Must-read NCAR analysis warns we risk multiple, devastating global droughts even on moderate emissions path

Extended drought and Dust-Bowlification over large swaths of the habited Earth may be the most dangerous impact of unrestricted greenhouse gas emissions, as I’ve discussed many times (see Intro to global warming impacts: Hell and High Water).

That’s especially true since such impacts could well last centuries, whereas the actual Dust Bowl itself only lasted seven to ten years — see NOAA stunner: Climate change “largely irreversible for 1000 years,” with permanent Dust Bowls in Southwest and around the globe.

A must-read new study from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, “Drought under global warming: a review,” is the best review and analysis on the subject I’ve seen.  It spells out for the lukewarmers and the delayers just what we risk if we continue to listen to the Siren song of “more energy R&D plus adapatation.”

The NCAR study is the source of the top figure (click to enlarge), which shows that in a half century, much of the United States (and large parts of the rest of the world) could experience devastating levels of drought — far worse than the 1930s Dust Bowl, especially since the conditions would only get worse and worse and worse and worse, while potentially affecting 10 to 100 times as many people.  And this study merely models the IPCC’s “moderate” A1B scenario — atmospheric concentrations of CO2 around 520 ppm in 2050 and 700 in 2100.  We’re currently on the A1F1 pathway, which would takes us to 1000 ppm by century’s end, but I’m sure with an aggressive program of energy R&D we could keep that to, say 900 ppm.

Indeed, the study itself notes that it has ignored well understood climate impacts that could worsen the situation:

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“Glenn Beck and a monkey”

TPM has a great post (and the above separated-at-birth photos) on Beck’s latest anti-science rant.  Evolution, as you know, was discredited by the Piltdown Man hoax, and “It’s like global warming.”  This clip from his radio show is evidence that perhaps he’s right, at least in his case — evolution is no longer operative, and we are regressing:

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I have great respect for Scientific American and have even published a couple of articles in it in my career.  So it was quite disappointing to see this pop-up when I visited ScientificAmerican.com yesterday from two different computers:

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This Wonk Room cross post is by CAP’s Richard Caperton and Rebecca Lefton.

Congress may be stalling on clean energy and climate reform, but states are not waiting for the federal government to capture the economic and job benefits of the clean energy economy. Government leaders are racing ahead at the state level with clean-energy and climate policies to lessen dependence on dirty fossil fuels, provide safe and reliable sources of energy, and -especially vital in today’s economy””create jobs. Already, 35 states and Washington, DC, have renewable energy standard policies in place, which set targets for how much of a utility’s electricity sales must come from renewable power sources. Thirty of these standards are mandatory, while the remaining six are less-stringent goals.

Our analysis of the current renewable energy programs underway across states finds that meeting these targets will create more than 2 million jobs.  But the upcoming elections may slam the brakes on these new clean energy jobs.

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Investors want TLC: Transparency, Longevity, and Certainty.

By CAP’s Jorge Madrid.

This week, a group of 68 investors with assets totaling $415 billion, held a press conference urging Californians to vote NO on Proposition 23 — the November ballot initiative that would halt implementation of the state’s landmark clean energy law AB 32.

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Scientists studying Caribbean reefs say that 2010 may be the worst year ever for coral death there. Abnormally warm water since June appears to have dealt a blow to shallow and deep-sea corals that is likely to top the devastation of 2005, when 80% of corals were bleached and as many as 40% died in areas on the eastern side of the Caribbean.

So Eli Kintisch reports at Science online.  He explains:

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Our guest bloggers are the Center for American Progress Action Fund’s Richard Caperton, Policy Analyst, and Rebecca Lefton, Researcher with Progressive Media.

Congress may be stalling on clean energy and climate reform, but states are not waiting for the federal government to capture the economic and job benefits of the clean energy economy. Government leaders are racing ahead at the state level with clean-energy and climate policies to lessen dependence on dirty fossil fuels, provide safe and reliable sources of energy, and –especially vital in today’s economy—create jobs. Already, 35 states and Washington, DC, have renewable energy standard policies in place, which set targets for how much of a utility’s electricity sales must come from renewable power sources. Thirty of these standards are mandatory, while the remaining six are less-stringent goals. Our analysis of the current renewable energy programs underway across states finds that meeting these targets will create more than 2 million jobs.

