Anti-science long-range forecasts can cost people billions of dollars
Accuweather’s “expert long-range forecaster” Joe Bastardi has apparently issued some sort of a challenge to his critics. Let’s see if he has the nerve to back up his unscientific claims with two real bets, which I will lay out below. He ought to, given that if any of the industries who rely on such long-term forecast actually believed Bastardi, they could lose millions of dollars.
According to a National Review Online piece, “Bastardi’s Wager: A meteorologist has a challenge for climate scientists“:
Bastardi is in a position to change the conversation. He’s a meteorologist and forecaster with AccuWeather, and he proposes a wager of sorts. “The scientific approach is you see the other argument, you put forward predictions about where things are going to go, and you test them,” he says. “That is what I have done. I have said the earth will cool .1 to .2 Celsius in the next ten years, according to objective satellite data.” Bastardi’s challenge to his critics “” who are legion “” is to make their own predictions. And then wait. Climate science, he adds, “is just a big weather forecast.”
… Bastardi has done the thing that could make or break his credibility “” offer a way to test his theory. We’ll see if his critics, so certain of the authoritative consensus on global warming, do the same.
I think it is safe to say that I am one of Bastardi’s biggest critics (see links below). But I’m not merely going to offer my predictions. I’m going to propose two bets to see if Bastardi will put his money where his mouth is, as they say. If he won’t, then I think we can safely say his predictions are just what the critics say — anti-scientific BS, just so much bluster and hot air.