Climate Change Endangers Food Security Worldwide

“Extreme weather like the droughts in Russia, China and Brazil and the flooding in Pakistan and Australia [in 2010] have contributed to a level of food price volatility we haven’t seen since the oil crisisof 40 years ago. Unfortunately, this could be just a taste of things to come because in the next few  decades the build-up of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere could greatly increase the risk of  droughts, flooding, pest infestation and water scarcity for agriculture systems already under  tremendous stress.”   — John Beddington, UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser (March, 2011)

Already, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization estimates 1 billion people are starving and another 2.5 billion are malnourished.

“Feeding some 9 billion people by mid-century in the face of a rapidly worsening climate may well be the greatest challenge the human race has ever faced,” as I argued in the journal Nature.  Oxfam has been one of the leaders in making this case (see Oxfam Predicts Climate Change will Help Double Food Prices by 2030: “We Are Turning Abundance into Scarcity”).

On the eve of the international climate talks in Durban, Oxfam has released a new report that opens with Beddington’s quote and warns:

Climate change is likely to have a pernicious effect on food production in two main ways.  Firstly, slow onset changes in mean temperatures and precipitation patterns are expected to put downward pressure on average yields.  Added to this will be crop losses resulting from more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Research to date has focused almost exclusively on the first impact, modeling the extent of long-run average price rises in the absence of volatility….

But this paints only a partial picture.  More frequent and extreme weather events will compound things further, creating shortages, destabilizing markets and precipitating price spikes, which will be felt on top of the structural price rises predicted by the models.  One need not rely on imagination to understand how this could play out for the world’s poorest people.  Looking at the toll extreme weather events are taking on global food security since 2010 alone paints an alarming picture.

The whole report is worth reading, but here is their summary along with recommendations for Durban:

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A deal to sell tar sands oil in Europe would outweigh any good the UK might do with all its other climate change measures

– by Bill McKibben, first published in the UK Guardian

The EU has provisionally imposed penalties severe enough to make it difficult for Canada to sell tar sands oil in Europe, but Britain is working to undermine that stance. Photograph: Jeff Mcintosh/AP

Conservatives who attack climate science are becoming increasingly shrill and ideological, as the mountains of evidence that burning fossil fuels is disrupting the climate grow. In Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal, Bret Stephens declares the global warming “religion” to be dead:

So what to make of the U.N.’s latest supposedly authoritative report on extreme weather events, which is tinged with admissions of doubt and uncertainty? Oddly, the report has left climate activists stuttering with rage at what they call its “watered down” predictions. If nothing else, they understand that any belief system, particularly ones as young as global warming, cannot easily survive more than a few ounces of self-doubt.

Meanwhile, the world marches on. On Sunday, 2,232 days will have elapsed since a category 3 hurricane made landfall in the U.S., the longest period in more than a century that the U.S. has been spared a devastating storm. Great religions are wise enough to avoid marking down the exact date when the world comes to an end. Not so for the foolish religions.

Other conservative pundits piled on, loving Stephens’ anti-science rant. “The warm has turned,” adds the Daily Caller’s Sean Medlock, who goes by the pseudonym Jim Treacher. “Buh-bye, global warming. Say hello to the Ptolemaic system for us!” The Daily Mail’s Don Surber, calls climate science “phrenology.” Climate science is a “substitute religion,” argues PJ Media’s Ed Driscoll.

These zealots are not only ignoring the incontrovertible warming of the planet, they are dismissing the catastrophic weather that has caused billions in damage and suffering for millions of Americans in the last six years:

In 2011 alone, there has been the freak Alaska hurricane-strength storm, the freak Snowtober storm, the extremely destructive Hurricane Irene, freak storms in Illinois and Iowa, historic flooding from Tropical Storm Lee, killer storms in Indiana, record rainfall in New York and Montana, and the horrifying tornado outbreak in the Southeast. So far there have been 14 different billion-dollar weather disasters in the United States this year.

Oddly, Stephens did not mention that News Corp, the Wall Street Journal’s owner, is working to fight climate change and reduce its carbon footprint.

Speaking at a South Carolina town hall today, Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich falsely claimed Environmental Protection Agency is trying to regulate agricultural dust. Calling the EPA a collection of “left-wingers trying to use the power of the government to reshape the whole economy on their terms,” Gingrich spun a tale of EPA bureaucrats going after Iowa farmers for the dust kicked up on dirt roads:

You have these people from the EPA saying, “You don’t understand! This is particulate matter! Here it is on page whatever of the Clean Air Act!“

Watch it:

“I can’t make these things up,” Gingrich concluded.

In reality, agricultural dust pollution is no joking matter. The Bush administration issued emissions monitoring guidelines for dust kicked up from poorly maintained rural roads. Industrial agribusiness in California puts up tens of thousands of tons of particulate matter every year. Regulations on particulate matter have been issued under the Reagan, Clinton, and Bush administrations. The “dust” Gingrich jokes about has been found to cause hospital admissions for heart disease, hospital admissions and doctors’ visits for respiratory diseases, increased respiratory symptoms in children, and premature death in people with heart or lung disease.