But the upcoming elections may slam the brakes on these new clean energy jobs. As Brad Johnson has reported, there are key gubernatorial, Senate, and House races in which conservative candidates have challenged renewable energy standards or deny the reality of global warming. The potential to create jobs through existing RES policies is most immediately at risk in three tight governors’ races: Maryland, Ohio, and Illinois. In those states, Republican candidates have made it clear they don’t support such policies. In three more states, Kansas, Minnesota and Oklahoma, candidates professing themselves to be highly skeptical of the existence of global warming – and the corresponding need to pass policies to move to a lower-carbon future — may come out ahead in November. In each of these states, ending the RES would prevent the state from creating thousands of construction and manufacturing jobs and hundreds of permanent operations and maintenance jobs. In the six states with the most at-risk renewable energy standards, more than 445,000 construction-phase jobs (full-time equivalent, for one year) are at stake, as are more than 6,000 permanent jobs. The results for the six states we’ve identified are below:

In Ohio, for example, candidate John Kasich (R) has promised to overturn the state’s 2008 renewable energy law requiring 25 percent of the state’s electricity to come from renewable sources by 2025. Governor Ted Strickland, in contrast, recognizes the benefits of building a clean energy economy and is proposing to ramp up clean energy policies to help renewable industries to revitalize manufacturing as a driver of economic growth and jobs. “As Ohio residents and businesses are fighting hard to recover from the crippling Wall Street recession, we must give promising companies every reason to develop and invest in Ohio as quickly as possible,” said Strickland.

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In 2006, Koch Industries owner Charles Koch revealed to the Wall Street Journal‘s Stephen Moore that he coordinates the funding of the conservative infrastructure of front groups, political campaigns, think tanks, media outlets and other anti-government efforts through a twice annual meeting of wealthy right-wing donors. He also confided to Moore, who is funded through several of Koch’s ventures, that his true goal is to strengthen the “culture of prosperity” by eliminating “90%” of all laws and government regulations.

Although it is difficult to quantify the exact amount Koch alone has funneled to right-wing fronts, some studies have pointed toward $50 million he has given alone to anti-environmental groups. Recently, fronts funded by Charles and his brother David have received scrutiny because they have played a pivotal role in the organizing of the anti-Obama Tea Parties and the promotion of virulent far right lawmakers like Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). (David Koch praised DeMint and gave him a “Washington Award” shortly after the senator promised to “break” Obama by making health reform his “Waterloo.”)

In this must-read cross post, TP’s Lee Fang details how Big Oil and the leading funders of anti-science disinformation are trying to buy a pollution-friendly government.

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New Floating Wind Turbines to Make Wind Energy Cheaper More Reliable?

Floating wind turbines are a little more complicated and require higher initial costs. But a new study, Project Deepwater, by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI) in the UK has found that due to their greater ability to access stronger and more consistent winds deeper out at sea, they are more economically efficient in the long term.

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CAP’s Rebecca Lefton and Noreen Nielsen wrote this cross-post.

Big Oil and its special interest allies have spent more than $68.5 million combined since the beginning of 2010 on misleading and fictitious televisions ads designed to shape midterm elections and advance their anti-clean energy reform agenda. The stakes for our clean energy future are high as pro-oil and coal groups spend more and more and climate-denying candidates run against climate champions in tight races.

Click on the arrows to scroll through the different groups and find out more about where they are spending on television ads to prevent progress on clean energy and climate legislation.

Energy Advertising Spending:
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Brad Johnson wrote this Wonk Room cross post. Here is his full governor-race compilation.

The Western Climate Initiative “” a regional cap-and-trade compact between California, New Mexico, Utah, Arizona, Washington, Oregon, Montana and four Canadian provinces “” was established in 2007 and scheduled to go into effect in 2012. There are governors’ races in all the states except Montana and Washington. Republican governors in Arizona and Utah “” who are cruising to re-election this fall “” have already worked to scuttle their involvement. California’s contribution, the legislation known as AB 32, is under threat both from the Proposition 23 ballot initiative and from Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman. The future of the compact rides on the governors’ races this November in California, New Mexico, and Oregon:

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