“Climate researchers now predict the planet will warm by 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century even if the world’s leaders fulfill their most ambitious climate pledges, a much faster and broader scale of change than forecast just two years ago.” This analysis was conducted by the Climate Interactive project, led by climate scientist Dr. Robert Corell, the chair of the Heinz Center’s Climate Action Initiative. The researchers fed the possible commitments by the world’s nations for the global climate deal to be negotiated this December in Copenhagen, Denmark into a dynamic model that projects how the climate will respond:

We collected emissions reductions proposals in the public domain up until September, 2009 – and found that even if these were fully implemented they would be far from sufficient to meet the goal of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels at or below 350 ppm, reaching instead about 716 ppm CO2 and 944 CO2e by 2100. These proposals would not be sufficient to limit warming to 2°C over pre-industrial temperatures, creating instead approximately 3.5°C of temperature increase by 2100.

As top climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf explained at the Copenhagen Climate Change Congress in March, even limiting global warming to two degrees Centigrade above historical levels — 1.3 degrees (2.3 F) above current temperatures — isn’t as safe as Russian roulette. However, the scientists behind the analysis recognize that taking action is dramatically better than business as usual. Andrew Jones writes that this finding could also be described in a positive light — “New Analysis Shows Growing Commitment to a Global Deal Will Help Stabilize Climate“:

Following the “current proposals” path is much better than “business as usual” path. Many countries have offered concrete proposals, others (like China) are looking more encouraging, and the results add up. About 3100 gigatons of CO2e would be kept out of the atmosphere between now and the end of the century, resulting in CO2 levels 239 ppm lower and the world a full degree C cooler by 2100 (3.5 degrees C vs. 4.5).

The leaders of the world’s top economies — and greatest polluters — are now meeting in Pittsburgh for the G-20 summit. The chair of the International Panel on Climate Change, Rajendra Pachauri, and Center for American Progress president John Podesta have now made a dramatic appeal to those leaders to “reflect this imperative” that “that temperatures should not be allowed to exceed 2 degrees Celsius and that, as a consequence, global emissions must be reduced 50 percent by 2050.”

The Climate Initiative analysis provides evidence that even that target is likely insufficient to keep warming below 2 degrees Celsius. The G-20 should accept scientific reality and recognize that the goals they are now debating represent a minimal effort to stave off planetary catastrophe.

Schwarzenegger: ready to work for Obama, go green California

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is ready to put his star power to work for President Barack Obama on the environment when his own term ends next year, the former movie actor said on Thursday.

Republican Schwarzenegger is arguably the biggest environmentalist in his party and razzed Washington, which is struggling to pass climate change legislation and prepare for international talks, for wrangling with other countries over global warming goals rather than setting an example.

“Did we say China, you go first with human rights, and we will follow you? No. We led,” he said in an address at the Commonwealth Club lauding his state’s climate change plan, which is the most aggressive in the nation.

Term limits will force Schwarzenegger out of office in late 2010, and his main accomplishment may be his environmental record — sweeping efforts to change the state’s system of government and to permanently balance the budget have largely failed.

Asked if he would be willing to serve in the Obama administration, be a global ‘green’ ambassador, or even star in a TV series as governor of California after he steps down, Schwarzenegger said, “Yes to all those things.”

Clean-energy jobs touch off bidding wars between states

When Arizona economic development officials look across their state, they envision the Saudi Arabia of solar. The state has sun, land, workers and proximity to California, the biggest solar market in the U.S.

Yet for years, Arizona has failed to attract the big solar manufacturers that build the mirrors, panels and other components for solar equipment. In the past three years, about 50 renewable-energy companies considered Arizona but opted to put plants “” and jobs “” in other states, says Barry Broome, CEO of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council.

“We’ve lost every one of the projects to incentives offered by other states,” Broome says. Arizona hopes to improve its odds in what’s become a pitched battle among states to nab renewable-energy companies, including those in the solar, wind and biomass sectors. Come January, Arizona will have $350 million in new incentives at its disposal to woo renewable-energy firms.

Renewable energy has emerged as the new frontier in economic development in the U.S. And states, such as Arizona, are rolling out tax breaks, job training and cash to try to capture a piece of the action and the job growth it promises. “This is definitely the industry of the year from an economic-development standpoint,” says William Becker, CEO of Incentives Advisors, which helps firms access and manage state incentives. “I’ve never seen such a rapid increase in the number of state programs for one industry.”

The fervor is driven by expectations of increasing demand for renewable energy. States, especially California, are extending big incentives to consumers and businesses to go green. Two dozen states require electricity providers to supply more power from renewables, and a handful of other states have set renewable goals. Meanwhile, billions of dollars in venture capital is going to so-called clean-tech start-ups in everything from alternative fuels to energy storage and generation. The federal government has also dedicated more than $100 billion to the clean-tech industry via grants, loan guarantees and other incentives, says consulting firm Ernst & Young.

Vietnam Finds Itself Vulnerable if Sea Rises

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A repost from Wonk Room.

This Tuesday, as President Barack Obama and other world leaders addressed the United Nations on the need to tackle global warming, some entrepreneurs hoped to demonstrate their own solution. Notably, this solution allows humanity “” at least those who are sufficiently wealthy “” to completely ignore climate change. The Yes Men displayed SurvivaBalls, self-contained survival suits impervious to the ravages of global warming, on the banks of the East River:

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ZACKENBERG RESEARCH STATION, GREENLAND“”Claiming it to be one of the most dramatic and visible signs of climate change to date, researchers said Monday that receding polar ice caps have revealed nearly 200 clandestine lairs once buried deep beneath hundreds of feet of Arctic ice.

“We always assumed there would be some secret lairs here and there, but the sheer number now being exposed is indeed troubling,” said noted climatologist Anders Lorenzen, who claimed that the Arctic ice caps have shrunk at the alarming rate of 41,000 square miles per year. “In August alone we discovered 44 mad scientist laboratories, three highly classified military compounds, and seven reanimated and very confused cavemen. That’s more than twice the number we had found in the previous three decades combined.”

“This is no longer conjecture,” Lorenzen added. “This is a full-blown crisis.”

According to oceanographers, the Arctic Circle has been devastated by the effects of global warming in recent years, threatening hundreds of men and women who use the frozen tundra as a place to conduct bizarre experiments in human-animal grafting, carry out massive government cover-ups, or simply as a hidden headquarters from which to battle the forces of evil and fight crime.

“Last week a giant ice sheet broke off and split my prized underground complex nearly in half,” said Dr. Raygun, a self-described psychotic mastermind best known for his diabolical thought-control experiments. “Now millions of dollars in state-of-the-art doomsday devices are gone””all because of the environmental carnage wrought by the human race.”

“You spend your whole career concocting a brilliant scheme to wipe out all of mankind, and what happens?” Dr. Raygun continued. “They bring about a major global catastrophe completely on their own, those fools!”

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This is a Wonk Room repost.  WR has been reporting from the Clinton Global Initiative conference this week.

Earlier this year, the American Society for Civil Engineers roundly panned America’s disintegrating infrastructure, giving it an overall D grade and estimating that “it would take a $2.2 trillion investment “¦ over the next five years to bring it into a state of good repair.” One of today’s discussions at the Clinton Global Initiative focused on how to develop infrastructure in both the U.S. and the rest of the world, and the role that government plays in such development.

General Electric CEO Jeffrey Immelt “” who has been critical of the business community for investing too much money in preserving America’s status quo “” noted that successful infrastructure improvements, particularly in creating the capacity for clean energy, means coordinating government standards with private investment:

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