Despite the health threat from the tons of toxic dust produced by industrial agribusiness, there are no federal regulations protecting agricultural workers. Only two states, California and Arizona, have rules on farm dust. Although “farm dust regulation” is a popular Republican talking point, EPA administrator Lisa Jackson has repeatedly affirmed that her agency has no plans to issue a farm dust rule.

This Saturday’s Crankshaft cartoon took on global warming, noting that climate change is threatening Ohio’s iconic buckeye trees, the namesake of the Ohio State Buckeyes. “Once it starts to affect football, they’ll get moving on climate change,” one character says:

As greenhouse pollution from oil and coal continues to build, the Ohio buckeye (Aesculus glabra) is on its way out of the Buckeye State. Between 1990 and 2006, United States hardiness zones shifted northward, putting Ohio closer to the southern end of buckeye viability. That trend will accelerate. A 2007 study by Daniel W. McKenney and other forest scientists of the effect of climate pollution increases on 130 tree species projects major changes in North American tree populations, as practically all of the southern and western United States grow too warm and arid for nearly all species. The Ohio buckeye’s range, now centered on Ohio and Indiana, is projected to shrink and shift drastically under business-as-usual scenarios:

Ohio buckeye range, 1971-2000 (Green marks core 5-95% range)	Projected Ohio buckeye range, 2071-2100 (NCARccsm3 A1B scenario)

Importantly, the destruction of the Ohio buckeye’s traditional range is not just a long-term phenomenon. Several of the scenarios modeled by the researchers find major shifts during the 2011-2040 period.

A simpler 2005 study that modeled the expected shift in range over 100 years due to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations found that the Ohio buckeye range would decline by 12 to 51 percent this century. At current rates, carbon dioxide concentrations are on track to quadruple.

The European Union, long the global leader in offshore wind, will likely stay that way for the next decade — even with the fast-growing wind market in China catching up.

That’s according to new figures released by Europe’s wind trade group, the European Wind Energy Association. In a report issued earlier this month, EWEA projects that the European offshore wind market will grow from 3.9 gigawatts of capacity today to 40 gigawatts of capacity, generating roughly 148 terawatt-hours of energy annually — or about 4% of Europe’s electricity demand. By 2030, cumulative installation levels could reach about 150 GW — enough capacity to generate roughly 14% of European demand.

That compares to the 30 GW of capacity expected for China’s offshore wind market by 2020, as projected by the Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association.

Assuming these projections are accurate, the employment numbers could be substantial. EWEA estimates that 40% of jobs in the European wind industry will be offshore by 2020, accounting for just under 170,000 jobs. And if recent growth is anything to judge by, a major boom in offshore projects through the next two decades is very likely.

Like many other energy sectors, the offshore wind industry was slowed by the global economic malaise and subsequent European Debt Crisis. But even during three years of economic troubles, offshore wind projects have grown substantially, from 318 MW in 2007 to 883 MW in 2010. Offshore installations are expected to reach roughly a gigawatt this year.

That doesn’t mean the sector is completely dry yet. The evolving debt crisis is may create yet another bottleneck into 2012 and 2013, says Christian Kjaer, the CEO of EWEA:

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President Obama has been criticized heavily for not doing enough to stand up to the vicious blitz on climate science. He’s also being attacked aggressively on the right for using his presidential powers to act on environmental issues outside of Congress.

So where does he stand? For those who’ve seen the words “climate change” disappear almost entirely from the President’s lips, he’s been a huge disappointment — even a failure, as Climate Progress editor Joe Romm wrote after the collapse of a comprehensive climate bill. And moving into this week’s climate talks in Durban, the lack of action in the U.S. has substantially reduced the country’s credibility.

But Carol Browner, Obama’s former “Climate Czar” who worked within the Administration to get a climate bill passed, believes the President’s record will be judged on his full range of initiatives, including what he’s been able to do outside of the deeply-dysfunctional Congress.

In an interview on the Climate Progress podcast, Browner shares her perspective on Obama’s environmental record. She points to initiatives like greenhouse gas standards for cars, power plants and oil refineries; clean energy investments from the Recovery Act; and mercury standards from power plants — all being developed during a time of deep hostility to any sort of environmental regulation.

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by Catherine Woodiwiss

Just before Monday’s opening of the 17^th UN Climate Change Conference in Durban, South Africa, Pope Benedict XVI issued a plea for solidarity among international leaders to reach a responsible deal in Durban and account for the needs of the poorest communities and future generations.  From the Vatican, Pope Benedict – dubbed the “Green Pope” for his commitment to environmental concerns – urged conference delegates to “reach agreement on a responsible, credible response” to the “complex” and “disturbing” effects of climate change.

