DAY Campaign notes that in April, wind, solar, hydro, biomass and other clean energy sources that never run out hit 13% of total electrical ouput.

Coal on the slide as renewables top 11 per cent of US power mix

The renewable energy revolution under way in the US appears to be gathering pace according to new figures from the Energy Information Administration suggesting that zero carbon energy sources are successfully replacing fossil fuel-based forms of energy production.

According to the Administration’s July Electric Power Monthly report, green energy generation accounted for 11.1 per cent of total electricity production in the country between April 2008 and 2009.

Input from hydroelectric sources rose 18.4 per cent to make up seven per cent of the total, while other renewables such as solar, wind, biomass and geothermal sources now account for 4.1 per cent. Wind power was the biggest success story in the renewables sector with net generation increasing by over a third.

And the stimulus boost to renewables has barely begun (see “EIA projects wind at 5% of U.S. electricity in 2012, all renewables at 14%, thanks to Obama stimulus! Now can we get a stronger renewable standard?“  Plus, more states are taking action every day:  “Last week, for example, Kansas and West Virginia both adopted legislation for the first time that mandates the use of renewable energy.

Fish ‘shrinking due to global warming’

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OK, that headline refers to the health reform effort, not the climate bill.  But still it shows the administration knows what a full-court press is.

Health care seems to be stalling like my Dad’s old Plymouth station wagon, with moderate Senators calling for delay, which should not really be a big shock — see “The political surprise of the year: Health care reform is tougher than climate action.”

Indeed, as I noted before, the difference between the two sausage-making efforts comes down to three letters of the alphabet “” CBO.

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