His charge came the same day as a letter published by the Southern African Catholic Bishops Conference, which affirmed the “general consensus that human activities make [climate change] happen much faster” and underscored the threat of climate change to “our beloved world and the entire creation that God has given us.” This letter launched the Bishops’ appeal to the government of South Africa to support resolutions that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, require countries with higher levels of emissions to fund programs aimed at helping developing countries to lower their emissions, and commit to the production of renewable energy.

Faith groups from around the world have registered their concerns over the disastrous effects of climate change and the rising risk to the world’s most vulnerable people. The African group “We Have Faith – Act Now for Climate Justice” organized a highly-publicized pre-summit rally in Durban on Sunday, with religious leaders, musical guests, and celebrities in attendance. Nearly 2,000 rally attendees presented a global petition to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres, who accepted the document on behalf of the 17^th Conference of Parties (COP17) with tears in her eyes. “We have heard your voice and your prayers,” Figueres said of the petition, which calls for “neighbours to treat the earth with respect, resist disorder, (and) live in peace with each other including embracing a legally binding climate change treaty.”

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In 2009, President Barack Obama called for an end to global subsidies for fossil fuel, but little progress has been made. In South Africa, the home to this year’s international climate negotiations, coal power continues to be subsidized by the international community. In 2010, the World Bank gave a $3.75 billion loan to South Africa’s Eskom utility to build one of the world’s largest coal-fired power plants — the 4.8 gigawatt Medupi coal plant. In May, the U.S. Export-Import Bank approved a $805 million loan for the 4.8 gigawatt Kusile coal project. The Sierra Club explains how these coal plants actually make life worse for South Africa’s working families:

This enormous plant was financed despite the fact that it will be built in an area that already exceeds dangerous levels of air pollution.

Perhaps the most troublesome aspect of these projects is the tremendous financial burden they pose to average South Africans. Large industrial users, who will secure the majority of the supply, have locked in Apartheid-era sweet heart deals that ensure the lowest electricity prices in the world, meaning the state-owned utility Eskom has no choice but to recoup the investment from average ratepayers.

In order to pay for Kusile, Eskom will seek an additional 25% rate increase on top of electricity prices that have already gone up 137% (mostly to finance Medupi). These skyrocketing rates are forcing poor households off the grid while doing nothing to provide electricity access to the 25% of South Africans who aren’t connected to the grid at all.

South Africa is the biggest carbon polluter in the entire continent of Africa, fueled by massive coal reserves. The dirty power has not led to broad prosperity, however. The nation has terrible income inequality, with a Gini index of 67 percent. The international subsidies for these mega-coal plants are only making the situation worse.

Sadly, these deadly investments are ignored by energy reporters, who instead follow the lead of fossil-funded politicians to explore the “scandals” of much smaller investments in clean energy projects.

For 17 years, the Hendra virus smoldered in its host bat population, only rarely crossing to humans. Then it exploded, likely triggered by heavy rains and floods in Australia earlier this year. And that has public health doctors nervous about climate change.

by Nancy Bazilchuk, cross-posted from the Daily Climate

It started with Vic Rail’s horses, in September 1994. First one, then another, they died horrible deaths, 13 horses in all over the span of just two weeks, frothing from their noses and mouths, thrashing in agonizing pain. Then Rail died too.

Weeks later Australian officials isolated a newly discovered virus they ultimately named Hendra, after the Brisbane suburb where Rail and his horses died. For 17 years, Hendra virus smoldered in its host population of fruit bats killing nearly 50 horses and claiming three more human lives.

Then in May, something happened.

It was as if Hendra virus awoke from a slumber and roared fully into life. There have been more outbreaks of Hendra in 2011 – 18 at last count – than in the 16 previous years.

Veterinary epidemiologists hunting the virus now know definitively that Australia’s fruit bats (Pteropus sp.), also called flying foxes, spread the disease to horses, which then can infect humans. And while they don’t know the exact cause of the huge escalation in outbreaks, they strongly suspect it has something to do with the heavy rainfall and big floods that drowned northeastern Australia from November 2010 to February 2011.

And that has them looking nervously at climate change.

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World Meteorological Organization: 2011 ‘caps decade tying record for heat’

The year 2011 caps a decade that ties the record as the hottest ever measured, the WMO said in its annual report on climate trends and extreme weather events, unveiled at UN climate talks in Durban, South Africa.

“Our science is solid and it proves unequivocally that the world is warming and that this warming is due to human activities,” WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said in a statement, adding that policy-makers should take note of the findings.

“Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached new highs and are very rapidly approaching levels consistent with a 2 to 2.4 Celsius rise in average global temperatures.”

Scientists believe that any rise above the 2.0 threshold could trigger far-reaching and irreversible changes on Earth over land and in the seas.

The 2002-2011 period equals 2001-2010 as the warmest decade since 1850, the report said.

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